Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Conditional Analysis and Rare Events Logistics Regression: A Case-Study in the Antrodoco Area (Rieti, Italy)

This paper discusses some methodological aspects for the production of susceptibility maps of slope instability developed within the CARG Project (Geological Cartography of Italy at 1:50,000 scale). It describes an example of a susceptibility map in the presence of low susceptibility, using database having zero or negligible cost, with the aim to test some methodologies that can be easily reproducible to get a first estimate of the landslide susceptibility on a wide area. Two statistical approaches have been applied: the non-parametric conditional analysis and the logistic analysis for rare events. The predictive ability obtained from the two methodologies, was evaluated by the success-prediction curves for the conditional analysis, and by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC), for the logistic model. The landslide susceptibility maps have been classified into four classes using both the Natural Breaks algorithm and the method proposed by Chung and Fabbri (2003). The paper considers the influence of these two classification methods on the quality of final results.

Analysis of the Conditional Correlations from Different Genetic Systems Between the Protein Content and the Appearance Quality Traits of Indica Rice

A factorial mating design in two environments was conducted using 7 cytoplasmic male sterile lines （A） and 5 restorer lines （R） along with their F1 （A × R） and F2 populations. The unconditional and conditional analyses of genetic models and the corresponding statistic methods, including endospermic, cytoplasmic, and maternal plant genetic systems, were used to analyze the genetic relationships between protein content （PC） and the appearance quality traits of indica rice （Oryza sativa L.）. The results from unconditional analysis indicated that PC was significantly correlated with the appearance quality traits of rice, except for the brown rice thickness （BRT）. Only the genetic covariance between PC and the brown rice width （BRW） was positively correlative, whereas all the other pairwise traits were negatively correlative. The results from conditional analysis revealed that the weight of brown rice （WBR） or the amylose content （AC） could significantly affect the relationships between PC and the appearance quality traits of indica rice. The conditional analysis showed that WBR might negatively affect the relationships between PC and the brown rice length （BRL）, BRW, or BRT through the geuotype x environmental （GE） interaction effects, but positively affected the relationships between PC and the ratio of brown rice length to width （RLW） or the ratio of brown rice length to thickness （RLT）. The amylase content could positively affect the relationships between PC and BRL, RLW, RLT through the cytoplasmic effects and maternal additive effects, but negatively affected the relationships between PC and BRW.

Analysis on Agricultural Meteorological Condition of Osmanthus Blooming

Osmanthus, an ornamental plants, is favored by people, and forecast of Osmanthus florescence is of vital significance for enjoying the sight. Based on 15 years of flowering observation data, analysis was made on agricultural meteorologi- cal conditions of Osmanthus in Guilin and the results showed that ground tempera- ture, humidity, precipitation, sunshine have significant effects on Osmanthus flores- cence. In forecasting florescence, therefore, it is necessary to take comprehensive consideration of weather conditions and changes in the future, to release Osman- thus flowering forecast as per method of combination of long-term forecasting and short-term forecast.

Axisymmetric Powell-Eyring fluid flow with convective boundary condition: optimal analysis

The effects of axisymmetric flow of a Powell-Eyring fluid over an impermeable radially stretching surface are presented. Characteristics of the heat transfer process are analyzed with a more realistic condition named the convective boundary condition. Governing equations for the flow problem are derived by the boundary layer approximations. The modeled highly coupled partial differential system is converted into a system of ordinary differential equations with acceptable similarity transformations. The convergent series solutions for the resulting system are constructed and analyzed. Optimal values are obtained and presented in a numerical form using an optimal homotopy analysis method （OHAM）. The rheological characteristics of different parameters of the velocity and temperature profiles are presented graphically. Tabular variations of the skin friction coefficient and the Nusselt number are also calculated. It is observed that the temperature distribution shows opposite behavior for Prandtl and Biot numbers. Furthermore, the rate of heating/cooling is higher for both the Prandtl and Biot numbers.

Longitudinal genetic analysis of growth-related traits in red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Girard)

The red swamp crayfish,Procambarus clarkii,is an economically important species especially in China.Their exoskeleton places serious constraints on growth and culture management.Their growth is achieved through intermittent molting/ecdysis.The longitudinal genetic dynamics for growth-related traits at different ecdysial points in P.clarkii has been unclear to date.In this study,conditional genetic analysis was carried out for growth-related traits(body weight,body length,chela length,and cephalothorax length)based upon a mixed genetic model with conditional additive,dominance,and genotype by environment effects in P.clarkii.A complete diallel cross was made among three geographic populations of P.clarkii for the genetic mating design.Results of the conditional genetic analysis showed that from 4 th molt to 9 th molt the conditional additive variations were increased significantly whereas the conditional non-additive genetic variations(dominance and genotype by environment interaction)were decreased significantly for these growth-related traits.This indicated that lots of new expression of additive effect genes for body weight,body length,chela length,and cephalothorax length occurred during ontogeny,and environment played a signifi cant role in the expression of genes affecting these growth-related traits.Growth of the four traits was mainly affected by non-additive genetic effects in early developmental stage(prior to 4 th molt).The cumulative conditional additive variation for the growth-related traits from 4 th molt to 9 th molt accounted for a large majority of the total conditional additive variations from 2 nd molt to 9 th molt,indicating that this period was very important for the growth of this species.Using the conditional analysis method,dynamics of growth-related traits during an important ontogenetic phase of red swamp crayfish was uncovered.Our results provide valuable insights into refining production of this species.

Association of neuroelectrophysiology and analysis of cerebrospinal fluid immunoglobulin with pathogenetic conditions of patients with Guillain-Barre syndrome

BACKGROUND： Guillain-Barre syndrome （GBS） is an autoimmune disease which is characterized by demyelination of peripheral nerve and nerve root, and inflammatory reaction of lymphocyte and macrophage. Neuroelectrophysiological examination and cerebrospinal fluid （CSF） analysis are of significance for its diagnosis. OBJECTIVE： To study the association of neuroelectrophysiology and cerebrospinal fluid immunoglobulin （CSF-lg） with pathogenetic conditions of patients with GBS. DESIGN： Case control study SETTING： Department of Neurology, Shenzhen Municipal Shekou Group Hospital; Department of Neuroelectrophysiology, People＇s Hospital of Guangdong Province. PARTICIPANTS： A total of 32 GBS patients including 18 males and 14 females who aged from 17 to 72 years were selected as experimental group from the Department of Neurology, People＇s Hospital of Guang- dong Province from January 2004 to December 2005. All cases conformed with GBS diagnostic criteria established by Asbury in 1990 and they were divided into three types according to neurological criteria established by Chinese Neurology and Psychology Journal in 1993： mild, moderate and severe types. Another 30 patients with vascular headache were selected as control group from the same hospital including 14 males and 16 females who aged from 17 to 79 years. METHODS： ① Neuroelectrophysiological examination： Multiple-functional electromyography device provided by Nicolet Company, USA was used to measure nerve conduction velocity （NCV）, including motor nerve conduction velocity （MCV） and sensory nerve conduction velocity （SCV）; meanwhile, electromyologram （EMG）, somatosensory evoked potential （SEP） and electroencephalogram （EEG） were also measured. ② Detection of CSF-lg： Concentrations of IgG, IgA and IgM were measured with immunofixation electrophoresis. ③Follow-up： Among 32 GBS patients, 14 cases received follow-up after treatment and the longest fol- low-up time was 1 year after onset. Among them, 8 cases were reexaminined with neuroelectrophysiological and CSF examinations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES： Results of NCV, EMG, SEP and EEG; comparison of CSF-lg content; results of follow-up examinations. RESULTS： All 32 GBS cases and 30 patients with vascular headache were involved in the final analysis. ① Abnormal rate of neuroelectrophysiological test： 75% of NCV, 88% of F-wave, 53% of MCV, 25% of SEP, 47% of EMG and 31% of EEG. There were no significant differences among various types （P 〉 0.05）. ② Results of CSF-lg test： There were no significant differences among various types （P 〉 0.05）; however, abnormalities in experimental group was higher than those in control group （P 〈 0.01）. CONCLUSION ： Results of follow-up study suggest that improvement of clinical symptom is earlier than neuroelectrophysiological recovery; MCV and EMG recoveries are faster than that of NCV; the earlier the abnormality of EMG, the poorer the recovery. CSF4g recovers normally along improvement of clinical symptoms. It is of significance for neuroelectrophysiology and abnormality of CSF-Ig to determine degree of peripheral nerve demyelination and prognosis.

The Analysis on Comparison of Forming Condition with Abroad Palaeo-Epicontinental Marine Basin and Possibility of Potash Formation in North China

1 Introduction Currently,all six different continents have discovered potash deposits and potash-bearing salt lake saline water.However,the distribution is extremely uneven,which is mostly concentrated in Canada,Russia,Middle-Asia and

Heterosis Study on Developmental Behavior of Flowering and Boll Setting in Upland Cotton

The developmental behavior was examined for flowering and boll setting in upland cotton （Gossypium hirsutum L.） at different boll-setting sites and blooming periods. Conventional and conditional methods were applied to analyze heterosis by an additive-dominance model with genotype by environment （GE） interaction effects. Positive general heterosis was significantly detected on middle-lower nodes at positions 1 and 2 for a number of flowers and bolls per plant. Deviation between HPBE1 and HPBE2 was relatively large for a number of flowers per plant at positions 3, 4, and 5, but much smaller for number of bolls per plant. There was increase of heterosis before the end of July, and the highest heterosis was observed at 22 DAF （22 days after flowering） for flowers and at 16 DAF for bolls, and then declined. There existed significant diversity of interaction heterosis for flowers as well as for bolls during blooming stages, but deviation between HPBE1 and HPBE2 was smaller for number of bolls per plant than that of flowers per plant. The cross of DP-15 （late-season variety）＇ HG-H-12 had positive general heterosis since 19 DAF, and negative HPB was observed for the cross of GL-5 （early-season variety）＇ HG-H-12 after 37 DAF. Interaction heterosis was mostly not significant for cross DP-15＇ HG-H-12, but the reverse was true for cross GL-5＇ HG-H-12. Positive conditional HPB was detected since 16 DAF until 43 DAF for cross DP-15＇ HG- H-12, and before 13 DAF for cross GL-5＇ HG-H-12.

Genetic Dissection of Net Effects Between Yield and Its Components in Sea Island Cotton (Gossypium barbadense L.)

The number of bolls, individual boll weight, and lint percentage are three important yield components of lint yield of cotton. In the present study, nine parents, twenty F1, and twenty F2 crosses of intraspecific hybrids of sea island cotton （Gossypium barbadense L.） were grown at Tarim University, Alar, Xinjiang, China, in 2000 and 2001. Lint yield and its three component traits were measured and analyzed by an extended conditional mixed linear model approach. Lint percentage made the largest contribution to additive, additive x environment, and dominance x environment variations for lint yield. The contribution ratios of number of bolls, individual boll weight, and combined contribution of these two traits to additive x environment and dominance x environment variations for lint yield were not statistically significant. Lint yield of different parents could be affected differently by lint percentage. Lint yield of some parents was closely correlated with lint percentage, whereas for other parents, the behavior of individual boll weight and number of bolls played much more important roles on lint yield than that of lint percentage. It was shown by the conditional and conventional predicted additive x environment interaction effects of parents that the environment condition could influence different parents with varied effects.

Implementation of a drainage information, analysis and management system

An integrated drainage information, analysis and management system （DIAMS） was developed and implemented for the New Jersey Department of Transportation （N/DOT）. The purpose of the DIAMS is to provide a useful tool for managers to evaluate drainage infrastructure, to facilitate the determination of the present costs of preserving those in- frastructures, and to make decisions regarding the optimal use of their infrastructure budgets. The impetus for DIAMS is the culvert information management system （CIMS）, which is developed to manage the data for culvert pipes. DIAMS maintains and summa- rizes accumulated inspection data for all types of drainage infrastructure assets, including pipes, inlet/outlet structures, outfalls and manufactured treatment devices. DIAMS capa- bilities include identifying drainage infrastructure, maintaining inspection history, map- ping locations, predicting service life based on the current condition states, and assessing present asset value. It also includes unit cost values of 72 standard items to estimate the current cost for new assets with the ability to adjust for future inflation. In addition, DIAMS contains several different repair, rehabilitation and replacement options to remedy the drainage infrastructure. DIAMS can analyze asset information and determine decisions to inspect, rehabilitate, replace or do nothing at the project and network levels by comparing costs with risks and failures. Costs may be optimized to meet annual maintenance budget allocations by pfioritizing drainage infrastructure needing inspection, cleaning and repair. DIAMS functional modules include vendor data uploading, asset identification, system administration and financial analysis. Among the significant performance feature of DIAMS is its proactive nature, which affords decision makers the means of conducting a comprehensive financial analysis to determine the optimal proactive schedule for the proper maintenance actions and to prioritize them accordingly. Benefits of DIAMS include long-term savings that accrue by adopting optimized preventive maintenance strategies and facilitating compliance with Governmental Accounting Standards Board （GASB） and federal storm water regulations.

A Simplified Model, Dynamic Analysis and Force Estimation for a Large-scale Orinthopter in Forward Flight Based on Flight Data

Similarities and differences of a large-scale flapping-wing robot with fixed-wing UAVs in equations of motion,trim curves,and aerodynamic forces in forward flight are discussed in this paper and a simplified model for flapping flight is presented.Due to the high Wing to Total Weight(WTW)ratio of large-scale omithopters,simple rigid body dynamics is not accurate enough for flight dynamics modeling.On the other hand,the multi-body dynamics associated with flapping gives little insight into the behavior of the resulting model due to complexity of equations.It is also difficult to design proper controllers for such complicated models.In this paper,the effects of different terms of multi-body equations of ornithopter on the estimated aerodynamic forces are studied via experimental flight data.A simpler but yet accurate set of equations is obtained by removing less effective terms from original relations.The presented model is in the form of normal aircraft equations plus some additional terms which can be used in different control and estimation processes.In addition,trim conditions of forward flight are extracted using several flight tests,and corresponding periodic behavior of states and forces are studied.These studies are applicable for identifying time-periodic models.

ADRC in output and error form:connection,equivalence,performance

In this work,we investigate two specific linear ADRC structures,namely output-and error-based.The former is considered a“standard”version of ADRC,a title obtained primarily thanks to its simplicity and effectiveness,which have spurred its adoption across multiple industries.The latter is found to be especially appealing to practitioners as its feedback error-driven structure bares similarities to conventional control solutions,like PI and PID.In this paper,we describe newly found connections between the two considered ADRC structures,which allowed us to formally establish conditions for their equivalence.Furthermore,the conducted comprehensive performance comparison between output-and error-based ADRCs has facilitated the identification of specific modules within them,which can now be conveniently used as building blocks,thus aiding the control designers in customizing ADRC-based solutions and making them most suitable for their applications.

"Weather" transit is reliable? Using AVL data to explore tram performance in Melbourne,Australia

This paper uses automatic vehicle location （AVL） records to investigate the effect of weather conditions on the travel time reliability of on-road rail transit, through a case study of the Melbourne streetcar （tram） network. The datasets available were an extensive historica; AVL dataset as well as weather observations. The sample size used in the analysis included all trips made over a period of five years （2006-2010 inclusive）, during the morning peak （7 am-9 am） for fifteen randomly selected radial tram routes, all traveling to the Melbourne CBD create a linear model Ordinary least square （OLS） regression analysis was conducted to with tram travel time being the dependent variable. An alternative formulation of the model is also compared. Travel time was regressed on various weather effects including precipitation, air temperature, sea level pressure and wind speed; as well as indicator variables for weekends, public holidays and route numbers to investigate a correlation between weather condition and the on-time performance of the trams. The results indicate that only precipitation and air temperature are significant in their effect on tram travel time. The model demonstrates that on average, an additional millimeter of precipitation during the peak period adversely affects the average travel time during that period by approximately 8 s, that is, rainfall tends to increase the travel time. The effect of air temperature is less intuitive, with the model indicating that trams adhere more closely to schedule when the temperature is different in absolute terms to the mean operating conditions （taken as 15 ℃）.

Multiaxial fatigue life prediction of composite materials

In order to analyze the stress and strain fields in the fibers and the matrix in composite materials,a fiber-scale unit cell model is established and the corresponding periodical boundary conditions are introduced.Assuming matrix cracking as the failure mode of composite materials,an energy-based fatigue damage parameter and a multiaxial fatigue life prediction method are established.This method only needs the material properties of the fibers and the matrix to be known.After the relationship between the fatigue damage parameter and the fatigue life under any arbitrary test condition is established,the multiaxial fatigue life under any other load condition can be predicted.The proposed method has been verified using two different kinds of load forms.One is unidirectional laminates subjected to cyclic off-axis loading,and the other is filament wound composites subjected to cyclic tension-torsion loading.The fatigue lives predicted using the proposed model are in good agreements with the experimental results for both kinds of load forms.

Effect of speed hump characteristics on pavement condition

Speed humps are the most common type of traffic calming devices due to their low cost and easy installation. However, in many Egyptian roads, considerable number of these humps is randomly placed without proper engineering studies and justifications. Deteri- oration of pavement condition is observed near these humps. This paper presents a case study applied to collect and analyze visual inspection data for the reason of evaluating the impact of speed humps on pavement condition on intercity rural roads. The paper used 52 speed humps located in an intercity two-lane, two-way road that connects two cities, Tahta and Gerga, in Upper Egypt. The total length of this road is about 34 km. Pavement condition index （PCI）, in road sections, near speed humps in the two directions of travel were calculated from the visual inspection measurements. The characteristics of each speed hump （width, height, and distance from preceding hump） were measured. Using statistical analyses, the correlations between the pavement conditions and hump char- acteristics were examined. Regression analysis models were developed to represent the relationships between pavement conditions and hump characteristics. Generally, the re- sults proved that the pavement conditions are greatly influenced by the presence of speed humps and hump characteristics.