Optimization of Generator Based on Gaussian Process Regression Model with Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search

The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.

Kinematic calibration under the expectation maximization framework for exoskeletal inertial motion capture system

This study presents a kinematic calibration method for exoskeletal inertial motion capture (EI-MoCap) system with considering the random colored noise such as gyroscopic drift.In this method, the geometric parameters are calibrated by the traditional calibration method at first. Then, in order to calibrate the parameters affected by the random colored noise, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is introduced. Through the use of geometric parameters calibrated by the traditional calibration method, the iterations under the EM framework are decreased and the efficiency of the proposed method on embedded system is improved. The performance of the proposed kinematic calibration method is compared to the traditional calibration method. Furthermore, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified on the EI-MoCap system. The simulation and experiment demonstrate that the motion capture precision is significantly improved by 16.79%and 7.16%respectively in comparison to the traditional calibration method.

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent to Second-Kind Predictability

In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz model.The results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external forcings.On this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable fields.The spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE method.This similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate prediction.In addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was proposed.The RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability limit.For instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.Moreover,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.

Parental Educational Expectations,Academic Pressure,and Adolescent Mental Health:An Empirical Study Based on CEPS Survey Data

Background:This study aimed to investigate the relationship between parental educational expectations and adolescent mental health problems,with academic pressure as a moderating variable.Methods:This study was based on the baseline data of the China Education Panel Survey,which was collected within one school year during 2013–2014.It included 19,958 samples from seventh and ninth graders,who ranged from 11 to 18 years old.After removing missing values and conducting relevant data processing,the effective sample size for analysis was 16344.The OLS(Ordinary Least Squares)multiple linear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between parental educational expectations,academic pressure,and adolescents’mental health problems.In addition,we established an interaction term between parents’educational expectations and academic pressure to investigate the moderating effect of academic stress.Results:The study found that adolescents whose parents had high educational expectations reported less mental health problems.(β=−0.195;p<0.001).Additionally,adolescents who had high academic pressure reported more mental health problems.(β=0.649;p<0.001).Furthermore,the study found that academic pressure had a significant moderating effect on the relationship between parental educational expectations and adolescents’mental health problems(β=0.082;p<0.001).Conclusion:Parental educational expectations had a close relationship with adolescents’mental health problems,and academic pressure moderated this relationship.For those adolescents with high levels of academic pressure,the association between high parental educational expectations and mental health problems became stronger.On the contrary,for those adolescents with low levels of academic pressure,the association between high parental educational expectations and mental health problems became weaker.These findings shed new light on how parental educational expectations affected adolescent mental health problems and had significant implications for their healthy development.

Conditional Generative Adversarial Network Enabled Localized Stress Recovery of Periodic Composites

Structural damage in heterogeneousmaterials typically originates frommicrostructures where stress concentration occurs.Therefore,evaluating the magnitude and location of localized stress distributions within microstructures under external loading is crucial.Repeating unit cells(RUCs)are commonly used to represent microstructural details and homogenize the effective response of composites.This work develops a machine learning-based micromechanics tool to accurately predict the stress distributions of extracted RUCs.The locally exact homogenization theory efficiently generates the microstructural stresses of RUCs with a wide range of parameters,including volume fraction,fiber/matrix property ratio,fiber shapes,and loading direction.Subsequently,the conditional generative adversarial network(cGAN)is employed and constructed as a surrogate model to establish the statistical correlation between these parameters and the corresponding localized stresses.The stresses predicted by cGAN are validated against the remaining true data not used for training,showing good agreement.This work demonstrates that the cGAN-based micromechanics tool effectively captures the local responses of composite RUCs.It can be used for predicting potential crack initiations starting from microstructures and evaluating the effective behavior of periodic composites.

Exact controllability of rational expectations model with multiplicative noise and input delay

This paper considers the rational expectations model with multiplicative noise and input delay,where the system dynamics rely on the conditional expectations of future states.The main contribution is to obtain a sufficient condition for the exact controllability of the rational expectations model.In particular,we derive a sufficient Gramian matrix condition and a rank condition for the delay-free case.The key is the solvability of the backward stochastic difference equations with input delay which is derived from the forward and backward stochastic system.

Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Attribute Reduction of Hybrid Decision Information Systems Based on Fuzzy Conditional Information Entropy

The presence of numerous uncertainties in hybrid decision information systems(HDISs)renders attribute reduction a formidable task.Currently available attribute reduction algorithms,including those based on Pawlak attribute importance,Skowron discernibility matrix,and information entropy,struggle to effectively manages multiple uncertainties simultaneously in HDISs like the precise measurement of disparities between nominal attribute values,and attributes with fuzzy boundaries and abnormal values.In order to address the aforementioned issues,this paper delves into the study of attribute reduction withinHDISs.First of all,a novel metric based on the decision attribute is introduced to solve the problem of accurately measuring the differences between nominal attribute values.The newly introduced distance metric has been christened the supervised distance that can effectively quantify the differences between the nominal attribute values.Then,based on the newly developed metric,a novel fuzzy relationship is defined from the perspective of“feedback on parity of attribute values to attribute sets”.This new fuzzy relationship serves as a valuable tool in addressing the challenges posed by abnormal attribute values.Furthermore,leveraging the newly introduced fuzzy relationship,the fuzzy conditional information entropy is defined as a solution to the challenges posed by fuzzy attributes.It effectively quantifies the uncertainty associated with fuzzy attribute values,thereby providing a robust framework for handling fuzzy information in hybrid information systems.Finally,an algorithm for attribute reduction utilizing the fuzzy conditional information entropy is presented.The experimental results on 12 datasets show that the average reduction rate of our algorithm reaches 84.04%,and the classification accuracy is improved by 3.91%compared to the original dataset,and by an average of 11.25%compared to the other 9 state-of-the-art reduction algorithms.The comprehensive analysis of these research results clearly indicates that our algorithm is highly effective in managing the intricate uncertainties inherent in hybrid data.

Exceeding Expectations

The Chinese economy continued to rebound and made solid progress in 2023,despite the complex international situation and numerous risks and challenges.The accelerated economic structural transformation and upgrade,coupled with increasing economic resilience,has resulted in various highlights.

Double Conditional Expectation

The concept of double conditional expectation is introduced. A series of properties for the double conditional expectation are obtained several convergence theorems and Jensen inequality are proved. Finally we discuss the special cases and application for double conditional expectation. Key words double conditional expectation - covergence theorem - Jensen inequality - branching chain in random environment CLC number O 211.6 Foundation item: Supported by the National Science Foundation of China (10371092) and the Foundation of Wuhan UniversityBiography: HU Di-he (1935-), male, Professor, research direction: stochastic processes and random fractals.

L_p-CONTINUITY OF NONCOMMUTATIVE CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONS

Let （M,τ） be a noncommutative probability space, （Mn）n≥l a sequence of von Neumann subalgebras of M and N a von Neumann subalgebra of M. We introduce the notions of It-approach and orthogonal approach for （Mn）n≥1 and prove that ε（x｜Mn）Lp→ε（x｜N） for any x ∈ Lp（M） （1 ≤ p 〈 ∞） if and only if （Mn）n≥1 τ-approaches and orthogonally approaches N.

CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND MARTINGALES IN NONCOMMUTATIVE Lp-SPACES ASSOCIATED WITH CENTER-VALUED TRACES

In this paper we prove the existence of conditional expectations in the noncom- mutative Lp（M, Ф）-spaces associated with center-valued traces. Moreover, their description is also provided. As an application of the obtained results, we establish the norm convergence of weighted averages of martingales in noncommutative Lp（M, Ф）-spaces.

The study of a neutron spectrum unfolding method based on particle swarm optimization combined with maximum likelihood expectation maximization

The neutron spectrum unfolding by Bonner sphere spectrometer(BSS) is considered a complex multidimensional model,which requires complex mathematical methods to solve the first kind of Fredholm integral equation. In order to solve the problem of the maximum likelihood expectation maximization(MLEM) algorithm which is easy to suffer the pitfalls of local optima and the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm which is easy to get unreasonable flight direction and step length of particles, which leads to the invalid iteration and affect efficiency and accuracy, an improved PSO-MLEM algorithm, combined of PSO and MLEM algorithm, is proposed for neutron spectrum unfolding. The dynamic acceleration factor is used to balance the ability of global and local search, and improves the convergence speed and accuracy of the algorithm. Firstly, the Monte Carlo method was used to simulated the BSS to obtain the response function and count rates of BSS. In the simulation of count rate, four reference spectra from the IAEA Technical Report Series No. 403 were used as input parameters of the Monte Carlo method. The PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the neutron spectrum of the simulated data and was verified by the difference of the unfolded spectrum to the reference spectrum. Finally, the 252Cf neutron source was measured by BSS, and the PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the experimental neutron spectrum.Compared with maximum entropy deconvolution(MAXED), PSO and MLEM algorithm, the PSO-MLEM algorithm has fewer parameters and automatically adjusts the dynamic acceleration factor to solve the problem of local optima. The convergence speed of the PSO-MLEM algorithm is 1.4 times and 3.1 times that of the MLEM and PSO algorithms. Compared with PSO, MLEM and MAXED, the correlation coefficients of PSO-MLEM algorithm are increased by 33.1%, 33.5% and 1.9%, and the relative mean errors are decreased by 98.2%, 97.8% and 67.4%.

Characterizing large-scale weak interlayer shear zones using conditional random field theory

The shear behavior of large-scale weak intercalation shear zones(WISZs)often governs the stability of foundations,rock slopes,and underground structures.However,due to their wide distribution,undulating morphology,complex fabrics,and varying degrees of contact states,characterizing the shear behavior of natural and complex large-scale WISZs precisely is challenging.This study proposes an analytical method to address this issue,based on geological fieldwork and relevant experimental results.The analytical method utilizes the random field theory and Kriging interpolation technique to simplify the spatial uncertainties of the structural and fabric features for WISZs into the spatial correlation and variability of their mechanical parameters.The Kriging conditional random field of the friction angle of WISZs is embedded in the discrete element software 3DEC,enabling activation analysis of WISZ C2 in the underground caverns of the Baihetan hydropower station.The results indicate that the activation scope of WISZ C2 induced by the excavation of underground caverns is approximately 0.5e1 times the main powerhouse span,showing local activation.Furthermore,the overall safety factor of WISZ C2 follows a normal distribution with an average value of 3.697.

Iterative Receiver for Orthogonal Time Frequency Space with Index Modulation via Structured Prior-Based Hybrid Belief and Expectation Propagation

Orthogonal Time Frequency Space(OTFS)signaling with index modulation(IM)is a promising transmission scheme characterized by high transmission efficiency for high mobility scenarios.In this paper,we study the receiver for coded OTFS-IM system.First,we construct the corresponding factor graph,on which the structured prior incorporating activation pattern constraint and channel coding is devised.Then we develop a iterative receiver via structured prior-based hybrid belief propagation(BP)and expectation propagation(EP)algorithm,named as StrBP-EP,for the coded OTFS-IM system.To reduce the computational complexity of discrete distribution introduced by structured prior,Gaussian approximation conducted by EP is adopted.To further reduce the complexity,we derive two variations of the proposed algorithm by using some approximations.Simulation results validate the superior performance of the proposed algorithm.

Self-Frustration of Expectations in Major Depressive Disorder: The Syncytiopathy Hypothesis of Depression Revisited

This paper is a further elaboration of my model of the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder focusing on imbalances of glial-neuronal interactions in tripartite synapses and the glial network (syncytium). Basically, it is proposed that the connexin proteins building gap junctions in the glial syncytium are underexpressed or dysfunctional in major depression, called syncytiopathy. As a compensatory effect the astrocytic receptors in tripartite synapses are overexpressed. This leads to protracted synaptic information processing because of a relative lack of neurotransmitter substances for the occupancy of astrocytic receptors. Based on a new biophysical formal description of astrocytic receptors as expectation variables it can be shown that the protracted processing of sensory information frustrate the full comprehension of the expected event, since it cannot be grasped in time. Moreover, expectation frustration may stress the glial syncytium aggravating memory impairment. This cyclic process of dysbalanced synaptic information processing is characterized as self-frustration of expectations explanatory for the main cognitive dysfunctions in major depression as slowing down processing speed, deficits in attention and working memory. The main result of the study is that patients with major depression cannot fully acknowledge the existence of an intended event.

Complete moment convergence for ND random variables under the sub-linear expectations

In this article,we establish a general result on complete moment convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively dependent(ND)random variables under the sub-linear expectations.As applications,we can obtain a series of results on complete moment convergence for ND random variables under the sub-linear expectations.

An Analysis of Conditional Survival Rates for Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program based at the National Cancer Institute in the US, conditional survival rates are reported for 1,988 Ewing Sarcoma patients diagnosed during the period 2000-2015. These patients represent the experience of 26.5% of the US population. Specifically, 5-year conditional relative survival rates are calculated for these patients for the first eight years subsequent to diagnosis of their cancer by Extent of Disease (EOD) (Localized, Regional, and Distant as coded by the SEER Program), gender, and age (<18, 18 - 34, and 35+). Findings include showing how the conditional survival rate patterns improve over time and that there are differences by gender, age, and EOD.

The Effects of Job Insecurity, Emotional Exhaustion, and Met Expectations on Hotel Employees’ Pro-Environmental Behaviors: Test of a Serial Mediation Model

There are a plethora of empirical pieces about employees’pro-environmental behaviors.However,the extant literature has either ignored or not fully examined various factors(e.g.,negative or positive non-green workplace factors)that might affect employees’pro-environmental behaviors.Realizing these voids,the present paper proposes and tests a serial mediation model that examines the interrelationships of job insecurity,emotional exhaustion,met expectations,and proactive pro-environmental behavior.We used data gathered from hotel customer-contact employees with a time lag of one week and their direct supervisors in China.After presenting support for the psychometric properties of the measures via confirmatory analysis in LISREL 8.30,the abovementioned linkages were gauged using the PROCESS plug-in for statistical package for social sciences.The findings delineated support for the hypothesized associations.Specifically,emotional exhaustion and met expectations partly mediated the effect of job insecurity on proactive pro-environmental behavior.More importantly,emotional exhaustion and met expectations serially mediated the influence of job insecurity on proactive pro-environmental behavior.These findings have important theoretical implications as well as significant implications for diminishing job insecurity,managing emotional exhaustion,increasing met expectations,and enhancing ecofriendly behaviors.

Conditional survival probability of distant-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

BACKGROUND The prognosis of many patients with distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)improved after they survived for several months.Compared with tradi-tional survival analysis,conditional survival(CS)which takes into account changes in survival risk could be used to describe dynamic survival probabilities.AIM To evaluate CS of distant metastatic HCC patients.METHODS Patients diagnosed with distant metastatic HCC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify factors for overall survival(OS),while competing risk model was used to identify risk factors for cancer-specific survival(CSS).Six-month CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 6 mo at a specific time after initial diagnosis,and standardized difference(d)was used to evaluate the survival differences between subgroups.Nomograms were constructed to predict CS.Positiveα-fetoprotein expression,higher T stage(T3 and T4),N1 stage,non-primary site surgery,non-chemotherapy,non-radiotherapy,and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for actual OS and CSS through univariate and multivariate analysis.Actual survival rates decreased over time,while CS rates gradually increased.As for the 6-month CS,the survival difference caused by chemotherapy and radiotherapy gradually disappeared over time,and the survival difference caused by lung metastasis reversed.Moreover,the influence of age and gender on survival gradually appeared.Nomograms were fitted for patients who have lived for 2,4 and 6 mo to predict 6-month conditional OS and CSS,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)of nomograms for conditional OS decreased as time passed,and the AUC for conditional CSS gradually increased.CONCLUSION CS for distant metastatic HCC patients substantially increased over time.With dynamic risk factors,nomograms constructed at a specific time could predict more accurate survival rates.