ON CONFIDENCE REGIONS OF SEMIPARAMETRIC NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS(A GEOMETRIC APPROACH)

A geometric framework is proposed for semiparametric nonlinear regression models based on the concept of least favorable curve, introduced by Severini and Wong (1992). The authors use this framework to drive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameter and parameter subset in terms of curvatures. The results obtained by Hamilton et al. (1982), Hamilton (1986) and Wei (1994) are extended to semiparametric nonlinear regression models.

CONFIDENCE REGIONS IN TERMS OF STATISTICAL CURVATURE FOR AR(q) NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

This paper constructs a set of confidence regions of parameters in terms of statistical curvatures for AR(q) nonlinear regression models. The geometric frameworks are proposed for the model. Then several confidence regions for parameters and parameter subsets in terms of statistical curvatures are given based on the likelihood ratio statistics and score statistics. Several previous results, such as [1] and [2] are extended to AR(q) nonlinear regression models.

Data Assimilation Method Based on the Constraints of Confidence Region

The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

Joint empirical likelihood confidence regions for a finite number of quantiles under strong mixing samples

In this paper, we obtain the joint empirical likelihood confidence regions for a finite number of quantiles under strong mixing samples. As an application of this result, the empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the difference of any two quantiles are also obtained.

High-Accuracy Confidence Regions for Distribution Parameters

With the help of today’s computers, it is always relatively easy to find maximum-likelihood estimators of one or more parameters of any specific statistical distribution, and use these to construct the corresponding approximate confidence interval/region, facilitated by the well-known asymptotic properties of the likelihood function. The purpose of this article is to make this approximation substantially more accurate by extending the Taylor expansion of the corresponding probability density function to include quadratic and cubic terms in several centralized sample means, and thus finding the corresponding -proportional correction to the original algorithm. We then demonstrate the new procedure’s usage, both for constructing confidence regions and for testing hypotheses, emphasizing that incorporating this correction carries minimal computational and programming cost. In our final chapter, we present two examples to indicate how significantly the new approximation improves the procedure’s accuracy.

Confidence Regions with Nuisance Parameters

Consider a distribution with several parameters whose exact values are unknown and need to be estimated using the maximum-likelihood technique. Under a regular case of estimation, it is fairly routine to construct a confidence region for all such parameters, based on the natural logarithm of the corresponding likelihood function. In this article, we investigate the case of doing this for only some of these parameters, assuming that the remaining (so called nuisance) parameters are of no interest to us. This is to be done at a chosen level of confidence, maintaining the usual accuracy of this procedure (resulting in about 1% error for samples of size , and further decreasing with 1/n). We provide a general solution to this problem, demonstrating it by many explicit examples.

GENERALIZED CONFIDENCE REGIONS OF FIXED EFFECTS IN THE TWO-WAY ANOVA

The authors discuss the unbalanced two-way ANOVA model under heteroscedasticity. By taking the generalized approach, the authors derive the generalized p-values for testing the equality of fixed effects and the generalized confidence regions for these effects. The authors also provide their frequentist properties in large-sample cases. Simulation studies show that the generalized confidence regions have good coverage probabilities.

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD CONFIDENCE REGION FOR PARAMETERS IN LINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS WITH MISSING DATA

The multivariate linear errors-in-variables model when the regressors are missing at random in the sense of Rubin （1976） is considered in this paper. A constrained empirical likelihood confidence region for a parameter β0 in this model is proposed, which is constructed by combining the score function corresponding to the weighted squared orthogonal distance based on inverse probability with a constrained region of β0. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood ratio at the true parameter converges to the standard chi-square distribution. Simulations show that the coverage rate of the proposed confidence region is closer to the nominal level and the length of confidence interval is narrower than those of the normal approximation of inverse probability weighted adjusted least square estimator in most cases. A real example is studied and the result supports the theory and simulation＇s conclusion.

Joint Empirical Likelihood Confidence Regions for a Finite Number of Quantiles Under Negatively Associated Samples

In this paper, the authors obtain the joint empirical likelihood confidence regions for a finite number of quantiles under negatively associated samples. As an application of this result, the empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the difference of any two quantiles are also developed.

Empirical likelihood for first-order mixed integer-valued autoregressive model

In this paper, we not only construct the confidence region for parameters in a mixed integer-valued autoregressive process using the empirical likelihood method, but also establish the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic and obtain its limiting distribution. And then, via simulation studies we give coverage probabilities for the parameters of interest. The results show that the empirical likelihood method performs very well.

Influence of random uncertainties of anisotropic fibrous model parameters on arterial pressure estimation

This paper deals with a stochastic approach based on the principle of the maximum entropy to investigate the effect of the parameter random uncertainties on the arterial pressure. Motivated by a hyperelastic, anisotropic, and incompressible constitutive law with fiber families, the uncertain parameters describing the mechanical behavior are considered. Based on the available information, the probability density functions are attributed to every random variable to describe the dispersion of the model parameters. Numerous realizations are carried out, and the corresponding arterial pressure results are compared with the human non-invasive clinical data recorded over a mean cardiac cycle. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations are performed, the convergence of the probabilistic model is proven. The different realizations are useful to define a reliable confidence region, in which the probability to have a realization is equM to 95%. It is shown through the obtained results that the error in the estimation of the arterial pressure can reach 35% when the estimation of the model parameters is subjected to an uncertainty ratio of 5%. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the constitutive law relevant parameters for better understanding and characterization of the arterial wall mechanical behaviors.

SOME PROPERTIES OF ROSEN’S MLE FOR GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Von Rosen (1989) proposed the MLE of parameters in multivariate linear normal model MLNM(sumfromn= lto ∞AiBiCi). This paper discusses some properties of Rosen's MLE for general distributions which includs invariant, equivariant, strong consistency and asymptotic normality. Furthermore, we can construct the consistent confidence region for the parameter of experctation in MLNM(sumfromn=1to∞, AiBiCi) and obtain asymptotic distribu- tion and consistent confidence region of the linear discrimination function for canonical correlation by Kahtri (1988).

Parameter estimation of the WMTD model

The MTD （mixture transition distribution） model based on Weibull distribution （WMTD model） is proposed in this paper, which is aimed at its parameter estimation. An EM algorithm for estimation is given and shown to work well by some simulations. And bootstrap method is used to obtain confidence regions for the parameters. Finally, the results of a real example--predicting stock prices--show that the WMTD model proposed is able to capture the features of the data from thick-tailed distribution better than GMTD （mixture transition distribution） model.

Development of six sigma concurrent parameter and tolerance design method based on response surface methodology

Using Response Surface Methodology (RSM), an optimizing model of concurrent parameter and tolerance design is proposed where response mean equals its target in the target being best. The optimizing function of the model is the sum of quality loss and tolerance cost subjecting to the variance confidence region of which six sigma capability can be assured. An example is illustrated in order to compare the differences between the developed model and the parameter design with minimum variance. The results show that the proposed method not only achieves robustness, but also greatly reduces cost. The objectives of high quality and low cost of product and process can be achieved simultaneously by the application of six sigma concurrent parameter and tolerance design.

Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference in Semiparametric Regression Model for Longitudinal Data

In this paper, we consider the semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data. Due to the correlation within groups, a generalized empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic for the unknown parameters in the model is suggested by introducing the working covariance matrix. It is proved that the proposed statistic is asymptotically standard chi-squared under some suitable conditions, and hence it can be used to construct the confidence regions of the parameters. A simulation study is conducted to compare the proposed method with the generalized least squares method in terms of coverage accuracy and average lengths of the confidence intervals.

Empirical likelihood-based inference in a partially linear model for longitudinal data

A partially linear model with longitudinal data is considered, empirical likelihood to infer- ence for the regression coefficients and the baseline function is investigated, the empirical log-likelihood ratios is proven to be asymptotically chi-squared, and the corresponding confidence regions for the pa- rameters of interest are then constructed. Also by the empirical likelihood ratio functions, we can obtain the maximum empirical likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients and the baseline function, and prove the asymptotic normality. The numerical results are conducted to compare the performance of the empirical likelihood and the normal approximation-based method, and a real example is analysed.

Empirical Likelihood for Mixed-effects Error-in-variables Model

This paper mainly introduces the method of empirical likelihood and its applications on two different models. We discuss the empirical likelihood inference on fixed-effect parameter in mixed-effects model with error-in-variables. We first consider a linear mixed-effects model with measurement errors in both fixed and random effects. We construct the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the fixed-effects parameters and the mean parameters of random-effects. The limiting distribution of the empirical log likelihood ratio at the true parameter is X2p＋q, where p, q are dimension of fixed and random effects respectively. Then we discuss empirical likelihood inference in a semi-linear error-in-variable mixed-effects model. Under certain conditions, it is shown that the empirical log likelihood ratio at the true parameter also converges to X2p＋q. Simulations illustrate that the proposed confidence region has a coverage probability more closer to the nominal level than normal approximation based confidence region.

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD FOR LONGITUDINAL PARTIALLY LINEAR MODEL WITH α-MIXING ERRORS

This paper considers large sample inference for the regression parameter in a partially linear regression model with longitudinal data and a-mixing errors. The authors introduce an estimated empirical likelihood for the regression parameter and show that its limiting distribution is a mixture of central chi-squared distributions. Also, the authors derive an adjusted empirical likelihood method which is shown to have a central chi-square limiting distribution. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the empirical likelihood method.

Empirical likelihood for single-index models with responses missing at random

The missing response problem in single-index models is studied, and a bias-correction method to infer the index coefficients is developed. Two weighted empirical log-likelihood ratios with asymptotic chisquare are derived, and the corresponding empirical likelihood confidence regions for the index coefficients are constructed. In addition, the estimators of the index coefficients and the link function are defined, and their asymptotic normalities are proved. A simulation study is conducted to compare the empirical likelihood and the normal approximation based method in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths of confidence intervals. A real example illustrates our methods.

Empirical Likelihood for Partially Linear Models Under Negatively Associated Errors

This paper proposes to use the blockwise empirical likelihood （EL） method to construct the confidence regions for the regression vector β in a partially linear model under negatively associated errors. It is shown that the blockwise EL ratio statistic for β is asymptotically χ^2 distributed. The result is used to obtain an EL-based confidence region for β. Results of a simulation study on the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence regions are reported.