Research on Rural Consumer Demand in Hebei Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

By selecting the time sequence data concerning influencing factors of rural consumer demand in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2010,this paper uses the principal component analysis method in multiplex econometric statistical analysis,constructs the principal component of consumer demand in Hebei Province,conducts regression on the dependent variable of consumer spending per capita in Hebei Province and the principal component of consumer demand so as to get principal component regression,and then conducts quantitative and qualitative analysis on the principal component.The results show that total output value per capita (yuan),employment rate,and income gap,are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province positively;consumer price index,upbringing ratio of children,and one-year interest rate are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province negatively;the ratio of supporting the elderly and medical care spending per capita are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province positively.The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province as follows:develop county economy in Hebei Province and increase rural residents' consumer demand;use industry to support agriculture and coordinate urban-rural development;improve rural medical care and health system and resolve actual difficulties of the masses.

基于主成分回归分析方法的消费需求研究——以湖北省为例

基于2002 ～2010年湖北省消费需求影响因素的时序数据,运用主成分分析法求出影响湖北省消费需求的主成分,然后运用最小二乘法与湖北省人均消费支出进行回归,得到主成分回归方程,并对其展开定量与定性分析.结果表明,少年儿童抚养比、老年抚养比和人均储蓄余额对人均消费支出具有正向促进作用,其指标每上升1％,人均消费支出将分别增加1.33％、1.30％和0.73％；而就业率、城乡收入差距、人均可支配收入、人均生产总值、一年期存款利率等对人均消费支出具有反向抑制作用,其值每上升1％,人均消费支出将下降0.29％、0.28％、0.29％、0.22％、0.13％.

基于主成分分析的河北省农村消费需求研究

选取2000~2010年河北省农村消费需求影响因素的时序数据,运用了计量经济学多元统计分析中的主成分分析法,构造出影响河北省消费需求的主成分,然后与因变量河北省人均消费支出进行回归,进而得到主成分回归,并对主成分进行了定量和定性分析。结果表明,人均生产总值、就业率、收入差距与河北省农村居民消费需求呈正相关;消费价格指数、少年儿童抚养比、一年期利率与河北省农村居民消费需求呈负相关;老年抚养比、人均医疗支出与河北省农村居民消费需求呈显著正相关。提出了提高居民消费需求的对策建议：发展河北省县域经济,增加农民村居民消费;以工业反哺农业,统筹城乡发展;完善农村的医疗保健制度,解除农民消费的后顾之忧。