The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2...In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.展开更多
There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run ...There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
文摘In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.
文摘There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).
