China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

The Influence of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on the Rural Residents' Consumption

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of influence of fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture monetary supply on rural residents' s consumption by adopting a vector auto-regression model,based on the data from 1978 to 2011.The study indicated that:in the short term,fiscal policy is the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption,monetary policy is not the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption;in the long term,the comprehensive function of fiscal policy and monetary policy has a great influence on the of rural residents' consumption.Under the background of Economic Transition and Urbanization,Expanding Domestic Demand is the slogan.We should coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy to promote the rural residents' consumption.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Study of International Coordination of Chinese Monetary Policy under Open Economy

Preliminary study is made to the international coordination of national monetary policy under economic globalization and informationalization. This paper uses Game Theory to analyze the operation effect of Chinese monetary policy. It suggests that the maximum effect of Chinese monetary policy can only be achieved by cooperation and coordination with international society.

Loose fiscal,tight monetary policies suit future restructuring

Various statistical and theoretical analyses indicate that China will face a more difficult and complex international environment in the upcoming post-crisis era.China's economy has come to a point where restructuring,which has been an important area of research,is inevitable.This paper looks first at the three symptoms of an unreasonable economic structure and their roots from institutional and development strategy aspects.It concludes that China's basic economic restructuring policies should be oriented toward a loose fiscal policy and a moderately tight monetary policy on the basis of deepening institutional reform.

The Analysis of High Exchange Reserve and High National Saving in China

High resident saving and high foreign exchange reserve are the inevitable products in China during the period from planned economy to market economy, and there is high correlation between them. On the one hand, this kind of economic phenomenon can＇t persist in a long time; on the other hand, to implement relevant fiscal and monetary policy, foreign trade policy, and foreign exchange management policy to change them in view of their negative effects to present economy is one of the present economic tasks.

Does Financial Globalization Discipline Macroeconomic Policies

Using the unbalanced panel data of 160 countries from 1970 to 2007,we employ inflation and the budget deficit as proxies for monetary policy and fiscal policy,respectively,and study whether financial globalization has discipline effects on these macroeconomic policies.The empirical results in our study suggest a significant discipline effect of financial globalization on monetary policy during the entire sample period,which is robust both to de jure and to de facto measures of financial openness.Our sub-sample investigations demonstrate that financial globalization reduces inflation only in higher-middle-income and high-income countries,and when financial globalization is scaled by the proportion of a country’s foreign assets and liabilities to its GDP,the discipline is evident only after 1988.Nevertheless,we do not demonstrate any evidence of financial globalization’s discipline effect on fiscal policy.The empirical results indicate that financial globalization even increases the budget deficit in certain countries and periods.

Review,Experience Summary and Prospect of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Paradigm in the 70 Years of People’s Republic of China

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,China has made remarkable achievements and already has had objective conditions for moving towards high-quality development.Under different development stages and policy objectives,there are differences in the regulation effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies.In order to achieve economic growth and price stability,China’s fiscal and monetary policies have undergone various switches.This paper first reviews collocation models of China’s fiscal and monetary policies in the past 70 years,and summarizes their features,including fl exibility,dislcetionary regulation,demand management,and tool diversity.Then,it points out the deficiencies in regulation through fiscal and monetary policies,such as conflict of multiple goals,delayed or mismatched effects,marginal decrease in economic effects,and offset of policy effects.At last,the paper puts forth the possible innovation in combination paradigm,expectation management,supply-demand synergy,and instrumental coordination,and points out the direction of coordination paradigms.

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction func.tions and Markov-switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992-2007. Our results show that fiseal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took plaee around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countereyclical in the pre-1998 period, then switched to be passive and more eountercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiseal policy.

Mixed Monetary-Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

The existing literature on macroeconomic policy research is mainly concerned with the impact of a single monetary or fiscal policy on China 5 macroeconomic fluctuations in a closed economy.However,the effect of a mix of monetary and fiscal policies has been neglected.This paper addresses this issue with an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.It applies impulse-response and welfare analyses to explore the stabilization effect of various mixes of monetary and fiscal policies.The results show that the optimal monetary policy and fiscal policy mix varies in different cases.When government spending shocks happen,the aggressive fiscal policy and passive monetary policy would be the best choice.In contrast,for domestic interest rate shocks,foreign interest rate shocks,and foreign consumption shocks,the passive fiscal policy and aggressive monetary policy are more applicable.This article explains China's economic fluctuations and highlights the importance of mix of monetary and fiscal policies in the face of different shocks.

Total Spending Equation of St. Louis Model： A Causality Analysis for Turkish Economy

Andersen and Jordan （1968） aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in many countries similarly, the results differ from each other in accordance with the economic structure of relevant country In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on real activity and to find out causal relationship among questioned variables using OLS and causality methodologies in Turkish economy over the period 1998：1-2010： IV. Empirical findings indicate that only monetary policy has a significant positive effect on economic activity in the short run, Nonetheless, neither monetary nor fiscal policy has significant impact on real output in the long run. Causality analysis shows that there exists a unidirectional causality running from real output and money stock to government expenditures. Moreover, not surprisingly, it is also found that crisis experiences of Turkey in sample period have highly adverse impact on real activity. Causality analysis suggests us considering government expenditures as explained variable instead of real output. Hence, it can be concluded that St. Louis Model total spending equation is not applicable for Turkish economy during 1998-2010 periods

The Crisis, Responsibility and Regulation

Any observer of current economic development in the world and in the Europe should ask about the causes of the current crisis situation. The authors of this article perceive current situation in the European Union and many of its member states associated with long-term developmental tendencies still less respecting the objective differences in various economic situation of the member states. Establishment and further functioning of monetary union in Europe is gradually becoming a burden for many countries, which prevents full utilization of instruments of monetary and fiscal policy by daily, and in many cases qualitative differences in the problems of economies of individual member states. The fulfillment of these tendencies in particular in the Euro Area monetary policy is confronted with the dominant position of member states in fiscal policy and in the mutual differences among member states. As considerations of differences in economic level and in member states fiscal policies, both of them are based on official figures, some of them are part of the state. In addition, EU institutions face to face to crisis they are increasingly resorting to deepening statist centralization and enter more often to the processes which are usually domains of business subjects, at most of nation states. All these trends lead to a deepening asymmetry between the decision-making processes and responsibilities for economic development and they could lead to even larger failure of national economies or at European or global level. Since the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union in 2004 our department has dealing with issues connecting to the economic management of insurance companies and in relation to the ongoing integration process research interest is extended also to other segments of financial markets.

Rethinking the Rise of Global Central Bank Digital Currencies:A Policy Perspective

This article discusses the impact of central bank digital currency(CBDC)from the perspective of monetary and fiscal policy.We mainly discuss how retail CBDC can improve traditional policy performance.We argue that A CBDC helps existing monetary policies to break through the zero lower bound,shorten the policy time lag,realize selective policy interventions,and make possible the price level target policy system.Similarly,the combination of CBDC and smart contracts can directly affect the performance of the fiscal policy.Compared with the convenience and impact of CDBC as a medium of exchange,its impact as a policy tool is more profound.The current monetary policy is facing a zero lower bound.The fiscal policy is facing a huge sovereign debt crisis and the impact of other private digital currencies on fiat money,which makes the importance of CBDC as a new policy tool more prominent.However,the research on CBDC as a policy tool has many fundamental questions that remain to be answered.This paper contextualizes CBDC with global challenges in policies and new technology advances,and the authors rethink CBDC from a policy perspective,which may provide many new thoughts and have implications for the rise of global CBDC.

结构性需求冲击、政策独立性与财政货币政策协调机制研究

结构性需求冲击非对称地影响不同生产部门产品需求。本文研究此类负向冲击下,财政货币政策如何实施及配合才能实现“稳就业、促消费”目标。本文建立了区分直接和未直接受冲击部门的DSGE模型,考察财政货币政策工具及政策协调机制的有效性。结果表明:政府消费和对企业补贴适用于稳定就业;对家庭转移支付和降低个人所得税适用于促进消费;利率工具比法定存准率工具更有效。保持货币政策独立性有利于财政货币政策组合发挥作用。

国债管理:财政政策与货币政策协调配合的关键点

国债兼具财政和金融功能,是财政政策与货币政策互动最为频繁活跃的领域,而货币政策的立场和操作也会直接影响赤字融资的来源与成本。因此,国债管理是两大政策协调配合的关键切入点。鉴于财政政策与货币政策配合的国际经验,针对我国政策协调配合中面临的挑战,我国应根据经济形势适时调整宏观政策调控机制;推动央行开展公开市场买卖国债;稳步推进国债市场的国际化建设;完善债务约束机制,科学设置债务上限;优化国库现金与央行流动性管理;积极发挥财政部在债务管理与国债市场建设中的主导作用,建立统一高效的政府债券市场;协同健全国债收益率曲线,共同推动曲线深入应用;进一步加强以国债为基础的金融市场流动性机制安排;在更高层面确立财政政策与货币政策的协调机制;保持两大政策部门更为畅通的信息交流。

财政政策、货币政策与高质量就业——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析

更加充分、更高质量的就业是实现经济高质量发展的应有之义。文章采用中国2000—2021年的季度时间序列数据,基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型,实证检验财政政策与货币政策对就业质量的时变及动态影响。研究发现:落实减税降费政策、优化财政支出结构在短期和中长期均有效地促进了高质量就业。面对国际金融危机冲击时,财政政策在短期内实现了对就业质量的保障,而在长期内政策效果受到削弱,这说明高质量就业的实现并非“斯须之作”。数量型货币政策对就业质量的调节作用较为平稳,其影响具有滞后性,而价格型工具更能有效熨平外部冲击对就业质量的影响。相较货币政策,财政政策对就业质量的调控具有更强的拉动作用与抗冲击能力。

新一轮财税体制改革的关键词:统筹与自主

新中国成立以来的财税体制改革历程中,“统筹与自主”的权衡关系是贯穿其中的关键点。新发展阶段更好地推进“统筹与自主”相权衡为重点的财税体制改革,是实现高质量发展和中国式现代化的重要体制机制保障。党的二十届三中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革推进中国式现代化的决定》提出了高质量的“统筹”与“自主”相协调的深化财税体制改革举措。在“统筹”方向上,要求在财政收支管理、财政政策与改革举措间积极推进全面且高质量的统筹改革。在“自主”方向上,增加地方政府自主财力,激励地方政府积极拓展地方财源;赋予地方政府更多的自主财税管理权限,提升地方政府发挥积极有为作用的能力。进一步,为了更好地发挥财税体制改革“统筹”与“自主”的交互作用,需要协调财税体制“统筹与自主”改革的一致性,权衡财税体制“统筹与自主”改革的矛盾关系。

“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标何以兼顾?

为兼顾“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标实现,文章构建了包含环境系统的NK-DSGE模型,同步引入财政收入与支出政策工具、货币政策工具以及碳税,在对中国季度宏观数据进行校准和估计的基础上,分析了宏观政策工具与碳税联合实施的政策效果,讨论了碳税税率变化、碳税规则变动对联合政策效果的影响及造成的社会福利损失。模拟结果显示,积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策与碳税配合对“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标的实现优势更大。其中,财政政策在促增长方面具有优势,货币政策在控制通货膨胀方面发挥重要作用,碳税政策在促进碳减排方面效果显著。经进一步研究发现,提高碳税税率会造成社会福利损失增加,政府可通过调整碳税规则、改变政策目标偏好实现对社会福利的帕累托改进。

宏观政策发力须解决好四个重要问题

当前宏观经济形势非常复杂,宏观政策已成为影响我国经济运行变化趋势的重要变量。宏观政策发力须解决好“针对什么”“机理是什么”“底线在哪里”“着力点在何处”四个重要问题。从风险理论来看,财政货币政策发力应转向“风险管理”,财政货币政策要对经济风险、财政风险、金融风险以及通胀风险进行权衡,基于风险权衡,拿捏好政策实施的时度效,避免过犹不及。财政货币政策发力的底线在于通胀率,着力点在于修复资产负债表损伤。

财政、货币政策如何支持绿色低碳转型——基于存流量一致性模型

推动经济绿色低碳转型,实现“双碳”目标,需要财政与货币政策精准支持。本文通过构建包含异质性住户部门、异质性资本品生产部门在内的七部门存流量一致性模型,模拟分析了包括绿色债券和差别化绿色贷款利率定价在内的财政与货币政策工具,对2020—2060年中国“双碳”目标、经济增长等主要经济指标的影响。研究发现,财政政策在应对绿色低碳转型中的负外部性问题方面具有基础性作用,货币政策为绿色资产逐步替代棕色资产提供了关键支撑。与基准场景或单一财政政策支持相比,财政、货币政策共同发力对绿色低碳转型发展目标效果更佳。未来应优化财政政策和货币政策的协调配合,不断提高财政、货币政策支持绿色低碳转型的效能,同时需关注绿色低碳转型中的通胀和经济增长波动。