Taxpayers Fraudulent Behavior Modeling The Use of Datamining in Fiscal Fraud Detecting Moroccan Case

The fraudulent behavior of taxpayers impacts negatively the resources available to finance public services. It creates distortions of competition and inequality, harming honest taxpayers. Such behavior requires the government intervention to bring order and establish a fiscal justice. This study emphasizes the determination of the interactions linking taxpayers with tax authorities. We try to see how fiscal audit can influence taxpayers’ fraudulent behavior. First of all, we present a theoretical study of a model pre established by other authors. We have released some conditions of this model and we have introduced a new parameter reflecting the efficiency of tax control;we found that the efficiency of a fiscal control have an important effect on these interactions. Basing on the fact that the detection of fraudulent taxpayers is the most difficult step in fiscal control, We established a new approach using DATA MINING process in order to improve fiscal control efficiency. We found results that reflect fairly the conduct of taxpayers that we have tested based on actual statistics. The results are reliable.

China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

The Distributional Impacts of Fiscal Consolidation in Uganda

While Uganda is considered to be at low risk of debt distress,the stagnant tax effort and large planned capital expenditures might significantly alter this position.This paper employs the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model to examine tax design issues that arise in addressing debt increases.The results suggest that Uganda may improve it debt position by permanently increasing tax rates by 5%point.However,an increase of consumption tax rates(Value Added Tax(VAT)and Excise)by this magnitude to meet debt reduction is found to be relatively more distortionary affecting consumption,especially for the poor households,in both the short and long run leading to large temporary reductions in the Gross Domestic Product(GDP).

The Effect of Tax as an Instrument of Fiscal Policy in Kosovo

This paper analyzes and discusses the tax system applied in Kosovo during the period from 1999 until now. It demonstrates the effects of tax policies on the country＇s economic growth and development of businesses in general. This paper also addresses the impact of those policies in maintaining the social equilibrium of a population and economic stability of the country. Applied tax policies in Kosovo have been aimed more at maintaining a stable fiscal and budgetary policy. Based on the analysis of real cases of Kosovo tax laws and their impact on particular businesses, this paper will demonstrate how tax policies applied in Kosovo have given less attention to the need of economic development, which should have been reflected through promoting the development of domestic production, reduction of unemployment, and reduction of the high trade deficit. Empirical evidence from this analysis is discussed, conclusions are derived, and the recommendations of this paper are provided.

Expansive Fiscal Policies and Supply-Demand Imbalance： A Chicken and Egg Problem？

It is generally accepted that governments favor expansive fiscal policies to address an economic scenario in which supply exceeds demand. In other words, economic imbalance is regarded as the cause of the problem and fiscal expansion as the result. However, this paper posits that China＇s expansive fiscal policies may also be a major cause of its economic imbalance, and that fiscal expansion and economic imbalance create cumulative causation. Specifically, China＇s tax system, characterized by a regressive commodity tax, intensifies constraints on domestic consumption while distributing a large proportion of national income to government and enterprises; supply-demand imbalance prompts the government to expand fiscal expenditures and increase taxes, which further exacerbates this imbalance. Thus, even as the country faces a macroeconomic imbalance, the strong measures it adopts in response may stimulate economic growth in the short term, but in the long term, they may do exactly the opposite and create the next economic crisis.

Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021

By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.

加快发展新质生产力的财政力量

加快发展新质生产力,是扎实推进高质量发展的要求,是推动中国式现代化的必由之路。加快发展新质生产力,需要准确把握新质生产力概念和新理念。加快发展新质生产力需要注意的主要问题包括:做到传统生产力和新质生产力的有机结合;处理好产学研关系;处理好市场与政府的关系;正确处理好短期和中长期的关系;立足各地不同的基础条件;全面深化改革开放。加快发展新质生产力,关键在科技创新。文章从企业科技创新、人才政策和教育发展三个方面分析了加快发展新质生产力的财政力量。

国债管理:财政政策与货币政策协调配合的关键点

国债兼具财政和金融功能,是财政政策与货币政策互动最为频繁活跃的领域,而货币政策的立场和操作也会直接影响赤字融资的来源与成本。因此,国债管理是两大政策协调配合的关键切入点。鉴于财政政策与货币政策配合的国际经验,针对我国政策协调配合中面临的挑战,我国应根据经济形势适时调整宏观政策调控机制;推动央行开展公开市场买卖国债;稳步推进国债市场的国际化建设;完善债务约束机制,科学设置债务上限;优化国库现金与央行流动性管理;积极发挥财政部在债务管理与国债市场建设中的主导作用,建立统一高效的政府债券市场;协同健全国债收益率曲线,共同推动曲线深入应用;进一步加强以国债为基础的金融市场流动性机制安排;在更高层面确立财政政策与货币政策的协调机制;保持两大政策部门更为畅通的信息交流。

结构性需求冲击、政策独立性与财政货币政策协调机制研究

结构性需求冲击非对称地影响不同生产部门产品需求。本文研究此类负向冲击下,财政货币政策如何实施及配合才能实现“稳就业、促消费”目标。本文建立了区分直接和未直接受冲击部门的DSGE模型,考察财政货币政策工具及政策协调机制的有效性。结果表明:政府消费和对企业补贴适用于稳定就业;对家庭转移支付和降低个人所得税适用于促进消费;利率工具比法定存准率工具更有效。保持货币政策独立性有利于财政货币政策组合发挥作用。

财税政策促进共同富裕:内在逻辑、现实问题与实现路径

财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱,在扎实推进共同富裕进程中,财政既要促进做大经济发展的“蛋糕”,更要注重“分好蛋糕”,用好财税政策工具,着力缩小区域差距、城乡差距和收入差距,推动基本公共服务均等化。从聚焦构建全国统一大市场、推进城市群和都市圈协同发展、完善转移支付制度、推进城乡协调发展等方面,阐释财税政策发挥作用的内在逻辑和实现路径,分析存在的制约因素,并提出相关政策建议。

财政政策、货币政策与高质量就业——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析

更加充分、更高质量的就业是实现经济高质量发展的应有之义。文章采用中国2000—2021年的季度时间序列数据,基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型,实证检验财政政策与货币政策对就业质量的时变及动态影响。研究发现:落实减税降费政策、优化财政支出结构在短期和中长期均有效地促进了高质量就业。面对国际金融危机冲击时,财政政策在短期内实现了对就业质量的保障,而在长期内政策效果受到削弱,这说明高质量就业的实现并非“斯须之作”。数量型货币政策对就业质量的调节作用较为平稳,其影响具有滞后性,而价格型工具更能有效熨平外部冲击对就业质量的影响。相较货币政策,财政政策对就业质量的调控具有更强的拉动作用与抗冲击能力。

人口老龄化背景下我国医养结合的财税支持政策

老年人口比重的不断加大和养老需求的增加,对我国养老保障体系提出了更高的要求。我国医养结合养老服务业相关财税政策还存在财政政策执行力不强、政府购买服务效果不佳、税收支持系统性不足等问题。实证研究表明,财政支出的增加对医养结合养老服务业的发展有明显的激励作用,税收负担的增加对医养结合养老服务业的发展有明显的抑制作用。因此,应该进一步建立财政收支管理体制,明确财政支出责任,同时加大税收支持政策优惠力度,从而保证医养结合养老服务业能够持续均衡地发展,在缓解人口老龄化问题的同时推动我国“银发经济”的发展。

促进绿色低碳发展的财税政策研究

促进绿色低碳发展是国际潮流所向、大势所趋、民生所系。中央经济工作会议多次提出要围绕低碳产业加快技术开发,助推经济社会的绿色转型。本文基于财税政策视角,阐释财税政策促进绿色低碳发展的理论基础,通过分析绿色低碳的财政支出绩效、绿色投融资政策支持力度、绿色低碳的涉税政策、政府绿色采购效率等方面存在的问题,提出促进绿色低碳发展的路径选择,旨在通过完善现有财税政策体系,推进绿色发展、循环发展、低碳发展。

财税激励政策对企业数字化转型的影响

基于2012—2020年中国A股上市公司面板数据,分析财税政策对企业数字化转型的影响。研究表明,财政补贴和税收优惠均能够激励企业数字化转型,相比于财政补贴,税收优惠对数字化转型的激励作用更强。并且这种激励作用存在明显的异质性,即对东部地区、成熟期企业的激励效果最为显著。进一步分析表明,财税政策对企业数字化转型的激励作用存在门槛效应,当其力度超过某一门槛值后,财税政策对企业数字化转型的正向作用开始减弱。另外,相比于“事前激励”的财政补贴,“事后激励”的税收优惠政策对于外部环境要求更低,具有更强的普适性。

“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标何以兼顾?

为兼顾“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标实现,文章构建了包含环境系统的NK-DSGE模型,同步引入财政收入与支出政策工具、货币政策工具以及碳税,在对中国季度宏观数据进行校准和估计的基础上,分析了宏观政策工具与碳税联合实施的政策效果,讨论了碳税税率变化、碳税规则变动对联合政策效果的影响及造成的社会福利损失。模拟结果显示,积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策与碳税配合对“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标的实现优势更大。其中,财政政策在促增长方面具有优势,货币政策在控制通货膨胀方面发挥重要作用,碳税政策在促进碳减排方面效果显著。经进一步研究发现,提高碳税税率会造成社会福利损失增加,政府可通过调整碳税规则、改变政策目标偏好实现对社会福利的帕累托改进。

宏观政策发力须解决好四个重要问题

当前宏观经济形势非常复杂,宏观政策已成为影响我国经济运行变化趋势的重要变量。宏观政策发力须解决好“针对什么”“机理是什么”“底线在哪里”“着力点在何处”四个重要问题。从风险理论来看,财政货币政策发力应转向“风险管理”,财政货币政策要对经济风险、财政风险、金融风险以及通胀风险进行权衡,基于风险权衡,拿捏好政策实施的时度效,避免过犹不及。财政货币政策发力的底线在于通胀率,着力点在于修复资产负债表损伤。

财税激励政策、绿色技术创新与工业企业碳强度

“双碳”目标背景下,如何降低能源消耗量大、碳排放高的工业企业碳强度成为关键。财税激励政策作为引导绿色低碳发展的重要政策工具,是推进企业碳强度治理必不可少的组成部分。研究以政府补助与税收优惠两种典型财税激励政策为切入点,选取2016—2019年中国工业上市公司的1 461个样本观测值为研究对象,构建有调节的中介效应面板模型,对财税激励政策的碳强度治理机制展开实证分析。研究表明:财税激励政策能够显著降低工业企业碳强度,通过激励企业绿色技术创新产生碳强度治理效应;对两种财税激励政策组合效果检验表明,二者在激励企业绿色技术创新过程中发挥互补作用;从宏微观结合的路径研究需要出发检验高管政治关联影响作用发现,高管政治关联削弱财税激励政策对于绿色技术创新的激励作用。行业异质性分析表明,两种财税激励政策对高科技行业碳强度降低作用更强,对高碳行业碳强度影响作用不显著。研究结论对于完善财税激励政策、引导工业企业通过绿色技术创新降低碳强度具有重要意义,为2060年前实现碳中和目标提供实现路径。

中国养老保险体系财政政策研究

养老保险是满足老年群体需求、促进社会公平、实现共同富裕的基本制度安排,财政政策是促进养老保险体系发展的重要保障。本文通过分析财政政策促进养老保险体系发展的具体实践,认为主要存在基本养老保险财政依赖程度偏高、财政支出结构有待优化,补充养老保险税优模式有待完善、政策公平普惠程度不足等问题。养老保险体系财政政策要与养老保险体系发展方向相适应,根据不同养老保险制度的功能定位和制度属性提供差异化的支持,强化对养老保险体系发展的引导功能。建议优化基本养老保险财政支出机制,深化基本养老保险自身改革;完善补充养老保险税收优惠政策,提升政策的公平性与普惠性。

财政货币政策协同:美国样本与中国路径

本文选择大国财政政策为研究对象,从美国财政政策的制度演变和货币政策协同两个维度进行金融史的回溯研究,得出结论:一是美国财政政策呈现制度性和理论性的演变;二是美联储投资美债受“赤字经济学”驱动,外国官方持有存在货币回流效应。在此基础上,本文提出策略建议:一是央行在公开市场上大量购买国债操作不应受理论约束而应评估政策效果;二是国债具有财政功能,购买/发行应体现财政和货币政策的协同;三是发挥基准功能、疏通传导梗阻是国债作为央行货币政策工具的前提条件;四是扩大境外官方长期持有人民币国债规模是大国货币演进的必要环节。

支持雄安新区企业科技创新的政策现状、问题与建议

[研究目的]设立河北雄安新区是我国的重大战略部署。研究和推进支持雄安新区高标准建设、高质量发展的政策举措,具有十分重要的战略意义。作为市场经济的基本单元,企业不仅是经济活动的主要参与者,也是技术进步的主要推动者。在新的全球化背景下,企业是科技创新的主体,企业科技创新能力已经成为国家(或区域)竞争力的核心要素之一。因此,分析和研究当前支持雄安新区企业科技创新的有关政策,对于高标准推进雄安新区建设和高质量发展具有十分重要的现实指导价值。[研究方法]基于政策文本,从财政政策、金融政策、税收政策、科技政策和人才政策五个方面对目前支持雄安新区企业科技创新的政策现状和问题进行了系统的分析。[研究结论]概括主要存在的问题包括:财政和金融政策多、税收等长期政策少;对企业基础研究缺乏明确的支持政策;人才政策有待优化。面向未来,提出了进一步支持雄安新区企业科技创新的政策建议:加大科技政策的支持力度,不断完善财政政策,进一步深化税收政策,统筹协调金融政策及大力发展社会研发机构。