Taking provincial panel data of China as the sample,this paper simulates and analyzes the potential effect of carbon emissions trading in China under the condition of unconstrained and constrained respectively.The res...Taking provincial panel data of China as the sample,this paper simulates and analyzes the potential effect of carbon emissions trading in China under the condition of unconstrained and constrained respectively.The results are as follows.(1)As the theoretical basis of carbon trading,the shadow price of carbon dioxide is inclined to rise generally.The absolute gap among provinces and that among eight regions tend to expand,but the relative gap tends to narrow.(2)With the reduction of national carbon intensity to the greatest degree as the aim,carbon trading could reduce the carbon intensity by 20.06%under the condition of given national GDP.If the strict constraint of national GDP is relaxed,and the constraint of economic growth and environment conservation of each region is imposed,carbon trading could reduce the carbon intensity by 22.20%.(3)The current overall promotion process of carbon intensity in China has achieved the phased goal of the Copenhagen Conference commitment.The interprovincial carbon trading could strongly boost the improvement of carbon intensity,and the general requirements of Copenhagen Conference could be satisfied.展开更多
基金A Major Bidding Project of National Social Science Fund“The Interconnection and Interoperability Strategy Research of Power between China and Neighboring Countries”(13&ZD168)China’s Postdoctoral Science Fund“Duality of Energy and Potential Effectiveness of China’s Carbon Emissions Trading”(2016T90166).The authors are grateful for the support of 333-research funding and the green blue project-training program in Jiangsu.
文摘Taking provincial panel data of China as the sample,this paper simulates and analyzes the potential effect of carbon emissions trading in China under the condition of unconstrained and constrained respectively.The results are as follows.(1)As the theoretical basis of carbon trading,the shadow price of carbon dioxide is inclined to rise generally.The absolute gap among provinces and that among eight regions tend to expand,but the relative gap tends to narrow.(2)With the reduction of national carbon intensity to the greatest degree as the aim,carbon trading could reduce the carbon intensity by 20.06%under the condition of given national GDP.If the strict constraint of national GDP is relaxed,and the constraint of economic growth and environment conservation of each region is imposed,carbon trading could reduce the carbon intensity by 22.20%.(3)The current overall promotion process of carbon intensity in China has achieved the phased goal of the Copenhagen Conference commitment.The interprovincial carbon trading could strongly boost the improvement of carbon intensity,and the general requirements of Copenhagen Conference could be satisfied.
