Cost-Benefit Assessment of Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Considering Corrosion Model Uncertainty

Owing to high costs and unnecessary inspections necessitated by the traditional inspection planning for ship structures, the risk-based inspection and repair planning should be investigated for the most cost-effective inspection. This paper aims to propose a cost-benefit assessment model of risk-based inspection and repair planning for ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. Then, the benefit-cost ratio is taken to be an index for the selection of the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The planning problem is formulated as an optimization problem where the benefit-cost ratio for the expected lifetime is maximized with a constraint on the minimum acceptalbe reliability index. To account for the effect of corrosion model uncertainty on the cost-benefit assessment, two corrosion models, namgly, Paik＇ s model and Guedes Soares＇ model, are adopted for analysis. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. Sensitivity studies are also providet. The results indicate that the proposed method of risk-based cost-benefit analysis can effectively integrate the economy with reliability of the inspection and repair planning. A balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs with the proposed method, which is very. effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. It is pointed out that the corrosion model uncertainty and parametric uncertaintg have a significant impact on the cost-benefit assessment of inspection and repair planning.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Scale Pig Breeding in Shandong Province Based on Modified Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model

According to the relevant statistical data in National Agricultural cost-benefit Data Compilation(2001- 2013),we use the modified entropy weight- TOPSIS model to research the cost-benefit status of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province from the perspective of comparing it with that of the entire country and 9 other main pig producing areas. The results show that compared with the national average,the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is lower,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is significantly improved; the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is basically the same as that in 9 other main pig producing areas,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is higher; the output value of main products and the purchase price of piglet are two major bottlenecks restricting the cost-benefit improvement of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province.

Model of Cost-benefit Flow in Six Green Projects in China

From the point of cost-benefit flow and with the Six Green Projects in China as the case and background, it is criticized that the current natural resource and environmental management and the policies in China have some problems unsolved since the model of cost-benefit flow is still centralized and mainly in an administrative way in spite of many efforts made theoretically and practically. It is suggested that a new model based on market-oriented economy from the point of cost-benefit flow with Six Green Projects Management and Policies System consist of complete natural reserve (NR). Management system included environmental nature reserves in addition to biodiversity nature reserve, paid using nature resources, an environmental conservation and construction industry and renewable resource production incentive system that turn the direct administration and operation to management and services. The detail figure of the new model of cost-benefit flow is provided and the main points related are discussed in this paper.

An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Benefits and Costs of Wastewater and Solid Waste Management to Improve the Living Environment: The Citarum River in West Java, Indonesia

Absence of wastewater and solid waste facilities impacts the quality of life of many people in developing countries. Implementation of these facilities will benefit public health, water quality, livelihoods and property value. Additional benefits may result from the potential recovery of valuable resources from wastewater and solid waste, such as compost, energy, phosphorus, plastics and paper. Improving water quality through implementation of wastewater and solid waste interventions requires, among others, an analysis of i) sources of pollution, ii) mitigating measures and resource recovery potentials and their effect on water quality and health, and iii) benefits and costs of interventions. We present an integrated approach to evaluate costs and benefits of domestic and industrial wastewater and solid waste interventions. To support a policy maker in formulating a cost and environmentally effective approach, we quantified the impact of these interventions on 1) water quality improvement, 2) resource recovery potential, and 3) monetized benefits versus costs. The integration of technical, hydrological, agronomical and socio-economic elements to derive these three tangible outputs in a joint approach is a novelty. The approach is demonstrated using the heavily polluted Indonesian Upper Citarum River in the Bandung region. Domestic interventions, applying simple (anaerobic filter) technologies, were economically most attractive with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 3.2, but could not reach target water quality standards. To approach the target water quality, both advanced domestic (nutrient removal systems) and industrial wastewater treatment interventions were required, leading to a BCR of 2. We showed that benefits from selling recovered resources represent here an additional driver for improving water quality and outweigh the additional costs for resource recovery facilities. While included benefits captured some of the major items, these may have been undervalued. Based on these findings, water quality interventions justify their costs and are socially and economically beneficial.

An Integrated Socio-Economic and Ecological Framework for Evaluating the Societal Costs and Benefits of Fishing Activities in the Pearl River Delta

This paper puts forward a model of Pearl River Delta (PRD) fishery in the South China Sea (SCS) that integrates the ecological, social and economic costs and benefits of fisheries activities in a multidisciplinary framework. In particular, an integrated ECOST model is composed of links between an ecological model constructed by Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software and a region Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then the costs and benefits of five fishing methods are compared from economic, ecological and social three dimensions base on the ECOST model. The potential effects of fishing effort reduction on fishing communication are explored by a series of dynamic simulations for a 10-year period. Key results from prediction (2005-2015) and policy simulations illustrate that fisheries of PRE are geared toward short-term economic profits at the expense of ecological gains and the whole group of societal benefits associated with fishing. However, the status quo can be improved to better levels by reducing fishing efforts.

碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论:IV.收益统筹

面对巨大的气候变化损害以及高额的减排行动成本,如何在多时期、多主体框架下统筹经济发展与减排行动,协同推进发展与减排,成为全球气候治理中的关键议题。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,构建了收益统筹理论。该理论在综合集成时间统筹、空间统筹、效率统筹相关理论与方法基础上,以最优经济增长为核心,将碳排放问题引入长期宏观经济分析中,深入探析经济发展与减排行动二者间的复杂关系,构建了经济-气候双向耦合的中国气候变化综合评估模型,并设计了多区跨期优化福利函数,实现发展与减排的统筹。基于碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论,应用中国气候变化综合评估模型C3IAM,明确了未来全球及各区域最优减排路径,并提出了各国及国家内部减排任务分配方案,科学回答了碳减排系统工程的减多少、何时减、谁来减、如何减、何效果等关键问题,为统筹发展与减排提供方法基础。

Development of a Methodology to Evaluate Projects Using Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models

The identification and selection of performance measures play an important role in any decision making process. Additionally, millions of dollars are spent on appropriate planning and identification of prospective projects for improvements. As a result, current practitioners spend a lot of time and money in prioritizing their limited resources. This research proposes two tasks: 1) estimation of performance measures using a simulation based on dynamic traffic assignment model, and 2) development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects based on benefit-cost analysis. The model, DynusT, is used for the Las Vegas roadway network during the morning peak time period. A comparative analysis of the results from proposed methodology with existing California Benefit-Cost (Cal-B/C) models is presented. The results indicate that the new methodology provides an accurate benefit-cost ratio of the projects. In addition, it signifies that the existing Cal-B/C models underestimate the benefits associated with the prospective project improvements. The major contribution of this research is the simultaneous estimation of the performance measures and development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects. This is helpful to decision makers to rank and prioritize future projects in a cost-effective manner. Planning and operational policies for the transportation systems can be developed based on the gained insights from this study.

Component Analysis and Calculation for Social Benefits of UHV Assessment

With the rapid development of the UHV power grid, evaluation of the economic and social benefits of the UHV power grid is conducive to guiding the planning and construction of UHV power grid. At present economic benefit evaluation system of the UHV power grid is driving to maturity stage on the whole at home and abroad, but it invariably tends to regard social benefits as part of economic benefits, without evaluating social benefit separately. The social benefit evaluation model of UHV power grid is built in case of sufficient investigation. The differentials between social benefit and social cost are calculated respectively by three kinds of solutions according to the constructed social cost evaluation index system and social benefits evaluation index system, conclusion that UHV power grid transmission has better social benefits can be reached by contrastively analyzing the social three kinds of solutions corresponding to benefits. At last, the evaluation model and method are verified and analyzed through the analysis of engineering projects.

基于绿色建筑全寿命周期的增量成本与收益模型研究

基于绿色建筑全寿命周期理论,以现有绿色建筑评价标准为基础,分析绿色建筑全寿命周期内增量成本与增量收益,构建经济性评价模型,并对某绿色建筑项目进行评估与分析,打破绿色建筑“高消费”的固有模式,推动绿色建筑市场化、普及化,促进绿色建筑发展,加速低碳经济转型。

不同规模生猪养殖的成本收益及全要素生产率的动态实证分析

探究不同生猪养殖模式的盈利能力和全要素生产率,对于生猪行业高质量发展和保障猪肉有效供应具有重要意义。该文利用2009-2019年的省级面板数据,对不同养殖模式的成分收益进行分析,并利用DEA模型的Malmquist指数方法,对不同生猪养殖模式的全要素生产率进行测度及分解。结果发现:规模养殖模式具有成本比较优势,规模养殖利润高于散养,呈现周期性波动,且散养模式波动最大。不同养殖模式的全要素生产率都表现为略微提升,这主要是由于技术变化的改善,且技术效率却呈现总体下降的特征,其下降是纯技术效率和规模效率的双拖累作用所致。基于此,提出了规模化养殖、政策补贴和提高全要素生产率的建议。

岸电成本优化模型构建及边际条件经济性分析

针对岸电建设中,电网公司、政府、港口及船东盈利能力提升问题,文章构建了四方成本效益模型。在岸电设备改造的补贴率、设备年利用率及电价等边际条件下,研究了岸电设备政府补贴率、电网公司电价、岸电年利用时间与各方成本效益之间的关系。以某港口岸电建设为数据样本,利用所构建的成本效益模型进行了案例分析。分析结果表明,电网公司利润直接由港口岸电使用电价决定,政府补贴率在0~30%时,政府收益明显下降,港口利润逐渐升高。随着岸电利用小时数从2000h增加到4000h,船舶边际电价会逐渐下降,船舶岸基供电服务价格也相应下降,最优边际电价随着岸电利用小时数的增加而由变化剧烈到逐渐平缓。若岸电年利用时间低压400h,四方都会亏损。研究成果对港口岸电建设成本效益预测具有重要的参考价值。

基于P-E-R和成本收益模型的青岛市适度人口规模研究

基于P-E-R模型,选取反映经济发展和资源利用水平的各项指标,通过加权分析建立回归模型,对青岛市适度人口规模进行了研究,同时从成本收益角度分析构建了适度人口测度模型考察了青岛市的城镇化质量,以新型城镇化发展为焦点,为应对未来人口增长提供了资源配置方案及建议.结果表明:青岛市经济人口承载力优势显著,明显高于资源人口承载力;现阶段青岛市人口发展符合适度人口规模,人口增长存在一定空间,但人口增长速度低于全国水平;预计到2035年,青岛市人口约为1200万人.

基于价值工程的装配式建筑增量成本-效益模型研究

当前的工程实践表明,装配式建筑能大幅度减少现场施工人员数量、缩短工期,但装配式建筑中会产生增量成本,增量成本是影响装配式建筑大规模推广的重要原因。通过分析装配式建筑在施工过程中的增量成本组成要素,并指出利用装配式建筑会产生增量效益。提出一种基于价值工程的增量成本-效益模型(VCF),通过VCF模型可以真实地反映出在利用装配式建筑施工的过程中设计、施工、运营环节的增量成本和增量效益,通过具体案例对比增量成本与增量效益之间的差异,引导施工企业正确评估装配式建筑的成本及其潜在的效益,从而更好地促进装配式建筑行业发展。

胸外科微量注射泵和输液泵前瞻性效益评估模型构建及应用价值研究

目的:构建前瞻性效益评估模型,探究其应用于胸外科微量注射泵和输液泵设备管理的效果和价值。方法:通过数据采集、数据分析和数据应用3个阶段构建前瞻性效益评估模型。选取2021—2023年重庆市人民医院胸外科临床在用的11台医用注射泵(6台微量注射泵和5台输液泵),将2021年1—12月设备使用期间采用传统管理方法,2022年1月至2023年12月设备使用期间采用前瞻性效益评估模型管理(简称前瞻性管理),对比两种管理方法的设备使用效率和设备运行效益增幅情况。结果:采用前瞻性管理方法的设备使用效率中设备完好率、年开机率、收益率和利用率分别为(0.98±0.12)%、(2.14±0.28)%、(1.31±0.19)%和(25.14±1.27)%,均高于传统管理方法,差异有统计学意义(t=3.525、3.463、7.591、11.779,P<0.05);采用前瞻性管理方法的设备管理费用增幅、成本效益增幅和社会效益增幅分别为(0.65±0.23)%、(5.92±1.14)%和(6.31±1.29)%,管理费用增幅低于传统管理方法,而成本效益增幅和社会效益增幅高于传统管理方法,差异有统计学意义(t=3.099、3.763、4.798,P<0.05)。结论:采用前瞻性效益评估模型对胸外科微量注射泵和输液泵设备进行管理,能够提高设备使用效率,强化设备管理质量,提升设备效益增幅。

适应性预期下大豆生产决策的影响研究——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

大豆播种面积波动变化是制约我国大豆自给水平提升的重要原因之一。文章结合国内大豆供需新形势,依据适应性预期理论,选取2012—2022年黑龙江和河南等10个大豆主产省份的大豆种植数据,构建现实预期和比较预期动态面板数据模型,探究农户适应预期下的种植行为,并实证分析各预期因素对我国大豆生产决策的影响。实证结果表明:(1)农户在种植决策上的理性表现为种植行为和种植结构比例选择的惯性,且往期种植面积、预期价格和预期单产的种植“惯性”作用在大豆种植决策中更为明显。(2)国产大豆亩均收益“低”、成本“高”的绝对和相对劣势凸显,同时大豆收益和成本的变化对其种植户的种植决策更具有影响力度。基于此,文章认为提高大豆单产、稳定市场价格、优化成本结构和创新优势产区大豆种植生产激励政策均可有效地促进大豆扩种,稳定大豆播种面积。

阿贝西利、哌柏西利和瑞波西利一线治疗激素受体阳性晚期乳腺癌的成本-效用分析

目的从中国医疗卫生体系角度分析阿贝西利、哌柏西利和瑞波西利联用芳香化酶抑制剂(AI)一线治疗激素受体阳性(HR+)晚期乳腺癌的经济性。方法采用分区生存模型对HR+晚期乳腺癌患者20年的疾病进程进行模拟,模拟周期为4周,模型产出为总成本和质量调整生命年(QALY),以5%的贴现率对成本和效果进行贴现。通过系统检索相关临床试验进行网状Meta分析,获取阿贝西利、哌柏西利、瑞波西利联合AI的疗效参数,以MONALEESA-2试验安慰剂组的生存曲线为基础进行生存拟合和外推。计算3种治疗方案的增量成本-效果比(ICER)和增量净货币效益(INMB)以评估其经济性,意愿支付阈值为3倍我国2023年人均国内生产总值(GDP);采用单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析检测各个参数对结果的影响以及增量分析结果的稳健性。结果经过20年的模拟,与哌柏西利+AI方案相比,瑞波西利+AI方案的ICER为58558.38元/QALY,INMB为62988.20元;与瑞波西利+AI方案相比,阿贝西利+AI方案的ICER为264928.34元/QALY,INMB为344.84元。单因素敏感性分析显示,阿贝西利+AI方案对比瑞波西利+AI方案的增量分析结果不稳健。概率敏感性分析证实,当阈值为1~3倍我国2023年人均GDP时,瑞波西利+AI方案成为最经济方案的概率最高。结论当阈值为1~3倍我国2023年人均GDP时,瑞波西利+AI方案一线治疗中国HR+晚期乳腺癌患者,较阿贝西利+AI方案和哌柏西利+AI方案更可能成为最经济的方案。

分布式光伏发电项目的效益评价案例分析

阐述分布式光伏项目成本模型的经济特征、效益指数的校正,得出发电净现值模型,并应用此模型对分布式光伏项目的经济性进行测量与比较。

ADVANCES IN DECISION ANALYSIS AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MANAGING LARGE-SCALE ENTERPRISES IN A VOLATILE WORLD: INTEGRATING BENEFITS, OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS AND RISKS (BOCR) WITH THE BUSINESS MOTIVATION MODEL (BMM)

Over the past few decades, innovations in Information and Communication Technologies （ICT） have led to a significant increase in the complexity of enterprise information systems. This has led to new challenges for enterprise architects, systems engineers, business managers and other decision makers who must cope with the complexity of business plans and processes （particularly automated engineering processes）. In order to better manage this complexity, the Business Rule Group （BRG） has put forth the Business Motivation Model （BMM）. The original BMM uses a SWOT （Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat） decision analysis approach. However, the SWOT framework contains significant limitations with respect to decision making and ICT risks, hampering the decision making ability of enterprise architects, business managers, engineers, and other decision makers. The AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） and ANP （Analytic Network Process） are among the most widely used decision making tools： they commonly implement a Benefit - Opportunity - Cost - Risk （BOCR） analysis to improve the effectiveness of business decision making. A new approach is put forth that replaces the original SWOT assessment with an ANP-based BOCR analysis. As well, the original BMM is modified and applied in a Component Architecture Framework （CAF）.

电动汽车充换电站的成本效益模型及敏感性分析

电动汽车充换电站(battery charging and swapping station,BCSS)是中国电动汽车应用的重要基础设施之一,得到了广泛关注和示范推广。BCSS的成本收益模型对BCSS商业化推广是至关重要的,文中探讨了电动汽车BCSS的组成结构和运营模式,选择以电池租赁运营模式的BCSS为研究对象,考虑了其投资成本、运营和维护费用、人工薪酬等成本及充换电服务等收益,建立了基于净现值动态评价指标的电动汽车BCSS成本效益模型。最后以中国某大型电动汽车充换示范电站为实例,分析了该电站在全寿命周期内的成本收益模型,并进行了敏感性分析,得出了影响BCSS收益的关键因素依次为充换电服务价格、电池租赁费用、购电价格等。该模型及分析结果为电动汽车BCSS商业化运行提供了成本收益评估和决策依据。

基于“增量法”下的电网投资风险评估模型

研究了电网投资中的影响供电企业效益的风险变量,根据变量物理意义构造概率分布函数,改变了传统的电网改造技术经济评价方法中把售电量、售电电价、购电电价、供电可靠率、线损率等因素作为固定值处理的做法。在此基础上,提出了一种市场环境下的电网投资改造项目的风险评价方法,利用“增量法”建立风险评价模型,计算出计及各类风险因素的项目净现值的期望值和方差,量化电网投资风险。最后通过案例分析表明,该评估模型能较好处理评估中的各类不确定因素,定量评估项目风险,是一种行之有效的、适合电网投资改造项目风险评估的方法。