Cost Risk Appraisal： An Application of Project RiskManagement Process in Libyan Construction Projects

Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.

Evaluation of Medical Costs of Kidney Diseases and Risk Factors in Japan

Background: Kidney (renal) diseases and dialysis are among the most costly disorders and represent a worldwide burden. In this study, we evaluate the medical costs for individuals with kidney diseases and risk factors for the diseases in Japan. Data and Methods: The dataset used contained 113,979 medical checkups and 3,172,066 medical cost records obtained from 48,022 individuals in one health insurance society. The sample period was April 2013 to March 2016. We evaluated the distribution of all medical costs, and those of kidney diseases specifically. Then the power transformation Tobit model was used to remove the effects of other variables. Finally, a probit analysis was used to analyze the risk factors. Results: In 0.25% of all cases, individuals were diagnosed with kidney diseases. An individual with kidney disease cost 14.5 times more than those without kidney disease. If the diseases progressed into chronic kidney disease (CKD), the medical costs increased substantially. Even disregarding various characteristics of individuals, this conclusion did not vary. We found important risk factors included diabetes and blood pressure problems. In particular, an individual with both factors had a high probability of developing kidney disease. Conclusion: Kidney diseases are much costlier than other diseases. Screening high-risk individuals, educating patients, and ensuring that treatment begins at an early stage are critically important to controlling medical costs. Limitations: The dataset was observatory, and the sample period was only 3 years.

Research on Cost Overrun Risk of Construction Phase of Vietnam Highway International Contracting Project

Recently, the highway construction projects increase rapidly in Vietnam and most of them are international contracting projects. It results serious negative influence on the local government and enterprises that the common cost overrun of projects, and the risk factors of it is different in the different countries, different stages and projects types. So in this paper, we generate an evaluation index system of highway construction projects cost overrun risk in Vietnam in the perspective of different project participants, and also evaluate the effects of these factors in method of regression analysis. The empirical results confirmed 7 main factors that have aggravated cost overrun risk in construction stages, e.g. survey and design scheme risk. In final, the corresponding suggestions are proposed to reduce the project cost overrun risk.

Investment risk of rural family education: From the persepective of educational cost and income

With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become the main body of rural education investment decisions. The relationship between educational cost and income plays a major role in the rural family education investment. Based on the current situation of rural education in our country, this paper focuses on the risk of rural education investment and rural education costs and benefits, and then puts forward scientific, operational measures and suggestions.

NPV risk simulation of an open pit gold mine project under the O'Hara cost model by using Gas

This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Buildings in the Extended Urban Region of Athens and Comparison with the Repair Cost

A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.

考虑潜在溃坝的水库大坝运行成本和收益量化方法

针对水库大坝逐渐老化、自身风险和运行成本不断增加的情况,为了进一步明确水库大坝运行的经济性,构建了一种考虑潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化模型。首先,综合考虑大坝潜在溃坝的影响,根据ISM理论明确了水库大坝运行成本与收益影响因素之间的相互作用关系,确定了水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化指标;其次,基于DEMATEL法分析了各因素之间的相互作用程度,明确了各成本与收益指标之间相对重要程度;最后,结合技术经济学理论,计算了潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本和综合收益。将所提模型应用于国内某水库,计算了该水库的运行综合成本和综合收益,并对其经济性进行了分析,结果表明:在考虑潜在溃坝损失的情况下,该水库运行综合成本为743.62万元,综合收益为10911.83万元,收益成本比为14.67,运行综合收益远大于运行综合成本,创收能力良好,经济效益显著。

Risk stratification for coronary artery disease in multi-ethnic populations:Are there broader considerations for cost efficiency?

Coronary artery disease(CAD) screening and diagnosis are core cardiac specialty services.From symptoms,autopsy correlations supported reductions in coronary blood flow and dynamic epicardial and microcirculatory coronaries artery disease as etiologies.While angina remains a clinical diagnosis,most cases require correlation with a diagnostic modality.At the onset of the evidence building process much research,now factored into guidelines were conducted among population and demographics that were homogenous and often prior to newer technologies being available.Today we see a more diverse multi-ethnic population whose characteristics and risks may not consistently match the populations from which guideline evidence is derived.While it would seem veryunlikely that for the majority,scientific arguments against guidelines would differ,however from a translational perspective,there will be populations who differ and importantly there are cost-efficacy questions,e.g.,the most suitable first-line tests or what parameters equate to an adequate test.This article reviews non-invasive diagnosis of CAD within the context of multi-ethnic patient populations.

The Application of Transaction Cost Theory in Supply Chain Management

In the context of globalization and digitalization, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management has become increasingly important. As business environments grow more complex, enterprises face challenges in effectively managing supply chain transaction costs. This paper systematically explores the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management, covering key areas such as supplier selection, supply chain integration, and risk management. The research finds that supplier evaluation models based on transaction costs can help enterprises make more comprehensive selection decisions. In terms of supply chain integration, transaction cost theory provides important guidance for vertical integration decisions and the design of collaboration mechanisms. The application of digital technologies has both reduced traditional transaction costs and introduced new cost considerations. Faced with emerging risks such as cybersecurity and geopolitical issues, enterprises need to adopt dynamic transaction cost management strategies. In the future, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management will likely place greater emphasis on interdisciplinary integration and sustainable development, providing theoretical support for enterprises to achieve efficient, flexible, and sustainable supply chain management in the changing global business environment.

大型土石方工程造价控制

通过对大型土石方工程造价的影响因素进行剖析和研究,分析了大型土石方工程造价控制过程中存在的主要风险点和难点,揭示其在造价控制中面临的困境,提出相应的控制对策,以便更好地应对土石方工程造价控制中的各种风险和挑战,为大型土石方工程的成本控制和风险管理提供可行性建议和实用指导,从而提高工程项目的运作效率和经济效益。

社会失信环境与企业违约风险——来自城市失信被执行人的经验证据

基于2010—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,探究了社会失信环境对企业违约风险的影响及其机制。研究表明,社会失信环境对企业违约风险产生显著的正向效应。机制检验发现,社会失信环境通过增加代理成本、加剧融资约束与提高经营风险三条路径来加大企业违约风险。异质性分析显示,社会失信环境对企业违约风险的正向影响在管理层激励较小、分析师关注度较低、数字金融发展水平较低及经济政策不确定性较高的情境下表现更为突出。研究从社会失信环境视角探讨了企业违约风险的影响因素,丰富了社会失信环境的微观经济后果,同时为政府部门进一步深化社会信用体系建设,防范与化解企业违约风险提供了经验证据。

The Strategies for Market Risk Management in International Shipping

International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then, this industry has experienced market downturn for a long period which was considered to be the longest period of depression in the history. This paper mainly focuses on the key market risks in international shipping including cyclical fluctuation risk, cost risk, freight rate volatility risk, and competition risk. It analyses the source of these market risks, and identifies some strategies to cope with these market risks. In the meantime, Maersk and China Ocean Shipping Group （COSCO）, the world leading international shipping companies, are taken as two cases. Their strategies in market risk management are analyzed, which enable the reader to learn from their success and failure. Based on the international experience in market risk management in shipping industry as well as the real practice of Maersk and COSCO, this paper provides useful guidance for shipping companies to reduce market risks, overcome market downturn, and improve competitiveness.

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.

Highway Planning and Design in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China: A Cost–Safety Balance Perspective

Engineering designs for mountainous highways emphasize compliance checking to ensure safety. However, relying solely on compliance checking may lead designers to minimize costs at the expense of high risk indicators, since the overall risk level of the highway design is unknown to the designers. This paper describes a method for the simultaneous consideration of traffic safety risks and the associated cost burden related to the appropriate planning and design of a mountainous highway. The method can be carried out in four steps: First, the highway design is represented by a new parametric framework to extract the key design variables that affect not only the life-cycle cost but also the operational safety. Second, the relationship between the life-cycle cost and the operational safety risk factors is established in the cost-estimation functions. Third, a fault tree analysis (FTA) is introduced to identify the traffic risk factors from the design variables. The safety performance of the design solutions is also assessed by the generalized linear-regression model. Fourth, a theory of acceptable risk analysis is introduced to the traffic safety assessment, and a computing algorithm is proposed to solve for a cost-efficient optimal solution within the range of acceptable risk, in order to help decision-makers. This approach was applied and examined in the Sichuan–Tibet Highway engineering project, which is located in a complex area with a large elevation gradient and a wide range of mountains. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly improved both the safety and cost performance of the project in the study area.

Optimal Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Ship Hull Structure

Various structures such as marine structures age over time. In order to always maintain safety conditions, maintenance processes including inspection and repair should be implemented on them. Corrosion and fatigue cracks are two main factors that reduce the ultimate strength of the ship's hull girder over time and thus increase the probability and risk of failure. At the time of inspection,the structural conditions must be checked so that, if necessary, the required repairs can be done on it. The main objective of this paper is to provide optimized maintenance plans of the ship structure based on probabilistic concepts with regard to corrosion and fatigue cracks. Maintenance activities increase the operational costs of ships; therefore, it is advisable to inspect and repair in the optimal times. Optimal maintenance planning of the ship structure can be conducted by formulating and solving a multi-objective optimization problem. The use of risk as a structural performance indicator has become more common in recent years. The objective functions of the optimization problem include minimizing the structure's lifecycle maintenance costs, including inspection and repair costs, and also minimizing the maximum risk of structural failure during the ship's life. In the following,to achieve better responses, reliability index has been added to the problem as the third objective function. The multi-objective optimization problem is solved using genetic algorithms. The proposed risk-based approach is applied to the hull structure of a tanker ship.

The Analysis of Credit Using and Rationing under Farmer 's Risk Attitudes Difference

This paper conducts a survey of 237 rural households in Zhangjiagang City,identifies farmers' risk attitude through ELCE method and problem design and empirically studies the relationship between risk attitudes and credit rationing by utilizing Probit and Logit model. The results show that farmers' risk attitude and credit rationing are in a significant positive correlation. The stronger farmers' risk aversion is,the more serious the demanded credit rationing becomes. Such risk attitude determines the risk cost and risk premium,thus affecting the credit behavior and credit rationing degree. In addition,distance between farmers' residence far the city and their land amount have a positive significant influence on credit rationing,while farmers' education level,income,family labor force have a negative significant effect on credit rationing. Based on these findings,the paper further analyzes the relationship between farmers' credit using and credit rationing as to farmers with different risk attitudes. Measures to relieve the farmer's credit rationing must be taken from government,financial institutions and farmers,respectively.

GMOs in animal agriculture: time to consider both costs and benefits in regulatory evaluations

In 2012, genetically engineered （GE） crops were grown by 17.3 million farmers on over 170 million hectares. Over 70% of harvested GE biomass is fed to food producing animals, making them the major consumers of GE crops for the past 15 plus years. Prior to commercialization, GE crops go through an extensive regulatory evaluation. Over one hundred regulatory submissions have shown compositional equivalence, and comparable levels of safety, between GE crops and their conventional counterparts. One component of regulatory compliance is whole GE food/feed animal feeding studies. Both regulatory studies and independent peer-reviewed studies have shown that GE crops can be safely used in animal feed, and rDNA fragments have never been detected in products （e.g. milk, meat, eggs） derived from animals that consumed GE feed. Despite the fact that the scientific weight of evidence from these hundreds of studies have not revealed unique risks associated with GE feed, some groups are calling for more animal feeding studies, including long-term rodent studies and studies in target livestock species for the approval of GE crops. It is an opportune time to review the results of such studies as have been done to date to evaluate the value of the additional information obtained. Requiring long-term and target animal feeding studies would sharply increase regulatory compliance costs and prolong the regulatory process associated with the commercialization of GE crops. Such costs may impede the development of feed crops with enhanced nutritional characteristics and durability, particularly in the local varieties in small and poor developing countries. More generally it is time for regulatory evaluations to more explicitly consider both the reasonable and unique risks and benefits associated with the use of both GE plants and animals in agricultural systems, and weigh them against those associated with existing systems, and those of regulatory inaction. This would represent a shift away from a GE evaluation process that currently focuses only on risk assessment and identifying ever diminishing marginal hazards, to a regulatory approach that more objectively evaluates and communicates the likely impact of approving a new GE plant or animal on agricultural production systems.

企业数字化如何影响创新风险?——来自中国制造业的经验证据

数字化赋予传统企业新的发展契机,同时重塑研发流程和重构研发组织带来的双重成本不确定性引发了企业创新风险的变动。基于2011—2020年中国沪深A股制造业上市企业数据,结合面板固定效应模型,实证检验企业数字化对创新风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)企业数字化对创新风险存在显著的U型影响,即随着企业数字化水平的提高,其对创新风险会产生先抑制后促进的影响;(2)企业数字化对创新风险的影响具有明显的异质性,在国有企业、大型企业、东部和市场化程度较高地区的企业样本中抑制作用更为明显;(3)成本不确定性是企业数字化作用于创新风险的主要机制。企业在数字化前应进行风险评估与规划,在数字化后要根据所处数字化阶段实施差异化的研发支持措施;政府部门应当实施针对性的数字化政策,以有效应对企业数字化引致的创新风险困境。

货币政策不确定性与企业债务成本

降低企业债务融资成本是促进实体经济高质量发展的重要举措。选取2007—2020年A股非金融上市公司数据,系统考察货币政策不确定性对企业债务成本的影响。研究结果表明,货币政策不确定性与企业债务成本显著正相关。影响机制分析发现,债务违约概率是货币政策不确定性影响企业债务成本的中间变量,即货币政策不确定性上升会增加企业债务违约概率,从而导致企业债务成本上升。异质性分析发现,货币政策不确定性对非国有企业、小规模企业及非周期性行业企业债务成本的正向影响更加明显。研究表明降低货币政策不确定性对于缓解企业债务成本压力具有重要作用。

中国碳排放权交易机制与实践:基于微观企业股权资本成本的视角

碳排放权交易市场作为企业减排增效的重要机制,引发了资本市场投资者对企业碳排放问题的关注,进而可能影响投资者对企业的风险评估与价值判断。手工整理中国各试点碳市场的控排企业名录发现:碳排放权交易机制显著提升了控排企业的权益资本成本,主要机制为投资者碳风险关注,但该市场机制存在明显的效应边界。进一步发现,当碳市场的初始配额实施部分竞价拍卖和非履约主体交易更为活跃,产品市场竞争程度更高和企业所在城市空气污染更为严重,以及企业非财务绩效表现更好时,碳排放权交易机制对企业权益资本成本的提升作用更为明显。研究结论有助于更为全面的评估我国碳市场建设的经济后果,为该低碳环保政策的持续推广提供理论依据与经验参考。