Lower Cotton Price Forecast Released

Based on current supply anddemand projections, ICAC has re-duced the forecast of the season-average Cotlook A Index in 2008/09from 68 U.S. cents per pound

Cotton Prices Likely to Trade Inversely to Dollar

After briefly breaching 65 cents/lb, the December contract fell sharply over a few of days in mid-August before finding support near 58 cents/lb. In the weeks since, December futures have gradually drifted upwards,

Seminar on“Cotton Price and Market”Outlook and Expectation for 2011

Sponsored by Cotton Council International and co-organized by the Hong Kong Association of Textile Bleachers,Dyers,Printers and Finishers and the Hong Kong Cotton Spinners Association,the seminar on"Cotton Price and Market:Outlook and Expectation for 2011"was held at the Clothing

Cotton Prices Will Get Cheaper Again!

The market continued to move sideways to higher, depending on which month we are looking at. While December closed within its narrow 66.42 to 69.05 cents range for the 27th consecutive session, the widening spread has allowed March to display a steady uptrend over the last couple of weeks, settling today at its highest level since October 2008.

International Cotton Prices Likely to Rise in 2006/07

June 1,2006, from the International Cotton Advisory Committee: The 2005/06 average Cotlook A Index is projected at 56 cents per pound,8% higher than last season, and market fundamentals suggest that cotton prices may increase further in 2006/07. World cotton production is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons, while demand is

Soaring Cotton Prices to Make Manufacturing Difficult

With manufacturing slowly recovering amid improving economic condi-tions, cotton demand has increased prompting more orders among mills. However, with a deficient supply of cotton in the market, prices extend

The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

Comparative Analysis of Discovery Function of Cotton Future Price among Different Regions——A Case Study of Xinjiang

Through comparative analysis, We research the relationship between cotton future price and cotton spot price in different regions, in order to formulate corresponding strategies in different regions under the new situation. We use ADF unit root test, E-G two-step cointegration test, Granger causality test, and other research methods in Eviews 5.0 statistical software, to empirically study the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China; the cotton future price plays unidirectional role in guiding cotton spot price in Xinjiang and cotton spot price in China. The discovery function of cotton future price plays much greater role in the cotton market of China than in the cotton market of Xinjiang.

Cotton Market Fundamentals ＆ Price Outlook

Recent price movement All benchmark prices except the CC Index increased over the past month.Prices for the March NY futures contract surged in late December,rising from75 cents/lb to just below 80 cents/lb.Following that round of increases,

Cotton Market Fundamentals ＆ Price Outlook

Recent price movement Several benchmark prices increased over the past month.NY futures,the A Index,and Pakistani spot prices all rose a few cents/lb,while the CC Index and Indian spot prices were stable.·The March NY futures contract was the most actively traded contract over the past month.Prices for March futures trended higher from late November through early December,

Dynamic Relation Mechanism between Cotton Future Price and Stock Price of Related Listed Companies

The Dynamic relation mechanism between ZCE cotton futures price and related listed company stock price has been studied based on the metastock historical data in January 1st,2007 to September 1st,2010,Johansen co-integration analysis,Vector error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method.The results indicated that:long-term equilibrium relationship existed between ZCE cotton futures price and Xinsai share stock price while which changed in the same tendency and speed in the long-term.Cotton futures price is the main reason for the changing of Xinsai share stock price.The lead-lag relationship in changing course had been confirmed that existed between ZCE cotton futures price and the Xinsai share stock price.Meanwhile,the forward pass mechanism of price changing information had been found only from the ZCE cotton futures market to the stock market while showing asymmetry.Conclusions of the study can be used for cotton and related corporate to hedge business risks by the cotton price changes.

Analysis on China Cotton Market

China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.

NY futures & A Index turn lower Chinese prices unchanged

2015.5 Recent price movement After trending higher from midMarch through the end of April,values for NY futures and the A Index turned lower in May.Chinese prices have been stable,while Indian and Pakistani prices increased.Prices for the nearby July contract(NY futures)met resistance near 68 cents/

政策干预对国内外粮棉价格溢出效应的影响——基于进口规模快速增长背景

通过构建外生政策影响下的VAR-BEKK-MVGARCH-DUMMY模型,利用2000年1月至2021年12月的月度数据,分析了进口规模对玉米、棉花国内外价格溢出效应的影响,政策实施对玉米、大豆、棉花国内外价格溢出效应的影响。研究发现,进口规模扩大并未对玉米、棉花国内外价格溢出效应产生显著影响;不同政策实施对国内外粮棉价格溢出效应的影响存在差异,其中,临时收储政策对粮棉价格干预最大,其影响程度较强,目标价格补贴和“市场化收购+生产者补贴”政策对粮棉价格干预较弱,其影响程度也相对较弱;政策实施对不同农产品国内外价格溢出效应的影响存在差异,大豆开放程度最高,其影响最强,棉花开放程度次之,其影响相对较弱,而玉米开放程度最低,其影响也最弱。为此,应在确定粮棉储备合理规模,打好支持保护政策“组合拳”,提高统筹利用国际国内市场、资源能力等方面着力,确保中国粮食安全和重要农产品市场稳定。

基于VAR模型的棉花贸易与棉价的动态关系研究

有效应对复杂多变的棉花贸易市场形势、维持棉价稳定对于实现我国棉花产业健康发展、保障棉花安全具有重要意义。本文运用VAR模型,探究棉花进出口贸易与新疆棉花价格间的动态关系,从“贸易-价格”的视角分析棉花发展局势。结果表明:短期内,棉花进口量与新疆棉价是棉花出口量变动的原因,其他情况不存在相互的因果关系;三者之间存在长期均衡关系,但具有一定的时滞性;棉花出口虽一定程度上受其他两个变量影响,但更依赖于自身内力推动。基于以上结论,提出了提质增效、以需定产、优化补贴、贸易保护等发展对策。

基于LSTM的棉花期货价格预测方法

传统的统计学和计量学时间序列预测模型在复杂的金融市场中存在限制。深度学习的长短期记忆(LSTM)网络被认为能克服这些限制。本研究利用我国2019年-2024年的棉花期货价格数据构建多层LSTM网络预测模型。结果表明,调整LSTM网络模型参数对预测效果优化显著,尤其是对迭代次数、学习率、窗口大小和网络层数的调整。相较于K近邻算法(KNN)、多元线性回归(MLR)以及支持向量回归(SVR)模型,LSTM网络预测准确性更高。以平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)衡量,LSTM网络相较于KNN、MLR、SVR模型误差降低89.28%、85.92%和17.8%。研究结果表明,LSTM网络在价格预测中表现出色,为棉花期货价格预测提供了新思路。

棉花期现货价格变动分析

2022年我国《中华人民共和国期货和衍生品法》实施,棉花期现货价格均有所变动。通过采用VECM模型、统计因果关系分析和脉冲响应函数等方法对《中华人民共和国期货和衍生品法》实施前后棉花期现货价格变动状况进行对比分析。结果表明,该法实施前后棉花期现货价格之间长期稳定关系没有发生变化,但期现货价格之间影响的传导方向发生改变。该法实施前棉花期现货价格之间互为因果关系,实施后只存在期货价格对于现货价格的单向统计因果关系,实施前后期现货价格关系存在显著变化。

棉纺企业发展面临的挑战及对策

为了促进行业健康发展,详述内外部竞争环境对外贸纺企、针织厂、中小纯棉纺企、原料加工企业的影响,从企业转型不利、出口市场结构变化、中低端棉纱亟需生产转移、涉疆法案生效、全球消费需求不足方面对生产纯棉产品的企业进行风险评估,并据此提出发展策略和措施。指出:产能瘦身和产业转移是纯棉行业走出低谷的关键;稳定棉价以减少成本风险,拓展出口渠道以稳定外贸,对棉花产地和产业布局做出调整,加快产品结构升级换代,加强技术和产品创新,同时将短期应对之策结合长期规划布局,可实现棉纺行业稳定、可持续发展,推进中小棉纺企业数字化转型、改造和智能化生产。

我国棉花短期价格波动研究——基于时间序列

采用ARCH模型对我国国内短期棉花价格波动的影响因素进行了研究。结果显示:棉花流通体制改革和市场宏观调控政策对棉花价格波动分别表现为正向影响和负向影响;棉花当期价格受一期和八期滞后价格影响,这显示出市场主体预期对市场变动趋势具有一定影响;国内持续上涨的需求对棉花市场价格波动的影响相对不显著,而供需缺口的变动是影响国内棉花价格波动的重要因素;棉花进口量的增加有利于减弱国内棉花价格波动;国际市场棉花价格波动对国内价格波动存在显著的正向影响。短期内棉花价格呈现出明显的季节特征,这种季节特征与市场预期、供需变化有较大关联。

基于VEC模型分析新疆棉花价格空间传导关系

【目的】分析我国新疆棉花价格与全国棉花价格、国际棉花价格的横向传导机理和规律,为完善新疆棉花价格形成机制及棉花市场风险管理提供参考。【方法】采用向量误差修正模型,选取2007~2019年新疆328级棉花现货价格、全国328级棉花现货价格和国际棉花价格CotlookA指数月度数据,研究三者之间的传导关系。【结果】我国新疆棉花价格、全国棉花价格与国际棉花价格,三者之间存在协整关系,国际棉花价格每变动1%,使新疆棉花价格变动1.103%、国内棉花价格变动1.065%。短期,国际棉花价格对新疆和全国棉花价格的传导效应明显,上一期国际棉花价格每变动1%,使本期我国新疆棉花价格变动0.241%、本期全国棉花价格变动0.3%。我国新疆棉价及全国棉价均受国际棉花价格的单向影响,我国新疆棉价与全国棉价之间没有显著的影响关系。【结论】我国新疆棉花现货市场与国际棉花现货市场日益紧密相关,国际棉花现货价格对我国新疆棉花现货价格起主要的引导作用,我国新疆棉花市场被动接受其他市场的价格波动输出,导致新疆棉花价格波动的风险高。