The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

Competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports in the international market

Cotton plays a vital role in the Egyptian economy by meeting domestic and export demands,contributing significantly to agriculture,industry,export earnings,and providing a cash income to roughly one million small farmers.This paper examines the competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports(ECE) in the international market during the period 1990-2006.It mainly aims at investigating the trends in cotton exports over the studied period,analyzing the competitive position of Egyptian cotton by employing several economic and trade indices,and identifying the key factors that influence Egypt's cotton exports to the world.The results revealed that the total quantity of ECE has fallen from 196.8 thousand tons in 2003 to 87.2 thousand tons in 2006.It also shows a high degree of geographic concentration of ECE,into India,Italy,the Republic of Korea,and Japan.Together,these markets imported about 50%of ECE during 1990-2006.The competitive advantage of Egyptian cotton would appear dependent on quality not price.Japan,the Republic of Korea and Italy presented the most stable markets for ECE.Linear regression analysis suggests that a one percent increase in the Egypt-to-USA export price ratio leads to a decrease in ECE by about 27.8 thousand tons.Such analysis has also shown a positive and significant effect of the World Trade Organization on ECE.

Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect of Soybean Price between Domestic and International Markets

Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in implementing price stabilization policy for the government. This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers in soybean prices between international and domestic markets using the multivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model based on the data set from December 22,2004 to December 19,2014. The estimate results indicate that there are volatility spillover effects from domestic futures market to spot market and bilateral spillover between international futures market and domestic spot market. In order to prevent market manipulation and to reduce the impacts of price volatility in international soybean market on Chinese market,this paper proposes the following policy measures such as establishing early warning mechanism for soybean price fluctuations,improving soybean futures contract design and strengthening trading risk management mechanism,amplifying information disclosure system,and regularizing speculation activities of big traders.

International Cotton Prices Likely to Rise in 2006/07

June 1,2006, from the International Cotton Advisory Committee: The 2005/06 average Cotlook A Index is projected at 56 cents per pound,8% higher than last season, and market fundamentals suggest that cotton prices may increase further in 2006/07. World cotton production is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons, while demand is

Seminar on“Cotton Price and Market”Outlook and Expectation for 2011

Sponsored by Cotton Council International and co-organized by the Hong Kong Association of Textile Bleachers,Dyers,Printers and Finishers and the Hong Kong Cotton Spinners Association,the seminar on"Cotton Price and Market:Outlook and Expectation for 2011"was held at the Clothing

Pricing Power of China's Cocoon and Silk Products in International Market:An Empirical Analysis Based on International Market Power

Do China＇s silk products only have advantage in number but no pricing power in international market？ In this paper, we used the residual demand elasticity model to estimate the international market power of China＇s silk products. The empirical results revealed that China＇s raw material products such as natural silk products and semi-finished products such as satin products had certain market power in the main export markets, but the finished silk products such as woman＇s blouse or shirts and shawls had no market power in the target markets including USA and Germany. The scale economy from resource endowment and great market share are the base of the international market power of natural silk products. The advantage from industry agglomeration and great market share are the source of the international market power of satin products. Technical bottlenecks and inefficiency in brand building are the cause of unobvious international market power of China＇s finished silk products, and the competition from Italy and France has increased the difficulty to enhance market power. In order to consolidate and improve the international market power of China＇s silk products, it is suggested to stabilize the production scale and strengthen industrial base, to speed up the resources integration and optimize the industrial distribution, to strengthen science and technology innovation and adjust product structure, to speed up the brand construction and enhance the influence of brand, and to enlarge the scale of organization and achieve scale economies.

Analysis on China Cotton Market

China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.

Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

December 2019 Recent price movement Most benchmark prices were stable over the past month.Pakistani prices decreased slightly.·The March NY futures contract held to values near 65 cents/lb.·The A Index was steady around 75 cents/lb.·In international terms,the China Cotton Index(CC Index 3128 B)consistently traded near 84 cents/lb.

Cotton Market Fundamentals ＆ Price Outlook

Recent price movement Several benchmark prices increased over the past month.NY futures,the A Index,and Pakistani spot prices all rose a few cents/lb,while the CC Index and Indian spot prices were stable.·The March NY futures contract was the most actively traded contract over the past month.Prices for March futures trended higher from late November through early December,

Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

2016,08 Released by Cotton Incorporated Recent price movement After rising throughout July,benchmark prices have been either flat or lower in the first half of August.·Values for the December NY futures contract climbed to levels over 75cents/lb in early August,but have since retreated to values below 71 cents/lb.·The A Index followed a nearly identical pattern as NY futures,with values climbing above 85 cents/lb in early August and then decreasing to levels be-

Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

2017.11Recent price movement·Most benchmark prices were unchanged over the past month.Only Pakistani prices had any notable movement,increasing slightly.·Values for the NY December contract were range-bound over the past month,holding to levels between 66 and70 cents/lb.Nonetheless,prices migrated towards the lower end of that range in mid-October and then shifted

Cotton Market Fundamentals ＆ Price Outlook

Recent price movement All benchmark prices except the CC Index increased over the past month.Prices for the March NY futures contract surged in late December,rising from75 cents/lb to just below 80 cents/lb.Following that round of increases,

加速调整变革的国际石油市场

2023年国际石油市场总体呈现油价地缘溢价消减但波动加剧,需求加快复苏但分化加剧,供给侧管理强化但博弈加大,市场与贸易格局加快重塑4个新特征。2024年宏观经济与地缘政治走势、新能源汽车发展节奏、“欧佩克+”产量政策与美联储货币政策等将继续影响和改变着国际石油市场。预计2024年国际石油市场总体供需宽松,国际油价仍处强势周期,油价中枢较上年或略有下移,但仍处中高位水平,不排除油价大涨大跌的可能。中国油气行业应更好发挥产业、市场、技术、贸易等优势,助力全球石油市场稳定。中国油气企业要加强科技创新和管理变革,坚持低成本发展,不断提升竞争力;更好发挥好上下游一体化和国内外资源市场联动优势,用好跨周期、逆周期调节工具,更好应对不确定的外部环境。

国际原油市场2023年回顾和2024年展望

近年来,国际油价在“OPEC+”产量政策、美联储货币政策、地缘局势动荡等因素影响下震荡加剧,对石油企业的生产经营造成了巨大挑战。以国际油价演变为主线,从供需、地缘、金融等角度回顾了2023年国际原油市场的特点:从需求侧看,欧美需求由“降”转“稳”,中国、印度两国带动全球原油需求稳定增长;从供给侧看,“OPEC+”坚持减产保价策略不动摇,美国、伊朗成为主要增产国;叠加地缘冲突加剧、欧美央行维持高利率,国际油价宽幅波动,布伦特原油均价为82美元/桶,同比下降16.8%。立足关键要素的边际变化,从需求增幅收窄、“OPEC+”延长减产、美元进入降息周期及地缘博弈持续等维度展望了2024年国际原油市场,得出全年油价或同比小幅上行的结论,以期为油气行业生产经营提供决策参考。

现货市场中实现保供目标的容量补偿定价方法

为解决电力现货市场环境下的电力系统装机充裕度不足的问题,提出一种实现电力系统保供目标的容量补偿定价方法。首先,根据保供要求的电力系统可靠性标准,构建基于内部收益率评估的机组投资、退役决策模型;其次,通过“机组电能市场收入评估、机组容量补偿收入评估、投资退役决策”的迭代,确定目标年份市场中分类型机组的预期装机;然后,计算目标年份的可靠性指标,根据可靠性指标与标准的偏差调整容量补偿价格,使得发电充裕度能够满足目标年份系统的可靠性标准。算例结果表明,所提定价方法能够在保证电力系统可靠性的基础上,降低电力用户的综合购电成本。

“双碳”背景下我国碳定价机制发展现状与建议

为有效减排,实现我国“双碳”目标、推进中国式现代化,本文系统梳理并总结了我国在碳税、碳市场、碳边境调节措施等碳定价机制方面的发展现状。研究发现,目前我国碳定价机制正在运行的仅有碳市场,内部碳定价在部分企业被采用,其他碳定价机制还未实施,整体尚处于碳定价机制的加速发展阶段。基于此,本文提出了我国碳定价机制应该推进碳定价机制立法进程、构建系统性碳定价机制、积极与其他经济体合作构建碳定价机制等方面的发展建议,以供参考。

国际能源市场与中国农产品市场的关联效应研究

为探讨国际能源市场与中国农产品市场之间的价格关联效应,本文密切关注石油价格变动对大豆、小麦、玉米和棉花等主要农产品价格的影响,基于时间序列数据和计量经济学模型,对石油价格与农产品价格的动态关系进行实证分析,并进行稳健性检验和敏感性分析。结果表明,石油价格与农产品价格之间存在显著的正相关关系,即石油价格的上涨会导致农产品价格上涨,这种价格关联效应在不同农产品中均有体现,但影响程度可能因产品而异。

国际能源价格波动对中国金融市场的风险溢出效应研究

基于TVP-VAR模型和波动溢出网络模型,测度了以原油、天然气和动力煤为代表的国际能源价格波动对中国金融市场的风险溢出效应,此外还通过波动溢出网络刻画了风险溢出的方向和路径。研究表明:国际原油价格波动对中国金融市场的风险溢出效应最强,然后依次是天然气和动力煤,三者对债券市场的风险溢出效应是最强的;原油和天然气与金融市场的时变净溢出指数变化比较剧烈,而动力煤的这一指数变化则明显平缓了很多,在极端风险事件发生后,国际能源价格波动对中国金融市场的风险输出水平显著增加;波动溢出网络在不同时期下存在明显的结构变化,具有事件驱动特征,国际能源价格波动与中国金融市场的波动溢出强度排序为新冠疫情时期、中美贸易摩擦时期和俄乌冲突时期。

2024年度国内小麦市场形势展望

进入2024年,国内小麦市场行情走势偏弱,供应充足、需求疲软,市场购销较为平淡,特别是面粉加工企业开机水平偏低,终端市场对小麦价格的拉动作用乏力。新粮收获上市后,因产量和品质均好于2023年,市场供给充裕,小麦价格低开稳走,购销围绕政策性收购平稳展开。综合预计后期在小麦市场供需宽松格局下,国内小麦价格出现单边大幅涨跌的概率均不大,随着收储任务的完成,市场购销将围绕面粉需求产生博弈,夏粮收购进程将比往年延长,谨慎策略或将成为市场的常态。