Stress triggering effect on the 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 earthquake with historical strong earthquakes

The 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 seismic event is intriguing due to its occurrence in the south of the Red River Fault,an area historically lacking seismic activities greater than M_(S)5.0.To elucidate the seismogenic mechanism and scrutinize stress-triggered interactions,we calculated co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress alterations induced by nine historical seismic events(M≥6.0).The analysis reveals that these substantial seismic events provoked co-seismic stress augmentations of 1.409 bar and postseismic stress increments of 0.159 bar.Noteworthy seismic events,such as the 1833 Songming,1877Shiping,1913 Eshan,and 1970 Tonghai earthquakes,catalyzed the occurrence of the Honghe earthquake.Areas of heightened future seismic risk include the southern region of the Red River Fault and the eastern segments of the Shiping-Jianshui and Qujiang faults.Additionally,we assessed the correlation between the spatial distribution of aftershocks and the Coulomb stress shift triggered by the mainshock,taking into account the influence of calculation parameter settings.

Coseismic Coulomb stress changes induced by a 2020-2021 M_(W)>7.0 Alaska earthquake sequence in and around the Shumagin gap and its influence on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction interface

Three M_(W)>7.0 earthquakes in 2020-2021 occurred in the Shumagin seismic gap and its adjacent area of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone,including the Mw7.8 Simeonof thrust earthquake on July 22,2020,the M_(W)7.6 Sand Point strike-slip earthquake on October 19,2020,and the M_(W)8.2 Chignik thrust earthquake on July 29,2021.The spatial and temporal proximity of these three earthquakes prompts us to probe stress-triggering effects among them.Here we examine the coseismic Coulomb stress change imparted by the three earthquakes and their influence on the subduction interface.Our results show that:(1)The Simeonof earthquake has strong loading effects on the subsequent Sand Point and Chignik earthquakes,with the Coulomb stress changes of 3.95 bars and 2.89 bars,respectively.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Sand Point earthquake at the hypocenter of the Chignik earthquake is merely around 0.01 bars,suggesting the negligible triggering effect on the latter earthquake;(2)The triggering effects of the Simeonof,Sand Point,and Chignik earthquakes on aftershocks within three months are not well pronounced because of the triggering rates of 38%,14%,and 43%respectively.Other factors may have played an important role in promoting the occurrence of these aftershocks,such as the roughness of the subduction interface,the complicated velocity structure of the lithosphere,and the heterogeneous prestress therein;(3)The three earthquakes caused remarkable coseismic Coulomb stress changes at the subduction interface nearby these mainshocks,with an average Coulomb stress change of 3.2 bars in the shallow region directly inwards the trench.

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001 MS=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

The great Kunlun earthquake occurred on Nov. 14, 2001 in Qinghai Province, China. Five large aftershocks with magnitude larger than 5.0 occurred near the Kunlun fault after main shock. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 4 of 5 large aftershocks occurred in areas with Dsf >0 (10-2~10-1 MPa) and one aftershock occurred in an area with Dsf =-0.56 MPa. It is concluded that the permanent fault displacement due to the main shock is the main cause of activity of large aftershocks, but not the whole cause.

Coulomb stress and gravity changes associated with the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand: Application for aftershock triggering and fault interaction process analysis

The Kaikoura earthquake on November 14,2016 is one of the largest and most complex earthquakes in New Zealand since 1947.Despite the fact that it has ruptured about 12 separate faults,triggered 2132 aftershocks within one week of the mainshock and induced considerable stress changes,few studies have been conducted to comprensively investigate the characteristics.The current study examines the horizontal and vertical displacements as well as the stress and gravity changes,aftershock distributions and also find out whether these changes affect the surrounding regions along the complex fault systems.The study covers the entire area affected by the Kaikoura event,which includes the northern part of the South Island and the southern part of the North Island.The dislocation theory was employed to evaluate the coseismic slip model on the multiple faults.The displacement results revealed that the maximum horizontal displacement is about 6 m and the vertical about 2 m,which are reasonably consistent with earlier study findings.Besides,the stress and gravity changes are quite complicated and inhomogeneous as evidenced by our coseismic model,demonstrating the complexity of the Kaikoura earthquake as well.Almost all the aftershocks are distributed in places where the stress and gravity change are found to be significant.In order to investigate the stability of our stress change models,we applied different friction coefficients and receiver fault parameters.The results justify the friction coefficient(μ=0.4)and the receiver fault parameters(230°,70°,150°)are suitable to define good stress change estimates.According to the stress change results at 15 km depth,the northern parts of the mainshock region,Hundalee fault,Humps fault and Jordan thrust areas together with the Wellington area are closer to failure and situated in a seismic risk zone.The multidimensional analysis adopted in this paper is helpful for making decisions and applications of stress and gravity change models in assessing seismic hazards.

Numerical simulation of dynamic Coulomb stress changes induced by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, Yunnan and its relationship with aftershocks

Based on the discrete wavenumber method, we calculate the fields of dynamic Coulomb rupture stress changes and static stress changes caused by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, and study their relationship with the subsequent after- shocks. The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of the positive region of dynamic stress peak value and static stress peak value are similarly asymmetric, which are basically identical with distribution features of aftershock. The dynamic stress peak value and the static stress in the positive region are more than 0.1 MPa and 0.01 MPa of the triggering threshold, respectively, which indicates that the dynamic and static stresses are helpful for the occurrence of aftershock. This suggests that both influences of dynamic and static stresses should be con- sidered other than only either of them when studying aftershock triggering in near field.

Evolution of Coulomb failure stress in Sulaiman Lobe,Pakistan,and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.

Stress triggering of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake

The Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and the Lushan M7.0 earthquake occurred in the north and south segments of the Longmenshan nappe tectonic belt, respectively. Based on the focal mechanism and finite fault model of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we calculated the coulomb failure stress change. The inverted coulomb stress changes based on the Nishimura and Chenji models both show that the Lushan MT. 0 earth- quake occurred in the increased area of coulomb failure stress induced by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake. The coulomb failure stress increased by approximately 0. 135 - 0. 152 bar in the source of the Lushan M7.0 earthquake, which is far more than the stress triggering threshold. Therefore, the Lushan M7.0 earthquake was most likely triggered by the coulomb failure stress change.

Influence of the earth rotation on the interfacial wave solutions and wave-induced tangential stress in a two-layer fluid system

Interfacial waves and wave-induced tangential stress are studied for geostrophic small amplitude waves of two-layer fluid with a top free surface and a fiat bottom. The solutions were deduced from the general form of linear fluid dynamic equations of two-layer fluid under the f-plane approximation, and wave-induced tangential stress were estimated based on the solutions obtained. As expected, the solutions derived from the present work include as special cases those obtained by Sun et al. （2004. Science in China, Ser. D, 47（12）： 1147-1154） for geostrophic small amplitude surface wave solutions and wave-induced tangential stress if the density of the upper layer is much smaller than that of the lower layer. The results show that the interface and the surface will oscillate synchronously, and the influence of the earth＇s rotation both on the surface wave solutions and the interfacial wave solutions should be considered.

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes （M≥7.0） and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes （M≥7.0） investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Co-seismic Coulomb stress changes on the northern Tanlu fault zone caused by the Tohoku-Oki M_(W)9.0 earthquake

Based on the spherical earth dislocation theory and a fault slip model of the Tohoku-Oki M_(W)9.0 earthquake,the co-seismic Coulomb failure stress changes(ΔCFS)on the northern Tanlu fault zone at depths of 0–40 km are calculated.By comparing two sets of results from the spherical earth dislocation theory and the semi-infinite space one,the effect of earth curvature on the calculation results is analyzed quantitatively.First,we systematically summarize previous researches related to the northern Tanlu fault zone,divide the fault zone as detailed as possible,give the geometric parameters of each segment,and establish a segmented structural model of the northern Tanlu fault zone.Second,we calculate the Coulomb stress changes on the northern Tanlu fault zone by using the spherical earth dislocation theory.The result shows the Coulomb stress changes are no more than 0.003 MPa,which proves the great earthquake did not significantly change the stress state of the fault zone.Finally,we quantitatively analyze the disparities between the results of semi-infinite space dislocation theory and the spherical earth one.The average disparity between them is about 7.7%on the northern Tanlu fault zone and is 16.8%on the Fangzheng graben,the maximum disparity on this graben reaches up to 25.5%.It indicates that the effect of earth curvature can not be ignored.So it’s necessary to use the spherical earth dislocation theory instead of the semi-infinite space one to study the Coulomb stress change in the far field.

Relationship between M_S≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Chinese Mainland and Tidal Coulomb Failure Stress

In this paper,we focused on earthquakes with M S≥7.0 in the Chinese mainland from1900 to 2012,calculated the lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress on the seismic fault plane and got the tidal phase through Schuster's test,then quantitatively analyzed the correlation between strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland and tidal Coulomb failure stress.Research shows that among 57 strong earthquakes with focal mechanism solutions,over 71.9%took place within the tidal loading phase,with the p-value of 3.83%,indicating that strong earthquakes with M S≥7.0 in Chinese mainland have a certain correlation with lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress.In the active period,the p-value is4.56%,75.5%of earthquakes occurred in the tidal loading phase zone,and 50%of earthquakes occurred in the quiescence period,indicating that strong earthquakes in the active period were obviously triggered with the tidal Coulomb failure stress loading.

Study on Stress Triggering During the Activity Process of the Jiashi Strong Earthquake Swarm

The Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of MS6.8 occurred on February 24,2003,about 20km from the southeast of the 1997～1998 Jiashi seismic region in Xinjiang,and its aftershocks are rich and strong.Did the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm trigger the Bachu-Jiashi MS6.8 earthquake? The Atushi earthquake of MS6.7 occurred in 1996,and the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred about 70km from the Atushi earthquake 10 months later.Did the Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7 encourage the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm? There were 9 earthquakes with M-S6.0 from 1996 to 1997 in the Jiashi seismic region,how did they act on each other? To answer the above questions,the article studies the triggering effect of the activity process of the whole Jiashi earthquake swarm from the 1996 Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7,the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong swarm to the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of M-S6.8,and analyzes the seismicity characteristics around the Jiashi region.The results show that the 1996 Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7 encouraged the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong swarm to some extent,the accumulative Coulomb stress change from the previous M-6.0 earthquakes of the Jiashi strong swarm had certain triggering effects on the following M-6.0 events,and the Coulomb stress change converted from the Jiashi strong swarm strongly encouraged the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with M-S6.8.

Investigation on variations of apparent stress in the region in and around the rupture volume preceding the occurrence of the 2021 Alaska MW8.2 earthquake

On July 29, 2021, a large earthquake of MW8.2 occurred south of the Alaska Peninsula. To investigate the spatial-temporal changes of crustal stress in the earthquake-stricken area before this event, we selected 159 earthquakes of 4.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.9 that occurred in the epicentral region and its surroundings between January 1980 and June 2021 to study the temporal variation and spatial distribution of their apparent stress. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between seismic activities and Earth’s rotation and explored the seismogenic process of this earthquake. The crustal stress rose from January 2008 to December 2016. This period was followed by a sub-instability stage from January 2017 until the occurrence of the MW8.2 earthquake. The average rate of apparent stress change in the first five years of the stress increase period was roughly 2.3 times that in the last four years. The lateral distribution of the apparent stress shows that the areas with apparent stress greater than 1.0 MPa exhibited an expanding trend during the seismogenic process. The maximum apparent stress was located at the earthquake epicenter during the last four years. The distribution of the apparent stress in the E-W vertical cross section revealed that an apparent stress gap formed around the hypocenter during the first five years of the stress increase period, surrounded by areas of relatively high apparent stress. After the Alaska earthquake, most parts of this gap were filled in by aftershocks. The seismic activities during the sub-instability stage exhibited a significant correlation with Earth’s rotation.

Research on seismic stress triggering

This paper briefly reviews basic theory of seismic stress triggering. Recent development on seismic stress triggering has been reviewed in the views of seismic static and dynamic stress triggering, application of viscoelastic model in seismic stress triggering, the relation between earthquake triggering and volcanic eruption or explosion, other explanation of earthquake triggering, etc. And some suggestions for further study on seismic stress triggering in near future are given.

Study of Triggering Action Between the Mani (M_S7.9) and the West Kunlun Mountains Pass (M_S8.1) Great Earthquakes and Their Dynamic Background

Based on Coulomb static stress variation, the stress trigging action of the Mani ( M S 7 9, Nov. 1997) earthquake on the West Kunlun Mountains Pass ( M S 8 1, Nov. 2001) earthquake is researched. Results of different source mechanism resolutions show that a 10 -3 MPa Coulomb stress due to the Mani earthquake was added to the fracture fault of the Kunlun earthquake, and this may shift the broken date to about 10 years earlier, and infer that the stress level in the crust is not low. Comparing the relationship between strong earthquake strength and frequency and earth rotation change, it is shown that the strength’s decrease and the variation period’s shortening of earth rotation are important controlling factors on strong earthquake activity. This great event with M S =8 1 took place probably due to a gradual strengthening background of regional stress field within the Qinghai_Xizang block in the period of acceleration of change of day’s length and stress triggering from the Mani earthquake.

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt, southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed. The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo, Daofu, Kangding, Qianning and Ganzi fault. Luohuo (MS=7.6, 1973)-Kangding (MS=6.2, 1975)-Daofu (MS=6.9, 1981)-Ganzi (MS=6.0, 1982) earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than 6.0. They occurred on the Luhuo, Kangding, Daofu and Ganzi fault, respectively. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated, and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed. It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors, and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock. With the fault interaction considered, the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed, and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change, the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized. It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt, and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.

Complete Coulomb stress changes induced by the Ms7.6 earthquake in Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan and triggering of aftershocks by dynamic and static stress

The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of complete Coulomb stress changes caused by 1988 Ms7.6 earthquake in Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan, are calculated and studied. And the triggering problems of Ms7.2 Gengma shock occurring 13 minutes after the main shock and of Ms5.0―6.9 aftershocks within 24 days after the main shock are discussed. The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of complete Coulomb stress changes of the Ms7.6 main shock are strongly asymmetric. The areas of positive dynamic and static Coulomb stress are both coincident well with the strong aftershocks' loca-tions. The Ms7.2 Gengma shock and most of strong aftershocks are subjected to the triggering effect of dynamic and static Coulomb stresses induced by the Ms7.6 Lancang earthquake.

Coulomb模型下考虑墙体侧向位移的土压力计算

墙体侧向位移对土压力有显著影响。基于墙体位移–土压力关系是墙后土体应力应变特征的宏观体现这一基本认识,通过构建Coulomb土压力模型下的几何与平衡方程,将直剪试验中微观的土体单位长度剪切位移ε同剪应力τ关系转化成宏观上的墙体位移与土压力曲线,推导了极限位移可求、涵盖主动至被动状态全过程的墙体位移–土压力计算模型。分析表明：滑移区范围、初始应力状态及土体的ε–τ关系是影响墙体位移–土压力曲线的核心要素;相对于主动区,被动区范围对墙土摩擦作用更加敏感,导致静止与被动状态之间的位移–土压力关系受墙土摩擦影响更加显著;墙后土体初始应力状态对墙体位移的影响主要体现为静止土压力系数K_0,随着K_0的增大主动与被动状态下的墙体位移相应增加和减小;极限状态下墙体位移与工程经验吻合,理论模型能基本反映土压力随位移的变化规律。

采矿诱发断层滑移失稳机制与能量释放规律研究

为研究采矿诱发断层滑移失稳机制与能量释放规律,通过对现场围岩节理裂隙调查和钻孔取芯开展试验,获得了岩体节理裂隙产状分布及围岩基本力学参数,采用Hoek-Brown强度准则对不同层位岩体的力学参数进行修正,以离散断裂网络(Discrete Fracture Network,DFN)形式将节理裂隙数据导入FLAC3D软件,构建精细化数值模型并进行了模拟分析。研究表明:将岩体库仑破裂应力增量ΔCFS作为断层滑移失稳的定量判据,可有效预测断层的滑移失稳区域;当主应力沿断层上盘方向进行偏转时,ΔCFS随着偏转角度与断层倾角增大而降低,断层周边岩体不易发生损伤破坏;当主应力沿着断层下盘方向进行偏转时,ΔCFS随着偏转角度与断层倾角增大而增大,断层周边岩体的损伤破坏程度加剧;断层滑移失稳分可以为3个阶段,即滑移蓄能阶段、稳定滑移阶段与滑移弱化阶段;断层周边岩体应变能密度集中区为断层滑移失稳时能量释放位置,岩体应变能密度分布呈现出积聚—向下扩散—重新积聚现象;利用断层滑移失稳的能量公式,可估算出断层滑移失稳时的能量释放大小。

关于Coulomb应力变化/扰动作用下的Dieterich余震触发机制的广义解

基于单自由度弹簧-滑块模型,滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦关系可用于对断层内部地震成核和断层失稳过程的定量化描述.Dieterich(1994)余震触发理论模型首次给出中强震后区域应力场受到静态应力扰动后所导致的区域地震活动性的时空变化特征,近期研究也表明Dieterich理论模型可进一步推广至依赖时间的地震预测模型的建立.本文从简单直观的断层群体化概念模型出发,推导出了包括静态剪应力和正应力扰动作用下广义Dieterich解.同Dieterich经典解相比,广义Coulomb应力变化:ΔCFFG=Δτ-(μ0-α)Δσ取代了Dieterich方程中原有的剪切应力扰动Δτ.从而表明余震发生率R同作用于断层上的正应力的变化(扰动)有着密切的相关性.进一步,我们讨论了传统Coulomb应力变化(扰动)模型在地震预测过程中可能存在的局限性.以1976年MS7.8唐山大地震的主余震序列为例,采用本文中得到的结果,并结合视时窗分段方法,拟合了该地区地震活动性的时间演化过程.结果表明,除Coulomb应力变化(扰动)的影响外,主震前后加载于断层上的剪应力速率变化可对早期余震发生率产生很大影响.