Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving effor...Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving efforts by international community, enormous progress has been made in the construction .展开更多
This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responde...This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responded with“carrot and stick”strategies,the results have been entirely different,with Yemen mired in deeper violence,whereas domestic terrorist forces were almost wiped out in Algeria in the late 2000s.To account for this variance and to measure the effects of the“carrot and stick”approach,the article adopts the state capacity model by analyzing how Bouteflika centralized Algeria’s bureaucracy and administration since 1999 which facilitated the communication between the intelligence,military and judiciary,thus strengthening military operations and law enforcement,and how Saleh’s Yemen filled with separatism and sectarianism aggravated the regime’s deficiencies of information collection and revenue concentration,leading to the continuation of terrorism.Evidence from my framework and cases suggest that coping with terrorist violence requires much more thoroughgoing measures than military blows;legislative efforts and national dialogues.The study is not limited to the cases of Algeria and Yemen,but aims at shedding light on more countries confronted with terrorist threat.展开更多
This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terro...This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terrorists complicate defensive resource allocations for the public safety.Simultaneous and sequential game models are developed to investigate the asymmetric information effects on defensive strategies and terrorism risk analysis.The government can detect explicit or implicit signals to support decisions and update its beliefs according to a Bayesian law after it receives a terrorist threat.Analyses of the equilibrium for the signaling game indicate that the optimal government defensive strategy will significantly impact the actions of the terrorists.Asymmetric information is shown to play a crucial role in security decision making and terrorism risk mitigation,with the optimal defensive strategy changing according to terrorists and government capabilities.展开更多
文摘Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving efforts by international community, enormous progress has been made in the construction .
文摘This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responded with“carrot and stick”strategies,the results have been entirely different,with Yemen mired in deeper violence,whereas domestic terrorist forces were almost wiped out in Algeria in the late 2000s.To account for this variance and to measure the effects of the“carrot and stick”approach,the article adopts the state capacity model by analyzing how Bouteflika centralized Algeria’s bureaucracy and administration since 1999 which facilitated the communication between the intelligence,military and judiciary,thus strengthening military operations and law enforcement,and how Saleh’s Yemen filled with separatism and sectarianism aggravated the regime’s deficiencies of information collection and revenue concentration,leading to the continuation of terrorism.Evidence from my framework and cases suggest that coping with terrorist violence requires much more thoroughgoing measures than military blows;legislative efforts and national dialogues.The study is not limited to the cases of Algeria and Yemen,but aims at shedding light on more countries confronted with terrorist threat.
基金Supported by the Key Technologies Research and DevelopmentProgram of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of China (No 2006BAK04A08)
文摘This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terrorists complicate defensive resource allocations for the public safety.Simultaneous and sequential game models are developed to investigate the asymmetric information effects on defensive strategies and terrorism risk analysis.The government can detect explicit or implicit signals to support decisions and update its beliefs according to a Bayesian law after it receives a terrorist threat.Analyses of the equilibrium for the signaling game indicate that the optimal government defensive strategy will significantly impact the actions of the terrorists.Asymmetric information is shown to play a crucial role in security decision making and terrorism risk mitigation,with the optimal defensive strategy changing according to terrorists and government capabilities.
