This research develops a comparative study between different multiplicative weights that are assigned to the covariance matrix that represents the background error in two hybrid assimilation schemes: 3DEnVAR and 4DEnV...This research develops a comparative study between different multiplicative weights that are assigned to the covariance matrix that represents the background error in two hybrid assimilation schemes: 3DEnVAR and 4DEnVAR. These weights are distributed between the static and time-invariant matrix and the matrix generated from the perturbations of a previous ensemble. The assigned values are 25%, 50%, and 75%, always having as a reference the ensemble matrix. The experiments are applied to the short-range Prediction System (SisPI) that works operationally at the Institute of Meteorology. The impact of Tropical Storm Eta on November 7 and 8, 2020 was selected as a study case. The results suggest that by giving the main weight to the ensemble matrix more realistic solutions are achieved because it shows a better representation of the synoptic flow. On the other hand, it is observed that 3DEnVAR method is more sensitive to multiplicative weight change of the first guess. More realistic results are obtained with 50% and 75% relations with 4DEnVAR method, whereas with 3DEnVAR a weight of 75% for the ensemble matrix is required.展开更多
文摘This research develops a comparative study between different multiplicative weights that are assigned to the covariance matrix that represents the background error in two hybrid assimilation schemes: 3DEnVAR and 4DEnVAR. These weights are distributed between the static and time-invariant matrix and the matrix generated from the perturbations of a previous ensemble. The assigned values are 25%, 50%, and 75%, always having as a reference the ensemble matrix. The experiments are applied to the short-range Prediction System (SisPI) that works operationally at the Institute of Meteorology. The impact of Tropical Storm Eta on November 7 and 8, 2020 was selected as a study case. The results suggest that by giving the main weight to the ensemble matrix more realistic solutions are achieved because it shows a better representation of the synoptic flow. On the other hand, it is observed that 3DEnVAR method is more sensitive to multiplicative weight change of the first guess. More realistic results are obtained with 50% and 75% relations with 4DEnVAR method, whereas with 3DEnVAR a weight of 75% for the ensemble matrix is required.
