Cox模型中基于Model-X Knockoffs的高维控制变量选择方法

在生物医学、临床试验和流行病学等领域的研究中,由于获得生存数据的试验设计、观测时间的局限,以及观测对象在进入或退出试验时的个体差异等方面的原因,与所关注事件的发生时间相关的数据经常存在右删失。基于右删失生存数据解析协变量和生存时间的关系时,应用最为广泛的统计模型是Cox模型。随着科学技术的进步,数据收集变得越来越容易,导致数据库规模越来越大、复杂性越来越高,数据的维度通常可以达到成百上千维,甚至更高。文章提出一种Cox模型中基于Model-X Knockoffs的高维控制变量选择方法。首先基于Knockoffs框架建立一个Knockoffs变量,并基于原始协变量和其相应的Knockoffs变量构造一个正则化的目标函数,然后通过求解目标函数的最优解构造一个统计量和基于数据的阈值,最后进行变量选择。模拟分析和实证研究结果表明:所提方法可以在变量选择的同时提供可靠的FDR控制,优于传统的LASSO方法。

Modelling the viscoplastic behaviour of Callovo-Oxfordian claystone with consideration of damage effect

In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute-Marne(MHM).The construction of URL induced the excavation damage of host formations,and the ventilation in the galleries desaturated the host formation close to the gallery wall.Moreover,it is expected that the mechanical behaviour of COx claystone is time-dependent.This study presents a constitutive model developed to describe the viscoplastic behaviour of unsaturated and damaged COx claystone.In this model,the unsaturation effect is considered by adopting the Bishop effective stress and the van Genuchten(VG)water retention model.In terms of the viscoplastic behaviour,the nonstationary flow surface(NSFS)theory for unsaturated soils is used with consideration of the coupled effects of strain rate and suction on the yield stress.A progressive hardening law is adopted.Meanwhile,a non-associated flow rule is used,which is similar to that in Barcelona basic model(BBM).In addition,to describe the damage effect induced by suction change and viscoplastic loading,a damage function is defined based on the crack volume proportion.This damage function contains two variables:unsaturated effective stress and viscoplastic volumetric strain,with the related parameters determined based on the mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP)tests.For the model validation,different tests on COx claystone under different loading paths are simulated.Comparisons between experimental and simulated results indicated that the present model is able to well describe the viscoplastic behaviour of damaged COx claystone,including swelling/shrinkage,triaxial extension and compression,and triaxial creep.

Effects of mesenchymal stem cell on dopaminergic neurons,motor and memory functions in animal models of Parkinson's disease:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.

Solving the Olbers’s Paradox, Explaining the “Red-Shift”, and Challenging the Relativities by “Sun Matters Theory” and “Sun Model of Universe”, an Evolution of the Einstein’s Static Universe Model

Olbers’s paradox, known as the dark night paradox, is an argument in astrophysics that the darkness of the night sky conflicts with the assumption of an infinite and eternal static universe. Big-Bang theory was used to partially explain this paradox, while introducing new problems. Hereby, we propose a better theory, named Sun Matters Theory, to explain this paradox. Moreover, this unique theory supports and extended the Einstein’s static universe model proposed by Albert Einstein in 1917. Further, we proposed our new universe model, “Sun Model of Universe”. Based on the new model and novel theory, we generated innovative field equation by upgrading Einstein’s Field Equation through adding back the cosmological constant, introducing a new variable and modifying the gravitationally-related concepts. According to the Sun Model of Universe, the dark matter and dark energy comprise the so-called “Sun Matters”. The observed phenomenon like the red shift is explained as due to the interaction of ordinary light with Sun Matters leading to its energy and frequency decrease. In Sun Model, our big universe consists of many universes with ordinary matter at the core mixed and surrounded with the Sun Matters. In those universes, the laws of physics may be completely or partially different from that of our ordinary universe with parallel civilizations. The darkness of night can be easily explained as resulting from the interaction of light with the Sun Matters leading to the sharp decrease in the light intensity. Sun Matters also scatter the light from a star, which makes it shining as observed by Hubble. Further, there is a kind of Sun Matters named “Sun Waters”, surrounding every starts. When lights pass by the sun, the Sun Waters deflect the lights to bend the light path. According to the Sun Model, it is the light bent not the space bent that was proposed in the theory of relativities.

Hubble Tension Explanation from This Cosmological Model AΛΩ (Slow Bang Model, SB)

In this article we present a model of Hubble-Lemaître law using the notions of a transmitter (galaxy) and a receiver (MW) coupled to a model of the universe (Slow Bang Model, SB), based on a quantum approach of the evolution of space-time as well as an equation of state that retains all the infinitesimal terms. We find an explanation of the Hubble tension H0. Indeed, we have seen that this constant depends on the transceiver pair which can vary from the lowest observable value, from photons of the CMB (theoretical [km/s/Mpc]) to increasingly higher values depending on the earlier origin of the formation of the observed galaxy or cluster (ETG ~0.3 [Gy], ~74 [km/s/Mpc]). We have produced a theoretical table of the values of the constant according to the possible pairs of transmitter/receiver in the case where these galaxies follow the Hubble flow without large disturbance. The calculated theoretical values of the constant are in the order of magnitude of all values mentioned in past studies. Subsequently, we applied the models to 9 galaxies and COMA cluster and found that the models predict acceptable values of their distances and Hubble constant since these galaxies mainly follow the Hubble flow rather than the effects of a galaxy cluster or a group of clusters. In conclusion, we affirm that this Hubble tension does not really exist and it is rather the understanding of the meaning of this constant that is questioned.

Modelling the Survival of Western Honey Bee Apis mellifera and the African Stingless Bee Meliponula ferruginea Using Semiparametric Marginal Proportional Hazards Mixture Cure Model

Classical survival analysis assumes all subjects will experience the event of interest, but in some cases, a portion of the population may never encounter the event. These survival methods further assume independent survival times, which is not valid for honey bees, which live in nests. The study introduces a semi-parametric marginal proportional hazards mixture cure (PHMC) model with exchangeable correlation structure, using generalized estimating equations for survival data analysis. The model was tested on clustered right-censored bees survival data with a cured fraction, where two bee species were subjected to different entomopathogens to test the effect of the entomopathogens on the survival of the bee species. The Expectation-Solution algorithm is used to estimate the parameters. The study notes a weak positive association between cure statuses (ρ1=0.0007) and survival times for uncured bees (ρ2=0.0890), emphasizing their importance. The odds of being uncured for A. mellifera is higher than the odds for species M. ferruginea. The bee species, A. mellifera are more susceptible to entomopathogens icipe 7, icipe 20, and icipe 69. The Cox-Snell residuals show that the proposed semiparametric PH model generally fits the data well as compared to model that assume independent correlation structure. Thus, the semi parametric marginal proportional hazards mixture cure is parsimonious model for correlated bees survival data.

基于贝叶斯Cox风险比例回归的兰州市HIV感染者/AIDS患者死亡影响因素分析

[目的]了解兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例相关特征的构成情况,分析艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素。[方法]通过收集兰州市2011-2019年HIV/AIDS报告病例信息,采用生存分析方法,构建贝叶斯Cox风险比例回归模型分析影响死亡的相关因素。[结果]本研究共选取2312例HIV/AIDS患者,其中艾滋病相关死亡45例。多因素回归结果显示,患者年龄越大,死亡风险越高;确诊时为AIDS患者的死亡风险是HIV感染者的13.91倍;与未接受CD4检测的患者相比,接受CD4检测的患者的死亡风险降低;进行抗病毒治疗者的死亡风险是未进行抗病毒治疗者的0.22倍。[结论]确诊时年龄、病程阶段、是否接受抗病毒治疗是兰州市HIV/AIDS患者艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素,因此要加强艾滋病相关人群健康教育,提倡早发现、早诊断、早治疗,扩大艾滋病检测与治疗的覆盖面,延长艾滋病患者的生存时间。

糖尿病肾脏疾病预后影响因素的COX比例风险回归模型分析

目的基于COX比例风险回归模型分析糖尿病肾脏疾病(diabetic kidney disease,DKD)预后的影响因素,为临床早期评估和防治DKD提供科学的依据。方法收集多中心(河南中医药大学第一附属医院、河南中医药大学第三附属医院、河南省中医院及郑州市人民医院)2010—2021年就诊治疗的DKD患者资料,包括一般资料、实验室指标、中医辨证分型及中医药治疗,以肾小球滤过率(eGFR)下降≥50%、血肌酐(Scr)翻倍、DKD 5期、死亡为结局指标,随访其发生时间及情况,利用COX比例风险回归模型分析筛选DKD预后影响因素。结果本研究最终纳入1947例患者,随访时间为4.65(4.557~4.746)年,发生复合终点事件305例(15.67%)。单因素COX回归分析结果表明,不同年龄、DKD病程≥4年、饮酒史、吸烟史、高血压、冠心病、脑血管病、糖尿病足、糖尿病眼病、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、血尿酸(SUA)、Scr、24 h尿蛋白定量(24 h-UTP)、eGFR、湿热血瘀证、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证、脾肾阳虚兼血瘀证、中药熏洗、服用中药患者DKD预后情况比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素COX回归分析结果表明,年龄[HR(95%CI)=2.52(1.92,3.30)]、DKD病程[HR(95%CI)=1.62(1.09,2.42)]、吸烟史[HR(95%CI)=1.61(1.13,2.29)]、饮酒史[HR(95%CI)=1.41(1.01,1.95)]、脑血管病[HR(95%CI)=1.33(1.01,1.75)]、糖尿病眼病[HR(95%CI)=1.43(1.13,1.82)]、SUA[HR(95%CI)=1.72(1.26,2.33)]、24 h-UTP[HR(95%CI)=1.48(1.14,1.91)]、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证[HR(95%CI)=2.22(1.44,3.43)]与DKD发生终点事件的风险关系密切(P<0.05),服用中药[HR(95%CI)=2.57(2.00,3.31)]能够减少终点事件的发生(P<0.05)。结论年龄、DKD病程、吸烟史、饮酒史、脑血管病、糖尿病眼病、SUA、24 h-UTP、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证是影响DKD患者预后的危险因素,而服用中药治疗为其保护因素。

D-S理论和Markov链组合的桥梁性能退化预测研究

为准确预测桥梁性能退化,考虑到数据随机性和微小扰动发生状态跳跃,提出了一种D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论和Markov链组合的桥梁性能退化组合预测模型和性能退化率的概念.该模型基于指数平滑(exponential smoothing,ES)方法获得新的预测数据序列,并利用Markov链和D-S理论不断进行优化,从而实现桥梁性能退化的组合预测.实际工程的应用结果表明:性能退化率可以直观地表征在梁性能退化的速度.其次,该模型的平均相对误差为1.54%,较于回归、灰色和模糊加权Markov链模型,精度分别提高了1.11%,0.88%和2.8%,而后验差比值为0.242,小于0.35;模型的标准差为9.021,相比其他模型分别减小了3.978,3.405和7.500,而变异系数为0.109,均小于其他模型,验证了组合预测模型在精度和稳定性方面的优越性,可为在役桥梁结构性能退化预测与维护提供理论基础.

基于量子衍生涡流算法和T⁃S模糊推理模型的储层岩性识别

鉴于梯度下降法易陷入局部极值、普通群智能优化算法易早熟收敛,提出一种基于量子衍生涡流算法(Quantum Vortex Search Algorithm,QVSA)和T⁃S模糊推理模型的岩性识别方法,QVSA具有操作简单、收敛速度快、寻优能力强等优点,有助于T⁃S模糊推理模型获得最优参数配置,从而实现储层岩性的准确识别。首先利用具有全局搜索能力的QVSA优化T⁃S模糊推理模型的各种参数;然后利用主成分分析方法降低获取的地震属性维度;再利用优化的T⁃S模糊推理模型识别储层岩性。实验结果表明,利用反映储层特征的8个地震属性识别储层岩性时,所提方法的识别正确率达到92%,比普通BP网络方法高5.1%,同时查准率、查全率、F1分数等指标也较BP网络方法提升明显。

Outlook of PINK1/Parkin signaling in molecular etiology of Parkinson's disease,with insights into Pink1 knockout models

Parkinson’s disease(PD)relates to defective mitochondrial quality control in the dopaminergic motor network.Genetic studies have revealed that PINK1 and Parkin mutations are indicative of a heightened propensity to PD onset,pinpointing mitophagy and inflammation as the culprit pathways involved in neuronal loss in the substantia nigra(SNpc).In a reciprocal manner,LRRK2 functions in the regulation of basal flux and inflammatory responses responsible for PINK1/Parkin-dependent mitophagy activation.Pharmacological intervention in these diseasemodifying pathways may facilitate the development of novel PD therapeutics,despite the current lack of an established drug evaluation model.As such,we reviewed the feasibility of employing the versatile global Pink1knockout(KO)rat model as a self-sufficient,spontaneous PD model for investigating both disease etiology and drug pharmacology.These rats retain clinical features encompassing basal mitophagic flux changes with PD progression.We demonstrate the versatility of this PD rat model based on the incorporation of additional experimental insults to recapitulate the proinflammatory responses observed in PD patients.

A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

基于S-O-R模型的视觉营销对消费者购买意愿的影响研究——以红色文创网店为例

为提高红色文创网店的点击转化率,文章从消费者视角出发,研究影响消费者购买意愿的视觉因素。基于S-O-R模型理论,构建红色文创网店视觉营销对消费者购买意愿因素的理论模型。利用S-O-R模型分析了红色文创网店视觉营销中的商品形象、界面形象以及品牌视觉形象对顾客感知价值及顾客购买意向的影响。通过设计量表和调查问卷进行实证研究,并结合结构方程模型加以论证,得出品牌视觉形象和界面形象是影响消费者购买意愿的关键因素,为设计师和红色文创品牌进行网店设计提供了一定的理论参考和建议。

Clinical Study on the Impact of Long-term Survival Quality in 204 Postoperative Patients with Breast Cancer by Cox Proportional Hazard Models

The aim of study was to evaluate clinical characteristics, social support and the association with the prognosis of breast cancer patients. A total of 204 participants were followed from 2003 until the end of 2008. Information about patients with breast cancer was submitted by investigators. Data were analyzed by Cox’s proportional hazard model. The clinical staging of breast cancer we used was the TNM classification. A 'T' score is based upon the size and/or extent of invasion. The 'N' score indicates the extent of lymph node involvement. Age at diagnose was associated with protective factors (HR=0.972;95%CI (0.834-1.130)), T staging (HR=2.075;95%CI (1.424-3.022)), N staging (HR=1.513;95%CI (1.066-2.148)), were associated with risk factor. Two survival graphs of nodes with negative effects by histology and nodes with positive effects by histology was analyzed by log-rank test, there was statistically significant relationship between two survival graphs (χ2 =136.8467, p <.0001). Age at diagnoses, Clinical stage tumor and node could contribute to the development of breast cancer and disease free survival in Chinese women.

Modeling the energetic electron fluxes in the inner radiation belt based on a drift-source model

The Macao Science Satellite-1(MSS-1),designed by the Macao University of Science and Technology and the National Space Science Center(NSSC)of China,is equipped to detect the fine structure of the magnetic field over the South Atlantic Anomaly(SAA)region,monitoring geomagnetic field variations,and obtaining the energetic electron spectrum distributions in the Earth’s inner radiation belt.In this study,we simulate the distributions of trapped,quasi-trapped,and untrapped electrons along the orbit of MSS-1 based on a drift-source model.The simulation results show that the particle detector with 90°looking direction can observe trapped electrons in the SAA region,untrapped electrons in the regions conjugated with the SAA region at the north hemisphere,and quasitrapped electrons in all other regions.In contrast,the detectors with<60°looking directions can measure only untrapped electrons.Generally,quasi-trapped electron fluxes accumulate along the drift trajectory and are due primarily to CRAND,until reaching the SAA region where quasi-trapped electrons are all lost into the atmosphere.

A Cox Proportional Hazard Model Approach to Age at First Sexual Intercourse in Nigeria

Early age at first sexual intercourse comes with many negative sexual outcomes namely: having unprotected sex on first sexual intercourse, condom misuse, high rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), teenage pregnancy, increased number of sexual partners, etc. In this paper, we considered some socio-demographic and cultural factors and their relationship with age at first sexual intercourse so as to reduce the numerous negative sexual outcomes of early age at first sexual intercourse using the 2018 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey data. The analysis was made using the Cox proportional hazard model and the Kaplan-Meier plot. The result shows that some respondents started having their first sexual intercourse at the age of 8 years and about 54.4% of the respondents had their first sexual intercourse before age 17 years. The median age of first sexual intercourse is 16 years which implies that about 50% of the respondents had their first sexual intercourse on or before their 16th birthday. Education, religion, region and residence significantly affects the age of first sexual intercourse while circumcision has no significant effect.

Quantification of Ride Comfort Using Musculoskeletal Mathematical Model Considering Vehicle Behavior

This research aims to quantify driver ride comfort due to changes in damper characteristics between comfort mode and sport mode,considering the vehicle’s inertial behavior.The comfort of riding in an automobile has been evaluated in recent years on the basis of a subjective sensory evaluation given by the driver.However,reflecting driving sensations in design work to improve ride comfort is abstract in nature and difficult to express theoretically.Therefore,we evaluated the human body’s effects while driving scientifically by quantifying the driver’s behavior while operating the steering wheel and the behavior of the automobile while in motion using physical quantities.To this end,we collected driver and vehicle data using amotion capture system and vehicle CAN and IMU sensors.We also constructed a three-dimensional musculoskeletal mathematical model to simulate driver movements and calculate the power and amount of energy per unit of time used for driving the joints and muscles of the human body.Here,we used comfort mode and sport mode to compare damper characteristics in terms of hardness.In comfort mode,damper characteristics are soft and steering stability is mild,but vibration from the road is not easily transmitted to the driver making for a lighter load on the driver.In sport mode,on the other hand,damper characteristics are hard and steering stability is comparatively better.Still,vibration from the road is easily transmitted to the driver,whichmakes it easy for a load to be placed on the driver.As a result of this comparison,it was found that a load was most likely to be applied to the driver’s neck.This result in relation to the neck joint can therefore be treated as an objective measure for quantifying ride comfort.

The Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model Vis-à-Vis ITN-Factor Impact on Mortality Due to Malaria

This study has provided a starting point for defining and working with Cox models in respect of multivariate modeling. In medical researches, there may be situations, where several risk factors potentially affect patient prognosis, howbeit, only one or two might predict patient’s predicament. In seeking to find out which of the risk factors contribute the most to the survival times of patients, there was the need for researchers to adjust the covariates to realize their impact on survival times of patients. Aside the multivariate nature of the covariates, some covariates might be categorical while others might be quantitative. Again, there might be cases where researchers need a model that has the capability of extending survival analysis methods to assessing simultaneously the effect of several risk factors on survival times. This study unveiled the Cox model as a robust technique which could accomplish the aforementioned cases. An investigation meant to evaluate the ITN-factor vis-à-vis its contribution towards death due to Malaria was exemplified with the Cox model. Data were taken from hospitals in Ghana. In doing so, we assessed hospital in-patients who reported cases of malaria (origin state) to time until death or censoring (destination stage) as a result of predictive factors (exposure to the malaria parasites) and some socioeconomic variables. We purposefully used Cox models to quantify the effect of the ITN-factor in the presence of other risk factors to obtain some measures of effect that could describe the relationship between the exposure variable and time until death adjusting for other variables. PH assumption holds for all three covariates. Sex of patient was insignificant to deaths due to malaria. Age of patient and user status were both significant. The magnitude of the coefficient (0.384) of ITN user status depicts its high contribution to the variation in the dependent variable.

Model test of negative Poisson’s ratio cable for supporting super-largespan tunnel using excavation compensation method

In recent years,there is a scenario in urban tunnel constructions to build super-large-span tunnels for traffic diversion and route optimization purposes.However,the increased size makes tunnel support more difficult.Unfortunately,there are few studies on the failure and support mechanism of the surrounding rocks in the excavation of supported tunnel,while most model tests of super-large-span tunnels focus on the failure characteristics of surrounding rocks in tunnel excavation without supports.Based on excavation compensation method(ECM),model tests of a super-large-span tunnel excavation by different anchor cable support methods in the initial support stage were carried out.The results indicate that during excavation of super-large-span tunnel,the stress and displacement of the shallow surrounding rocks decrease,following a step-shape pattern,and the tunnel failure is mainly concentrated on the vault and spandrel areas.Compared with conventional anchor cable supports,the NPR(negative Poisson’s ratio)anchor cable support is more suitable for the initial support stage of the super-large-span tunnels.The tunnel support theory,model test materials,methods,and the results obtained in this study could provide references for study of similar super-large-span tunnels。

东北地区土地覆被格局变化模拟:基于CLUE-S和Markov-CA模型的对比分析

研究以遥感解译的东北地区2000年、2010年、2015年的土地覆被变化为基础,充分考虑自然和社会因素对土地覆被变化的影响,分别通过CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型对东北地区2015年和2030年土地覆被格局进行模拟,研究结果表明:通过与遥感解译的2015年实际土地覆被类型数据对比验证,CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型模拟结果的总体Kappa指数分别为0.9700和0.9649,结果表明2种模型的模拟结果较为理想,CLUE-S模型的模拟精度较Markov-CA模型更高。2015—2030年东北地区草地、耕地、湿地、其他用地和水体面积呈现下降趋势,林地、人工表面面积呈现增加趋势,人地关系越发紧张。东北地区作为生态环境相对脆弱的区域需警惕不可持续的土地覆被变化,需权衡生态保护、粮食增加与基础设施建设的用地需求和协调发展。