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改进贝叶斯网络模型在起重作业人机交互差错风险分析中的应用 被引量:1
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作者 晋良海 闫月蓉 +3 位作者 陈颖 邵波 陈述 陈云 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期213-220,共8页
为量化分析起重作业人机交互差错风险,根据安全工效学原理及安全技术规范将起重作业人、机、环相关影响因素作为根节点,按照事故致因层次关联关系确定子节点,构建起重作业人机交互差错的3层级贝叶斯网络模型(Bayesian Network, BN);基... 为量化分析起重作业人机交互差错风险,根据安全工效学原理及安全技术规范将起重作业人、机、环相关影响因素作为根节点,按照事故致因层次关联关系确定子节点,构建起重作业人机交互差错的3层级贝叶斯网络模型(Bayesian Network, BN);基于模糊集理论,采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method, CREAM),厘定贝叶斯网络父节点失效概率以及中间节点条件概率;利用逆向推理仿真技术分析起重作业人机交互差错发生的因果链,探究起重伤害事故发生的人机交互差错风险。结果表明:起重作业人机交互差错最可能致因链为起重设备安全检查不到位→管理人员失误→人员操作失误→起重伤害事故发生;单因素失效条件下,起重作业人机交互差错风险概率呈线性增长趋势;在多因素失效条件下,一级节点因素失效概率愈大则人机交互差错效应愈显著,且呈现非线性增长态势。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 起重作业 人机交互差错 贝叶斯网络(BN) 认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)
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基于组合赋权的压裂作业人因失误概率研究
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作者 陈波 庞茜月 +2 位作者 樊春明 邓丽 戴启平 《西南石油大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期135-144,共10页
压裂作业强度大,环境恶劣,长时间枯燥的作业容易诱发人因失误,造成事故,分析压裂现场人因可靠性对于提升压裂作业的安全和效率具有重要意义。在考虑压裂现场情境因素影响基础上,提出了一种组合赋权模糊人因可靠性分析方法,用以评估压裂... 压裂作业强度大,环境恶劣,长时间枯燥的作业容易诱发人因失误,造成事故,分析压裂现场人因可靠性对于提升压裂作业的安全和效率具有重要意义。在考虑压裂现场情境因素影响基础上,提出了一种组合赋权模糊人因可靠性分析方法,用以评估压裂现场人因失误概率。首先,通过对压裂现场的调研分析,结合压裂作业情境环境特点,基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)建立了适用于评估压裂作业的一级共同绩效条件CPC 8个,二级CPC因子评估指标36个。其次,根据实际工况中各CPC对人的绩效可靠性的影响程度不同,提出以差异系数法确定线性组合系数,基于序关系法与熵权法对各项评估指标进行主客观线性组合赋权。最后,利用本文方法分析四川某页岩气压裂作业现场人因失误概率,结果表明,较一般模糊CREAM方法,在不同情境环境下,随着情境环境水平的下降,组合赋权模糊CREAM方法对CPC评价数据敏感度更高,人因失误概率增加,并且变化速率加快,这与现场实际工况一致,为压裂现场的人因可靠性分析和人因失误概率量化结果优化提供了参考。 展开更多
关键词 压裂作业 人因失误 CREAM 模糊理论 组合赋权
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基于CREAM方法的海上风机安装人因可靠性评估
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作者 杜尊峰 刘治余 +1 位作者 杨源 赵亚琦 《中国海洋平台》 2024年第3期27-34,共8页
采用认知可靠性和差错分析法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)对固定式海上风机安装作业的人因可靠性进行评估,并引入结构熵权法和马尔可夫方法对传统CREAM进行改进,实现人因差错概率、平均人为差错时间等人因... 采用认知可靠性和差错分析法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)对固定式海上风机安装作业的人因可靠性进行评估,并引入结构熵权法和马尔可夫方法对传统CREAM进行改进,实现人因差错概率、平均人为差错时间等人因可靠性指标的定量计算。在充分结合现实条件的情况下,考虑海上风机安装的天气、海浪和操作水平等环境和人为因素的影响,针对固定式海上风机安装作业的要求和特点,结合作业人员可靠性评估结果,从操作素质、组织管理、环境改善等方面提出发展建议。 展开更多
关键词 海上风机安装 人因可靠性评估 CREAM
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An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL
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作者 Zhihui Xu Shuwen Shang +3 位作者 Yuntong Pu Xiaoyan Su Hong Qian Xiaolei Pan 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第3期2597-2617,共21页
Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability ... Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and uncertain.What’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is unrealistic.Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation.To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios.To address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs.The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable. 展开更多
关键词 Human reliability analysis CREAM uncertainty modeling DEPENDENCE Dempster-Shafer evidence theory DEMATEL
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STPA和CREAM方法在飞行冲突调配人因差错研究中的应用
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作者 袁乐平 吴昊 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期1886-1893,共8页
为了研究管制员飞行冲突调配的人因差错问题,进而有效评估管制员解决飞行冲突的可靠性,以保障空中交通的安全运行,提出系统理论过程分析(System Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA)与认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability an... 为了研究管制员飞行冲突调配的人因差错问题,进而有效评估管制员解决飞行冲突的可靠性,以保障空中交通的安全运行,提出系统理论过程分析(System Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA)与认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method, CREAM)相结合的人因可靠性分析方法。首先,通过STPA方法构建系统控制模型,识别不安全控制行为(Unsafe Control Action, UCA)以及致因因素,找到管制员在调配飞行冲突过程中可能存在的差错行为;其次,基于CREAM扩展法对管制员的差错行为进行定量分析,得到管制员调配飞行冲突的人因失误概率。研究显示:使用该方法能够系统、全面地识别出管制员在调配飞行冲突过程中出现的差错行为,进而计算管制员飞行冲突调配的人因失误概率。实例分析表明该方法可以预测管制员在飞行冲突调配过程中的人因失误概率及可靠性,为管制员人因可靠性分析提供了新思路。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 空中交通管制员 飞行冲突 系统理论过程分析(STPA) 认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM) 人因可靠性
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Enhancing Women's Well-being and Self-Confidence through Fragrance Cosmetics:Perceptions within Close and Broader Social Circles
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作者 Yang Fan Guo Miao +1 位作者 Zhou Ziyan Abriat Anne 《China Detergent & Cosmetics》 CAS 2024年第2期69-78,共10页
Mental and physical stress can affect people's self-confidence and happiness.The primary objective of this study is to develop an active fragrance that has been proved to have a positive effect on happiness and se... Mental and physical stress can affect people's self-confidence and happiness.The primary objective of this study is to develop an active fragrance that has been proved to have a positive effect on happiness and self-confidence based on the latest research results of aroma components and fragrance innovation.The active fragrance is applied to the cream formula to study the emotions it brings to the user and extend the research scope of the active emotion to the close and extensive social circle of users to see whether it can perceive it.This study provides a reference cosmetic solution for emotional regulating active fragrance. 展开更多
关键词 FRAGRANCE emotion CREAM social circle
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Supporting Skin Structure and Its Barrier Functions with Evidence-Based Skin Care Ingredients
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作者 Marsha Tharakan Lori Lonczak 《Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications》 2024年第2期200-210,共11页
The epidermis, and in particular its outermost layer, the stratum corneum, contributes much of the barrier function of the skin and is a readily visible representation of skin health. Maintaining the health of the ski... The epidermis, and in particular its outermost layer, the stratum corneum, contributes much of the barrier function of the skin and is a readily visible representation of skin health. Maintaining the health of the skin barrier has arguably become more important than ever in the modern world, in which a large majority of people are exposed to environmental insults. These external factors can damage the integrity of the skin barrier and prematurely age the skin. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to maintain and protect the stratum corneum. Here, we briefly review the complex, multilayered structure of the skin and relate it to clinically translatable function, with an emphasis on the stratum corneum. In the context of epidermal structure and function, the formulation and clinical data for Phelityl® Reviving Cream will be reviewed. Phelityl Reviving Cream was shown to be associated with improvements in both immediate- and long-term parameters, including a significant positive effect on the skin barrier and immediate and long-lasting hydration. 展开更多
关键词 Skin Structure Skin Barrier Stratum Corneum Phelityl Reviving Cream Phelityl Complex
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基于CREAM和AHP的残疾人驾驶员人因可靠性分析
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作者 魏灿 《机电产品开发与创新》 2024年第2期217-221,共5页
依据我国残疾人驾驶机动车辆现状,提出一种基于AHP的残疾人驾驶车辆人因可靠性分析方法。根据残疾人应对道路交通突发事件时需要执行的任务,改进CPC因子;针对人因可靠性分析法存在的片面性问题,采用层次分析法建立CPC因子网络层次结构,... 依据我国残疾人驾驶机动车辆现状,提出一种基于AHP的残疾人驾驶车辆人因可靠性分析方法。根据残疾人应对道路交通突发事件时需要执行的任务,改进CPC因子;针对人因可靠性分析法存在的片面性问题,采用层次分析法建立CPC因子网络层次结构,计算其权重,对残疾人驾驶员执行应对道路交通突发事件的任务的人因失误概率进行预测。研究结果表明,从方法的科学性性和可行性角度分析,改进后的CREAM方法研究该问题更具优势。 展开更多
关键词 CREAM 层次分析法 人因可靠性 残疾人驾驶员 交通安全
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人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型
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作者 马彦辉 左凯瑛 +1 位作者 王颖 王志琼 《工业工程》 北大核心 2023年第6期83-92,共10页
传统认知可靠性与失误分析方法 (cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM)存在诸多缺陷,导致适用面较窄,但仍具有较大的开发潜力。为提高方法评价的精度和扩展其适用性,提出一种改进加权的贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,... 传统认知可靠性与失误分析方法 (cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM)存在诸多缺陷,导致适用面较窄,但仍具有较大的开发潜力。为提高方法评价的精度和扩展其适用性,提出一种改进加权的贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)与CREAM方法相结合的模型。该模型首先使用灰色关联法与决策实验室分析法获取在场景下因子的权重,再利用贝叶斯网络推理得到调整后的共同绩效条件因子节点概率分布;然后将加权后的因子进行抽样仿真,得到在该场景下人所处控制模式的概率分布。选用1 800 W定制种子电源的案例,通过分析评估结果,再对比其他方法,验证了模型的有效性和可行性。改进后模型的适用性更广,输出结果更客观,为人因可靠性评价指标体系的构建提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 人因可靠性评价 认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM) 灰色-决策与实验室法 贝叶斯网络
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基于改进认知可靠性与失误分析方法的隧道驾驶人因可靠性分析模型
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作者 施金斌 刘晓佳 +1 位作者 马国旺 唐慧漪 《科学技术与工程》 北大核心 2023年第25期10983-10989,共7页
为有效预测驾驶人通过隧道时的人因失误概率,减少人为差错,提出一种基于改进认知可靠性与失误分析方法(cognitive reliability and error analysis,CREAM)的隧道驾驶人因可靠性分析模型。结合隧道驾驶任务的特点,调整共用绩效条件(commo... 为有效预测驾驶人通过隧道时的人因失误概率,减少人为差错,提出一种基于改进认知可靠性与失误分析方法(cognitive reliability and error analysis,CREAM)的隧道驾驶人因可靠性分析模型。结合隧道驾驶任务的特点,调整共用绩效条件(common performance condition,CPC),给出评估细则。使用模糊数将CPC因子的绩效效应值从确定值转换为概率值,以降低主观因素对评价结果的影响。考虑CPC因子间的相互影响关系,给出调整规则。最后建立基于贝叶斯网络的改进CREAM模型,确定控制模式。对隧道驾驶实例进行分析,计算驾驶人完成隧道驾驶任务的人因失误概率。结果表明,该模型可以准确计算隧道驾驶任务中的人误概率,且灵敏性比CREAM基本法更高,可为隧道交通人因可靠性分析提供支持。 展开更多
关键词 认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM) 共用绩效条件 人因可靠性 贝叶斯网络 隧道驾驶
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Textural and functional analysis of sorghum flour cookies as ice cream inclusions
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作者 J.S.Myers Scott R.Bean +2 位作者 F.M.Aramouni X.Wu K.A.Schmidt 《Grain & Oil Science and Technology》 CAS 2023年第2期100-111,共12页
Flour serves as one of the primary ingredients of cookies,which affects dough properties,physical changes during baking,and post-baking cookie properties.Two gluten-free cookie formulations were developed with the goa... Flour serves as one of the primary ingredients of cookies,which affects dough properties,physical changes during baking,and post-baking cookie properties.Two gluten-free cookie formulations were developed with the goal of use as inclusions in frozen desserts.Blonde and chocolate cookies were made with sorghum flour or all-purpose wheat flour and then evaluated for physical and chemical properties.To determine functionality in a frozen state,texture analysis was conducted on cookies at−30℃,−17°C,and 20℃,replicating various ice cream storage temperatures.To simulate the process effect of incorporating the product into a frozen dessert,cookies were crumbled mechanically,and the crumbles were separated based on size.When evaluating cookies,no significant differences(P<0.05)were observed in width(W),thickness(T),spread,and W/T ratio for flour source within formula.Blonde cookies had lower moisture contents than chocolate cookies;further,blonde cookies made from sorghum flour had less moisture than those made with wheat flour.As the cookie temperature decreased from 20℃to−17℃,cookie hardness increased,with flour type having no effect.Within formula,cookies had similar instrumental color parameters.However,blonde cookies made from sorghum flour produced more smaller-sized pieces than those made from wheat flour.The results of this study demonstrate that sorghum flour cookies have desirable properties for use as inclusions in ice cream and other frozen desserts. 展开更多
关键词 COOKIE SORGHUM Inclusion GLUTEN-FREE Ice cream
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Comprehensive treatment of deep frostbite of multiple fingers after trauma:A case report
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作者 Xi-Hua Wang Min Li +3 位作者 Yue Cheng Guang-Jian Wang Guo-Le Lin Wei-Nan Liu 《World Journal of Clinical Cases》 SCIE 2023年第34期8219-8227,共9页
BACKGROUND Frostbite is becoming increasingly common in urban environments,and severe cases can lead to tissue loss.The treatment goal is to preserve tissue and function;the sooner appropriate treatment is administere... BACKGROUND Frostbite is becoming increasingly common in urban environments,and severe cases can lead to tissue loss.The treatment goal is to preserve tissue and function;the sooner appropriate treatment is administered,the more tissue can be saved.However,not every patient with deep frostbite seeks medical care promptly.CASE SUMMARY We report the case of a 73-year-old male patient who was lost in the wilderness for 2 d due to trauma and confusion.He experienced deep frostbite on multiple fingers.Treatment should not be discontinued for patients with deep frostbite who present after the optimum treatment timing.Bullae that no longer form(bloody)blisters within 24 h of aspiration should be removed.Mucopolysaccharide polysulfate cream has clinical value in frostbite treatment.The patient was transferred to Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Hospital 12 h after being rescued.The patient had contraindications for thrombolysis,the most effective treatment,due to intracranial hemorrhage and presenting past the optimum treatment timing.We devised a comprehensive treatment plan,which involved delayed use vasodilators and high-pressure oxygen therapy at day 49 post-injury.We experimented with mucopolysaccharide polysulfate cream to treat the frostbite.The aim of the treatment was to safeguard as much tissue as possible.In the end,the fingers that suffered from frostbite were able to be partially preserved.CONCLUSION The case indicated that patients with severe frostbite who missed the optimal treatment time and had contraindications for thrombolysis could still partially preserve the affected limbs through comprehensive treatment. 展开更多
关键词 FROSTBITE Wound care Mucopolysaccharide polysulfate cream Case report
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Effect of Soursop Puree and Gum Arabic on the Sensory Properties of Non-Dairy Coconut Milk-Based Ice Cream
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作者 Sarah N. Mulwa Symon M. Mahungu Benard K. Muinde 《Food and Nutrition Sciences》 2023年第7期670-686,共17页
Coconut (Cocos nucifera) milk-based ice cream is one of the innovative non-dairy milk products gaining popularity among consumers. The objective was to develop coconut milk-based ice cream incorporated with soursop (A... Coconut (Cocos nucifera) milk-based ice cream is one of the innovative non-dairy milk products gaining popularity among consumers. The objective was to develop coconut milk-based ice cream incorporated with soursop (Annona muricata) fruit puree and gum Arabic from Acacia senegal var. kerensis, conduct a sensory evaluation using descriptive tests by trained panelists (n = 9) then evaluate for consumer acceptability by semi trained panelists (n = 30). A seven-point hedonic scale for colour, taste, flavour, texture and overall acceptability was used. The data obtained was subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the means were separated to determine their significance differences. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was done for factor reduction to make it easy for the multi-dimensional descriptive data to be interpreted. PCA results indicated that unit increase in soursop and gum Arabic in the ice cream led to 83.1% increase in starchy taste, 78.3% increase in consistency and 73.6% decrease in coconut aroma. For consumer acceptability test, the obtained results showed that, soursop puree addition at successive levels led to a statistically significant effect (p < 0.05) on colour, flavour, texture, taste and overall acceptability while of gum Arabic incorporation was not significant (p > 0.05) for all attributes. The effect due to interaction between gum Arabic and soursop puree at the different levels however was significant for colour, flavour and texture but not significant for taste and overall acceptability. Our results therefore point to a potential application of soursop fruit and gum Arabic as alternative ingredients in the manufacture of a non-dairy ice cream with desirable sensory properties that would expand the variety of options consumers can choose from. 展开更多
关键词 Consumer Acceptability Ice Cream Non-Dairy Sensory Properties Soursop Puree
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Common Emulsifier Combination Skin Feeling Research and Recommendation
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作者 Wang Yiyu Lan Fangyi Zha Jinqi 《China Detergent & Cosmetics》 CAS 2023年第4期20-29,共10页
Emulsifier is an important component of emulsified skin care BASE(matrix),and the common influencing factors affecting the skin feel of BASE are:emollient,thickeners,and emulsifier.The choice of emulsifier is crucial ... Emulsifier is an important component of emulsified skin care BASE(matrix),and the common influencing factors affecting the skin feel of BASE are:emollient,thickeners,and emulsifier.The choice of emulsifier is crucial to the skin feel of cosmetics.In this paper,12 classical emulsifiers were selected and 13 combinations of them were made.Thirteen creams were designed using the same formulation structure,their physicochemical indexes were determined,and their skin feel was tested and evaluated using five expert panel scores,with the test site being the hand.Physicochemical parameters included pH and viscosity.Skin feel indicators include:stickiness,silkiness,whiteheads,greasiness at the end of application,absorption,softness after use,etc.The BASE formulations of the creams were tested and evaluated by five experts.Recommendations were also made for the selection of emulsifier combinations in the design of cream BASE formulations. 展开更多
关键词 face cream skin feel EMULSIFIER skin feel index
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Topical Application of Synbiotic Bacillus Preparations Positively Affects Skin (Micro) Biology
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作者 Ze’evi Ma’or Robin Temmerman Xinmin Zhang 《Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications》 2023年第2期107-123,共17页
Alteration in skin microbiome profile is involved in many skin conditions, therefore, microbiome modulation is a reasonable target for skin health. Probiotic skincare was suggested, and leave-on synbiotic skincare pre... Alteration in skin microbiome profile is involved in many skin conditions, therefore, microbiome modulation is a reasonable target for skin health. Probiotic skincare was suggested, and leave-on synbiotic skincare preparation, blending bacillus spores, as probiotic active ingredient, and inulin sugar, as prebiotic booster, is evaluated, using microarray, 16S gene sequencing, and clinical skin analyses. Topical application of leave-on synbiotic skincare on skin model activates a profound effect on skin biology, expressed in the transcriptome level, with higher than 10% affected genes. The significance of the synbiotic preparation on skin biology was assured, indicating the involvement of major biological pathways. Blending probiotic with Polygonum aviculare plant extract, had triggered a distinct gene expression alteration, demonstrating the sensitivity of skin responses to different active substances. A synbiotic skincare application, had successfully introduced live and active Bacillus probiotics on human skin, detectable days after application was finalized. Following synbiotic application, the microbial content of several microorganisms, related to skin pathologies, was reduced, while the content of bacillus species, representing a healthier microbiome status, was increased, suggesting that frequent application may lead to overall healthier skin microbiome. Acne vulgaris involves unbalanced skin microbiome, with expansion of Cutibacterium acnes. The efficacy of a synbiotic skin cream was assessed to improve acne symptoms, including IGA dermatologist acne severity score, the number of counted acne lesions, measured skin oiliness and skin redness, visual appearance of skin-pores, skin smoothness and softness, and Acne Quality of Life Index. 展开更多
关键词 Probiotic Cosmetics Skin Transcriptome Bacillus Ferment Polygonum Extract Acne Vulgaris Prebiotic Synbiotic Skin Cream
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基于CREAM追溯法的变电运行人因失效分析
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作者 王永 徐丹 《电力系统装备》 2023年第10期60-62,共3页
文章以GREAM追溯法为基础对人为因素给电力系统造成的影响进行研究分析,构建变电站运行人为故障模型,创建真正适用于变电运行人因失效事故分析的方法,以期为电力系统中变电运行安全保障体系的整体构建提供理论支持。
关键词 变电运行 人因失效 CREAM追溯法
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基于CREAM的管线打开作业人因失误事故研究
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作者 王冬冬 王登辉 李慕晨 《安全》 2023年第7期15-22,共8页
为提升管线打开作业的人因可靠性,深入探讨管线打开作业人因失误事故发生的根原因,基于认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM),建立了管线打开作业人因失误模型,将失误模式划分为疏忽、擅自、错误、违反,建立了涵盖环境、人、信息、组织、危... 为提升管线打开作业的人因可靠性,深入探讨管线打开作业人因失误事故发生的根原因,基于认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM),建立了管线打开作业人因失误模型,将失误模式划分为疏忽、擅自、错误、违反,建立了涵盖环境、人、信息、组织、危险源、技术6个方面的前因分类表和后果—前因追溯表,追溯分析人因失误的根原因,并运用扩展法对人因失误的发生概率进行定量预测。将模型应用于管线打开作业人因失误事故实例分析,结果显示:追溯到事故发生的根原因与员工个性缺陷、管理问题、安全意识欠缺等方面相关;获得3个人因失误事件的人因失误概率值分别为0.006、0.04、0.006;并提出了有针对性的建议、措施。 展开更多
关键词 管线打开作业 认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM) 追溯分析 人因失误
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地铁盾构施工人因可靠性分析的加权模糊CREAM模型 被引量:9
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作者 王宁 杜修力 +2 位作者 张明聚 许成顺 卢鑫月 《天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版)》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第2期200-210,共11页
针对地铁盾构施工风险评估中人因可靠性分析(HRA)问题,构建了一种加权模糊CREAM模型.首先,利用复相关性分析和证据理论确定共同绩效条件因子(CPC)的合理权重.其次,基于现行规范编制CPC评价细则,利用统计方法得到了CPC水平隶属函数.在此... 针对地铁盾构施工风险评估中人因可靠性分析(HRA)问题,构建了一种加权模糊CREAM模型.首先,利用复相关性分析和证据理论确定共同绩效条件因子(CPC)的合理权重.其次,基于现行规范编制CPC评价细则,利用统计方法得到了CPC水平隶属函数.在此基础上,提出将离散基本控制模式图连续化的方法,建立了地铁盾构施工人因失误概率(HEP)点估计值预测模型,通过4条公理验证了模型的合理性和可靠性.结果表明:加权模糊CREAM模型将权重引入到CPC效应值计算和HEP推理中,能更好地反映不同CPC因子对人行为绩效的影响,可为地铁盾构施工HRA提供定量评估数据. 展开更多
关键词 盾构施工 人因可靠性分析 施工风险 CREAM
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第二代人的可靠性分析方法的进展 被引量:20
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作者 高佳 沈祖培 何旭洪 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 2004年第2期15-19,共5页
在探讨第一代人的可靠性分析 (HRA)方法的局限性之后 ,笔者进而探讨第二代HRA方法的模型 ,建立在多种学科 (认知心理学、行为科学、可靠性工程等 )相互结合的基础上 ,又着重研究产生人的行为 /绩效的情景环境以及它们是如何影响人的行... 在探讨第一代人的可靠性分析 (HRA)方法的局限性之后 ,笔者进而探讨第二代HRA方法的模型 ,建立在多种学科 (认知心理学、行为科学、可靠性工程等 )相互结合的基础上 ,又着重研究产生人的行为 /绩效的情景环境以及它们是如何影响人的行为 /动作的 ,并与工业系统的运行经验和现场或模拟机获得的信息紧密结合。重点介绍了以“失误分析技术”(ATHEANA)和“认知可靠性和失误分析方法”(CREAM)为代表的第二代HRA方法。它们是当前HRA领域中的具有应用和发展前景的新框架思想。 展开更多
关键词 可靠性分析 HRA 失误分析技术 ATHEANA法 CREAM法 失误率预测技术 安全事故
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河南省降雨侵蚀力时空变异与不同算法比较研究 被引量:8
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作者 吴明作 申冲 +2 位作者 杨喜田 张志方 张军 《水土保持研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第2期10-13,20,共5页
利用河南省119个气象台站自建站至2003年间不同年限的逐日降雨量资料,采用不同方法分别计算了河南省各县(市)不同时段的降雨侵蚀力,对不同算法的时空差异进行了比较。结果表明:河南省多年平均降雨侵蚀力总体趋势是由北向南、由西向东递... 利用河南省119个气象台站自建站至2003年间不同年限的逐日降雨量资料,采用不同方法分别计算了河南省各县(市)不同时段的降雨侵蚀力,对不同算法的时空差异进行了比较。结果表明:河南省多年平均降雨侵蚀力总体趋势是由北向南、由西向东递增,最大值出现在南部的鸡公山、新县与商城;各地点的降雨侵蚀力在不同年份变异较大,无明显的周期性等规律;各种算法均可表现出时空变化特征,但具体数据差异较大。认为以逐日降雨量为基础的3种算法比较接近实际情况,其中CREAMS模型因其计算简便性可进行较广泛应用。 展开更多
关键词 河南省 降雨侵蚀力 日雨量模型 CREAMS模型 时空变异
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