A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing eve...A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.展开更多
Regarding KMV model identification credit risk profile of small and medium-sized listed companies, at present, domestic scholars has made some achievements in the process of the KMV model combined with China’s nation...Regarding KMV model identification credit risk profile of small and medium-sized listed companies, at present, domestic scholars has made some achievements in the process of the KMV model combined with China’s national conditions. In this paper, we will amend the model by using uncertain interest rate instead of fixed rate on the basis of existing research. Comparing the uncertain KMV model to traditional KMV model with ST-listed companies and non-ST-listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, we find that it performs slightly better as a predictor in uncertain KMV model and in out of sample forecasts.展开更多
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 10471088, 60572126）
文摘A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.
文摘Regarding KMV model identification credit risk profile of small and medium-sized listed companies, at present, domestic scholars has made some achievements in the process of the KMV model combined with China’s national conditions. In this paper, we will amend the model by using uncertain interest rate instead of fixed rate on the basis of existing research. Comparing the uncertain KMV model to traditional KMV model with ST-listed companies and non-ST-listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, we find that it performs slightly better as a predictor in uncertain KMV model and in out of sample forecasts.
