Crime Prediction Methods Based on Machine Learning:A Survey

The objective of crime prediction,one of the most important technologies in social computing,is to extract useful information from many existing criminal records to predict the next process-related crime.It can aid the police in obtaining criminal information and warn the public to be vigilant in certain areas.With the rapid growth of big data,the Internet of Things,and other technologies,as well as the increasing use of artificial intelligence in forecasting models,crime prediction models based on deep learning techniques are accelerating.Therefore,it is necessary to classify the existing crime prediction algorithms and compare in depth the attributes and conditions that play an essential role in the analysis of crime prediction algorithms.Existing crime prediction methods can be roughly divided into two categories:those based on conventional machine learning and those based on contemporary deep learning.This survey analyses the fundamental theories and procedures.The most frequently used data sets are then enumerated,and the fundamental procedures of various algorithms are also analyzed in this paper.In light of the insufficient scale of existing data in this field,the ambiguity of data types used to predict crimes,and the absence of public data sets that have a significant impact on the research of algorithm models,this survey proposes the construction of a machine learning-based big data research model to address these issues.Future researchers who will enter this field are provided with a guide to the direction of future research development.

Predicting the Type of Crime: Intelligence Gathering and Crime Analysis

Crimes are expected to rise with an increase in population and the rising gap between society’s income levels.Crimes contribute to a significant portion of the socioeconomic loss to any society,not only through its indirect damage to the social fabric and peace but also the more direct negative impacts on the economy,social parameters,and reputation of a nation.Policing and other preventive resources are limited and have to be utilized.The conventional methods are being superseded by more modern approaches of machine learning algorithms capable of making predictions where the relationships between the features and the outcomes are complex.Making it possible for such algorithms to provide indicators of specific areas that may become criminal hot-spots.These predictions can be used by policymakers and police personals alike to make effective and informed strategies that can curtail criminal activities and contribute to the nation’s development.This paper aims to predict factors that most affected crimes in Saudi Arabia by developing a machine learning model to predict an acceptable output value.Our results show that FAMD as features selection methods showed more accuracy on machine learning classifiers than the PCA method.The naïve Bayes classifier performs better than other classifiers on both features selections methods with an accuracy of 97.53%for FAMD,and PCA equals to 97.10%.

Prediction of Extremist Behaviour and Suicide Bombing from Terrorism Contents Using Supervised Learning

This study proposes an architecture for the prediction of extremist human behaviour from projected suicide bombings.By linking‘dots’of police data comprising scattered information of people,groups,logistics,locations,communication,and spatiotemporal characters on different social media groups,the proposed architecture will spawn beneficial information.This useful information will,in turn,help the police both in predicting potential terrorist events and in investigating previous events.Furthermore,this architecture will aid in the identification of criminals and their associates and handlers.Terrorism is psychological warfare,which,in the broadest sense,can be defined as the utilisation of deliberate violence for economic,political or religious purposes.In this study,a supervised learning-based approach was adopted to develop the proposed architecture.The dataset was prepared from the suicide bomb blast data of Pakistan obtained from the South Asia Terrorism Portal(SATP).As the proposed architecture was simulated,the supervised learning-based classifiers na飗e Bayes and Hoeffding Tree reached 72.17%accuracy.One of the additional benefits this study offers is the ability to predict the target audience of potential suicide bomb blasts,which may be used to eliminate future threats or,at least,minimise the number of casualties and other property losses.

Dynamic road crime risk prediction with urban open data

Crime risk prediction is helpful for urban safety and citizens’life quality.However,existing crime studies focused on coarse-grained prediction,and usually failed to capture the dynamics of urban crimes.The key challenge is data sparsity,since that 1)not all crimes have been recorded,and 2)crimes usually occur with low frequency.In this paper,we propose an effective framework to predict fine-grained and dynamic crime risks in each road using heterogeneous urban data.First,to address the issue of unreported crimes,we propose a cross-aggregation soft-impute(CASI)method to deal with possible unreported crimes.Then,we use a novel crime risk measurement to capture the crime dynamics from the perspective of influence propagation,taking into consideration of both time-varying and location-varying risk propagation.Based on the dynamically calculated crime risks,we design contextual features(i.e.,POI distributions,taxi mobility,demographic features)from various urban data sources,and propose a zero-inflated negative binomial regression(ZINBR)model to predict future crime risks in roads.The experiments using the real-world data from New York City show that our framework can accurately predict road crime risks,and outperform other baseline methods.

Investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime incidents number in different cities

The COVID-19 pandemic is strongly affecting many aspects of human life and society around the world.To investigate whether this pandemic also influences crime,the differences in crime incidents numbers before and during the pandemic in four large cities(namely Washington DC,Chicago,New York City and Los Angeles)are investigated.Moreover,the Granger causal relationships between crime incident numbers and new cases of COVID-19 are also examined.Based on that,new cases of COVID-19 with significant Granger causal correlations are used to improve the crime prediction performance.The results show that crime is generally impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic,but it varies in different cities and with different crime types.Most types of crimes have seen fewer incidents numbers during the pandemic than before.Several Granger causal correlations are found between the COVID-19 cases and crime incidents in these cities.More specifically,crime incidents numbers of theft in Washington DC,Chicago and New York City,fraud in Washington DC and Los Angeles,assault in Chicago and New York City,and robbery in Los Angeles and New York City,are significantly Granger caused by the new case of COVID-19.These results may be partially explained by the Routine Activity theory and Opportunity theory that people may prefer to stay at home to avoid being infected with COVID-19 during the pandemic,giving fewer chances for crimes.In addition,involving new cases of COVID-19 as a variable can slightly improve the performance of crime prediction in terms of some specific types of crime.This study is expected to obtain deeper insights into the relationships between the pandemic and crime in different cities,and to provide new attempts for crime prediction during the pandemic.