Critical Time Span and Nonlinear Action Structure of Climatic Atmosphere and Ocean

This paper studies the critical time span and the approximate nonlinear action structure of climatic atmosphere and ocean. The critical time span of the climatic atmosphere and ocean, which is related to the spatial resolution required, the strength of nonlinear action, and the calculation exactness, may represent the relative temporal scale of predictability. As far as the same characteristic spatial scale is concerned, the minimum critical time span of the ocean is about 9 times of that of atmosphere, several days or more. Usually, the stronger the nonlinear action, the shorter the critical time span with smooth changes of external forces. The approximate structure of nonlinear action of climatic atmosphere and ocean is: the nonlinear action decreases usually with increasing latitude, which is related to the role of the Coriolis force in fluid motion (forming geostrophic current); the nonlinear action changes with the anomalous cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation shear, for instance, when the strength of anomalous eastward zonal circulation is comparable to that of anomalous meridional circulation, the nonlinear action is the strongest; wind stress plus gradient forces enhance the nonlinear action, etc.

Hybrid stacking ensemble algorithm and simulated annealing optimization for stability evaluation of underground entry-type excavations

The stability of underground entry-type excavations(UETEs)is of paramount importance for ensuring the safety of mining operations.As more engineering cases are accumulated,machine learning(ML)has demonstrated great potential for the stability evaluation of UETEs.In this study,a hybrid stacking ensemble method aggregating support vector machine(SVM),k-nearest neighbor(KNN),decision tree(DT),random forest(RF),multilayer perceptron neural network(MLPNN)and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)algorithms was proposed to assess the stability of UETEs.Firstly,a total of 399 historical cases with two indicators were collected from seven mines.Subsequently,to pursue better evaluation performance,the hyperparameters of base learners(SVM,KNN,DT,RF,MLPNN and XGBoost)and meta learner(MLPNN)were tuned by combining a five-fold cross validation(CV)and simulated annealing(SA)approach.Based on the optimal hyperparameters configuration,the stacking ensemble models were constructed using the training set(75%of the data).Finally,the performance of the proposed approach was evaluated by two global metrics(accuracy and Cohen’s Kappa)and three within-class metrics(macro average of the precision,recall and F1-score)on the test set(25%of the data).In addition,the evaluation results were compared with six base learners optimized by SA.The hybrid stacking ensemble algorithm achieved better comprehensive performance with the accuracy,Kappa coefficient,macro average of the precision,recall and F1-score were 0.92,0.851,0.885,0.88 and 0.883,respectively.The rock mass rating(RMR)had the most important influence on evaluation results.Moreover,the critical span graph(CSG)was updated based on the proposed model,representing a significant improvement compared with the previous studies.This study can provide valuable guidance for stability analysis and risk management of UETEs.However,it is necessary to consider more indicators and collect more extensive and balanced dataset to validate the model in future.

Stability prediction of underground entry-type excavations based on particle swarm optimization and gradient boosting decision tree

The stability of underground entry-type excavations will directly affect the working environment and the safety of staff.Empirical critical span graphs and traditional statistics learning methods can not meet the requirements of high accuracy for stability assessment of entry-type excavations.Therefore,this study proposes a new prediction method based on machine learning to scientifically adjust the critical span graph.Accordingly,the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is used to optimize the core parameters of the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT),abbreviated as PSO-GBDT.Moreover,the classification performance of eight other classifiers including GDBT,k-nearest neighbors(KNN),two kinds of support vector machines(SVM),Gaussian naive Bayes(GNB),logistic regression(LR)and linear discriminant analysis(LDA)are also applied to compare with the proposed model.Findings revealed that compared with the other eight models,the prediction performance of PSO-GBDT is undoubtedly the most reliable,and its classification accuracy is up to 0.93.Therefore,this model has great potential to provide a more scientific and accurate choice for the stability prediction of underground excavations.In addition,each classification model is used to predict the stability category of several grid points divided by the critical span graph,and the updated critical span graph of each model is discussed in combination with previous studies.The results show that the PSO-GBDT model has the advantages of being scientific,accurate and efficient in updating the critical span graph,and its output decision boundary has strict theoretical support,which can help mine operators make favorable economic decisions.