The Effects of Cropping Methods on Growth, Crop Index and Yield Response to Water of Rice （Oryza sativa L.） in Rainfed Agriculture

In this study, four combinations of crops： rice （C）, rice-maize （MCSI）, rice-cassava （MCS2） and rice-maize-cassava （MCS3） with 3 m × 3 m each plots at two field areas--Saptosari and Tanjungsari were observed. Both field areas are located in Gunungkidul district, South-Central of Java Island, with that 93% at those areas are 185 m to 500 m above sea level and high proportion of multiple cropping systems （MCS）. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of different cropping method on growth, crop index and yield response to water of rice in rainfed agriculture. Mathematical models were developed to describe rice growth. The rice height was followed monomolecular function and the number of tillers followed exponential polynomial function. Crop index was calculated from climate data during plant growth phase. And yield response to water was calculated from actual evapotranspiration （ETa） and the maximum evapotranspiration （ETm）. The results showed that the height of rice was not significantly different between each combination （P 〉 0.05）. Number of tillers was also not significant （P 〉 0.05）. However, monoculture treatment had more number of tillers than rice in MCS. Crop index of rice at Saptosari was higher than at Tanjungsari. Based on the calculation of evapotranspiration （ET）, water deficit at initial was less than at mid-season （ETa 〈 ETm） and affected water stress. Statistical analysis showed that cropping methods did not significantly affect rice growth and yield （P 〉 0.05）.

The influences of canopy temperature measuring on the derived crop water stress index

Crop water stress index(CWSI)is widely used for efficient irrigation management.Precise canopy temperature(T_(c))measurement is necessary to derive a reliable CWSI.The objective of this research was to investigate the influences of atmospheric conditions,settled height,view angle of infrared thermography,and investigating time of temperature measuring on the performance of the CWSI.Three irrigation treatments were used to create different soil water conditions during the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 winter wheat-growing seasons.The CWSI was calculated using the CWSI-E(an empirical approach)and CWSI-T(a theoretical approach)based on the T_(c).Weather conditions were recorded continuously throughout the experimental period.The results showed that atmospheric conditions influenced the estimation of the CWSI;when the vapor pressure deficit(VPD)was>2000 Pa,the estimated CWSI was related to soil water conditions.The height of the installed infrared thermograph influenced the T_(c)values,and the differences among the T_(c)values measured at height of 3,5,and 10 m was smaller in the afternoon than in the morning.However,the lens of the thermometer facing south recorded a higher T_(c)than those facing east or north,especially at a low height,indicating that the direction of the thermometer had a significant influence on T_(c).There was a large variation in CWSI derived at different times of the day,and the midday measurements(12:00-15:00)were the most reliable for estimating CWSI.Negative linear relationships were found between the transpiration rate and CWSI-E(R^(2)of 0.3646-0.5725)and CWSI-T(R^(2)of 0.5407-0.7213).The relations between fraction of available soil water(FASW)with CWSI-T was higher than that with CWSI-E,indicating CWSI-T was more accurate for predicting crop water status.In addition,The R^(2)between CWSI-T and FASW at 14:00 was higher than that at other times,indicating that 14:00 was the optimal time for using the CWSI for crop water status monitoring.Relative higher yield of winter wheat was obtained with average seasonal values of CWSI-E and CWSI-T around 0.23 and 0.25-0.26,respectively.The CWSI-E values were more easily influenced by meteorological factors and the timing of the measurements,and using the theoretical approach to derive the CWSI was recommended for precise irrigation water management.

Monitoring the Sequential Cropping Index of Arable Land in Zhejiang Province of China Using MODIS-NDVI

The sequential cropping index of arable land is important agricultural information. The aim of this article is to monitor and analyze the parameter, and offer reference for agricultural production. The cropping index of arable land in Zhejiang Province, China from 2001 to 2004 was calculated using the second order difference based MODIS （moderate resolution imagine spectroradimeter） vegetation data from NASA （National Aeronautic and Space Administration） in America and the land use map with a scale of 1：25 000. It was found that the peak of the time series of the NDVI curve indicated that the ground biomass of crops reached the maximum, and fluctuated with the crops growing processes such as sowing, seeding, heading, ripeness, and harvesting within one year. Thus, the sequential cropping index was defined as the number of peaks of the time series of the NDVI curve. The sequential cropping index of all cities in Zhejiang Province, China was worked out. It is seen from the spatial distribution that the cropping index in the southwest Zhejiang Province is larger than that in the northeast. As for the temporal distribution, the sequential cropping index decreased from 2001 to 2003, whereas it increased slightly from 2003 to 2004. However, the index of arable land was relatively low, as far as the geographic position and climatic resource were concerned, and the potential of the sequential cropping index was great.

The concept and statistical method of drought resistance index in crops

There is evindence showing that stress susceptibility index(SSI)(1一Yd/Yp)/(1—(?)d/(?)p)used as a measure of drought resistance of crop on the field is an altered form of droughtresistance coefficient(DRC)(Yd/Yp).The correlative coefficient SSI and DRC is r=-1.Therefore,the SSI doesn’t improve the defect of the DRC.After two years experiments per-formed by using thirty winter wheat varieties as trial materials,the concept of drought resistanceindex in crops was put forward.Its expressing equation is:the yield in drylan×drought resis-tance coefficient/average yield in dryland.It makes the drought resistance coefficient(physicalindex)correlate well with the yield in dryland(agronomy index)and is suitable for breeder.

Introducing a drought index to a crop model can help to reduce the gap between the simulated and statistical yield

A well-established and pre-calibrated crop model can normally represent the overall characteristics of crop growth and yield.However,it can hardly include all relevant factors that affect the yield,and usually overestimates the crop yield when extreme weather conditions occur.In this study,the authors first introduced a drought index(the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)into a process-based crop model(the Agro-C model).Then,the authors evaluated the model’s performance in simulating the historical crop yields in a double cropping system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China,by comparing the model simulations to the statistical records.The results showed that the adjusted Agro-C model significantly improved its performance in simulating the yields of both maize and wheat as affected by drought events,compared with its original version.It can be concluded that incorporating a drought index into a crop model is feasible and can facilitate closing the gap between simulated and statistical yields.

Using Crop Management Scenario Simulations to Evaluate the Sensitivity of the Ohio Phosphorus Risk Index

Phosphorus (P) risk indices are commonly used in the USA to estimate the field-scale risk of agricultural P runoff. Because the Ohio P Risk Index is increasingly being used to judge farmer performance, it is important to evaluate weighting/scoring of all P Index parameters to ensure Ohio farmers are credited for practices that reduce P runoff risk and not unduly penalized for things not demonstrably related to runoff risk. A sensitivity analysis provides information as to how sensitive the P Index score is to changes in inputs. The objectives were to determine 1) which inputs are most highly associated with P Index scores and 2) the relative impact of each input variable on resultant P Index scores. The current approach uses simulations across 6134 Ohio point locations and five crop management scenarios (CMSs), representing increasing soil disturbance. The CMSs range from all no-till, which is being promoted in Ohio, rotational tillage, which is a common practice in Ohio to full tillage to represent an extreme practice. Results showed that P Index scores were best explained by soil test P (31.9%) followed by connectivity to water (29.7%), soil erosion (13.4%), fertilizer application amount (11.3%), runoff class (9.5%), fertilizer application method (2.2%), and finally filter strip (2.0%). Ohio P Index simulations across CMSs one through five showed that >40% scored <15 points (low) while <1.5% scored >45 points (very high). Given Ohio water quality problems, the Ohio P Index needs to be stricter. The current approach is useful for Ohio P Index evaluations and revision decisions by spatially illustrating the impact of potential changes regionally and state-wide.

Heavy Metal Characteristics and Comprehensive Quality Index Evaluation of Soil-Crop System in 11 Cities of Yunnan Province, China

Yunnan province in China is a high background area of soil heavy metals, and agricultural planting and industrial and mining activities are relatively frequent, which aggravate soil heavy metal pollution. However, at present, there are few reports on the overall or large-scale soil-crop pollution and risk assessment of heavy metals in Yunnan Province. This study through 11 cities in Yunnan province of China farmland soil-crop systems of heavy metal lead, cadmium content, enrichment coefficient is analyzed, and using the method of potential ecological harm index, index of compressive quality to evaluate heavy metal pollution soil-crop system risk. Results showed that the average content of soil heavy metal Cd and Pb were 1.31 mg/kg, 64.17 mg/kg, which are higher than the background value of Yunnan province. The average contents of Pb and Cd in the edible parts of crops were 0.20 mg/kg, 0.08 mg/kg. The average content of heavy metals in crops in Diqing (Pb) and Nujiang (Cd) was 0.72 mg/kg and 0.148 mg/kg. The enrichment coefficients of heavy metals in edible parts of crops were the largest in Diqing (Pb) and Zhaotong (Cd). The average value of ecological risk index of Pb element in soil is 2.79, which indicates that the study area is in a slight ecological hazard, the average value of the ecological risk index of Cd in soil is 126.43. The average value of the comprehensive quality impact index (IICQ) is 4.27, which indicates that the study area is moderately polluted. In this study, the contents of heavy metals Cd and Pb in soils and crops in different administrative regions were determined, and the heavy metals Pb and Cd in soil-crop system of Yunnan province, China were evaluated, it is expected to have important scientific and theoretical significance for the safe use of cultivated land to export safe agricultural products and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Yunnan Plateau.

长期施肥下土壤氮素指标与小麦/玉米产量关系研究

为明确施肥对典型潮土区土壤氮素指标的影响以及氮素指标与作物产量的量化关系,本研究利用长期定位施肥试验系统评估施肥对土壤全氮、碱解氮、酸解有机氮组分、微生物量氮含量的影响,并进一步定量分析氮素指标与小麦、玉米产量间的关系。结果表明,与单施化肥或不施肥相比,长期化肥与秸秆或有机肥配施在显著提高土壤全氮含量的同时,对碱解氮、酸解总氮、酸解铵态氮、氨基酸态氮与微生物量氮含量的提高也有明显的促进作用。除土壤全氮外的其他氮素指标含量在高量化肥-有机肥配施、化肥-秸秆还田和常量化肥-有机肥配施处理间无显著差异。土壤全氮、微生物量氮和碱解氮含量是对作物产量影响程度相对较大的氮素指标。土壤全氮含量每增加0.1 g·kg^(−1),小麦和玉米分别增产822.7和968.2 kg·hm^(-2)。土微生物量氮与碱解氮含量每增加1 mg·kg^(−1),小麦增产195.2与58.1 kg·hm^(-2);玉米增产189.9与79.1 kg·hm^(-2)。酸解总氮与氨基酸态氮含量对小麦产量也有显著影响,酸解总氮与氨基酸态氮含量每增加1 mg·kg^(−1),小麦分别增产15.8与30.0 kg·hm^(-2)。综上所述,化肥与秸秆或有机肥配施可提高潮土氮素库容与供氮能力。小麦、玉米产量随土壤全氮、微生物量氮与碱解氮含量的提高呈线性增长,小麦产量与酸解总氮和氨基酸态氮含量呈显著正相关。本研究为典型潮土区地力培育与粮食丰产提供了理论依据和技术支撑。

基于CROPWAT模型的玉米水分盈亏及灌溉制度研究

为研究黑龙江省中部地区玉米生育期内需水量、水分盈亏指数(CWSDI)、干旱等级变化和不同水文年灌溉制度,基于哈尔滨市1955-2014年气象数据、土壤数据和玉米作物参数,利用CROPWAT模型计算玉米生育期内需水量、有效降雨量和灌溉需水量,计算水分盈亏指数并划分干旱等级,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析以上因素变化趋势,针对不同典型水文年制定灌溉制度。结果表明,该地区1955-2014年生育期内玉米需水量以9.41 mm/10 a的速率下降;丰水年、平水年,枯水年和特枯水年需水量分别为407.80、423.80、452.00和485.60 mm;多年平均CWSDI没有明显变化,生育期内每月CWSDI变化较为明显,干旱等级分析表明在玉米生长初期和生长后期较干旱;不同水文年干旱情况不同,除丰水年外,有效降雨量均难以满足玉米生育期内需水量,不同典型水文年应建立不同的灌溉制度。特枯水年、枯水年和平水年的灌水净定额分别为151.30、117.10和39.70 mm。

Spatial Exploration of Multiple Cropping Efficiency in China Based on Time Series Remote Sensing Data and Econometric Model

This study explored spatial explicit multiple cropping efficiency （MCE） of China in 2005 by coupling time series remote sensing data with an econometric model - stochastic frontier analysis （SFA）. We firstly extracted multiple cropping index （MCI） on the basis of the close relationship between crop phenologies and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer （MODIS） enhanced vegetation index （EVI） value. Then, SFA model was employed to calculate MCE, by considering several indicators of meteorological conditions as inputs of multiple cropping systems and the extracted MCI was the output. The result showed that 46% of the cultivated land in China in 2005 was multiple cropped, including 39% double- cropped land and 7% triple-cropped land. Most of the multiple cropped land was distributed in the south of Great Wall. The total efficiency of multiple cropping in China was 87.61% in 2005. Southwestern China, Ganxin Region, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Huanghuaihai Plain were the four agricultural zones with the largest rooms for increasing MCI and improving MCE. Fragmental terrain, soil salinization, deficiency of water resources, and loss of labor force were the obstacles for MCE promotion in different zones. The method proposed in this paper is theoretically reliable for MCE extraction, whereas further studies are need to be done to investigate the most proper indicators of meteorological conditions as the inputs of multiple cropping systems.

Effects of Crop Growth and Development on Land Surface Fluxes

In this study, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis model （CERES3.0） was coupled into the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme （BATS）, which is called BATS CERES, to represent interactions between the land surface and crop growth processes. The effects of crop growth and development on land surface processes were then studied based on numerical simulations using the land surface models. Six sensitivity experiments by BATS show that the land surface fluxes underwent substantial changes when the leaf area index was changed from 0 to 6 m2 m-2. Numerical experiments for Yucheng and Taoyuan stations reveal that the coupled model could capture not only the responses of crop growth and development to environmental conditions, but also the feedbacks to land surface processes. For quantitative evaluation of the effects of crop growth and development on surface fluxes in China, two numerical experiments were conducted over continental China： one by BATS CERES and one by the original BATS. Comparison of the two runs shows decreases of leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover when incorporating dynamic crops in land surface simulation, which lead to less canopy interception, vegetation transpiration, total evapotranspiration, top soil moisture, and more soil evaporation, surface runoff, and root zone soil moisture. These changes are accompanied by decreasing latent heat flux and increasing sensible heat flux in the cropland region. In addition, the comparison between the simulations and observations proved that incorporating the crop growth and development process into the land surface model could reduce the systematic biases of the simulated leaf area index and top soil moisture, hence improve the simulation of land surface fluxes.

The Mathematical Analysis on the Risk Management Effect of Crop Insurance Plan

As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approach of β index and goes on to analyze the β index approach under the condition of three kinds of crop insurance plans, β index approach has the advantage that it can dynamically reflect the risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan. At the same insurance level, the smaller the β index is, the better the corresponding risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan is; And vice versa.

Assimilation of Remote Sensing and Crop Model for LAI Estimation Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

Data assimilation in agricultural remote sensing research is of great significance to integrate with remote sensing observations and model simulations for parameters estimation. The present investigation not only designed and realized the Ensemble Kalman Filtering algorithm （EnKF） assimilation by combing the crop growth model （CERES-Wheat） with remote sensing data, but also optimized and updated the key parameters （LAI） of winter wheat by using remote sensing data. Results showed that the assimilation LAI and the observation ones agreed with each other, and the R2 reached 0.8315. So assimilation remote sensing and crop model could provide reference data for the agricultural production.

Sentinel-1 Radar Data Assessment to Estimate Crop Water Stress

Water is an important component in agricultural production for both yield quantity and quality. Although all weather conditions are driving factors in the agricultural sector, the precipitation in rainfed agriculture is the most limiting weather parameter. Water deficit may occur continuously over the total growing period or during any particular growth stage of the crop. Optical remote sensing is very useful but, in cloudy days it becomes useless. Radar penetrates the cloud and collects information through the backscattering data. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was extracted from Landsat 8 satellite data and used to calculate Crop Coefficient (Kc). The FAO-Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). NDVI and Land Surface Temperature (LST) were calculated from satellite data and integrated with air temperature measurements to estimate Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI). Then, both CWSI and potential crop evapotranspiration (ETc) were used to calculate actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Sentinel-1 radar data were calibrated using SNAP software. The relation between backscattering (dB) and CWSI was an inverse relationship and R2 was as high as 0.82.

气候变化背景下山西省气象干旱时空演变特征

干旱频发对生态资源、农业发展造成了严重影响,为揭示山西省干旱时空演变特征,基于1971—2020年山西省24个气象站点的逐月气象资料,利用改进的Mann-Kendall方法检验各气象因子的年变化趋势,采用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物腾发量(ET0),分析单个气象因子变化情况下ET0的变化特征和对气象因子的敏感性,比较各时间尺度(月、季、年尺度)不同干旱指数(降水距平百分率(Pa)、标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI))对山西省干旱灾害监测能力。结果表明:ET0与相对湿度呈负相关,气象因子对ET0的敏感性由大到小依次为相对湿度、日最高气温、2 m处风速、日最低气温、日平均气温,ET0呈波动下降趋势。SPEI能够在多时间尺度上有效反映山西省干旱状况,是该地区干旱监测的有效工具。在月、季、年尺度下,比较3个干旱指数,Pa检测效果较差,SPI和SPEI在某些地理区域存在较大差异,整体而言,SPEI在多数地区检测干旱的性能更好;SPEI-1尺度下,各干旱等级发生频率由大到小依次为轻旱(14.8%)、中旱(10.6%)、重旱(5.6%)、特旱(1.9%),3月干旱发生率最高(34%),12月发生率最低(31.8%),吕梁市、晋中市、大同市干旱情况较为严重;SPEI-3尺度下,季节发生干旱频率由大到小依次为秋季(33.5%)、夏季(32.5%)、春季(31.9%)、冬季(31.4%),大同市、长治市特旱发生频率最高,旱情最为严重,忻州市轻旱频率、朔州市中旱频率、吕梁市重旱频率最高;SPEI-12尺度下,轻、中、重、特旱频率分别为14.8%、10.5%、5.4%、2.3%,SPEI-12相较SPEI-1和SPEI-3识别重旱、特旱的站点更多,并基于游程理论得出,山西省南部干旱频次更多,东部干旱历时更长、干旱严重程度更大,干旱峰值主要出现在山西省南北部,由于年均降水呈波动性下降,年均气温整体上升,山西省的气候趋于暖干化,南北部旱情将有所加重,中部地区旱情有所减缓,全域性干旱仍有很大发生可能。

Assimilation of temporal-spatial leaf area index into the CERES-Wheat model with ensemble Kalman filter and uncertainty assessment for improving winter wheat yield estimation

To accurately estimate winter wheat yields and analyze the uncertainty in crop model data assimilations, winter wheat yield estimates were obtained by assimilating measured or remotely sensed leaf area index （LAI） values. The performances of the calibrated crop environment resource synthesis for wheat （CERES-Wheat） model for two different assimilation scenarios were compared by employing ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF）-based strategies. The uncertainty factors of the crop model data assimilation was analyzed by considering the observation errors, assimilation stages and temporal-spatial scales. Overalll the results indicated a better yield estimate performance when the EnKF-based strategy was used to comprehen- sively consider several factors in the initial conditions and observations. When using this strategy, an adjusted coefficients of determination （R2） of 0.84, a root mean square error （RMSE） of 323 kg ha-1, and a relative errors （RE） of 4.15% were obtained at the field plot scale and an R2 of 0.81, an RMSE of 362 kg ha-1, and an RE of 4.52% were obtained at the pixel scale of 30 mx30 m. With increasing observation errors, the accuracy of the yield estimates obviously decreased, but an acceptable estimate was observed when the observation errors were within 20%. Winter wheat yield estimates could be improved significantly by assimilating observations from the middle to the end of the crop growing seasons. With decreasing assimilation frequency and pixel resolution, the accuracy of the crop yield estimates decreased; however, the computation time decreased. It is important to consider reasonable temporal-spatial scales and assimilation stages to obtain tradeoffs between accuracy and computation time, especially in operational systems used for regional crop yield estimates.

A Preliminary Study on Systems Engineering-Based Method for the Evaluation of Allelopathic Potential in Crops and Its Application

The objective of this study was to develop a method to assess and analyze the total allelopathic potential of crop germplasm and to test this method on four winter wheat accessions commonly planted in the Loess Plateau. A systems engineering model was developed and used to evaluate the total allelopathic potential of crop cultivars. In addition, a method for quantifying the total allelopathic potential in crop accessions was presented. Total allelopathic potential of four winter wheat accessions from the Loess Plateau was estimated and compared using a systems theory approach. The model assessed allelopathic potential in different parts of the plants from the time wheat turned green in spring until maturity. Results from these models indicated that the four wheat accessions had very weak allelopathic potential. Allelopathic potential declined in the order Xiaoyan 22 〉 Ningdong 1 〉 Fengchan 3 〉 Bima 1. This system engineering evaluation method allows for the assessment of allelopathic potential among crop varieties. It will help plant breeders to select and develop allelopathic crop accessions that combine weed suppression properties with agronomic traits related to yield and quality.

长岭县近60年干旱特征分析

本文使用1961—2020年逐日基础气象资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith计算参考作物蒸散量ET0,根据农业干旱等级国标计算作物水分亏缺指数CWDI及作物水分亏缺距平指数CWDI_(a),根据作物水分亏缺距平指数CWDI_(a)干旱等级标准及玉米干旱灾害风险评价方法计算玉米生产5~9月逐旬干旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱发生频率,对5~9月干旱发生规律及干旱年代际变化规律进行分析。结果表明,作物生长季5~9月轻旱、中旱、重旱发生频率多在10%以下,出现频率较低,特旱发生频率最高。特旱及干旱在6月上中旬、9月上中旬出现两个峰值,6月下旬至8月下旬干旱发生频率作物生长季最低。2001—2010年轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱及干旱发生频率最高,2011—2020年干旱发生频率最低。9月轻旱有随年代际增加趋势,7月中旬至8月中旬中旱有随年代际增加趋势,重旱各年代5月上中旬、8月下旬至9月中旬维持较高发生频率。特旱各年代都维持较高发生频率,7月中旬至8月下旬特旱有随年代际增加趋势。

Crop Water Requirements in Egypt Using Remote Sensing Techniques

The common Soil in Egypt is clay soil so common irrigation system is tradition surface irrigation with 60% irrigation efficiency. Agricultural sector consumes more than 80% of water resources under surface irrigation (tradition methods). In arid and semi-arid regions consumptive use is the best index for irrigation requirements. A large part of the irrigation water applied to farm land is consumed by Evapotranspiration (ET). Irrigation water consumption under each of the physical and climatic conditions for large scale will be easier with remote sensing techniques. In Egypt, Agricultural cycle is often tow agricultural seasons yearly;summer and winter. Common summer crops are Maize, Rice and Cotton while common winter crops are Clover and Wheat. Landsat8 bands 4 and 5 provide Red (R) and Near Infra-Red (NIR) measurements and it used to calculate Normalized Deference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and monitoring cultivated areas. The cultivated land area was 3,277,311 ha in August 2013. In this paper Kc = 2 * NDVI ? 0.2 represents the relation between crop coefficient (Kc) and NDVI. Kc and Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) used to estimate ETc in Egypt. The main objective of this paper is studying the potential crop Evapotranspiration in Egypt using remote sensing techniques.

淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱时空变化规律

【目的】探究淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱的时空变化规律。【方法】以作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI)作为干旱指标,分析淮北平原1957—2018年各地区冬小麦各生育阶段CWDI年际变化趋势、空间分布、波动范围、干旱站次比和空间频率分布,探讨淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱的时空变化规律。【结果】淮北平原冬小麦整个生育期内旬需水量和旬供水量均呈先降低后上升的变化趋势,旬有效降水量变幅不大,均在10mm以内,而潜水蒸发强度在3月中旬—5月下旬显著增加,增幅达260%。阜阳、蚌埠和蒙城地区的冬小麦生长期水分供需相对平衡,而砀山、亳州和宿州地区水分供需不平衡;宿州CWDI波动性最大,蚌埠CWDI波动性最小。1957—2018年,冬小麦生育期干旱站次比呈显著上升趋势;2010年干旱范围最广、干旱程度最大。各生育阶段农业干旱程度的空间分布不均,呈由南到北递增的趋势,黄潮土区干旱等级普遍高于砂姜黑土区;轻旱发生频率高值中心由淮北平原南部向北部迁移,中旱高值区主要集中在亳州和宿州;重旱呈北高南低的特征;特旱在全生育期内较为罕见,发生频率不足5%。【结论】淮北平原1957—2018年冬小麦干旱程度呈上升趋势,水分供需不平衡,砀山和宿州地区需增加灌溉量。