Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capita...Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.展开更多
This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, bet...This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, between 1978 and2012, the net capital flow from rural areas to urban areas through the fiscal and financial systems and the price scissors of industrial and agricultural goods amounted to RMB 26. 66 trillion （by 2012price level）. Second, prior to 1994, the outflow of rural capital continued accelerating; starting from the late 1990s, the net outflow of rural capital slowed down but the overall scale remained significant. Third, the contributions by the three capital flow channels （the fiscal system, financial institutions, and the price scissors of agricultural and industrial products） to the net outflow of rural capital varied greatly across different historical periods： prior to the establishment of the market economic system （1978-1993）, most of the rural capital left the countryside in the form of price scissors of agricultural and industrial goods; during the 15 years after the establishment of the market economic system in China （1994-2007）, rural capital flowed into cities mainly through the fiscal system; with the market-oriented reform of the rural financial systems in recent years （2008-2012）, financial institutions became a major channel for the extraction of rural capital. Based on our study, we believe that in the course of more than three decades of reform and opening up, China was in the stage of extracting rural capital and that the contemporary China should enter into a new stage of development by diverting resources to the countryside to support its development. Our recommendation is that the existing fiscal and financial policies be adjusted to boost fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers, and the countryside, and to establish an inclusive, modern rural financial system.展开更多
China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face ...China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face in managing economic reforms.In particular,China faces tough challenges in balancing the benefit/risk trade-off from capital account opening and attempting to introduce more flexibility to the currency.Moreover,the lack of policy clarity highlights policy inconsistencies and ambiguities among Chinese leaders in macroeconomic management,as more often than not,government policies seem to alternate between emphasizing reform and growth.This may cast doubt on the Chinese leadership’s commitment to reform,undermine confidence in the economy and cause further capital outflows that will have significant repercussions both for China as well as for the world.展开更多
基金sponsored by the Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)2018 Emergency Management Project“Exchange Rate Market Variation,Cross-Border Capital Flow and Financial Risk Prevention”(Grant No.71850005)the NSFC Youth Program“Dynamic Estimation of Foreign Exchange Market Pressure in the Process of Capital Account Opening and Evaluation of the Central Bank’s Intervention Policy Effects”(Grant No.71803204).
文摘Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.
基金supported by the key project of the National Social Sciences Fund:Study on the Synchronized Development of Institutional Innovation for Agricultural Modernization.Industrialization,IT Application.and Urbanization(Grant No.13AZD003)the soft science project of the Ministry of Agriculture for 2014:Study on the New Price Scissors of Urban and Rural Areas(Grant No.D201415)
文摘This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, between 1978 and2012, the net capital flow from rural areas to urban areas through the fiscal and financial systems and the price scissors of industrial and agricultural goods amounted to RMB 26. 66 trillion （by 2012price level）. Second, prior to 1994, the outflow of rural capital continued accelerating; starting from the late 1990s, the net outflow of rural capital slowed down but the overall scale remained significant. Third, the contributions by the three capital flow channels （the fiscal system, financial institutions, and the price scissors of agricultural and industrial products） to the net outflow of rural capital varied greatly across different historical periods： prior to the establishment of the market economic system （1978-1993）, most of the rural capital left the countryside in the form of price scissors of agricultural and industrial goods; during the 15 years after the establishment of the market economic system in China （1994-2007）, rural capital flowed into cities mainly through the fiscal system; with the market-oriented reform of the rural financial systems in recent years （2008-2012）, financial institutions became a major channel for the extraction of rural capital. Based on our study, we believe that in the course of more than three decades of reform and opening up, China was in the stage of extracting rural capital and that the contemporary China should enter into a new stage of development by diverting resources to the countryside to support its development. Our recommendation is that the existing fiscal and financial policies be adjusted to boost fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers, and the countryside, and to establish an inclusive, modern rural financial system.
文摘China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face in managing economic reforms.In particular,China faces tough challenges in balancing the benefit/risk trade-off from capital account opening and attempting to introduce more flexibility to the currency.Moreover,the lack of policy clarity highlights policy inconsistencies and ambiguities among Chinese leaders in macroeconomic management,as more often than not,government policies seem to alternate between emphasizing reform and growth.This may cast doubt on the Chinese leadership’s commitment to reform,undermine confidence in the economy and cause further capital outflows that will have significant repercussions both for China as well as for the world.
