Exploring the impacts of major events on the systemic risk of the international energy market

This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.

Actuality and underlying mechanisms of systemic immuneinflammation index and geriatric nutritional risk index prognostic value in hepatocellular carcinoma

This editorial contains comments on the article“Correlation between preoperative systemic immune inflammation index,nutritional risk index,and prognosis of radical resection of liver cancer”in a recent issue of the World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery.It pointed out the actuality and importance of the article and focused primarily on the underlying mechanisms making the systemic immuneinflammation index(SII)and geriatric nutritional risk index(GNRI)prediction features valuable.There are few publications on both SII and GNRI together in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)and patient prognosis after radical surgery.Neutrophils release cytokines,chemokines,and enzymes,degrade extracellular matrix,reduce cell adhesion,and create conditions for tumor cell invasion.Neutrophils promote the adhesion of tumor cells to endothelial cells,through physical anchoring.That results in the migration of tumor cells.Pro-angiogenic factors from platelets enhance tumor angiogenesis to meet tumor cell supply needs.Platelets can form a protective film on the surface of tumor cells.This allows avoiding blood flow damage as well as immune system attack.It also induces the epithelial-mesenchymal transformation of tumor cells that is critical for invasiveness.High SII is also associated with macro-and microvascular invasion and increased numbers of circulating tumor cells.A high GNRI was associated with significantly better progression-free and overall survival.HCC patients are a very special population that requires increased attention.SII and GNRI have significant survival prediction value in both palliative treatment and radical surgery settings.The underlying mechanisms of their possible predictive properties lie in the field of essential cancer features.Those features provide tumor nutrition,growth,and distribution throughout the body,such as vascular invasion.On the other hand,they are tied to the possibility of patients to resist tumor progression and development of complications in both postoperative and cancer-related settings.The article is of considerable interest.It would be helpful to continue the study follow-up to 2 years and longer.External validation of the data is needed.

Correlation between preoperative systemic immune inflammation index, nutritional risk index, and prognosis of radical resection of liver cancer

BACKGROUND Radical surgery is the most commonly used treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,the surgical effect remains not ideal,and prognostic evaluation is insufficient.Furthermore,clinical intervention is rife with uncertainty and not conducive to prolonging patient survival.AIM To explore correlations between the systemic immune inflammatory index(SII)and geriatric nutritional risk index(GNRI)and HCC operation prognosis.METHODS This retrospective study included and collected follow up data from 100 HCC.Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to analyze the correlation between SII and GNRI scores and survival.SII and GNRI were calculated as follows:SII=neutrophil count×platelet count/lymphocyte count;GNRI=[1.489×albumin(g/L)+41.7×actual weight/ideal weight].We analyzed the predictive efficacy of the SII and GNRI in HCC patients using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,and the relationships between the SII,GNRI,and survival rate using Kaplan–Meier survival curves.Cox regression analysis was utilized to analyze independent risk factors influencing prognosis.RESULTS After 1 year of follow-up,24 patients died and 76 survived.The area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,specificity,and the optimal cutoff value of SII were 0.728(95%confidence interval:0.600-0.856),79.2%,63.2%,and 309.14,respectively.According to ROC curve analysis results for predicting postoperative death in HCC patients,the AUC of SII and GNRI combination was higher than that of SII or GNRI alone,and SII was higher than that of GNRI(P<0.05).The proportion of advanced differentiated tumors,tumor maximum diameter(5–10 cm,>10 cm),lymph node metastasis,and TNM stage III-IV in patients with SII>309.14 was higher than that in patients with SII≤309.14(P<0.05).The proportion of patients aged>70 years was higher in patients with GNRI≤98 than that in patients with GNRI>98(P<0.05).The 1-year survival rate of the SII>309.14 group(compared with the SII≤309.14 group)and GNRI≤98 group(compared with the GNRI>98 group)was lower(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The prognosis after radical resection of HCC is related to the SII and GNRI and poor in high SII or low GNRI patients.

Systemic immune-inflammation index combined with pediatric appendicitis score in assessing the severity and prognosis for paediatric appendicitis

BACKGROUND Pediatric appendicitis is a common cause of abdominal pain in children and is recognized as a significant surgical emergency.A prompt and accurate diagnosis is essential to prevent complications such as perforation and peritonitis.AIM To investigate the predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index(SII)combined with the pediatric appendicitis score(PAS)for the assessment of disease severity and surgical outcomes in children aged 5 years and older with appendicitis.METHODS Clinical data of 104 children diagnosed with acute appendicitis were analyzed.The participants were categorized into the acute appendicitis group and chronic appendicitis group based on disease presentation and further stratified into the good prognosis group and poor prognosis group based on prognosis.The SII and PAS were measured,and a joint model using the combined SII and PAS was constructed to predict disease severity and surgical outcomes.RESULTS Significant differences were observed in the SII and PAS parameters between the acute appendicitis group and chronic appendicitis group.Correlation analysis showed associations among the SII,PAS,and disease severity,with the combined SII and PAS model demonstrating significant predictive value for assessing disease severity[aera under the curve(AUC)=0.914]and predicting surgical outcomes(AUC=0.857)in children aged 5 years and older with appendicitis.CONCLUSION The study findings support the potential of integrating the SII with the PAS for assessing disease severity and predicting surgical outcomes in pediatric appendicitis,indicating the clinical utility of the combined SII and PAS model in guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing surgical management strategies for pediatric patients with appendicitis.

Systematic Risk Analysis of Listed Financial Institutions from the Perspective of Complex Network

Based on the complex network theory,this paper studies the systemic financial risks in China’s financial market.According to the industry classification of the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2012,the daily closing prices of 45 listed financial institutions are collected and the daily return rates of each financial institution are measured according to the logarithmic return rate calculation formula.In this paper,the risk spillover value ΔCoVaR is used to measure the contribution degree of each financial institution to systemic risk.Finally,the relationship between the risk spillover valueΔCoVaR and the node topology index of the risk transmission network is investigated by using a regression model,and some policy suggestions are put forward based on the regression results.

Tea Consumption is Associated with Increased Risk of Kidney Stones in Northern Chinese： A Cross-sectional Study

Kidney stones are a common urinary system condition that can progress to kidney disease. Previous studies on the association between tea consumption and kidney stones are inconsistent. A cross-sectional study to investigate the association between tea consumption and kidney stones was conducted from 2013 to 2014 and recruited 9,078 northern Chinese adults. A total of 8,807 participants were included in the final analysis. Participants＇ prevalence of kidney stones was 1.07%, 1.73%, and 2.25% based on their tea consumption frecluencv of never, occasionally,

Prevalence of diarrhea and associated risk factors among children under-five years of age in Eastern Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

Diarrhea remains a major cause of mortality in children under 5 years of age in Sub-Saharan countries in Africa. Risk factors for diarrhea vary by context and have important implications for developing appropriate strategies to reduce the burden of the disease. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of diarrhea and associated risk factors among children un-der 5 years of age in Kersa district, located in Eastern Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 1456 randomly selected households with at least one child under 5 years of age. A questionnaire and an observational check list were used for col-lecting information on socio-economic charac-teristics, environmental hygiene and behavioral practices, and occurrence of diarrhea among children under 5 years of age. Logistic regres-sion was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio of 95% confidence interval. The two-week prevalence of diarrhea among children under 5 years of age was 22.5% (95% CI: 20.3-24.6). Improper refuse disposal practices (OR = 2.22, 95% CI: 1.20-4.03), lack of hand washing facilities (OR = 1.92, 95%CI: 1.29-2.86), living in rural area (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.12-3.31), the presence of two or more siblings in a household (OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.33-2.28), and age of the child (OR= 2.25, 95% CI;1.5-3.36) were the major risk factors for diarrhea. This study demonstrated that diarrhea morbidity was relatively high among children under 5 years of age residing in Eastern Ethiopia. Efforts to reduce childhood diarrhea should focus on improving household sanitation, personal hygiene, and child birth spacing.

Frequency of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Case-Control Study in a Department of Internal Medicine in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: The morbidity and mortality of systemic lupus erythematosus are largely due to accelerated atherosclerosis. This is partly related to the high prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of our study was to determine the frequency of these factors in lupus patients compared to a control population in a department of internal medicine. Methods: We realized a case-control study in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus according to ACR criteria in 1997. Patients were matched by age and gender with controls subjects without autoimmune disease. We studied the frequency of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in both populations. The study was done in the department of internal medicine of Aristide Le Dantec teaching Hospital, in Senegal, during the period from August 2017 to December 2018. The statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 23.0 software and the level of significance was retained for a p-value Results: We recruited 100 subjects including 50 patients and 50 controls. The mean age was 33.5 ± 11.3 years in cases and 33.3 ± 11.3 years in controls. Dyslipidemia was significantly associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (p = 0.009). Levels of triglycerides (p Conclusion: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors including dyslipidemia and hyperuricemia were more common in patients. Similarly, renal failure was associated with lupus.

A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk,real economic activity,and monetary intervention

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.

Correlation of dietary mineral intake and malnutrition in cancer patients:A multicenter cross-sectional study

Background:To examine the correlation between the dietary mineral intake and the nutritional status of patients suffering from malignan-cies.Methods:This multi-center cross-sectional study included a total of 866 patients with malignant tumors recruited from seven hospitals throughout China.The information of socio-demographic characteristics and biochemical indicators were obtained from electronic medical records of inpatients.Dietary data were collected using a 3-day 24-hour dietary recall questionnaire.The intake of energy,dietary calcium(Ca),phosphorus(P),potassium(K),sodium(Na),magnesium(Mg),iron(Fe),zinc(Zn),selenium(Se),copper(Cu)and manganese(Mn)were estimated according to the Chinese Food Composition Tables standard edition.The weight and height of patients were measured,and the body mass index(BMI)was calculated.Nutritional risk and malnutrition were assessed by the Nutritional Screening 2002(NRS 2002)and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition(GLIM)diagnostic criteria.We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate the asso-ciations between dietary minerals and malnutrition.Results:The patients had an average age of 61.98(±15.49)years,and 40.6%(n=352)were female.Slightly less than half(44.5%)of the patients were at nutritional risk(NRS 2002≥3),and 32.7%were diagnosed with malnutrition(using the GUM criteria).Univariate analy-ses revealed that there was a statistically significant relationship between dietary mineral intake and the occurrence of nutritional risk(P<0.001).After adjusting the collinearity,we found that higher levels of P,Mn and Se intake were negatively associated with nutritional risk as-sessed by the NRS 2002 score.Moderate intake of Ca and high intake of Zn might also decrease the nutritional risk(Ca:OR,0.53,95%CI,0.32-0.88;Zn:OR,0.36,95%CI,0.19-0.68).However,no significant relationships were observed between any dietary mineral intake and malnutrition identified by the GUM criteria.Conclusions:Dietary minerals,especially P,Se,and Mn,may have a protective effect on the occurrence of nutritional risk in patients with malignant tumors.In addition,patients should maintain appropriate levels of Ca and Zn.

A Review of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE): Symptoms, Risk Factors, Treatment, and Health Related Quality of Life Issues

In this paper, we present a thorough review of one of the most life-threatening autoimmune diseases, Systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus). Symptoms, risk factors, including genetic and epidemiological factors are discussed. Treatment, life expectancies, and Health Related Quality of Life of patients with SLE will be discussed as well. Special attention will be given to Lupus Nephritis.

Population Ageing,Financial Leverage and Systemic Risk

Population ageing and high financial leverage are two common problems .faced by the worM＇s major economies. The recent financial crisis proved that the two issues could lead to systemic risk if not handled properly. Based on dynamic panel data from 1980 to 2012 in 119 countries, this paper examines the impact of population ageing on financial leverage J？om an empirical point of view and finds that there is a signOqcant inverted U-shape relationship between the two. In addition, empirical studies show that after passing the ＂turning point＂ of ageing, there will be a marked increase in the probability of financial crisis during the ＂deleveraging＂ process. It can be projected from the empirical conclusions of this paper that China will likely enter the range of a turning point between 2019 and 2028. After that, population ageing, deleveraging and asset price collapse may have a ＂resonance＂ effect to severely impact the stability of the financial system. Therefore, China should shift to more proactive macro financial regulations as quickly as possible, as dynamic and robust management of financial leverage and forward-looking control of bubbles could ensure that the financial system remain flexible enough to avoid systemic risk to the greatest extent.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Association between knowledge and risk for cardiovascular disease among older adults: A cross-sectional study in China

Objectives:This study aimed to describe cardiovascular risk and cardiovascular disease(CVD)knowledge among older adults,and further explore the association between knowledge and risk.Methods:In this cross-sectional study,we enrolled 1120 older adults who received physical examination in health centers.The participants were interviewed to obtain their behavioral risk factors related to CVD and clinical characteristics.A risk prediction chart was used to predict participants'cardiovascular risk based on clinical characteristics and behavioral risk factors.Participants'CVD knowledge was collected with a pretested knowledge questionnaire.Results:Among the 1120 participants,240(21.4%)had low cardiovascular risk,353(31.5%)had moderate cardiovascular risk,527(47%)had high and very high cardiovascular risk.The knowledge level about CVD among 0.8%of the 1120 participants was good while that of 56.9%was poor.Lower CVD knowledge level,older age,lower income,and lower educational level were the independent factors of higher cardiovascular risk level.Conclusions:This study highlights the need to reduce the cardiovascular risk among older adults.CVD knowledge should be considered when developing health interventions.

Systemic Risk of Conventional and Islamic Banks: Comparison with Graphical Network Models

The main aim of this paper is to compare the stability, in terms of systemic risk, of conventional and Islamic banking systems. To this aim, we propose correlation network models for stock market returns based on graphical Gaussian distributions, which allows us to capture the contagion effects that move along countries. We also consider Bayesian graphical models, to account for model uncertainty in the measurement of financial systems interconnectedness. Our proposed model is applied to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region banking sector, characterized by the presence of both conventional and Islamic banks, for the period from 2007 to the beginning of 2014. Our empirical findings show that there are differences in the systemic risk and stability of the two banking systems during crisis times. In addition, the differences are subject to country specific effects that are amplified during crisis period.

Credit Default Swaps （CDSs） and Systemic Risks

The use of credit default swaps （CDSs） has become increasingly popular over time. Between 2002 and 2007, gross notional amounts outstanding grew from below S2 trillion to nearly S60 trillion. The recent crisis has revealed several shortcomings in CDS market practices and structure. In addition, management of counterparty risk has proved insufficient, as has in some instances the settlement of contracts following a credit event. However, past problems should not distract from the potential benefits of these instruments. In particular, CDSs help complete markets, as they provide an effective means to hedge and trade credit risk. CDSs allow financial institutions to better manage their exposures, and investors benefit from an enhanced investment universe. The purpose of this paper is to present a complete and practical exposition of the CDS market and to explore how the development of the CDS market has played an important role in the credit risk markets. Currently, the CDS market is transforming into a more stable system. Various measures are being put in place to help enhance market transparency and mitigate operational and systemic risk. In particular, central counterparties have started to operate, which will eventually lead to an improved management of individual as well as system-wide risks.

Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Equations versus Vascular Ultrasound in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in a Black African Population

Introduction: Cardiovascular risk is increased in systemic lupus erythematosus. Cardiovascular events are the first cause of death in lupus after five years duration. Prevention of cardiovascular events needs a good evaluation of the risk. In this work, we tried to evaluate the performance of conventional and adjusted forms of cardiovascular risk equations to predict high risk in lupus patients, in comparison with carotid ultrasound. Method: We realized a cross-sectional study during the period from 24 August 2017 to 22 November 2018. Consenting patient meeting the 1997 American college of Rheumatology criteria of systemic lupus erythematosus were recruited. The clinical characteristics and the treatment data were informed. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were also investigated, and the assessment of cardiovascular risk was performed by Framingham and SCORE equations and their modified forms (multiplication by a factor of 1.5). Carotid ultrasound was used to detect atherosclerosis by measuring intima media thickness and searching for carotid plaques. In last, we compared cardiovascular risk levels by equations to results of carotid ultrasound. Statistical analysis and data collection were performed using SPSS 23.0 software. Results: Forty-nine patients with a sex ratio of 0.13 and a mean age of 33.5 (±11.3) years were enrolled. More than half of patients had dyslipidemia. More than 80% of the population were at low cardiovascular risk according to the equations. However, 16% of cases had carotid atherosclerosis. Between 50% and 100% of patients having atherosclerosis were considered at low or moderate risk by equations. The best sensitivity to predict cardiovascular risk was given by modified Framingham (50%). Conclusion: In our study, conventional and modified risk equations had a bad performance to predict cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus.

Research on Systemic Risk Spillover Effect of Chinese Listed Commercial Banks——Based on Quantile CoVaR Model

The banking industry plays an important role in China's financial market, and the systemic risk of the banking industry has astrong risk spillover effect. This paper measures the systemic risk spillover effect of Chinese listed commercial banks byconstructing the quantile CoVaR model. The study concluded that when an extreme risk event occurs, the overall risk spillovereffect of a single bank on the banking system is greater than the risk spillover effect of the banking system on a single bank, thevalue of VaR is smaller than the actual risk value when measuring the risk value of commercial banks and the CoVaR model ismore accurate in measuring systemic risk.

Current Status and Risk Factors of Kinesiophobia in Patients with Temporomandibular Disorders in Tianjin,China:a Cross-Sectional Study

Objective:To investigate the current status of kinesiophobia in patients with temporomandibular disorders(TMD)and analyze its risk factors.Methods:The Tampa Scale for kinesiophobia for patients with Temporomandibular Disorders(TSK-TMD),Numerical Rating Scale(NRS),Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS),General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES),Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire(SCSQ),and Social Support Rating Scale(SSRS)were adopted to measure patient's kinesiophobia,pain intensity,anxiety,depression,self-efficacy,coping styles and social support.Multiple linear regression was used to analyze the risk factors of kinesiophobia in patients with TMD.Results:A total of 307 participants were included in the present study.The average score of patients with kinesiophobia was(34.37±6.96)points.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that pain duration,worst pain intensity,mouth opening limitation,joint noise,joint trauma,self-efficacy,depression,negative coping style,support utilization and education level are independent risk factors for kinesiophobia.Conclusion:Patients with TMD have higher levels of kinesiophobia and poor recognition of the disease.Longer pain duration,pain intensity,mouth opening limitation,joint noise,joint trauma,lower self-efficacy,depression,negative coping style,lower support utilization and lower educational level can be used to predict the degree of kinesiophobia.

Systemic Risk in Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: A Graph Theory Analysis

This paper sets out to explore the contagion of systemic risk in Chinese commodity futures market based on specific tools of the graph-theory.More precisely,we use minimum spanning trees as a way to identify the most probable path for the transmission of prices shocks.In the sample of 30 kinds of Chinese commodity futures,we construct the MST and obtain the most probable and the shortest path for the transmission of a prices shock.We find that metal futures play an important role in commodity futures market and copper stands at the heart of the system(The core position of the system is very important for the transmission of system risk).And our results also reveal that when the risk occurs,the MST structure becomes smaller,leading to the most effective transmission path of risk becomes shorter.