Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Precipitation and anthropogenic activities regulate the changes of NDVI in Zhegucuo Valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau

Whether climate change or anthropogenic activities play a more pivotal role in regulating vegetation growth on the Tibetan Plateau is still controversial.A better understanding on grassland changes at a fine scale may provide important guidance for local government policy and grassland management.Using two of the most reliable satellite NDVI products(MODIS NDVI and SPOT NDVI),we evaluated the dynamic of grasslands in the Zhegucuo valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2020,and analyzed its driving factors and relative influences of climate change and anthropogenic activities.Here,the key indicators of climate change were assumed to be precipitation and temperature.The main results were:(1)the grassland NDVI in Zhegucuo valley did not reflect a significant temporal change during the last 21 years.The variation of precipitation during the early growing season(GSP)resembled that of NDVI,and the GSP was positively correlated with NDVI.At the pixel level,the partial correlation analysis showed that 37.79%of the pixels depicted a positive relationship between GSP and NDVI,while 11.32%of the pixels showed a negative relationship between temperature during the early growing season(GST)and NDVI.(2)In view of the spatial distribution,the areas mainly controlled by GSP were generally distributed in the southern part,while those affected by GST stood in the eastern part,mainly around the Zhegucuo lake where most population in Cuomei County settled down.(3)Decreasing NDVI trends were mainly occurred in alpine steppe at lower elevations rather than alpine meadow at higher elevations.(4)The residual trend(RESTREND)analysis further indicated that the anthropogenic activities played a more pivotal role in regulating the annual changes of NDVI rather than climate factors in this area.Future studies should pay more attention on climate extremes rather than the simple temporal trends.Also,the influence of human activities on alpine grassland needs to be accessed and fully considered in future sustainable management.

Assessment of Wet Season Precipitation in the Central United States by the Regional Climate Simulation of the WRFG Member in NARCCAP and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Circulation Biases

Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.

Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with API and soil moisture, it will be possible to determine thresholds, thus enabling anticipation of landslide occurrences.

The clutch size,incubation behavior of Reeves’s Pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) and their responses to ambient temperature and precipitation

Weather conditions play a pivotal role in embryo development and parental incubation costs,potentially impacting the clutch size and incubation behavior of birds.Understanding these effects is crucial for bird conservation.Reeves’ s Pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) is a threatened species endemic to China,which is characterized by female-only incubation.However,there is a lack of information regarding the impact of weather conditions on clutch size and incubation behavior in this species.Using satellite tracking,we tracked 27 wild female Reeves’ s Pheasants from 2020 to 2023 in Hubei Province,China.We explored their clutch size and incubation behavior,as well as their responses to ambient temperature and precipitation.Clutch size averaged 7.75 ±1.36,had an association with average ambient temperature and average daily precipitation during the egglaying period,and was potentially linked to female breeding attempts.Throughout the incubation period,females took an average of 0.73 ±0.46 recesses every 24 h,with an average recess duration of 100.80 ±73.37 min and an average nest attendance of 92.98 ±5.27%.They showed a unimodal recess pattern in which nest departures peaked primarily between 13:00 and 16:00.Furthermore,females rarely left nests when daily precipitation was high.Recess duration and nest attendance were influenced by the interaction between daily mean ambient temperature and daily precipitation,as well as day of incubation.Additionally,there was a positive correlation between clutch size and recess duration.These results contribute valuable insights into the lifehistory features of this endangered species.

Removal Effect of Precipitation on Atmospheric Particulate Matter (PM_(2.5) ) in Bengbu City

Based on the monitoring data of PM_(2.5) concentration in Bengbu Environmental Monitoring Station and precipitation observation data of Bengbu National Meteorological Observation Station from 2016 to 2019, the influence of precipitation on PM_(2.5) mass concentration in Bengbu City was analyzed. The results show that precipitation had a washing and removal effect on PM_(2.5) in the air, and the removal effect was related to precipitation level, precipitation intensity, precipitation duration and PM_(2.5) concentration. The removal effect of precipitation on PM_(2.5) increased with the increase of precipitation level, and the seasonal difference was obvious. Precipitation intensity was positively correlated with the removal effect of PM_(2.5) , but the average removal rate began to decline when precipitation intensity exceeded 10 mm. With the increase of precipitation intensity, the proportion of positive removal showed an overall upward trend, but there was a low-value area as precipitation intensity was 3-10 mm. Precipitation duration was also positively correlated with the removal effect of PM_(2.5) , and there was a low-value area when precipitation duration was 10-15 h. When PM_(2.5) concentration was low before the precipitation process began, the removal effect was not good, and the average removal rate was negative. As PM_(2.5) concentration was high before the precipitation process started, the removal effect was obvious.

Cu/Ce负载对赤泥脱除中低温烟气中NO的促进作用

本研究对酸洗赤泥催化剂进行Cu、Ce、Cu/Ce浸渍负载,并研究了金属改性赤泥对烟气中NOx的催化转化性能。研究结果表明,Cu负载催化剂中的Cu+与Cu^(2+),有效促进了赤泥对低温烟气(200–300℃)中的NO转化率,Cu的负载量达到6%时,赤泥的最高NO转化率达到了90.7%;而Ce负载催化剂中的Ce^(3+)与Ce^(4+),有效促进了赤泥对中温烟气(200–400℃)中的NO转化率,Ce的负载量达到8%时,赤泥的最高NO转化率达到了94.0%;Cu/Ce负载催化剂表现出比单金属负载催化剂更好的低温NO转化率,最佳的负载Cu:Ce比例为1∶1,双金属负载催化剂表现出比Cu负载催化剂更好的中温(300–400℃)中的NO转化率,最高达到了95.5%。其原因是,在Cu/Ce协同作用下,Cu+以及Cu^(2+)的还原过程分别从229、302℃降至201以及247℃,同时使发生Fe2O3→FeO的还原过程的温度降低,促使ACRM-Cu1Ce1具有更强的低温氧化还原能力,同时,双金属负载使催化剂具有更高的弱酸性峰,也使催化剂的强、弱酸性峰都向低温偏移,并使负载后的赤泥具有了较高的Fe离子平均氧化态以及较高的Cu+含量,促进了赤泥催化剂对低温NO的转化率。

Cu含量以及Cu/Mg比对Al-Si-Cu-Mg合金组织和力学性能的影响

研究了Cu含量和Cu/Mg比对Al-Si-Cu-Mg合金组织和力学性能的影响。结果表明Al-Si-Cu-Mg合金凝固组织是否形成Mg_(2)Si、Q-Al_(5)Cu_(2)Mg_(8)Si_(6)以及θ-Al_(2)Cu取决于Cu含量以及Cu/Mg比。当Cu/Mg比相对低时形成Mg_(2)Si中间相,而Cu/Mg比高时则倾向于生成Q-Al_(5)Cu_(2)Mg_(8)Si_(6)和θ-Al_(2)Cu相。当Cu/Mg比相同时,高Cu含量和高Mg含量都会促进Q相θ相的形成。通过观察T6热处理后的组织发现Cu含量以及Cu/Mg比控制了初生相的溶解以及析出相的形成,从而影响合金的强度与韧性。通过控制Cu含量及Cu/Mg比使Al-9Si-2Cu-0.5Mg合金中析出较少数量的初生相,再通过热处理析出大量的Q′强化相,使合金具有较高的强度和相对适中的伸长率。

Cu(Ⅱ)催化NaOCl氧化碘帕醇的效果和过程解析

本文研究Cu(Ⅱ)催化NaOCl氧化非离子型碘代X射线造影剂—碘帕醇(IPM),对IPM降解过程中Cu的回收和形态进行解析,考察Cu(Ⅱ)、NaOCl浓度和卤素离子对IPM降解效果及碘代消毒副产物-碘仿的生成影响;采用XRD、XPS分析Cu(Ⅱ)反应后的产物晶型和形态变化,结合循环伏安曲线和计时电流表征Cu(Ⅲ)的生成,推测Cu(Ⅱ)催化NaOCl氧化IPM的机理.利用HPLC/MS/MS分析中间产物,推测IPM的降解路径.结果表明,与Co(Ⅱ)、Fe(Ⅱ)、Mn(Ⅱ)相比,Cu(Ⅱ)显著提高了NaOCl的分解率和IPM的氧化效果,25℃、pH=6.71,500r/min,NaOCl和Cu(Ⅱ)浓度分别为0.5和0.05mmol/L,60min,8.0mg/L IPM的降解率达到77.51%;HO·、活性氯自由基和Cu(Ⅲ)都有助于Cu(Ⅱ)/NaOCl氧化IPM,且Cu(Ⅲ)的贡献随pH值升高而增大.NaOCl浓度在0.1~2.5mmol/L范围增加,IPM降解率增加;Cu(Ⅱ)浓度在0.005~0.5mmol/L存在适宜值.HPLC/MS/MS共检测出13种产物,IPM的降解途径主要包括:侧链酰胺键水解和氧化,碘取代、羟基加成.Cl^(−)、Br^(−)和I^(−)(1~5mmol/L)在影响IPM氧化效果的同时,Br^(-)显著促进了CHI_(3)的生成,生成量达到48.28μg/L.

CTAB改性Cu-BTC材料的合成及其吸附分离二甲苯异构体的性能

通过水热法合成Cu-BTC晶体的过程中添加十六烷基三甲基溴化铵(CTAB),通过调节CTAB的添加量对吸附材料的形貌和孔结构进行改性,改性后的Cu-BTC材料与原Cu-BTC相比,其对对二甲苯(PX)的静态吸附量明显提高,且高于间二甲苯(MX)和邻二甲苯(OX),从而提高了异构体的吸附选择性。研究了二甲苯异构体在Cu-BTC-CTAB材料上的静态吸附性能和吸附动力学性能。在298K、318K和338K温度下进行了一系列二甲苯有机蒸气吸附平衡实验,得到了静态吸附速率曲线和吸附等温线。改性材料中CTAB添加量为0.08%的Cu-BTC-CTAB样品对PX的吸附量和选择性最优。动力学研究表明,二甲苯异构体在Cu-BTC-CTAB上的吸附过程可以用一级动力学模型来描述。

g-C_(3)N_(4)锚定Cu(Ⅰ)高选择性催化CCl_(4)合成2,4,4,4-四氯丁腈

以尿素和Cu(NO_(3))_(2)·3H_(2)O为前体,采用热缩合法制备了不同Cu负载量的氮化碳(g-C_(3)N_(4))基催化剂Cu/CNn(n=1、2、3),采用X射线衍射仪、傅里叶变换红外光谱、X射线光电子能谱、比表面积测试、扫描电子显微镜及透射电子显微镜对其结构和形貌进行了表征,比较了不同Cu负载量的Cu/CNn催化CCl_(4)与丙烯腈(AN)的原子转移自由基加成(ATRA)反应合成2,4,4,4-四氯丁腈(TBN)的催化性能。结果表明,Cu/CN1呈现优异的催化性能,以乙腈(MeCN)为溶剂,n(Cu/CN1)∶n(AN)=1∶1000,120℃反应12h,TBN的选择性可达96.5%,产率可达83.3%,Cu/CN作为多相催化剂,经过滤处理便可重复利用,使用7次其催化活性仍能稳定保持。基于相关的实验结果,提出了Cu/CN催化CCl_(4)和AN的ATRA反应的氧化-还原循环机理。实验结果揭示了Cu与g-C_(3)N_(4)载体的协同作用机制,为CCl_(4)深加工开发高效的催化体系提供了新的思路。

络合剂对固相法Cu/ZnO/In_(2)O_(3)催化剂的CO_(2)加氢制甲醇反应性能的影响

为了促进催化剂中Cu物种的分散,在金属硝酸盐中分别加入草酸、甲酸和柠檬酸,采用固态研磨合成Cu/ZnO/In_(2)O_(3)催化剂.结果表明:草酸的加入对Cu的分散效果最好,在280℃,2 MPa,3.6 L·gcat^(-1)·h^(-1),V(H2)∶V(CO_(2))=3∶1时,甲醇收率最高,达到2.1 mmol·gcat^(-1)·h^(-1).但甲酸在高温下会分解为CO_(2)和H_(2),导致制备的CuO/ZnO/In_(2)O_(3)催化剂部分还原,随后此催化剂在H_(2)预处理后被过度还原,形成Cu_(3)In_(7)合金相,导致甲醇产率降低.

晶粒尺寸对界面含Cr-O-C防黏层Cu/Ni复合体拉伸性能的影响

通过分子动力学方法研究含Cr-O-C防黏层的具有不同晶粒尺寸的Cu/Ni复合体的拉伸变形。结果表明:当Cu/Ni复合体的晶粒尺寸大于12 nm时,不论界面不含Cr、O和C原子或含有定量Cr、O和C原子,复合体的屈服强度随着晶粒尺寸的减小呈现增大趋势,符合细晶强化规律,晶粒塑性变形主要受晶体内部的位错滑移控制,最大应力增加9.52%;当晶粒尺寸小于12 nm时,由于晶界所占比例的增加,拉伸过程的塑性变形更多受晶界变形控制,屈服强度下降。Cr-O-C界面弱化了Cu/Ni复合体的强度,随着界面上Cr、O和C原子数量的增加,Cu/Ni复合体的抗拉强度随之降低,最大应力下降56.40%,Cu/Ni复合体内部的位错数量也随之降低,转移到Ni表面的Cu原子数量随之减少。

以创新型人才培养为导向的探究型综合化学实验设计——以“空心CuS微米球的合成及光催化性能研究”为例

化学学科的科技创新是支撑我国建设科技强国的重要力量,因此亟需培养高质量化学类创新型人才以服务国家战略需求。化学前沿领域的新成果、新方法、新技术不断涌现,将前沿科研成果合理地融入到综合化学实验教学中,能够深化教学内容,促进学生学术创新、质疑思辨和团队协作等能力的提升。通过以空心CuS微米球的合成及光催化性能研究为例,探究了如何以创新型人才培养为导向对探究型综合化学实验进行设计,以有效发挥综合化学实验课程培养创新型科学研究人才的功效。

不锈钢表面Al/Cu涂层制备与第一性原理计算

为了研究Al/Cu涂层中金属间化合物的生成顺序和形成机理,在304不锈钢基体表面制备了Al/Cu涂层。对试样进行热处理使得Al/Cu涂层原位反应生成金属间化合物,随后测试了涂层的高温抗氧化性能。采用第一性原理计算Al-Cu金属间化合物的焓、熵、吉布斯自由能和热容等数据。将热力学和扩散动力学相结合,提出有效生成自由能模型来预测化合物在Al/Cu界面的生成顺序。结果表明:Al/Cu涂层中首先形成Al_(2)Cu相,在Al/Cu界面处出现了AlCu相,加热时间增加至20 h后出现了富Cu的Al_(4)Cu_(9)相。由第一性原理计算得出,Al-Cu金属间化合物的形成顺序为Al_(2)Cu→AlCu→Al_(4)Cu_(9),与实验结果一致。此外,氧化实验结果表明,涂层具有良好高温抗氧化性能。

流变压铸Al-15Cu合金的组织与力学性能

Al-Cu合金因其高的强度、硬度及高温力学性能,在交通领域具有重要应用。为探明高Cu含量铝合金力学性能特点,本文采用流变压铸成形Al-15Cu合金,研究浇注温度等参数对该合金流变压铸件力学性能的影响。结果表明,随着浇注温度的增加,初生α-Al晶粒平均等效直径由55μm降低到30μm,而平均形状系数随浇注温度变化不明显;施加电磁搅拌对初生α-Al晶粒有一定的细化作用。Al-15Cu合金流变压铸件的强度和塑性随浇注温度先增加后降低。浇注温度为610℃和施加电磁搅拌条件下的拉伸试样密度、抗拉强度和伸长率最高,分别为2.961 g/cm~3、260 MPa和2%。在300℃拉伸条件下,流变铸件性能随浇注温度变化的规律与常温时一致,抗拉强度和伸长率分别可达118 MPa和8%。

超临界汽轮机低压转子0Cr17Ni4Cu4Nb钢叶片断裂原因

某超临界汽轮机低压转子次末级0Cr17Ni4Cu4Nb钢叶片发生断裂。采用宏观观察、化学成分分析、扫描电镜及能谱分析、金相检验、硬度测试等方法分析了叶片断裂的原因。结果表明:在灵活性运行工况下,机组承受的载荷频繁发生变化,造成低压缸进汽量和汽流频繁大幅波动,导致长叶型的次末级叶片在运行过程中发生颤振;次末级叶片的叶根尺寸与叶根槽不匹配,使叶根松动、叶片晃动,加剧了叶片的颤振;在两种因素共同作用下,机组出汽侧近叶根的应力集中区域萌生了裂纹,在叶片颤振产生的交变应力作用下,裂纹以疲劳的形式不断扩展,最终导致叶片整体断裂。

Cu-4Ag合金微细丝拉拔极限预测模型

采用三室真空冷型竖引连铸设备制备了Cu-4Ag合金铸态杆坯,并利用连续冷拉拔变形得到了不同线径的Cu-4Ag合金微细丝,通过拉拔实验获取了不同线径下材料的屈服强度和抗拉强度;基于线径与强度的关系,构建了微细丝拉拔极限预测模型。结果表明,在拉拔过程中,Cu-4Ag合金微细丝的线径与抗拉强度密切相关,具有明显的尺寸效应;修正后的拉拔极限模型能够较为准确地预测不同线径的Cu-4Ag合金微细丝能够达到的拉拔极限。将拉拔极限模型产出的数据导入MATLAB中,构建了三维曲面模型,可以更为直观地分析材料的拉拔极限。

功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂对Cu^(2+)的吸附研究

该研究制备了功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂(PNO),旨在去除废水中Cu^(2+);基于静态和动态吸附实验,研究了PNO对废水中Cu^(2+)的吸附效果。结果表明:PNO对Cu^(2+)的最佳吸附条件为吸附剂投加量100 mg、吸附时间30 min、pH值4.0~5.9、温度298 K、转速150 r/min,最大吸附量为51.55 mg/g。PNO对Cu^(2+)的吸附过程符合Langmuir、Freundlich等温吸附模型和准二级动力学模型。动态吸附量随柱高增加、流速降低和进水Cu^(2+)浓度增加而增大。使用Thomas和Bohart-Adams模型拟合,相关系数R^(2)均大于0.92,预测值与实验值相符。经过5次静态吸附-解吸和3次动态循环再生后,PNO对Cu^(2+)的去除率仍达到第一次循环的96%以上,去除效果和再生性能良好。PNO对含铜废水高效处理具有广泛的应用前景。

Fe含量对粉末冶金Cu-Fe合金显微组织与性能的影响

研究Fe含量对粉末冶金Cu-Fe合金显微组织及性能的影响。采用电火花等离子烧结、冷轧以及时效处理工艺制备4种不同铁含量(5%、10%、20%和40%,质量分数)的Cu-Fe合金。研究结果表明,随着Fe含量从5%(质量分数)增加到40%(质量分数),Fe相由离散球形分布演变为连续交错分布,Fe相尺寸从0.29μm增加到1.20μm;时效态的Cu-Fe合金的屈服强度从411.5 MPa提高到788.8 MPa,电导率从62.5%(IACS)降低到42.0%(IACS)。在以上结果的基础上,提出一种混合法则计算Cu基体、初级Fe相和次级Fe相对屈服强度的贡献,可较好地预测Fe含量高于10%(质量分数)合金的力学性能。