Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Us...Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.展开更多
For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system, a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects. In this paper, the cubic splin...For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system, a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects. In this paper, the cubic spline interpolation function is applied as the trial solution. By using a weighted residual approach, the discretized motion equations for the new finite element model are developed. The model is calculated with the computation program complier by Matlab. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the numerical schemes. The results of numerical simulation are stable and valid, and consistent with the mechanical properties of the cable. The model can be applied to kinematics analysis and the design of ocean cable, such as mooring lines, towing, and ROV umbilical cables.展开更多
Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the c...Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model（CBM） was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.展开更多
In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubi...In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.展开更多
针对锂电池低荷电状态时输出变化大和模型参数辨识困难问题,提出一种基于三次样条插值法的建模与参数辨识方法。首先建立了含SOC动态的三阶3RC-3D等效电路模型,分析了低SOC时应用最小二乘法对不同模型参数进行辨识产生的误差。在此基础...针对锂电池低荷电状态时输出变化大和模型参数辨识困难问题,提出一种基于三次样条插值法的建模与参数辨识方法。首先建立了含SOC动态的三阶3RC-3D等效电路模型,分析了低SOC时应用最小二乘法对不同模型参数进行辨识产生的误差。在此基础上,结合三次样条插值法的拟合特性和合适的边界条件,构造了三次样条插值函数,在SOC≤10%区间进行了模型各参数辨识,并拟合出了模型参数变化曲线。最后,将辨识后的模型参数曲线与混合脉冲功率特性HPPC(Hybrid Pulse Power Characterization)试验的实际测量值进行了对比。从比较结果看,本文所提的辨识方法减小了参数辨识误差,提高了模型精度,验证了在SOC≤10%区间应用三次样条插值法进行锂电池模型参数辨识的有效性。仿真结果表明,基于三次样条插值辨识方法建立的三阶3RC-3D等效电路模型能够高精度地跟踪锂电池输出外特性。展开更多
The cubic spline integration scheme has been successfully applied for the first time to obtain solutions for the two-dimensional shallow water wave and transport equations. Its principal advantages are its high accura...The cubic spline integration scheme has been successfully applied for the first time to obtain solutions for the two-dimensional shallow water wave and transport equations. Its principal advantages are its high accuracy, low computational cost, and flexibility of application. The study quantitatively analyzed and predicted the variation in time and space of a solid pollutant in water environment. The infiltration, adsorption, solubility, advection, and diffusion related factors at different spatial and temporal scales were taken into consideration in the model. Experiments were conducted in this study to examine the capabilities of the cubic spline scheme, The correspondence between the numerical results and the experimental data was fair, The results were also compared with the numerical results obtained using finite difference schemes with good agreement.展开更多
基金This work has been supported by the National 863 Key Project Grant No. 2008AA042901, National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No.70631003 and No.90718037, Foundation of Hefei University of Technology Grant No. 2010HGXJ0083.
文摘Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China(Grant No.2010CDB10804)
文摘For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system, a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects. In this paper, the cubic spline interpolation function is applied as the trial solution. By using a weighted residual approach, the discretized motion equations for the new finite element model are developed. The model is calculated with the computation program complier by Matlab. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the numerical schemes. The results of numerical simulation are stable and valid, and consistent with the mechanical properties of the cable. The model can be applied to kinematics analysis and the design of ocean cable, such as mooring lines, towing, and ROV umbilical cables.
基金the financial support of the Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects of China (Grant No. 2011ZX05010-002)the Important Science and Technology Specific Projects of Petro China (Grant No. 2014E-3203)
文摘Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model（CBM） was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.
文摘In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.
文摘针对锂电池低荷电状态时输出变化大和模型参数辨识困难问题,提出一种基于三次样条插值法的建模与参数辨识方法。首先建立了含SOC动态的三阶3RC-3D等效电路模型,分析了低SOC时应用最小二乘法对不同模型参数进行辨识产生的误差。在此基础上,结合三次样条插值法的拟合特性和合适的边界条件,构造了三次样条插值函数,在SOC≤10%区间进行了模型各参数辨识,并拟合出了模型参数变化曲线。最后,将辨识后的模型参数曲线与混合脉冲功率特性HPPC(Hybrid Pulse Power Characterization)试验的实际测量值进行了对比。从比较结果看,本文所提的辨识方法减小了参数辨识误差,提高了模型精度,验证了在SOC≤10%区间应用三次样条插值法进行锂电池模型参数辨识的有效性。仿真结果表明,基于三次样条插值辨识方法建立的三阶3RC-3D等效电路模型能够高精度地跟踪锂电池输出外特性。
文摘The cubic spline integration scheme has been successfully applied for the first time to obtain solutions for the two-dimensional shallow water wave and transport equations. Its principal advantages are its high accuracy, low computational cost, and flexibility of application. The study quantitatively analyzed and predicted the variation in time and space of a solid pollutant in water environment. The infiltration, adsorption, solubility, advection, and diffusion related factors at different spatial and temporal scales were taken into consideration in the model. Experiments were conducted in this study to examine the capabilities of the cubic spline scheme, The correspondence between the numerical results and the experimental data was fair, The results were also compared with the numerical results obtained using finite difference schemes with good agreement.
