Demographic transitions occur at different times and speed across different economies, and age structures consequently differ across regions. Using a solvable four-phase model, we show that economies with a higher pro...Demographic transitions occur at different times and speed across different economies, and age structures consequently differ across regions. Using a solvable four-phase model, we show that economies with a higher proportion of working-age force and a lower dependency ratio tend to have higher savings rates. Because the demographic ＂ center of gravity＂for investment demand falls at a younger point in the age distribution than that of savings supply, countries with a younger age-distribution like those described above generate national savings in excess of domestic investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Numerical simulation supports this hypothesis. But the relative youth or age of a country＇s population reflects temporary demographic trends which change continuously. Therefore, while trade imbalances caused by demographic factors are structural and long-term, they are not permanent, and may be reversed by changes in age structure.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to create a comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign trade in the global world, the process of divergence of exports and imports under the influence political and economic chan...The purpose of this paper is to create a comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign trade in the global world, the process of divergence of exports and imports under the influence political and economic changes in Europe and the economic crisis in the world. Data from world public databases are summarized to a clear and understandable form. We analyzed the share of imports and exports （due to the global trade is presented） and its potential impact on the development of current account balance （CAB） for the United States of America （USA）, the European Union （EU）, and China. Correlation coefficient timeline for the last decade of CAB and world trade is also presented to show the influence of trade flow in the world and the EU with respect to current account. The work emphasizes the clear and understandable processing of the required data, which are then formulated to make arguments and then used to make predictions of further development of world trade. From summarized data, future crisis can be predicted and impacts can be evaluated.展开更多
This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from...This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.展开更多
China＇s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditorp...China＇s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditorposition of 30 percent of GDP in 2008. We test the importance of the growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China＇s net foreign asset position. Our empirical results highlight the sharp fall in the young-age dependence as one key driver behind China ＇s puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that China will unlikely turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades.展开更多
基金This research is supported by： National Social Science Foundation ＂ Study on China＇s imbalanced foreign trade from the perspective of intra-product specialization＂ （10BJY079）.
文摘Demographic transitions occur at different times and speed across different economies, and age structures consequently differ across regions. Using a solvable four-phase model, we show that economies with a higher proportion of working-age force and a lower dependency ratio tend to have higher savings rates. Because the demographic ＂ center of gravity＂for investment demand falls at a younger point in the age distribution than that of savings supply, countries with a younger age-distribution like those described above generate national savings in excess of domestic investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Numerical simulation supports this hypothesis. But the relative youth or age of a country＇s population reflects temporary demographic trends which change continuously. Therefore, while trade imbalances caused by demographic factors are structural and long-term, they are not permanent, and may be reversed by changes in age structure.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to create a comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign trade in the global world, the process of divergence of exports and imports under the influence political and economic changes in Europe and the economic crisis in the world. Data from world public databases are summarized to a clear and understandable form. We analyzed the share of imports and exports （due to the global trade is presented） and its potential impact on the development of current account balance （CAB） for the United States of America （USA）, the European Union （EU）, and China. Correlation coefficient timeline for the last decade of CAB and world trade is also presented to show the influence of trade flow in the world and the EU with respect to current account. The work emphasizes the clear and understandable processing of the required data, which are then formulated to make arguments and then used to make predictions of further development of world trade. From summarized data, future crisis can be predicted and impacts can be evaluated.
文摘This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.
文摘China＇s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditorposition of 30 percent of GDP in 2008. We test the importance of the growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China＇s net foreign asset position. Our empirical results highlight the sharp fall in the young-age dependence as one key driver behind China ＇s puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that China will unlikely turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades.
