Computational Experiments for Complex Social Systems:Experiment Design and Generative Explanation

Powered by advanced information technology,more and more complex systems are exhibiting characteristics of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS).In this context,computational experiments method has emerged as a novel approach for the design,analysis,management,control,and integration of CPSS,which can realize the causal analysis of complex systems by means of“algorithmization”of“counterfactuals”.However,because CPSS involve human and social factors(e.g.,autonomy,initiative,and sociality),it is difficult for traditional design of experiment(DOE)methods to achieve the generative explanation of system emergence.To address this challenge,this paper proposes an integrated approach to the design of computational experiments,incorporating three key modules:1)Descriptive module:Determining the influencing factors and response variables of the system by means of the modeling of an artificial society;2)Interpretative module:Selecting factorial experimental design solution to identify the relationship between influencing factors and macro phenomena;3)Predictive module:Building a meta-model that is equivalent to artificial society to explore its operating laws.Finally,a case study of crowd-sourcing platforms is presented to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the proposed approach,which can reveal the social impact of algorithmic behavior on“rider race”.

Residual-Based False Data Injection Attacks Against Multi-Sensor Estimation Systems

This paper investigates the security issue of multisensor remote estimation systems.An optimal stealthy false data injection(FDI)attack scheme based on historical and current residuals,which only tampers with the measurement residuals of partial sensors due to limited attack resources,is proposed to maximally degrade system estimation performance.The attack stealthiness condition is given,and then the estimation error covariance in compromised state is derived to quantify the system performance under attack.The optimal attack strategy is obtained by solving several convex optimization problems which maximize the trace of the compromised estimation error covariance subject to the stealthiness condition.Moreover,due to the constraint of attack resources,the selection principle of the attacked sensor is provided to determine which sensor is attacked so as to hold the most impact on system performance.Finally,simulation results are presented to verify the theoretical analysis.

Cyber-physical-social System in Intelligent Transportation

A cyber-physical system(CPS) is composed of a physical system and its corresponding cyber systems that are tightly fused at all scales and levels.CPS is helpful to improve the controllability,efficiency and reliability of a physical system,such as vehicle collision avoidance and zero-net energy buildings systems.It has become a hot R&D and practical area from US to EU and other countries.In fact,most of physical systems and their cyber systems are designed,built and used by human beings in the social and natural environments.So,social systems must be of the same importance as their CPSs.The indivisible cyber,physical and social parts constitute the cyber-physical-social system(CPSS),a typical complex system and it’s a challengeable problem to control and manage it under traditional theories and methods.An artificial systems,computational experiments and parallel execution(ACP) methodology is introduced based on which data-driven models are applied to social system.Artificial systems,i.e.,cyber systems,are applied for the equivalent description of physical-social system(PSS).Computational experiments are applied for control plan validation.And parallel execution finally realizes the stepwise control and management of CPSS.Finally,a CPSS-based intelligent transportation system(ITS) is discussed as a case study,and its architecture,three parts,and application are described in detail.

Decentralized Event-Triggered Average Consensus for Multi-Agent Systems in CPSs with Communication Constraints

The paper investigates decentralized event-triggered average consensus problem for multi-agent systems in cyberphysical systems(CPSs) with communication constraints.To reduce communication burden and improve the communication efficiency of multi-agent systems in CPSs,event-trigger is distributed at subsystem/agent level.A multi-agent system is then modeled as a reduced dimension hybrid system by taking into account decentralized event-triggered mechanism,communication delays and data dropouts within one framework.Some sufflcient conditions for average consensus of each agent and an upper bound of communication delay and maximal allowable number of successive data dropouts(MANSD) are obtained,which can conveniently provide the relationship between the triggering parameters,communication constraints and the system stability.Specially,the quantitative relationship between the triggering parameters,MANSD and the system stability is derived.Finally,simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Cyber-Physical-Social System Between a Humanoid Robot and a Virtual Human Through a Shared Platform for Adaptive Agent Ecology

Two artificial agents(a humanoid robot and a virtual human) are enriched with various similar intelligence,autonomy, functionalities and interaction modalities. The agents are integrated in the form of a cyber-physical-social system(CPSS) through a shared communication platform to create a social ecology. In the ecology, the agents collaborate(assist each other) to perform a real-world task(search for a hidden object)for the benefits of humans. A robot-virtual human bilateral trust model is derived and a real-time trust measurement method is developed. The role of taking initiative in the collaboration is switched between the agents following a finite state machine model triggered by bilateral trust, which results in a mixedinitiative collaboration. A scheme is developed to evaluate the performance of the agents in the ecology through the CPSS.The results show that the robot and the virtual human perform satisfactorily in the collaboration through the CPSS. The results thus prove the effectiveness of the real-world ecology between artificial agents of heterogeneous realities through a shared platform based on trust-triggered mixed-initiatives. The results can help develop adaptive social ecology comprising intelligent agents of heterogeneous realities to assist humans in various tasks through collaboration between the agents in the form of a CPSS.

基于CPSS的综合能源微网群参与调频辅助服务成本建模分析

随着双碳战略的实施,新能源在电力系统中所占比例不断提高,系统频率调节能力逐渐下降.针对该问题,对分布式综合能源微网群参与电力系统调频辅助服务展开深入研究.首先,基于微网个体聚合后参与调频市场的理念,阐述综合能源微网参与调频辅助服务市场的模式;其次,建立综合能源微网群的信息-物理-社会模型,基于该模型计算微网群体的调频成本,成本模型中考虑多种调频方式,并利用灰色定权聚类方法对微网的社会属性进行分类,用以仿真分析微网个体参与调频市场的意愿及概率值;然后,基于蒙特卡罗模拟提出微网聚合商参与调频辅助服务时的成本计算方法,为聚合商参与调频市场报价提供基础.最后,对一个拥有5个综合能源微网的聚合商进行仿真分析,得到其调频成本的变化曲线.仿真结果显示微网个体的社会属性对聚合商的调频成本影响可达到6.921%,在报价过程中需要充分计及微网社会属性所带来的不确定性风险.

Cyber Physical Systems—物理网络系统

物理网络系统(Cyber Physical Systems,CPSs)是一种计算进程和物理进程紧密结合的智能系统.目前对于CPSs的研究还处于初级阶段,从概念模型到关键技术都没有确切描述,给相关研究者正确理解及研究CPSs造成困难.基于CPSs未来广泛的应用范围和良好的发展前景,本文对CPSs进行了系统的介绍.本文首先给出了CPSs定义,分析了CPSs与物联网的异同点,对CPSs研究现状进行了总结,以此为基础提出了一个CPSs初步的结构框架;其次着重对CPSs研究涉及到的关键技术与基础理论进行了系统讨论,最后对CPSs的研究前景进行了展望.

Cloud Control Systems

The concept of cloud control systems is discussed in this paper, which is an extension of networked control systems(NCSs). With the development of internet of things(IOT), the technology of NCSs has played a key role in IOT. At the same time, cloud computing is developed rapidly, which provides a perfect platform for big data processing, controller design and performance assessment. The research on cloud control systems will give new contribution to the control theory and applications in the near future.

平行智能与CPSS:三十年发展的回顾与展望

社会物理信息系统(Cyber-physical-social systems,CPSS)在传统物理信息系统(Cyber-physical systems,CPS)的基础上纳入对社会信号及社会关系的考虑,利用网络世界近乎无限的人力、数据和信息资源,突破物理世界有限的资源约束以及时空的限制.然而,CPSS中人类和社会行为的复杂性加剧了实际系统和其模型之间的建模鸿沟,使得系统的形态演变为“默顿系统”.对此,以ACP方法为核心的平行智能(Parallel intelligence,PI)框架通过组合人工系统(Artificial systems,A)、计算实验(Computational experiments,C)、平行执行(Parallel execution,P)三个过程,为跨越这一鸿沟提供了可行的路径.具体而言,ACP将模型从系统解析器转变为数据生成器,使原本难以控制的“默顿系统”可测试、可计算、可验证,为复杂系统中“涌现”和“收敛”的对立统一确立了方法基础.本文从平行控制与智能控制、平行机器人与平行制造、平行管理与智能交通、平行医学与智慧健康、平行生态与平行社会、平行经济系统与社会计算、平行军事系统以及平行认知与平行哲学这八个方面阐述面向CPSS的平行智能应用成果.最后,对CPSS未来的发展方向和技术趋势进行了讨论与展望.

Cyber-Physical Systems as General Distributed Parameter Systems:Three Types of Fractional Order Models and Emerging Research Opportunities

Cyber-physical systems(CPSs) are man-made complex systems coupled with natural processes that, as a whole,should be described by distributed parameter systems(DPSs) in general forms. This paper presents three such general models for generalized DPSs that can be used to characterize complex CPSs. These three different types of fractional operators based DPS models are: fractional Laplacian operator, fractional power of operator or fractional derivative. This research investigation is motivated by many fractional order models describing natural, physical, and anomalous phenomena, such as sub-diffusion process or super-diffusion process. The relationships among these three different operators are explored and explained. Several potential future research opportunities are then articulated followed by some conclusions and remarks.

CPSS视角下城市建筑与配电网高韧性协调运行:研究述评与展望

“韧性”是城市应对自然灾害、提高风险防控能力的重要属性。频发的大停电事故会造成严重的经济和民生损失,阻碍城市发展甚至威胁国家能源安全“,韧性配电网”是“韧性城市”的必然要求与基本保障。高比例建筑负荷是城市配电网的主要特征,恢复供电后的建筑负荷行为异于常态,不仅对电力供应提出了更高的要求,而且给予配电网韧性以提升潜力。城市建筑作为用户与电力系统、电力市场、大数据等深度交互的主要场所之一,其与配电网的协调运行是一个复杂的信息-物理-社会系统(CPSS)。首先,文中重点关注城市配电网负荷恢复阶段,总结了当前城市建筑与配电网高韧性协调运行在物理、社会、信息维度面临的问题;然后,分别对极端条件下城市建筑与配电网的耦合机理和建模(物理维度)、城市建筑产消者行为刻画与激励机制设计(社会维度)、配电网灾后态势感知与数据共享(信息维度)三方面的研究现状进行了述评;最后,总结了CPSS视角下城市建筑与配电网高韧性耦合运行研究所面临的四重挑战,并对未来的研究路径进行了展望。

Learning-Based Switched Reliable Control of Cyber-Physical Systems With Intermittent Communication Faults

This study deals with reliable control problems in data-driven cyber-physical systems(CPSs) with intermittent communication faults, where the faults may be caused by bad or broken communication devices and/or cyber attackers. To solve them, a watermark-based anomaly detector is proposed, where the faults are divided to be either detectable or undetectable.Secondly, the fault's intermittent characteristic is described by the average dwell-time(ADT)-like concept, and then the reliable control issues, under the undetectable faults to the detector, are converted into stabilization issues of switched systems. Furthermore,based on the identifier-critic-structure learning algorithm, a datadriven switched controller with a prescribed-performance-based switching law is proposed, and by the ADT approach, a tolerated fault set is given. Additionally, it is shown that the presented switching laws can improve the system performance degradation in asynchronous intervals, where the degradation is caused by the fault-maker-triggered switching rule, which is unknown for CPS operators. Finally, an illustrative example validates the proposed method.

多源数据环境下产业竞争情报智慧服务平台构建研究--以“三元世界”和CPSS理论为基础

面对多源数据环境和复杂信息场景,产业竞争情报服务优化升级成为助力新一轮产业发展和产业链优化的抓手。我国产业亟须构建体系化的竞争情报智慧服务平台,赋能大变局时代和复杂国际竞争中的产业健康发展。本文聚焦于多源数据环境,采用半结构化访谈方法进行产业竞争情报服务平台现状调研,以“三元世界”和CPSS(cyber-physical-socialsystems)系统建模思想为依据,实现物理世界、信息空间和人类社会中的多源数据多维立体解析和数据融合,借助解构思想进行产业竞争情报元素分解和重组,构建产业竞争情报智慧服务平台模型,并提出“情报协同采集与处理-多源数据跨模态、跨结构融合-联盟链分布式情报数据存储-情报知识挖掘与发现-定制化智慧服务”的产业竞争情报智慧服务平台实施路径。

基于CPSS的电力系统规划分析

阐述CPSS作为建设能源互联网的核心基础,探讨基于CPSS的电力系统规划,包括能源网络与电力能源流向、通信网络与业务流向、社会价值网络与信息流向、基于CPSS的统一规划。

城市轨道交通CPSS平台构建研究

城市轨道交通系统同时涉及工程复杂性和社会复杂性,呈现动态性、开放性、交互性、自主性等特征,是社会物理信息系统(Cyber-physical-social system, CPSS)的典型代表,传统的仿真技术难以对其进行全面的研究和分析.本文研究并构建了城市轨道交通CPSS平台(包括物理系统模型、社会系统模型、Cyber系统模型),建立相应的计算实验平台和综合评估系统,描述其详细功能.通过CPSS平台可进行各种极限和常规实验,对城市轨道交通在正常情况下的评估优化和在突发事故下的应急管理进行研究,提高对城市轨道交通的建模、评估、分析和优化能力,还可为运行方案评估与规划、城市轨道交通设计、应急预案评价与优化、人员培训等方面提供技术支持.

融合信息物理社会因素的配电网可靠性评估方法

为分析重大社会活动中信息系统先进技术和社会系统应急保电措施对配电网可靠性的影响,文中提出融合信息物理社会因素的配电网可靠性评估方法。首先,为分析信息物理社会系统的相互作用,构建了配电网可靠性的信息物理社会交互框架。然后,通过构建设备发展型和破坏型故障状态转移模型,量化了信息系统中缺陷诊断、风险预警技术作用周期以及社会系统中检修人员技术水平与设备故障率的关系。通过构建设备故障恢复时间模型,量化了信息系统中故障定位技术精度以及社会系统中交通路况、应急物资充裕度与设备故障恢复时间的关系。最后,为了验证框架和模型的有效性,文中建立了一个包含信息物理社会系统基本信息的测试系统。结果验证了信息、社会系统对配电物理系统可靠性的提升作用。

Parallel Driving in CPSS:A Unified Approach for Transport Automation and Vehicle Intelligence

The emerging development of connected and automated vehicles imposes a significant challenge on current vehicle control and transportation systems. This paper proposes a novel unified approach, Parallel Driving, a cloud-based cyberphysical-social systems(CPSS) framework aiming at synergizing connected automated driving. This study first introduces the CPSS and ACP-based intelligent machine systems. Then the parallel driving is proposed in the cyber-physical-social space,considering interactions among vehicles, human drivers, and information. Within the framework, parallel testing, parallel learning and parallel reinforcement learning are developed and concisely reviewed. Development on intelligent horizon(iHorizon)and its applications are also presented towards parallel horizon.The proposed parallel driving offers an ample solution for achieving a smooth, safe and efficient cooperation among connected automated vehicles with different levels of automation in future road transportation systems.

基于CPSS的电力系统规划研究

能源互联网是能源领域的信息物理社会系统(cyber physical social system,CPSS),基于CPSS的电力系统规划应综合考虑目标网络的信息、物理、社会系统的深度融合,进行能源电力流、业务信息流、社会价值流相协调统一的规划研究。本文基于CPSS提出电力规划的新思路,CPSS的网络和网元替代变电站、发电厂、储能站、输电线路等来进行规划布局,综合考虑负荷预测、用电需求、业务流向、信息需求、综合能源服务、国土空间、社会发展等因素,进行基于多维度属性的统一规划,有效避免各个系统自成体系的无序规划,以期得到更全面、更客观和更具前瞻性的规划研究成果。

Small Signal Stability Analysis of DFIG Fed Wind Power System Using a Robust Fuzzy Logic Controller

This paper focuses on the small signal stability analysis of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) fed wind power system under three modes of operation. The system stability is affected by the influence of electromechanical oscillations, which can be damped using Power System Stabilizer (PSS). A detailed modeling of DFIG fed wind system including controller has been carried out. The damping controller is designed using fuzzy logic to damp the oscillatory modes for stability. The robust performance of the system with controllers has been evaluated using eigen value analysis and time domain simulations under various disturbances and wind speeds. The effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy based PSS is compared with the performance of conventional PSS implemented in the wind system.

平行夏尔希里:生态资源智能管护及其可持续发展新途径

新疆夏尔希里自然保护区是一处珍稀生物资源与无法估量的生态价值共融的自然瑰宝,被誉为“中国最后的净土”和“珍稀的天然基因库”。为确保这一自然宝库的可持续发展,提出了“平行夏尔希里”概念,以智能化手段全方位助力其生态资源的精细化管理。核心思想是利用描述智能建立高精度模型,通过预测智能分析生态系统变化,借助引导智能科学地制定保护策略。探索了通过智能科技建立自然保护区管理与应用的新模式,以期推动保护区及其珍贵生物资源的可持续发展。