Mental emotional disorder is a predictor of stroke incidence in adults:Ten year results of the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Indonesia

Objective:To determine the stroke predictors for the 10-year of follow-up in Bogor City,Indonesia.Methods:The prospective study analyzed the data of 4445 stroke-free subjects aged 25 years and above that was part of"the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors".Data were collected by interview method with structured questionnaires,physical measurements three times a year,and laboratory examination every two years during a 10-year follow-up(2011-2021,without examination in 2020).The incidence of stroke is based on anamnesis results and examination by a neurologist.Other stroke predictor variables include characteristics,biological conditions,and risk behavior.We analysed 4445 stroke-free samples with Cox proportional hazard regression test.Results:During the 10-year observation,stroke incidence was 440 person-years per 100000 population(95%CI 370-530).During the follow-up of ten years,the main predictor of stroke was mental-emotional disorders with HR 4.2(95%CI 2.8-6.3)after adjustment by age,hypertension,obesity,abdominal obesity,and high LDL-cholesterol levels.Conclusions:Mental-emotional disorders are the strongest predictor of stroke incidence.Hence,psychological factors must be controlled in a stroke prevention program.

Predictors of Abnormal Vaginal Discharge among Women of Reproductive Age in Southeast Nigeria

Background: An abnormal vaginal discharge is a common complaint among women of reproductive age, and it can indicate serious conditions like pelvic inflammatory disease and cervical cancer. This study aimed to assess the predictors of abnormal vaginal discharge in women of reproductive age group in Imo State, Southeast Nigeria. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 368 women of reproductive age group attending the clinic at Federal University Teaching Hospital Owerri, in Imo State, Nigeria. Respondents were recruited using a systematic sampling technique. Data were collected using a pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaire. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine predictors of abnormal vaginal discharge. Statistical significance was set at p Results: The mean age of the respondents was 30 ± 4.5 years. Predictors of abnormal vaginal discharge were: age 36 - 45 years (OR: 4.5;95% C.I: 1.023 - 8.967, p = 0.041), being a student (OR: 2.4: 95% C.I: 1.496 - 7.336, p = 0.003), use of oral contraceptives (OR: 3.4;95% C.I: 1.068 - 6.932, p = 0.010), use of water cistern (OR: 4.7;C.I: 1.654 - 5.210, p = 0.028) anal hygiene practices (OR: 2.7;95% C.I: 1.142 - 4.809, p Conclusion: These findings suggest that targeted sexual and reproductive health interventions should be provided to reduce the risk of abnormal vaginal discharge in women of reproductive age group.

Echocardiographic predictors and associated outcomes of multiple vegetations in infective endocarditis:A pilot study

BACKGROUND Infective endocarditis(IE)is a life-threatening infection with an annual mortality of 40%.Embolic events reported in up to 80%of patients.Vegetations of>10 mm size are associated with increased embolic events and poor prognosis.There is a paucity of literature on the association of multiple vegetations with outcome.AIM To study the echocardiographic(ECHO)features and outcomes associated with the presence of multiple vegetations.METHODS In this retrospective,single-center,cohort study patients diagnosed with IE were recruited from June 2017 to June 2019.A total of 84 patients were diagnosed to have IE,of whom 67 with vegetation were identified.Baseline demographic,clinical,laboratory,and ECHO parameters were reviewed.Outcomes that were studied included recurrent admission,embolic phenomenon,and mortality.RESULTS Twenty-three(34%)patients were noted to have multiple vegetations,13(56.5%)were male and 10(43.5%)were female.The mean age of these patients was 50.Eight(35%)had a prior episode of IE.ECHO features of moderate to severe valvular regurgitation[odds ratio(OR)=4],presence of pacemaker lead(OR=4.8),impaired left ventricle(LV)relaxation(OR=4),and elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure(PASP)(OR=2.2)are associated with higher odds of multiple vegetations.Of these moderate to severe valvular regurgitation(P=0.028),pacemaker lead(P=0.039)and impaired relaxation(P=0.028)were statistically significant.These patients were noted to have an increased association of recurrent admissions(OR=3.6),recurrent bacteremia(OR=2.4),embolic phenomenon(OR=2.5),intensive care unit stay(OR=2.8),hypotension(OR=2.1),surgical intervention(OR=2.8)and device removal(OR=4.8).Of this device removal(P=0.039)and recurrent admissions(P=0.017)were statistically significant.CONCLUSION This study highlights the associations of ECHO predictors and outcomes in patients with IE having multiple vegetations.ECHO features of moderate to severe regurgitation,presence of pacemaker lead,impaired LV relaxation,and elevated PASP and outcomes including recurrent admissions and device removal were found to be associated with multiple vegetations.

Predictors of Fatal Outcome in Hospitalised Adult Patients with Acute Kidney Injury at Two Tertiary Hospitals in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction: Data on mortality in acute kidney injury (AKI) derives from high-income countries where AKI is hospital-acquired and occurs in elderly patients with a high burden of cardiovascular disease. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), AKI is community-acquired occurring in healthy young adults. We aimed to identify predictors of fatal outcomes in patients with AKI in two tertiary hospitals in Cameroon. Methods: Medical records of adults with confirmed AKI, from January 2018 to March 2020 were retrieved. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital deaths and presumed causes of death. We used multiple logistic regressions modeling to identify predictors of death. The study was approved by the ethics boards of both hospitals. Values were considered significant for a p-value of 0.05. Results: We included 285 patient records (37.2% females). The mean (SD) age was 50.1 (19.0) years. Hypertension (n = 97, 34.0%), organ failure (n = 88, 30.9%), and diabetes (n = 60, 21.1%) were the main comorbidities. The majority of patients had community-acquired AKI (78.6%, n = 224), were KDIGO stage 3 (88.8%, n = 253), and needed dialysis (52.6%, n = 150). Up to 16.7% (n = 25) did not receive what was needed. The in-hospital mortality rate was 29.1% (n = 83). Lack of access to dialysis (OR = 27.8;CI: 5.2 - 149.3, p = 0.001), hypotension (OR = 11.8;CI: 1.3 - 24.8;p = 0.001) and ICU admission (OR = 5.7;CI: 1.3 - 24.8, p = 0.001) were predictors of mortality. The presence of co-morbidities or underlying diseases (n = 46, 55%) were the main causes of death. Conclusions: In-hospital AKI mortality is high, as in other low- and middle-income economies. Lack of access to dialysis and the severity of the underlying illness are major predictors of death.

Predictors of portal vein thrombosis after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND Portal vein thrombosis(PVT)is a commonthsn complication after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis.However,the predictors of postoperative PVT are not known.AIM To investigate the predictors of PVT after splenectomy in patient with cirrhosis.METHODS A total of 45 patients with cirrhosis who underwent splenectomy were consecutively enrolled from January 2017 to December 2018.The incidence of PVT at 1 months,3 months,and 12 months after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis was observed.The hematological indicators,biochemical and coagulation parameters,and imaging features were recorded at baseline and at each observation point.The univariable,multivariable,receiver operating characteristic curve and timedependent curve analyses were performed.RESULTS The cumulative incidence of PVT was 40.0%,46.6%,and 48.9%at 1 months,3 months,and 12 months after splenectomy.Multivariable analysis showed that portal vein diameter(PVD)≥14.5 mm and monthsdel end-stage liver disease(MELD)score>10 were independent predictors of PVT at 1 months,3 months,and 12 months after splenectomy(P<0.05).Time-dependent curve showed that the cumulative incidence of PVT was significantly different between patients with MELD score≤10 and>10(P<0.05).In addition,the cumulative incidence of PVT in the PVD≥14.5 mm group was significantly higher than that in the PVD<14.5 mm group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Wider PVD and MELD score>10 were independent predictors of PVT at 1 months,3 months,and 12 months after splenectomy in patient with cirrhosis.

Rates, predictors, and causes of readmission after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND Transcatheter aortic valve replacement(TAVR)is a revolutionary procedure for severe aortic stenosis.The coexistence of chronic kidney disease(CKD)and TAVR introduces a challenge that significantly impacts patient outcomes.AIM To define readmission rates,predictors,and causes after TAVR procedure in CKD stage 1-4 patients.METHODS We used the national readmission database 2018 and 2020 to look into readmission rates,causes and predictors after TAVR procedure in patients with CKD stage 1-4.RESULTS Out of 24758 who underwent TAVR and had CKD,7892(32.4%)patients were readmitted within 90 days,and had higher adjusted odds of being females(adjusted odds ratio:1.17,95%CI:1.02-1.31,P=0.02)with longer length of hospital stay>6 days,and more comorbidities including but not limited to diabetes mellitus,anemia,and congestive heart failure(CHF).CONCLUSION Most common causes of readmission included CHF(18.0%),sepsis,and complete atrioventricular block.Controlling readmission predictors with very close followup is warranted to prevent such high rate of readmission.

Heterogeneously elevated branched-chain/aromatic amino acids among new-onset type-2 diabetes mellitus patients are potentially skewed diabetes predictors

BACKGROUND The lack of specific predictors for type-2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)severely impacts early intervention/prevention efforts.Elevated branched-chain amino acids(BCAAs:Isoleucine,leucine,valine)and aromatic amino acids(AAAs:Tyrosine,tryptophan,phenylalanine)show high sensitivity and specificity in predicting diabetes in animals and predict T2DM 10-19 years before T2DM onset in clinical studies.However,improvement is needed to support its clinical utility.AIM To evaluate the effects of body mass index(BMI)and sex on BCAAs/AAAs in new-onset T2DM individuals with varying body weight.METHODS Ninety-seven new-onset T2DM patients(<12 mo)differing in BMI[normal weight(NW),n=33,BMI=22.23±1.60;overweight,n=42,BMI=25.9±1.07;obesity(OB),n=22,BMI=31.23±2.31]from the First People’s Hospital of Yunnan Province,Kunming,China,were studied.One-way and 2-way ANOVAs were conducted to determine the effects of BMI and sex on BCAAs/AAAs.RESULTS Fasting serum AAAs,BCAAs,glutamate,and alanine were greater and high-density lipoprotein(HDL)was lower(P<0.05,each)in OB-T2DM patients than in NW-T2DM patients,especially in male OB-T2DM patients.Arginine,histidine,leucine,methionine,and lysine were greater in male patients than in female patients.Moreover,histidine,alanine,glutamate,lysine,valine,methionine,leucine,isoleucine,tyrosine,phenylalanine,and tryptophan were significantly correlated with abdominal adiposity,body weight and BMI,whereas isoleucine,leucine and phenylalanine were negatively correlated with HDL.CONCLUSION Heterogeneously elevated amino acids,especially BCAAs/AAAs,across new-onset T2DM patients in differing BMI categories revealed a potentially skewed prediction of T2DM development.The higher BCAA/AAA levels in obese T2DM patients would support T2DM prediction in obese individuals,whereas the lower levels of BCAAs/AAAs in NW-T2DM individuals may underestimate T2DM risk in NW individuals.This potentially skewed T2DM prediction should be considered when BCAAs/AAAs are to be used as the T2DM predictor.

Depression&Anxiety Among Women in Northern Kenya:Sociodemographic Predictors

This article documents socio-demographic predictors of anxiety and depression among Maasai women in resource poor settings in Northern Kenya.These findings emerged from the findings of a dissertation research that aimed to establish the treatment effectiveness of an eclectic model of psychoeducation(PE)in treating depressive and anxiety symptoms among the women.The study adopted a quasi-experimental research design which had an experimental group(EG)and control group(CG).The population for the study was 686 female members of Conservation Enterprise Groups(CEG)in Laikipia County,from which a sample of 200 were recruited for the study(EG,n=100 and CG,n=100),at 80%power and 30%effective size.The Beck’s Depression Inventory(BDI)and Beck’s Anxiety Inventory(BAI)tools were used to assess the symptoms of depression and anxiety,respectively.The PE was provided as an intervention treatment to the EG at the middle and end of the study,after which the respondents were tested for symptoms of depression.The study established the prevalence of depression as 26.7%and 31.3%for anxiety and disorders,among women in the region.Data was analyzed using SPSS Version 21.0.

Predictors of stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection of the esophagus and steroids application

BACKGROUND Endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD)is a reliable method to resect early esophageal cancer.Esophageal stricture is one of the major complications after ESD of the esophagus.Steroid prophylaxis for esophageal strictures,particularly local injection of triamcinolone acetonide(TA),is a relatively effective method to prevent esophageal strictures.However,even with steroid prophylaxis,stenosis still occurs in up to 45%of patients.Predicting the risk of stenosis formation after local TA injection would enable additional interventions in risky patients.AIM To identify the predictors of esophageal strictures after steroids application.METHODS Patients who underwent esophageal ESD and steroid prophylaxis and who were comprehensively assessed for lesion-and ESD-related factors at Southeast University Affiliated Zhongda Hospital between February 2018 and March 2023 were included in the study.The univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify the predictors of stricture among patients undergoing steroid prophylaxis.RESULTS A total of 120 patients were included in the analysis.In the oral prednisone and oral prednisone combined with local tretinoin injection groups,the stenosis rates were 44/53(83.0%)and 56/67(83.6%),respectively.Among them,univariate analysis showed that the lesion circumference(P=0.01)and submucosal injection solution(P=0.04)showed significant correlation with the risk of stenosis formation.Logistic regression analyses were then performed using predictors that were significant in the univariate analyses and combined with known predictors from previous reports,such as additional chemoradiotherapy and tumor location.We identified a lesion circumference<5/6(OR=0.19;P=0.02)and submucosal injection of sodium hyaluronate(OR=0.15;P=0.03)as independent predictors of on esophageal stricture formation.CONCLUSION Steroid prophylaxis effectively prevents stenosis.Moreover,the lesion circumference and submucosal injection of sodium hyaluronate were independent predictors of esophageal strictures.Additional interventions should be considered in high-risk patients.

Time to recovery from severe pneumonia and its predictors among pediatric patients admitted in Mizan-Tepi University Teaching Hospital,South West Ethiopia,2022

Objective:Despite trials and programs for the prevention of childhood mortality due to pneumonia,Ethiopia is among the top five countries with the highest number of deaths due to pneumonia.Although the prevalence of pneumonia has increased in the abovementioned trials,little is known about the recovery time from severe pneumonia and its predictors in the study area.Therefore,this study aimed to assess the time to recovery from severe pneumonia and its predictors among pediatric patients admitted to Mizan-Tepi University Teaching Hospital,Ethiopia,in 2022.Methods:A total of 591 children admitted for severe pneumonia were selected using simple random sampling.Data were entered into Epi-data version 4.4.2.1 and expor ted to STATA version 14 for analysis,and the assumptions of Cox propor tional hazard models and goodness of fit were assessed through Shoenfeld residual and Cox-Snell residual,respectively.Bivariate and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify the predictors of mor tality.Results:This study revealed that 91.54%(95%confidence interval[CI]:89.00–93.53)of participants recovered with an incidence rate of 24.10(95%CI:22.15–26.21)per 100 person-day–observations.The hmedian recovery time of children was 4 days(95%CI:2–6).Children who were not exclusively breastfed(AHR=1.3;95%CI:1.03–1.66),who had a history of inability to suck/feed(AHR=0.81;95%CI:0.65–0.99)were independent predictors of the time to recovery.Conclusions:Children with severe pneumonia who had not exclusively breastfed and who had a history of inability to suck/feed were independent predictors of time to recovery.Therefore,all stakeholders and concerned health care providers should focus more on early diagnosis and management and hasten early recovery based on the identified factors.

A Full Predictor-Corrector Finite Element Method for the One-Dimensional Heat Equation with Time-Dependent Singularities

The energy norm convergence rate of the finite element solution of the heat equation is reduced by the time-regularity of the exact solution. This paper presents an adaptive finite element treatment of time-dependent singularities on the one-dimensional heat equation. The method is based on a Fourier decomposition of the solution and an extraction formula of the coefficients of the singularities coupled with a predictor-corrector algorithm. The method recovers the optimal convergence rate of the finite element method on a quasi-uniform mesh refinement. Numerical results are carried out to show the efficiency of the method.

The Chebyshev spectral element method using staggered predictor and corrector for elastic wave simulations

Based on strong and weak forms of elastic wave equations, a Chebyshev spectral element method （SEM） using the Galerkin variational principle is developed by discretizing the wave equation in the spatial and time domains and introducing the preconditioned conjugate gradient （PCG）-element by element （EBE） method in the spatial domain and the staggered predictor/corrector method in the time domain. The accuracy of our proposed method is verified by comparing it with a finite-difference method （FDM） for a homogeneous solid medium and a double layered solid medium with an inclined interface. The modeling results using the two methods are in good agreement with each other. Meanwhile, to show the algorithm capability, the suggested method is used to simulate the wave propagation in a layered medium with a topographic traction free surface. By introducing the EBE algorithm with an optimized tensor product technique, the proposed SEM is especially suitable for numerical simulation of wave propagations in complex models with irregularly free surfaces at a fast convergence rate, while keeping the advantage of the finite element method.

用Polymorph Predictor方法模拟TATB的晶体结构

采用PolymorphPredictor方法对TATB的晶体结构进行模拟的结果是:P-1,a=9.01 ,b=9.01 ,c=6.01 ,α=90.01°,β=90.01°,γ=120.00°,ρ=2.03g·cm-3,并得到XRD谱图(2θ=11.5、29.5处有强峰),结果与实验值比较接近。

凸二次规划的Predictor－Corrector算法

考虑凸二次规划问题，给出了一个新的算法。

Characteristics and predictors of gastric cancer after Helicobacter pylori eradication

Helicobacter pylori(H. pylori) eradication can reduce gastric cancer. However, gastric cancer still develops after eradication, and cases who received eradication therapy are increasing. In this study, we have reviewed the characteristics and predictors of primary gastric cancer developing after H. pylori eradication. In terms of the characteristics, endoscopic, histologic, and molecular characteristics are reported. Endoscopically, gastric cancer after eradication is often depressedtype and shows a gastritis-like appearance, which sometimes makes the diagnosis difficult. Histologically, most gastric cancer after eradication is intestinal type, and non-neoplastic epithelium, also called epithelium with low-grade atypia, is frequently seen over the tumor, which is presumably the cause of the endoscopic gastritis-like appearance. As for molecular characteristics, some markers, such as Ki67, MUC2, and Wnt5a expression, are lower in cancer from patients in whom H. pylori has been eradicated. In terms of predictors, several Japanese studies have reported that severe endoscopic atrophy at eradication is a risk factor for gastric cancer development. Histologic intestinal metaplasia, especially in the corpus, and long-term use of proton pump inhibitors, are also reported as risk factors for gastric cancer after H. pylori eradication. These studies on the characteristics and predictors of gastric cancer development will become the cornerstone for establishing a novel surveillance program based on the gastric cancer risk stratification specific to H. pylori-eradicated patients.

Predictors of rebleeding after initial hemostasis with epinephrine injection in high-risk ulcers

AIM: To identify the predictors of rebleeding after initial hemostasis with epinephrine injection (EI) in patients with high-risk ulcers. METHODS: Recent studies have revealed that endoscopic thermocoagulation, or clips alone or combined with EI are superior to EI alone to arrest ulcer bleeding. However, the reality is that EI monotherapy is still common in clinical practice. From October 2006 to April 2008, high-risk ulcer patients in whom hemorrhage was stopped after EI monotherapy were studied using clinical, laboratory and endoscopic variables. The patients were divided into 2 groups: sustained hemostasis and rebleeding. RESULTS: A total of 175 patients (144, sustainedhemostasis; 31, rebleeding) were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed that older age (≥ 60 years), advanced American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) status (category Ⅲ , Ⅳ and Ⅴ ), shock, severe anemia (hemoglobin < 80 g/L), EI dose ≥ 12 mL and severe bleeding signs (SBS) including hematemesis or hematochezia were the factors which predicted rebleeding. However, only older age, severe anemia, high EI dose and SBS were independent predictors. Among 31 rebleeding patients, 10 (32.2%) underwent surgical hemostasis, 15 (48.4%) suffered from delayed hemostasis causing major complications and 13 (41.9%) died of these complications. CONCLUSION: Endoscopic EI monotherapy in patients with high-risk ulcers should be avoided. Initial hemostasis with thermocoagulation, clips or additional hemostasis after EI is mandatory for such patients to ensure better hemostatic status and to prevent subsequent rebleeding, surgery, morbidity and mortality.

Feasibility of endoscopic treatment and predictors of lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer

BACKGROUND Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) has been routinely performed in applicable early gastric cancer (EGC) patients as an alternative to conventional surgical operations that involve lymph node dissection. The indications for ESD have been recently expanded to include larger, ulcerated, and undifferentiated mucosal lesions, and differentiated lesions with slight submucosal invasion. The risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is the most important consideration when deciding on a treatment strategy for EGC. Despite the advantages over surgical procedures, lymph nodes cannot be removed by ESD. In addition, whether patients who meet the expanded indications for ESD can be managed safely remains controversial. AIM To determine whether the ESD indications are applicable to Chinese patients and to investigate the predictors of LNM in EGC. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 12552 patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer between June 2007 and December 2018 at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University. A total of 1262 (10.1%) EGC patients were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the patients’ clinical, endoscopic, and histopathological characteristics were collected. The absolute and expanded indications for ESD were validated by regrouping the enrolled patients and determining the positive LNM results in each subgroup. Predictors of LNM in patients were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS LNM was observed in 182 (14.4%) patients. No LNM was detected in the patients who met the absolute indications (0/90). LNM occurred in 4/311 (1.3%) patients who met the expanded indications. According to univariate analysis, LNM was significantly associated with positive tumor marker status, medium (20-30 mm) and large (>30 mm) lesion sizes, excavated macroscopic-type tumors, ulcer presence, submucosal invasion (SM1 and SM2), poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), perineural invasion, and diffuse and mixed Lauren’s types. Multivariate analysis demonstrated SM1 invasion (odds ration [OR]= 2.285, P = 0.03), SM2 invasion (OR = 3.230, P < 0.001), LVI (OR = 15.702, P < 0.001), mucinous adenocarcinoma (OR = 2.823, P = 0.015), and large lesion size (OR = 1.900, P = 0.006) to be independent risk factors. CONCLUSION The absolute indications for ESD are reasonable, and the feasibility of expanding the indications for ESD requires further investigation. The predictors of LNM include invasion depth, LVI, mucinous adenocarcinoma, and lesion size.

Predictors of re-bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis for delayed post-endoscopic sphincterotomy bleeding

AIM: To predict the re-bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis for delayed post-endoscopic sphincterotomy(ES) bleeding.METHODS: Over a 15-year period, data from 161 patients with delayed post-ES bleeding were retrospectively collected from a single medical center. To identify risk factors for re-bleeding after initial successful endoscopic hemostasis, parameters before, during and after the procedure of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography were analyzed. These included age, gender, blood biochemistry, comorbidities, endoscopic diagnosis, presence of periampullary diverticulum, occurrence of immediate postES bleeding, use of needle knife precut sphincterotomy, severity of delayed bleeding, endoscopic features on delayed bleeding, and type of endoscopic therapy.RESULTS: A total of 35 patients(21.7%) had rebleeding after initial successful endoscopic hemostasis for delayed post-ES bleeding. Univariate analysis revealed that malignant biliary stricture, serum bilirubin level of greater than 10 mg/d L, initial bleeding severity, and bleeding diathesis were significant predictors of rebleeding. By multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin level of greater than 10 mg/d L and initial bleeding severity remained significant predictors. Re-bleeding was controlled by endoscopic therapy in a single(n = 23) or multiple(range, 2-7; n = 6) sessions in 29 of the 35 patients(82.9%). Four patients required transarterial embolization and one went for surgery. These five patients had severe bleeding when delayed post-ES bleeding occurred. One patient with decompensated liver cirrhosis died from re-bleeding.CONCLUSION: Re-bleeding occurs in approximately one-fifth of patients after initial successful endoscopic hemostasis for delayed post-ES bleeding. Severity of initial bleeding and serum bilirubin level of greater than 10 mg/d L are predictors of re-bleeding.

NAFLD fibrosis score:A prognostic predictor for mortality and liver complications among NAFLD patients

AIM:To study whether the severity of liver fibrosis estimated by the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) fibrosis score can predict all-cause mortality,cardiac complications,and/or liver complications of patients with NAFLD over long-term follow-up.METHODS:A cohort of well-characterized patients with NAFLD diagnosed during the period of 1980-2000 was identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project.The NAFLD fibrosis score(NFS) was used to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced liver fibrosis.We used the NFS score to classify the probability of fibrosis as <-1.5 for low probability,>-1.5 to < 0.67 for intermediate probability,and > 0.67 for high probability.Primary endpoints included allcause death and cardiovascular-and/or liver-related mortality.From the 479 patients with NAFLD assessed,302 patients(63%) greater than 18 years old were included.All patients were followed,and medical charts were reviewed until August 31,2009 or the date when the first primary endpoint occurred.By using a standardized case record form,we recorded a detailed history and physical examination and the use of statins and metformin during the follow-up period.RESULTS:A total of 302/479(63%) NAFLD patients(mean age:47 ± 13 year) were included with a followup period of 12.0 ± 3.9 year.A low probability of advanced fibrosis(NFS <-1.5 at baseline) was found in 181 patients(60%),while an intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis(NSF >-1.5) was found in 121 patients(40%).At the end of the follow-up period,55 patients(18%) developed primary endpoints.A total of 39 patients(13%) died during the follow-up.The leading causes of death were non-hepatic malignancy(n = 13/39;33.3%),coronary heart disease(CHD)(n = 8/39;20.5%),and liver-related mortality(n = 5/39;12.8%).Thirty patients had new-onset CHD,whereas 8 of 30 patients(27%) died from CHD-related causes during the follow-up.In a multivariate analysis,a higher NFS at baseline and the presence of new-onset CHD were significantly predictive of death(OR = 2.6 and 9.2,respectively;P < 0.0001).Our study showed a significant,graded relationship between the NFS,as classified into 3 subgroups(low,intermediate and high probability of liver fibrosis),and the occurrence of primary endpoints.The use of metformin or simvastatin for at least 3 mo during the follow-up was associated with fewer deaths in patients with NAFLD(OR = 0.2 and 0.03,respectively;P < 0.05).Additionally,the rate of annual NFS change in patients with an intermediate or high probability of advanced liver fibrosis was significantly lower than those patients with a low probability of advanced liver fibrosis(0.06 vs 0.09,P = 0.004).The annual NFS change in patients who died was significantly higher than those in patients who survived(0.14 vs 0.07,P = 0.03).At the end of the follow-up,we classified the patients into 3 subgroups according to the progression pattern of liver fibrosis by comparing the NFS at baseline to the NFS at the end of the followup period.Most patients were in the stable-fibrosis(60%) and progressive-fibrosis(37%) groups,whereas only 3% were in the regressive fibrosis.CONCLUSION:A higher NAFLD fibrosis score at baseline and a new onset of CHD were significantly predictive of death in patients with NAFLD.

Application of Smith Predictor Based on Single Neural Network in Cold Rolling Shape Control

Flatness is one of the most important criterion factors to evaluate the quality of the steel strip. To improve the strip＇ s flatness quality, the most frequently used methodology is to employ the closed-loop automatic shape control system. However, in the shape control system, the shape-meter is always installed at the down way of the exit of the cold rolling mill and can not sense the changes of the strip flatness in the rolling gap directly. This kind of installation results in the delay of the feedback in the control system. Therefore, the stability and response performance of the system are strongly affected by the delay. At present, there is still no mature way to design controllers for systems with time delay. Although the conventional PID controller used in most practical applications has the capability to compensate the delay, the effect of the compensation is limited, especially for the systems with long time delay. Smith predictor, as a compensator for solving this problem, is now widely used in industry systems. However, the request of highly precise model of the system and the poor adaptive performance to the changes of related parameters limit the application of the Smith predictor in practice. In order to overcome the drawbacks of the Smith predictor, a new Smith predictor based on single neural network PID （SNN-PID） is proposed. Because the single neural network is employed into the Smith predictor to improve the controller＇s self-adaptability, the adaptive capability to the varying parameters of the system is improved. Meanwhile, for the purpose of solving the problems such as time-consuming and complicated calculation of the neural networks in real time, the learning coefficient of neural network is divided into several stages as usually done in expert control system. Therefore, the control system can obtain fast response due to the improved calculation speed of the neural networks. In order to validate the performance of the proposed controller, the experiment is conducted on the shape control system in a 300 mm four-high reversing cold rolling mill. The experimental results show that the SNN-PID with Smith predictor controller can effectively compensate the delay effects and achieve better control performance than the conventional PID controller.