Extreme rainfall events are primary natural hazards, which cause a severe threat to people and their properties in populated cities, which are normally located in coastal areas in Vietnam. Analysing these events by us...Extreme rainfall events are primary natural hazards, which cause a severe threat to people and their properties in populated cities, which are normally located in coastal areas in Vietnam. Analysing these events by using a data series observed over years will support us to draw a picture of how the climate change impact on local environments. The purpose of this report is to understand the characteristics of the extreme rainfall events in MEKONG river delta （south VietNam）. Daily rainfall data in the period of 30 years for a meteorological station in each area were collected from the Vietnam National Hydro-meteorological Service. The extreme rainfall events were defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile for each station. The analytical results show that the rainfall values （95th percentile） are 37.4 mm/day at Nam Can station, 27 mm/day at My Thanh station, 22.4 mm/day at Hoa Binh station, 23.8 mm/day at Binh Dai station and 22.7 mm/day at Ben Trai station. The highest rainfall data ever recorded are 246.4 mm/day （Nam Can）, 174.5 mm/day （My Thanh）, 179 mm/day （Hoa Bin_h）, 187.3 mm/day （Binh Dai） and 136.3 mm/day （Ben Trai） during 1983-2012. The result of the Mann-Kendall tests show that there was a significant creasing of the rainfall at Nam Can, My Thanh station in two periods （1983-2012, 1998-2012） while no clear trend of the rainfall was recoreded at Hoa Birth, Binh Dai, Ben Trai station. In order to estimate the return period of the extreme rainfall events, the method General Extreme Value Distribution was used to calculate frequent distribution. The magnitudes of daily maximum rainfall were from 2 to 100 years. The results of return period show that maximum rainfalls are 46.6 mm at Nam Can station （highest） and 31.4 mm at Hoa Birth station （lowest） during 50 years. Similarly, maximum rainfalls are expected to be about 55.1 mm at Nam Can station and 37.2 mm at Hoa Birth station for 100 years.展开更多
文摘Extreme rainfall events are primary natural hazards, which cause a severe threat to people and their properties in populated cities, which are normally located in coastal areas in Vietnam. Analysing these events by using a data series observed over years will support us to draw a picture of how the climate change impact on local environments. The purpose of this report is to understand the characteristics of the extreme rainfall events in MEKONG river delta （south VietNam）. Daily rainfall data in the period of 30 years for a meteorological station in each area were collected from the Vietnam National Hydro-meteorological Service. The extreme rainfall events were defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile for each station. The analytical results show that the rainfall values （95th percentile） are 37.4 mm/day at Nam Can station, 27 mm/day at My Thanh station, 22.4 mm/day at Hoa Binh station, 23.8 mm/day at Binh Dai station and 22.7 mm/day at Ben Trai station. The highest rainfall data ever recorded are 246.4 mm/day （Nam Can）, 174.5 mm/day （My Thanh）, 179 mm/day （Hoa Bin_h）, 187.3 mm/day （Binh Dai） and 136.3 mm/day （Ben Trai） during 1983-2012. The result of the Mann-Kendall tests show that there was a significant creasing of the rainfall at Nam Can, My Thanh station in two periods （1983-2012, 1998-2012） while no clear trend of the rainfall was recoreded at Hoa Birth, Binh Dai, Ben Trai station. In order to estimate the return period of the extreme rainfall events, the method General Extreme Value Distribution was used to calculate frequent distribution. The magnitudes of daily maximum rainfall were from 2 to 100 years. The results of return period show that maximum rainfalls are 46.6 mm at Nam Can station （highest） and 31.4 mm at Hoa Birth station （lowest） during 50 years. Similarly, maximum rainfalls are expected to be about 55.1 mm at Nam Can station and 37.2 mm at Hoa Birth station for 100 years.
