老龄化、养老金覆盖率与水平对养老金支付负担的影响研究

人口老龄化是影响基础养老保险制度可持续性的关键因素。基于年龄移算法和生命表技术,以第六次与第七次全国人口普查数据为基础,测算2010-2030年中国领取养老金的老年人口规模、年限与资金规模。研究发现:由于老龄化程度加深与养老保险覆盖面扩大,中国领取养老金的老年人口规模持续扩大,从2010年的1.23亿人增加到2030年的3.32亿人。与此同时,中国养老金领取水平逐渐提高,养老金支付负担与日俱增,支出总额至少从2010年的13293.90亿元上涨至2030年的118933.19亿元。此外,由于老年人口余寿的显著延长,老年人领取养老金的年限也不断延长,从2010年的10.13年延长到2030年的19.92年,领取年限延长速度超过余寿延长速度。另外,养老金的支付负担还存在明显的性别与城乡差异。故而,提出落实延迟退休政策、慎重上调养老金替代率与养老金水平等参量变革措施、发展多支柱养老金模式、鼓励生育等结构改革举措,在人口与经济高质量发展中促进共同富裕。

上海发展多支柱养老保险的路径分析与政策选择

近年来上海大力发展多支柱养老保险体系,致力于健全更加公平更可持续的多层次社会保障制度体系。基于第一支柱基本养老保险基金、第二支柱企业年金和职业年金、第三支柱个人养老金和商业养老保险的问题分析,借鉴国际经验,提出了相应的政策建议:一是提出延迟退休年龄的配套政策选择,健全完善基础养老金待遇计发公式,构建适合我国国情的基本养老金自动调整公式;二是从政策设计方面推动企业年金的进一步发展,降低社保缴费率,切实减轻企业负担,推动企业年金制度同步发展,加强政策配套力度,提升政策激励效应;三是提高个人养老金的税优额度,扩大个人养老金覆盖面,进一步改革个人账户制,提高个人养老金的长期投资回报率,增强个人养老金制度的吸引力。

“医养结合”养老模式下空巢失能老人负性情绪及与睡眠质量、慢性疾病的关系

目的:调查“医养结合”养老模式下空巢失能老人负性情绪,并评估其与睡眠质量、慢性疾病的关系。方法:对2019年9月-2023年9月入住于河南省3家医养结合机构的61名失能老人展开问卷调查,问卷包括人口学资料调查表、Barthel指数评定表(BI)、焦虑自评量表(SAS)、抑郁自评量表(SDS)、匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI);以SAS得分≥50分及(或)SDS得分≥53分为存在负性情绪,将失能老人分为负性情绪组与非负性情绪组,比较两组性别、年龄、慢性疾病等一般资料,使用Logistic回归分析评估医养结合机构失能老人出现负性情绪的影响因素,并比较两组老人睡眠质量差异。结果:61名医养结合机构的失能老人中,焦虑24例(39.34%),抑郁29例(47.54%),其中有21例(34.43%)焦虑及抑郁均存在。负性情绪组无子女亲友探访率(Fisher精确概率法,P<0.05)、脑血管疾病(χ^(2)=4.035,P<0.05)及重度失能占比(χ^(2)=6.726,P<0.05)均高于非负性情绪组。Logistic回归分析显示,无子女亲友探访(OR=2.818,95%CI:1.473~5.392)、脑血管疾病(OR=2.627,95%CI:1.273~5.423)、重度失能(OR=3.466,95%CI:1.953~6.150)均为失能老人出现负性情绪的危险因素(P<0.05)。负性情绪组入睡时间、睡眠效率PSQI评分及PSQI总分均高于非负性情绪组(t=2.892,3.118,3.498;P<0.05)。结论:无子女亲友探访、慢性脑血管疾病、重度失能可能增加医养结合机构失能老人负性情绪风险,且失能老人的负性情绪与睡眠质量存在密切联系。

基于Cobb-Douglas及递归效用函数的养老金最优资产配置策略研究

研究考虑长寿趋势的目标收益型养老金的最优投资和收益调整问题.采用改进的死亡力模型,将养老金计划参与者的长寿趋势引入养老金的决策管理问题中.以期望效用最大为优化准则,建立随机控制模型,其中效用函数分别采用Cobb-Douglas效用函数以及递归效用函数.针对金融市场模型不确定的特点,采用鲁棒方法求解最优控制策略.运用动态规划方法,通过求解相应HJB(Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman)方程,得到值函数和控制策略的显式表达式.最后通过数值分析,给出两类效用下重要参数对最优控制策略的影响.

数字经济对企业养老保险缴费的影响研究

在人口老龄化背景下,促进企业养老保险遵从对于推动养老保险体系可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以2011—2019年A股上市企业为研究样本,在测度城市数字经济发展水平的基础上,考察数字经济发展对企业养老保险缴费的影响。研究发现,数字经济发展对企业养老保险缴费有显著促进作用。机制检验证实了数字经济发展促进企业养老保险缴费主要通过缓解融资约束、加大外部监督力度和提升劳动生产率三条路径实现。进一步分析表明,数字经济发展对企业养老保险缴费的促进作用在资本密集型、非国有和处于税务部门征收地区的企业中更为明显;数字经济发展通过提升养老保险基金结余和参保人数促进了养老保险基金可持续发展。本文结论为提升养老金可持续性,推动多层次养老保险体系发展提供了政策启示。

人口老龄化背景下我国5个少数民族自治区基本养老保险基金预测

[目的]对我国5个少数民族自治区的养老保险基金收支情况进行预测,为我国基本养老保险制度的可持续发展提供参考。[方法]采用Logistic人口模型预测2023-2030年劳动年龄人口和65岁及以上人口数并测算老年抚养比,运用灰色模型预测2023-2030年城乡居民基本养老保险基金的收支并测算基金结余。[结果]经测算,到2030年,广西的老年抚养比最高为30.34%;基金收入增幅最低的地区是西藏,为54.87%;基金支出增幅最高的地区是西藏,为91.27%;除西藏外,另外4个少数民族自治区基金结余均呈现上升趋势。[结论]现阶段我国5个少数民族自治区人口老龄化程度相对较轻,未来少数民族人口的年龄结构将进一步老化,城乡居民基本养老保险基金总体上呈现可持续发展趋势。

养老金融的内涵意蕴、驱动因素与关键举措

伴随着老年人对金融服务的迫切需求,养老金融已经从理念推向行动,成为积极应对人口老龄化、扎实推进共同富裕、推动高质量发展等国家战略的重要支撑。立足人口老龄化视域,结合当前养老金融发展中的现实问题,探讨了养老金融从理念到行动的内在机理与发展举措。首先梳理了养老金融的内涵意蕴,创新性归纳出养老金融的宏观论、微观论和组合论,并阐述了养老金融的“产业属性”“事业属性”及其蕴含的特殊使命和时代价值。其次分析了人口老龄化进程中发展养老金融的驱动因素,揭示了养老金融在应对潜在供养风险、老年抚养风险、养老金缺口风险以及推动银发经济高质量发展方面驱动作用的内在逻辑。最后从国家、社会和个人层面分别提出养老金融高质量发展的关键举措:深化金融供给侧改革,营造良好的老年人金融参与环境,包括以法治为根本的推动养老金融顶层设计、以市场为核心的释放政府综合协调作用、以监管促协调的推动养老金融有序发展;立足全生命周期,分阶段提升消费者金融素养水平,包括注重基础教育的引领作用、重点提升中青年群体金融素养水平、从正反两方面大力开展养老金融教育等;多渠道提高收入,打破养老金融参与的流动性约束,包括提高退休群体收入水平、拓宽老年人增收渠道、盘活老年人“僵尸资产”等。

农村留守老人养老意愿与健康养老研究综述

梳理相关研究发现,农村留守老人对家庭养老有强烈偏好,对多元化养老方式持开放态度,但健康养老状况较差,构建多层次、多元化的健康养老服务体系是现实选择。促进农村留守老人健康养老,建议从积极老龄化、健康老龄化视角拓展基础和理论研究,开展多学科综合交叉研究,加强对养老意愿的调查,促进健康养老模式创新发展与融合研究,优化健康养老实现路径研究以及深化国外养老保障理论民族化、本土化研究。

“铁饭碗”愿意延退吗?——体制内外劳动者延迟退休意愿差异研究

研究使用2011—2020年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,实证研究了编制对公共部门员工延迟退休意愿的影响,同时考察了这种影响的异质性并探讨可能的作用机制。结果显示,拥有编制会显著降低公共部门员工的延迟退休意愿,并且这种影响对男性、非农户籍与多子员工更为明显,对女性和农业户籍员工不显著;工资收入和养老保障是编制对公共部门员工延迟退休意愿影响的内在机制,拥有编制使得公共部门员工能够获得更高的工资收入及更加优渥的养老保障,从而降低其延迟退休意愿。据此,研究提出应通过精减编制、以女性和农业户籍员工为政策突破口、推动婴幼儿托育行业的发展缓解祖辈隔代照料负担、建立与延迟退休时长相挂钩的养老保障激励机制等方面,激发延迟退休潜力。

基本养老保险对青年劳动力生育意愿的影响——基于收入与替代效应交互视角的检验

依据中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,运用个体固定效应模型,考量基本养老保险对我国已婚青年劳动力生育意愿的影响。结果表明,基本养老保险显著促进了已婚青年劳动力的生育意愿;这一影响存在异质性,对36~45岁、男性、农村、家庭收入较低的青年劳动力生育意愿的促进作用更为明显;机制分析表明基本养老保险对生育意愿的替代效应不明显,而是通过提高生活幸福感和当期消费支出从而提升已婚青年劳动力的生育意愿,表现为显著的收入效应。鉴于此,需要注重基本养老保险制度和其他社会福利政策的配套和协调,从而有效释放生育需求,促进我国育龄劳动力生育意愿的提高。

养老保险政策改革与老年家庭财务脆弱性: 基于CHFS的经 验证据

依据中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,以2018年养老保险待遇水平调整的政策改革作为准自然实验,并运用双重差分模型,考量养老保险政策改革对老年家庭财务脆弱性的影响。结果表明,养老保险政策改革通过促进收入的增加、减缓养老风险和健康风险冲击力度,使得老年家庭陷入财务脆弱性的概率下降5.61%。异质性分析显示,农村、有医疗保险以及需抚养子女数量少的老年家庭受到养老保险政策改革的影响程度更大。鉴于此,应通过提高养老保险保障水平、实行更精细化的养老保险政策等方式,推动我国多层次社会保障体系的完善。

城乡老年人网络信息甄别能力及其影响因素——基于CLASS 2020调查数据的实证分析

提升老年人网络信息甄别能力已成为弥合数字鸿沟的重要举措。基于2020年中国老年社会追踪调查数据发现:老年人网络信息甄别能力整体水平不高,农村老年人网络信息甄别能力低于城镇老年人;年龄、文化水平、上网频率、生理健康、家庭收入水平、家庭上网指导、网络文化反哺,以及社会保障待遇、社区上网培训和上网咨询显著正向影响老年人网络信息甄别能力,其中家庭禀赋是影响老年人网络信息甄别能力最为关键的因素,社会资源次之。因此,提升老年人网络信息甄别能力需多元主体共同协作,发挥家庭成员“数字反哺”功能,加大社区老年网络信息甄别培训,并在社会层面促进城乡老年数字教育均衡发展。

Optimal investment for the defined-contribution pension with stochastic salary under a CEV model

In this paper, we study the optimal investment strategy of defined-contribution pension with the stochastic salary. The investor is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process follows a constant elasticity of variance model. The stochastic salary follows a stochastic differential equation, whose instantaneous volatility changes with the risky asset price all the time. The HJB equation associated with the optimal investment problem is established, and the explicit solution of the corresponding optimization problem for the CARA utility function is obtained by applying power transform and variable change technique. Finally, we present a numerical analysis.

Analysis and Research on Information Design of the Smart Community Pension Service

In the research on the smart community pension service,it is found that the problems encountered in the promotion of the smart pension can not be solved in the short term because of the lack of information and the acceptance of the intelligent products by the elderly. This paper puts forward the research ideas based on the cognitive characteristics and demand prediction of the specific population. Focusing on the research on the pension needs of people born in the 1960 s or 1970 s,it provides support for the solution of smart pension services in the peak period of aging population in the future.

Study on Reasonable Premium Rate of Pension Insurance in China

By analyzing the cause of too high premium rate of pension insurance at present and discussing the current practice of Chinese Pension Insurance System, three models to determine the reasonable paying level of premium, returning level of retirement pay and premium rate are established. Comparatively speaking, these models solve the problem of the determination of the premium rate more scientifically and offer an effective analyzing means to the improvement of the Chinese Pension Insurance System.

Study on Improving Development Strategies of New Rural Social Pension Insurance System in Heilongjiang Province

Since 2009, the new rural pension insurance in Heilongjiang Province has obtained certain achievements, but the effects are not obvious. Reflection on the development process, we find that there are a lot of problems. Therefore, in order to guarantee the smooth implementation of new rural social pension insurance work in Heilongjiang Province, this paper combined with the reality to provide several suggestions for improving the new rural social pension insurance system in Heilongjiang Province.

Sensitivity of Personal Account Accumulated Value of New Rural Social Pension Insurance to Variation of Uncertainties

The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.

The factors that affect the participation of social organizations in pension service are analyzed

At present, the aging situation of China＇s population is becoming more and more serious. By the end of 2016, there were 231 million people over the age of 60 in China, accounting for 16.7% of the total population. About 150 million people aged 65 and over make up 10.8 percent of the total population. China is expected to enter the peak period of population aging by 2035. Therefore, the government as a single pension service main body management pattern already can not adapt to our country entered the aging society, mobilize and fostering social organizations to participate in the pension services is to build perfect endowment service system, satisfy people pension service demand model of a kind of indispensable. In view of the development of social organizations has just started in our country, there exist many problems and difficulties, so this article USES the ISM method, for social organizations to participate in research and analyze influence factors of pension services, and then find out the social organization in the process of participation in pension service problems, put forward effective solutions.

Distinguish between Defined-benefit and Defined-contribution Pension Schemes

According to the data from IFSL(International Financial Services, London), Pension funds increased rapidly in recent year. Pension funds always have different ways to build up. One form always from the institutional investment and the funds will build up during the working life by the worker's company and then workers use the funds as the retirement income during workers retired. Alternatively some employees invest in a fund of their choosing and the money can be used to buy an annuity to obtain the pension funds. For this form, one of the important forms of stock market investments of pension funds is shares and bonds.

Net Pension Liability Impact on School Districts after Incorporation of Governmental Accounting Standards Boards (GASB) Statement Number 68

This paper analyzes twenty school districts in the state of Pennsylvania and applies ratio analysis to understand the potential effect of GASB number 68 on the financial statements of these entities.The financial statements were picked on a random basis from the Electronic Municipal Market Access[1]database.EMMA is a research and data retrieval system of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board(MSRB).The MSRB provides resources to trade municipal bonds and access to the financial statements of entities selling these securities.The paper was developed as a result of the requirement by GASB to“recognize their long-term obligation for pension benefits as a liability for the first time,and to more comprehensively and comparably measure the annual costs of pension benefits”[2].The public schools in Pennsylvania incorporated GASB number 68 for the fiscal year ended June 30,2015 and restated the financial statements for the fiscal year ended June 30,2014.The effects of these restatements created a situation where most of these districts now show a negative fund balance caused by an increase of liabilities of over one hundred percent.Many of the decision makers are uncertain of the long-term changes that this recognition will have on the operations of the school district.Bond ratings have suffered because of the volatility and uncertainty causing negative effects on the balance sheet,increased current recognition of pension expenses,and a possible interest rate increase.All of these effects are illustrated in this paper.This is at a time where many people are questioning the performance of many of the school districts.