Spatial-Temporal Variations of Dominant Drought/Flood Modes and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Ocean Events in Rainy Season over the East of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the 'Silk Road' teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENT DROUGHT/FLOOD EVENTS IN SUMMER OVER THE TWO-LAKE REGION OF CHINA

Based on the daily regional mean rainfall,the Z-index method is used to identify persistent flood and drought events lasting for at least 10 days over a region where Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sit(referred to as the"two-lake region"hereafter).The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)reanalysis data are then utilized to perform a preliminary diagnostic analysis on these events.The results indicate that the composite standardized geopotential height at 500 hPa presents two different meridional wave trains from north to south over the East Asian-Pacific region,i.e.,a"-+-"pattern for the droughts and a"+-+"pattern for the floods,respectively.The developing,maintaining and decaying phases in the drought and flood events are closely related to the intensity and location of a subtropical high and an extra-tropical blocking high.It is shown that the East Asian summer monsoon is strong(weak)with the occurrence of persistent drought(flood)events.Droughts(floods)are accompanied by a weak(strong)tropical convergent system and a strong(weak)subtropical convergent system.Furthermore,the persistent drought(flood)events are associated with a divergence(convergence)of vertically integrated water vapor flux.In the vertical profile of water vapor flux,divergence(convergence)in the mid-and lower-levels and convergence(divergence)in the higher levels are evident in the droughts(floods).Both the divergence in the droughts and the convergence in floods are strongest at 850 hPa.

THE KUROSHIO MEANDER/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONNECTION AND DROUGHT/FLOOD CYCLES IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

In response to a suggestion that the large meander of the Kuroshio is a good predictor of droughtsin the Changjiang River Valley, it is argued that more recent inceptions of the meander lend statisticalweigh to the belief that the large meander is itself a consequence of E1 Nino, and hence of the SouthernOscillation. The meander usually lags. Thus, if the meander reliably predicts droughts, the Tahiti componentof the Southern Oscillation will usually give six months’ extra warning.

Reconstruction of the Rainfall in Rainy Season Based on Historical Drought/Flood Grades

On the basis of historical yearly drought and flood grades from A.D.1470 to A.D.1949, the ten-year mean precipitation in the rainy season in Wuhan district was reconstructed by means of statistical method. The reconstructing method was testified to be simple and effective.

SPATIAL/TEMPORAL FEATURES OF DROUGHT/FLOOD IN FUJIAN FOR THE PAST FOUR DECADES

41 a （1961 - 2001） seasonal Z index series of 25 representative weather stations are investigated by virtue of EOF, FFT, continuous wavelet transformation （CWT） and orthogonai wavelet transformation （OWT）. It shows that： （1） Fujian drought/flood （DF） has a significant 2 - 3a cycle for the periods 1965 - 1975 and 1990＇s; （2） the pattern, which represents the opposite DF trend between the southern and northem parts, has la and 3 - 4a cycles since the middle of 1980＇s; （3） EOF3, which denotes the reverse change between the middle-west region and other areas, has significant 1 - 2a cycle for the period from 1985 to 1998 and 9 - 13a cycle since 1980s; （4） there is an obvious drought trend for the last 40a （especially in the 1990＇s）, which is more outstanding in the south （east） than in the north （west）; （5） the 1960＇s and 1980＇s are in relatively wet phases and the 1970＇s and 1990＇s are in drought spells.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF LARGE VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE WORLD AND THE SUMMER DROUGHT/FLOOD IN CHINA

Based on data in the last 500 years for strong volwtc aedvity and the sununer drought/flood types available in China, the statistical relatons 0f the volcanic eruptions in seasons and several ropons and the drowtood types and grade index of main wions in China have ban inveStigned. The possible teleconnection bforan flood in the Yangtze hiver and the Huaihe foveL Valleys in 1991 and the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June of 1991 has bam also exathened. It is found that ehas of volcanic eruption in differen ropons in the worid vary on droguood in diffend edons of China, but in some cases the the is absolutely opposite in respect of the summer drowood. Statshcal test shows that in terms of stud confidence levels of the reation for dividing the volcanic eruptions as several ropons are higher than that for volcanic eruPhon in the worid as Whole.

基于SWMM和LISFLOOD-FP的城市内涝耦合模型研究

以柳州市箭盘山流域为例,构建SWMM一维管道模型与LISFLOOD-FP二维地面模型并将其耦合,基于实测降雨“20180818”24 h暴雨资料,将得到的暴雨内涝淹没水深和淹没面积与该场次降雨情况下记录淹没点的范围相比较,验证耦合模型具有较好的适用性。进而基于耦合模型,对柳州市箭盘山流域2、5、10、20年一遇下设计降雨进行模拟,得到不同重现期下研究区的溢流节点、淹没水深和淹没面积,并于ARCGIS平台将结果可视化。结果表明,重现期由2年上升到20年过程中,溢流节点比例从9.03%增加至25.99%,溢流面积从0.473 km^(2)增加至2.114 km^(2);重点淹没区域分布在屏山大道、炮团路、西江路和东堤路。

Causes of a Typical Southern Flood and Northern Drought Event in 2015 over Eastern China

The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.

The Response of Anomalous Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Patterns Related to Drought and Flood in Southern China to Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Shandong Province,China and Their Relationship with Food Loss

Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.

Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

基于MIKE FLOOD耦合模型模拟的城市内涝对道路安全风险的影响评估

城市内涝风险评估对预防洪涝灾害有重要作用,但现有研究很少针对道路安全风险评估。以重庆市秀山县为研究对象,通过构建MIKE FLOOD耦合模型对道路安全风险进行评估。结果表明:地面积水深度主要集中在0.05~0.15 m,不同重现期(P=1%~20%)降雨下的水深在空间分布上大体呈一致状态,积水时间主要集中在60~90 min,积水流速主要大于0.8 m/s。其中,老城区部分区域的基础设施安全风险以极高风险(水深>0.4 m)为主,其余区域为轻微风险(水深<0.5 m)为主,而行人安全风险以Ⅲ级(危险性指数1.25~2)为主,其余区域则以Ⅰ级(危险性指数<0.75)为主。大部分路段的交通运行状况以畅通等级(保留系数>0.7)为主,但部分路段遇暴雨时中断(保留系数=0)。研究结果可为城市内涝发生前的交通管控和通行预警提供科学依据。

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Characterization and Propagation of Historical and Projected Droughts in the Umatilla River Basin, Oregon, USA

Climate change is expected to have long-term impacts on drought and wildfire risks in Oregon as summers continue to become warmer and drier. This paper investigates the projected changes in drought characteristics and drought propagation in the Umatilla River Basin in northeastern Oregon for mid-century(2030–2059) and late-century(2070–2099) climate scenarios. Drought characteristics for projected climates were determined using downscaled CMIP5 climate datasets from ten climate models and Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate effects on hydrologic processes. Short-term(three months) drought characteristics(frequency, duration, and severity) were analyzed using four drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI-3), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-3), Standardized Streamflow Index(SSI-3), and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI-3). Results indicate that short-term meteorological droughts are projected to become more prevalent, with up to a 20% increase in the frequency of SPI-3drought events. Short-term hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 11% in frequency of SSI-3 drought events), more severe, and longer in duration(average increase of 8% for short-term droughts).Similarly, short-term agricultural droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 28% in frequency of SSMI-3 drought events) but slightly shorter in duration(average decrease of 4%) in the future. Historically, drought propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought is shorter than from meteorological to agricultural drought in most sub-basins. For the projected climate scenarios, the decrease in drought propagation time will likely stress the timing and capacity of water supply in the basin for irrigation and other uses.

Exogenous melatonin improves cotton yield under drought stress by enhancing root development and reducing root damage

The exogenous application of melatonin by the root drenching method is an effective way to improve crop drought resistance.However,the optimal concentration of melatonin by root drenching and the physiological mechanisms underlying melatonin-induced drought tolerance in cotton(Gossypium hirsutum L.)roots remain elusive.This study determined the optimal concentration of melatonin by root drenching and explored the protective effects of melatonin on cotton roots.The results showed that 50μmol L-1 melatonin was optimal and significantly mitigated the inhibitory effect of drought on cotton seedling growth.Exogenous melatonin promoted root development in drought-stressed cotton plants by remarkably increasing the root length,projected area,surface area,volume,diameter,and biomass.Melatonin also mitigated the drought-weakened photosynthetic capacity of cotton and regulated the endogenous hormone contents by regulating the relative expression levels of hormone-synthesis genes under drought stress.Melatonin-treated cotton seedlings maintained optimal enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant capacities,and produced relatively lower levels of reactive oxygen species and malondialdehyde,thus reducing the drought stress damage to cotton roots(such as mitochondrial damage).Moreover,melatonin alleviated the yield and fiber length declines caused by drought stress.Taken together,these findings show that root drenching with exogenous melatonin increases the cotton yield by enhancing root development and reducing the root damage induced by drought stress.In summary,these results provide a foundation for the application of melatonin in the field by the root drenching method.

Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Overexpression of the transcription factor MdWRKY115 improves drought and osmotic stress tolerance by directly binding to the MdRD22 promoter in apple

Abiotic stress reduces plant yield and quality.WRKY transcription factors play key roles in abiotic stress responses in plants,but the molecular mechanisms by which WRKY transcription factors mediate responses to drought and osmotic stresses in apple(Malus×domestica Borkh.)remain unclear.Here,we functionally characterized the apple GroupⅢWRKY gene MdWRKY115.qRT-PCR analysis showed that MdWRKY115 expression was up-regulated by drought and osmotic stresses.GUS activity analysis revealed that the promoter activity of MdWRKY115 was enhanced under osmotic stress.Subcellular localization and transactivation assays indicated that MdWRKY115 was localized to the nucleus and had a transcriptional activity domain at the N-terminal region.Transgenic analysis revealed that the overexpression of MdWRKY115 in Arabidopsis plants and in apple callus markedly enhanced their tolerance to drought and osmotic stresses.DNA affinity purification sequencing showed that MdWRKY115 binds to the promoter of the stress-related gene MdRD22.This binding was further verified by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay.Collectively,these findings suggest that MdWRKY115 is an important regulator of osmotic and drought stress tolerance in apple.

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Variation Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Deyang Area in the Past 30 years

Based on the data of annual average precipitation in Deyang area and its five stations (Mianzhu, Deyang, Zhongjiang, Shifang and Guanghan) from 1984 to 2013, the annual precipitation anomaly percentage was calculated, and then the flood and drought situation in Deyang area was graded to discuss the variation characteristics of droughts and floods in the past 30 years. The results show that the cycle of droughts and floods in Deyang was about 3-5 a. The precipitation anomaly percentage indicates that the climate in Deyang area of Sichuan tended to be dry slowly in the past 30 years, and Deyang gradually entered a dry and warm period.

Grain Yield,Biomass Accumulation,and Leaf Photosynthetic Characteristics of Rice under Combined Salinity-Drought Stress

Simultaneous stresses of salinity and drought often coincide during rice-growing seasons in saline lands,primarily due to insufficient water resources and inadequate irrigation facilities.Consequently,combined salinity-drought stress poses a major threat to rice production.In this study,two salinity levels(NS,non-salinity;HS,high salinity)along with three drought treatments(CC,control condition;DJ,drought stress imposed at jointing;DH,drought stress imposed at heading)were performed to investigate their combined influences on leaf photosynthetic characteristics,biomass accumulation,and rice yield formation.Salinity,drought,and their combination led to a shortened growth period from heading to maturity,resulting in a reduced overall growth duration.Grain yield was reduced under both salinity and drought stress,with a more substantial reduction under the combined salinity-drought stress.The combined stress imposed at heading caused greater yield losses in rice compared with the stress imposed at jointing.Additionally,the combined salinity-drought stress induced greater decreases in shoot biomass accumulation from heading to maturity,as well as in shoot biomass and nonstructural carbohydrate(NSC)content in the stem at heading and maturity.However,it increased the harvest index and NSC remobilization reserve.Salinity and drought reduced the leaf area index and SPAD value of flag leaves and weakened the leaf photosynthetic characteristics as indicated by lower photosynthetic rates,transpiration rates,and stomatal conductance.These reductions were more pronounced under the combined stress.Salinity,drought,and especially their combination,decreased the activities of ascorbate peroxidase,catalase,and superoxide dismutase,while increasing the contents of malondialdehyde,hydrogen peroxide,and superoxide radical.Our results indicated a more significant yield loss in rice when subjected to combined salinity-drought stress.The individual and combined stresses of salinity and drought diminished antioxidant enzyme activities,inhibited leaf photosynthetic functions,accelerated leaf senescence,and subsequently lowered assimilate accumulation and grain yield.