Identifying influential nodes in complex networks is still an open issue. In this paper, a new comprehensive centrality mea- sure is proposed based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The existing measures of degr...Identifying influential nodes in complex networks is still an open issue. In this paper, a new comprehensive centrality mea- sure is proposed based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The existing measures of degree centrality, betweenness centra- lity and closeness centrality are taken into consideration in the proposed method. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, d...The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.展开更多
Land cover classification is the core of converting satellite imagery to available geographic data.However,spectral signatures do not always provide enough information in classification decisions.Thus,the application ...Land cover classification is the core of converting satellite imagery to available geographic data.However,spectral signatures do not always provide enough information in classification decisions.Thus,the application of multi-source data becomes necessary.This paper presents an evidential reasoning (ER) approach to incorporate Landsat TM imagery,altitude and slope data.Results show that multi-source data contribute to the classification accuracy achieved by the ER method,whereas play a negative role to that derived by maximum likelihood classifier (MLC).In comparison to the results derived based on TM imagery alone,the overall accuracy rate of the ER method increases by 7.66% and that of the MLC method decreases by 8.35% when all data sources (TM plus altitude and slope) are accessible.The ER method is regarded as a better approach for multi-source image classification.In addition,the method produces not only an accurate classification result,but also the uncertainty which presents the inherent difficulty in classification decisions.The uncertainty associated to the ER classification image is evaluated and proved to be useful for improved classification accuracy.展开更多
In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncerta...In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment(PRA). Fault trees(FTs) and event trees(ETs) were transformed into an EN which is used as a uniform framework to represent accident scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties of basic events in PRA were presented in evidence theory form and propagated through the network. A case study of a highway tunnel risk analysis was discussed to demonstrate the proposed approach. Frequencies of end states are obtained and expressed by belief and plausibility measures. The proposed approach addresses the uncertainties in experts' knowledge and can be easily applied to uncertainty analysis of FTs/ETs that have dependent events.展开更多
Bayesian statistics assigns basic probabilities to singletons (single element sets). The Dempster-Shafer evidence theory generalizes Bayesian statistics by assigning basic probabilities to subsets to represent evidenc...Bayesian statistics assigns basic probabilities to singletons (single element sets). The Dempster-Shafer evidence theory generalizes Bayesian statistics by assigning basic probabilities to subsets to represent evidence and to develop evidential reasoning. This paper discusses what is the strength of evidence theory. As an application of evidence theory, evidential reasoning in air battle systems is discussed. In the air battle system, evidential reasoning is applied to fuse the multisensor information and identify the type of aircraft. The effectiveness of this fusion approach is evaluated by simulated data.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61174022)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(2013AA013801)+2 种基金the Open Funding Project of State Key Laboratory of Virtual Reality Technology and Systems,Beihang University(BUAA-VR-14KF-02)the General Research Program of the Science Supported by Sichuan Provincial Department of Education(14ZB0322)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(XDJK2014D008)
文摘Identifying influential nodes in complex networks is still an open issue. In this paper, a new comprehensive centrality mea- sure is proposed based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The existing measures of degree centrality, betweenness centra- lity and closeness centrality are taken into consideration in the proposed method. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51190094,50909073,and 51179130)the Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2010CDB08401)
文摘The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40871188)Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.INFO-115-C01-SDB4-05)
文摘Land cover classification is the core of converting satellite imagery to available geographic data.However,spectral signatures do not always provide enough information in classification decisions.Thus,the application of multi-source data becomes necessary.This paper presents an evidential reasoning (ER) approach to incorporate Landsat TM imagery,altitude and slope data.Results show that multi-source data contribute to the classification accuracy achieved by the ER method,whereas play a negative role to that derived by maximum likelihood classifier (MLC).In comparison to the results derived based on TM imagery alone,the overall accuracy rate of the ER method increases by 7.66% and that of the MLC method decreases by 8.35% when all data sources (TM plus altitude and slope) are accessible.The ER method is regarded as a better approach for multi-source image classification.In addition,the method produces not only an accurate classification result,but also the uncertainty which presents the inherent difficulty in classification decisions.The uncertainty associated to the ER classification image is evaluated and proved to be useful for improved classification accuracy.
基金Project(71201170)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment(PRA). Fault trees(FTs) and event trees(ETs) were transformed into an EN which is used as a uniform framework to represent accident scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties of basic events in PRA were presented in evidence theory form and propagated through the network. A case study of a highway tunnel risk analysis was discussed to demonstrate the proposed approach. Frequencies of end states are obtained and expressed by belief and plausibility measures. The proposed approach addresses the uncertainties in experts' knowledge and can be easily applied to uncertainty analysis of FTs/ETs that have dependent events.
基金Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education,China(No.20060183041)
文摘Bayesian statistics assigns basic probabilities to singletons (single element sets). The Dempster-Shafer evidence theory generalizes Bayesian statistics by assigning basic probabilities to subsets to represent evidence and to develop evidential reasoning. This paper discusses what is the strength of evidence theory. As an application of evidence theory, evidential reasoning in air battle systems is discussed. In the air battle system, evidential reasoning is applied to fuse the multisensor information and identify the type of aircraft. The effectiveness of this fusion approach is evaluated by simulated data.
