An important new development in hydrological data analysis in the last decade is the application of wavelet analysis. Here, wave- let theory is used to study the complexity and multi-scale periodicity of the hydrologi...An important new development in hydrological data analysis in the last decade is the application of wavelet analysis. Here, wave- let theory is used to study the complexity and multi-scale periodicity of the hydrological time series of the Dalai Lake Basin in In- ner Mongolia. Two large rivers, the Kelulun and the Wurxun, are the main inflows to Dalai Lake, which is currently shrinking. The annual and monthly flows of the Kelultm River are shown to vary more than those of the Wurxun River, and the monthly flows of the two rivers vary much more than their annual flows. Db5 wavelets are shown to be more suitable for annual flow cal- culations, whereas Db4 wavelets are more suitable for monthly flow calculations. Multi-scale wavelet analysis of the annual and monthly flows of the Kelulun and Wurxun rivers shows that the variation of the two rivers is similar and has a 25-year cycle, 12 years of wet and 12 years of drought periods, and our results show that both rivers are expected to transition into a wet period be- ginning in 2012. Therefore, the Dalai Lake Basin, which has been in a drought period since 2000, is expected to gradually transit into a wet period from 2012 onward.展开更多
条件价值法(Contingent Value Method,CVM)是评估生态旅游资源非使用价值的主要方法,但CVM自身存在的一系列缺点导致在评估过程中会产生很多抗议性回复,因而如何处理抗议性回复成为一个焦点问题。以往研究大多直接从总体中去除抗议性回...条件价值法(Contingent Value Method,CVM)是评估生态旅游资源非使用价值的主要方法,但CVM自身存在的一系列缺点导致在评估过程中会产生很多抗议性回复,因而如何处理抗议性回复成为一个焦点问题。以往研究大多直接从总体中去除抗议性回复,这种处理方法会降低CVM评估的有效性和可靠性。本文尝试性地引入了一种新的生态旅游资源价值评估方法——审议货币评估法(Deliberative Monetary Valuation,DMV)。通过审议货币评估法(DMV)和条件价值法(CVM)评估了达赉湖自然保护区生态旅游资源的非使用价值,研究结果表明:(1)CVM的抗议性回复为30.6%,而DMV的抗议性回复仅为8.5%,DMV显著减少了抗议性回复(减少了72.2%);(2)被调查者抗议性回复的产生不完全受到被调查者所获得信息的影响,还会受到被调查者的价值观、支付方式等因素的影响;(3)CVM被调查者对于保护区生态旅游资源的平均支付意愿为39元(N=154),DMV被调查者的平均支付意愿为51元(N=86),DMV增加了积极支付意愿比例,从而提高了被调查者的WTP。展开更多
基金supported by the project"Ecohydrological process modeling of Dalai Lake Basin under different grazing system" granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51169011)
文摘An important new development in hydrological data analysis in the last decade is the application of wavelet analysis. Here, wave- let theory is used to study the complexity and multi-scale periodicity of the hydrological time series of the Dalai Lake Basin in In- ner Mongolia. Two large rivers, the Kelulun and the Wurxun, are the main inflows to Dalai Lake, which is currently shrinking. The annual and monthly flows of the Kelultm River are shown to vary more than those of the Wurxun River, and the monthly flows of the two rivers vary much more than their annual flows. Db5 wavelets are shown to be more suitable for annual flow cal- culations, whereas Db4 wavelets are more suitable for monthly flow calculations. Multi-scale wavelet analysis of the annual and monthly flows of the Kelulun and Wurxun rivers shows that the variation of the two rivers is similar and has a 25-year cycle, 12 years of wet and 12 years of drought periods, and our results show that both rivers are expected to transition into a wet period be- ginning in 2012. Therefore, the Dalai Lake Basin, which has been in a drought period since 2000, is expected to gradually transit into a wet period from 2012 onward.
文摘条件价值法(Contingent Value Method,CVM)是评估生态旅游资源非使用价值的主要方法,但CVM自身存在的一系列缺点导致在评估过程中会产生很多抗议性回复,因而如何处理抗议性回复成为一个焦点问题。以往研究大多直接从总体中去除抗议性回复,这种处理方法会降低CVM评估的有效性和可靠性。本文尝试性地引入了一种新的生态旅游资源价值评估方法——审议货币评估法(Deliberative Monetary Valuation,DMV)。通过审议货币评估法(DMV)和条件价值法(CVM)评估了达赉湖自然保护区生态旅游资源的非使用价值,研究结果表明:(1)CVM的抗议性回复为30.6%,而DMV的抗议性回复仅为8.5%,DMV显著减少了抗议性回复(减少了72.2%);(2)被调查者抗议性回复的产生不完全受到被调查者所获得信息的影响,还会受到被调查者的价值观、支付方式等因素的影响;(3)CVM被调查者对于保护区生态旅游资源的平均支付意愿为39元(N=154),DMV被调查者的平均支付意愿为51元(N=86),DMV增加了积极支付意愿比例,从而提高了被调查者的WTP。
