Correlation Analysis of Gridding of Earthquakes in Datong and Its Surrounding Areas and Implication for Earthquake Prediction

On the basis of the earthquake （gL I〉3.0） catalog in North China from 1970 to 2009, the pattern of temporal and spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas is studied by correlation analysis with a focus on its anomaly before moderate and strong earthquakes. With different spatial scales, temporal scales and time steps, the spatial distribution of earthquakes is converted to a sequence, then the correlation coefficients between the spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in a long-term and a longer time are calculated for the analysis of anomalies before moderate and strong earthquakes. In the study region center on the epicenter of the 1989 Datong- Yanggao earthquake （Ms5. 9） within a radius of less than 0.8~, with the time length of 3600 days, the longer time length of 3700 days, and the time step of 100 days, the correlation coefficient from 1980 to 2009 is steady between 0.94 and 1.00, but there were anomalies with values less than 0. 94 in the 2 years before the 1989 Datong-Yanggao earthquake （Ms 5.9）, the 1991 Datong earthquake （ Ms 5.8） and 1999 Hunyuan earthquake （Ms 5. 6 ）, which indicates the spatial distribution of a medium-small earthquake is very different from steady background seismicity. The implication for earthquake prediction from the anomaly of the correlation coefficient is also discussed with the three conclusions： （1） Before moderate and strong earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas, the obvious change of spatial distribution patterns of medium-small earthquake can be a kind of seismic precursor of the 2-year time scale for the prediction of an earthquake＇s time. （2） As the study region is restricted within a radius of less than 0. 8~, the result of correlation analysis is also good for the prediction of an earthquake＇s location. （3） The method of correlation analysis in this paper helps recognize the anomaly of spatial distribution of medium-small earthquake.

The Datong earthquake and its anomalous tilt Field

In this paper, the similarity and the meanings of anomalous pattern of entropy for tilt tide amplitude factor, the distribution of entropy and dimension for tilt velocity, the similarity and relationships for long-period tilt deformation and earthquake migration are demonstrated. The deformation wave and its meanings have also been explained. The authors explored the relationships between distribution of similar pattern and epicenter. The possibility of prediction for next earthquake epicenter has also been explored based on the combining tilt field and earthquake activity.

Focal Fault of the 1999 Datong M_S5.6 Earthquake in Shanxi Province

Several earthquakes with M S≥5.0 occurred in the Datong seismic region in 1989, 1991 and 1999. The precise focus location of the earthquake sequence was made by the records of the remote sensing seismic station network in Datong. Using that data together with macro-intensity distribution and focal mechanism solutions, we analyze the difference among three subsequences. The results show that the focal fault of the 1999 M S5.6 earthquake was a NWW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault. It is 16 km long and 12 km wide. It developed at the depth of 5 km and is nearly vertical in dip. The two previous earthquake subsequences, however, were generated by activity along NNE-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault. It can be found that the rupture direction of the 1999 earthquake has changed. It is generally found that a rupture zone has more than two directions and has different strength along these two directions. The complicate degree of focal circumstance is related to the type of earthquake sequences. There is the NE-trending Dawangcun fault and the NW-trending Tuanbu fault in the seismic region, but no proof indicates a connection between focal faults and these two tectonic faults. The feature that focal faults of three subsequences are strike-slip is different from that of the two tectonic faults. It is suggested that the 1999 earthquake subsequence was possibly generated by a new rupture.

Calculation of the parameters of georesistivi－ty anisotropy and case history of earthquake precursors

This paper has discussed the effective resistivity ellipse and the paradoxical phenomenon of anisotropy. Two cases have been discussed, namely: there are three measuring lines at arbitrary angles with one another and there are two mutually perpendicular measuring lines and an additional measurement of the transversal effective resistivity. For these cases, the paper has given the methods for quantitatively calculating the parameters of georesistivity anisotropy. The formulae given include those for calculating the azimuth (of the principal axis of minimum resistivity ρ 1, the average resistivity ( ρ 1ρ 3) 1/2 , (ρ 2ρ 3) 1/2 , and the anisotropy coefficient λ=(ρ 2/ρ 1 ) 1/2 . As a case history, the data observed by the Datong geoelectricity station have been processed with reference to the results of in situ resistivity measurement in media subjected to shear. The results of analysis have led to the following understandings. Before and after the Datong M S6.1 earthquake on October 19, 1989, the abnormal rise of NE trending georesistivity and abnormal fall of NW trending georesistivity observed at the Datong and Yangyuan stations were caused by the pure shear acting on the medium. The major principal compression was in NE direction, which made an acute angle with the strike of the seismic fault plane, and thus there was a greater shear stress but very small normal stress so that the fault was likely to slide but the earthquake was only of moderate magnitude. The states of stress in medium were the same before and after earthquake and therefore the georesistivity precursor was of the same sign as that of co seismic variations.