Diagnostic errors are prevalent in critical care practice and are associated with patient harm and costs for providers and the healthcare system.Patient complexity,illness severity,and the urgency in initiating proper...Diagnostic errors are prevalent in critical care practice and are associated with patient harm and costs for providers and the healthcare system.Patient complexity,illness severity,and the urgency in initiating proper treatment all contribute to decision-making errors.Clinician-related factors such as fatigue,cognitive overload,and inexperience further interfere with effective decision-making.Cognitive science has provided insight into the clinical decision-making process that can be used to reduce error.This evidence-based review discusses ten common misconceptions regarding critical care decision-making.By understanding how practitioners make clinical decisions and examining how errors occur,strategies may be developed and implemented to decrease errors in Decision-making and improve patient outcomes.展开更多
使用世界气象组织季节内至季节尺度(Subseasonal to Seasonal,S2S)预测项目数据库评估了多个集合预报系统在S2S时间尺度对台风的预报能力。评估的时间段为1999—2010年期间每年5月1日—10月31日。为评估S2S时间尺度台风的预报技巧,使用...使用世界气象组织季节内至季节尺度(Subseasonal to Seasonal,S2S)预测项目数据库评估了多个集合预报系统在S2S时间尺度对台风的预报能力。评估的时间段为1999—2010年期间每年5月1日—10月31日。为评估S2S时间尺度台风的预报技巧,使用了台风密集度来描述台风的生成及移动状况。台风密集度定义为一段时间内500 km范围内台风出现的概率。台风密集度由6个S2S集合预报系统后报结果计算得出,它们分别由BoM、CMA、ECMWF、JMA、CNRM和NCEP开发使用。这6个预报系统台风密集度的预报技巧评分表明,当预报时效为11~30天时,ECMWF预报系统的评分为正值,比基于气候状态的参考预报能略好地预报台风。展开更多
The original algorithm for the 2-D debiased converted-measurement Kalman filter (CMKF) specified, with incorrect mathematical justification, a requirement for evaluating the average true bias and covari-ance with the ...The original algorithm for the 2-D debiased converted-measurement Kalman filter (CMKF) specified, with incorrect mathematical justification, a requirement for evaluating the average true bias and covari-ance with the best available polar estimate, rather than exclusively with the polar measurement. Even though this original algorithm yields better tracking performance than the debiased-CMKF algorithm which evaluates the average true bias and covariance exclusively with the polar measurement, this paper shows the specified requirement compromises the statistical consistency between the debiased converted measurement’s error and the average true covariance. To resolve this apparent contradiction, this paper provides the correct empirical explanation for the tracking-performance improvement obtained by the specified requirement.展开更多
In this paper,the authors propose a two-stage online debiased lasso estimation and statistical inference method for high-dimensional quantile regression(QR)models in the presence of streaming data.In the first stage,t...In this paper,the authors propose a two-stage online debiased lasso estimation and statistical inference method for high-dimensional quantile regression(QR)models in the presence of streaming data.In the first stage,the authors modify the QR score function based on kernel smoothing and obtain the online lasso smoothed QR estimator through iterative algorithms.The estimation process only involves the current data batch and specific historical summary statistics,which perfectly accommodates to the special structure of streaming data.In the second stage,an online debiasing procedure is carried out to eliminate biases caused by the lasso penalty as well as the accumulative approximation error so that the asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator can be established.The authors conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.These experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and support the theoretical results.An application to the Beijing PM2.5 Dataset is also presented.展开更多
文摘Diagnostic errors are prevalent in critical care practice and are associated with patient harm and costs for providers and the healthcare system.Patient complexity,illness severity,and the urgency in initiating proper treatment all contribute to decision-making errors.Clinician-related factors such as fatigue,cognitive overload,and inexperience further interfere with effective decision-making.Cognitive science has provided insight into the clinical decision-making process that can be used to reduce error.This evidence-based review discusses ten common misconceptions regarding critical care decision-making.By understanding how practitioners make clinical decisions and examining how errors occur,strategies may be developed and implemented to decrease errors in Decision-making and improve patient outcomes.
文摘使用世界气象组织季节内至季节尺度(Subseasonal to Seasonal,S2S)预测项目数据库评估了多个集合预报系统在S2S时间尺度对台风的预报能力。评估的时间段为1999—2010年期间每年5月1日—10月31日。为评估S2S时间尺度台风的预报技巧,使用了台风密集度来描述台风的生成及移动状况。台风密集度定义为一段时间内500 km范围内台风出现的概率。台风密集度由6个S2S集合预报系统后报结果计算得出,它们分别由BoM、CMA、ECMWF、JMA、CNRM和NCEP开发使用。这6个预报系统台风密集度的预报技巧评分表明,当预报时效为11~30天时,ECMWF预报系统的评分为正值,比基于气候状态的参考预报能略好地预报台风。
文摘The original algorithm for the 2-D debiased converted-measurement Kalman filter (CMKF) specified, with incorrect mathematical justification, a requirement for evaluating the average true bias and covari-ance with the best available polar estimate, rather than exclusively with the polar measurement. Even though this original algorithm yields better tracking performance than the debiased-CMKF algorithm which evaluates the average true bias and covariance exclusively with the polar measurement, this paper shows the specified requirement compromises the statistical consistency between the debiased converted measurement’s error and the average true covariance. To resolve this apparent contradiction, this paper provides the correct empirical explanation for the tracking-performance improvement obtained by the specified requirement.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.12271272。
文摘In this paper,the authors propose a two-stage online debiased lasso estimation and statistical inference method for high-dimensional quantile regression(QR)models in the presence of streaming data.In the first stage,the authors modify the QR score function based on kernel smoothing and obtain the online lasso smoothed QR estimator through iterative algorithms.The estimation process only involves the current data batch and specific historical summary statistics,which perfectly accommodates to the special structure of streaming data.In the second stage,an online debiasing procedure is carried out to eliminate biases caused by the lasso penalty as well as the accumulative approximation error so that the asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator can be established.The authors conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.These experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and support the theoretical results.An application to the Beijing PM2.5 Dataset is also presented.
