In the context of national governance,public finance is embedded into China’s economic,political,and social systems as a medium between various national subsystems.As such,fiscal sustainable development should be vie...In the context of national governance,public finance is embedded into China’s economic,political,and social systems as a medium between various national subsystems.As such,fiscal sustainable development should be viewed from a systematic and integrated perspective.This paper created an analytical framework consisting of three aspects:fiscal resource adequacy,institutional soundness and effectiveness,and external shocks.Chinese government has a relatively healthy balance sheet with adequate fiscal resources;however,it is faced with implicit debt risks and inefficiencies.China has initially established a basic fiscal framework with Chinese characteristics that are compatible with national governance,but problems remain in terms of fiscal responsibility,lawfulness,efficiency,fairness,and compatibility.When dealing with external shocks,policymakers should establish a clear fiscal policy rationale and approach based on the implications of fiscal sustainability.Fiscal sustainable development requires the strengthening of government capabilities to assess management and operation;thus,expanding available fiscal resources.Fiscal reforms should be expedited in order to create a modern fiscal system.Furthermore,a fiscal policy system should be developed and optimized according to the principles of fiscal sustainability in order to withstand external shocks.展开更多
Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local govern...Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.展开更多
In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing inter...In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.展开更多
This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cit...This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cities,and tries to capture the intrinsic link between land finance and leverage of non-financial listed companies.The study finds that the increase in local govermments'reliance on land finance will increase the probability of corporate overleverage.In the case of introducing control variables that may interfere with the cstimation results and using instrumental variables to alleviate the potential endogeneity,the conclusion remains robust.On this basis,this paper further studies the relationship between land finance and corporate solvency and sustainable development capability.It finds that the increase in reliance on land finance will increase the company's short-term solvency risk and future solvency pressure,while reducing the profitability and sustainability of overleveraged companies.This phenomenon is particulatly evident in high-leveraged companies such as real estate companies in regions with lower collateral value,state-owned enterprises,and enterprises in the eastem region.This paper provides a new perspective for further understanding of the high leverage among non-financial enterprises and the prevention and resolution of debt risks in the context of China's supply-side structural reform.展开更多
Due to the need of debt constraint and the fiscal policies issued,it’s possible that China will focus on the adoption of the MTEF(Medium-Term Expenditure Framework)and the MTEF will be one key reform field.Based on t...Due to the need of debt constraint and the fiscal policies issued,it’s possible that China will focus on the adoption of the MTEF(Medium-Term Expenditure Framework)and the MTEF will be one key reform field.Based on the data of 178 counties or regions from 1991 to 2008 published by the World Bank,this paper verifies the effectiveness of the MTEF adoption to the debt scale constraint and finds that the MTEF adoption can help reduce the government debt scale and the two basic levels of MTEF can play this role.What’s more,we conduct another empirical research to find out which factors can influence the MTEF upgrade(upgrade means developing from nonperformance of the MTEF to performance or from the initial stage of the MTEF to the advanced one),finding that the debt scale,the executing time of the MTEF,the regional influence,the support from some international organizations and the development degree have obvious effect on upgrade.Meanwhile,there are opposite effect direction in different debt scale.If the debt scale is above the International Warning Line of 60%,larger scale of debt will lead to MTEF level maintenance(no upgrade).Otherwise,if below the International Warning Line of 60%,larger scale of debt will help the MTEF to upgrade.展开更多
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the U.S.'s rating.Fear is spreading quickly through the market.It's becoming a vicious cycle and could feed into consumers reducing their dem...Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the U.S.'s rating.Fear is spreading quickly through the market.It's becoming a vicious cycle and could feed into consumers reducing their demand as well.Will it has a direct impact on Chinese textile and apparel exports?展开更多
基金supported by the General Program of the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)“Study on the Policy Design and Evaluation for the Prevention of Intergenerational Poverty Transmission through Education”(Grant No.18BJL123).
文摘In the context of national governance,public finance is embedded into China’s economic,political,and social systems as a medium between various national subsystems.As such,fiscal sustainable development should be viewed from a systematic and integrated perspective.This paper created an analytical framework consisting of three aspects:fiscal resource adequacy,institutional soundness and effectiveness,and external shocks.Chinese government has a relatively healthy balance sheet with adequate fiscal resources;however,it is faced with implicit debt risks and inefficiencies.China has initially established a basic fiscal framework with Chinese characteristics that are compatible with national governance,but problems remain in terms of fiscal responsibility,lawfulness,efficiency,fairness,and compatibility.When dealing with external shocks,policymakers should establish a clear fiscal policy rationale and approach based on the implications of fiscal sustainability.Fiscal sustainable development requires the strengthening of government capabilities to assess management and operation;thus,expanding available fiscal resources.Fiscal reforms should be expedited in order to create a modern fiscal system.Furthermore,a fiscal policy system should be developed and optimized according to the principles of fiscal sustainability in order to withstand external shocks.
文摘Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.
基金National Social Science Fund of China:“The Balance Coordination Mechanism of Local Government Debt Risk Prevention and Steady Growth under the Classified Limit Management”(17BJY169).
文摘In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.
基金National Social Science Fund Project" The Impact of Land Finance on the Real Economy and the Reconstruction of Corresponding Incentive System from the Perspective of Financial Instruments"(17BJL037).
文摘This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cities,and tries to capture the intrinsic link between land finance and leverage of non-financial listed companies.The study finds that the increase in local govermments'reliance on land finance will increase the probability of corporate overleverage.In the case of introducing control variables that may interfere with the cstimation results and using instrumental variables to alleviate the potential endogeneity,the conclusion remains robust.On this basis,this paper further studies the relationship between land finance and corporate solvency and sustainable development capability.It finds that the increase in reliance on land finance will increase the company's short-term solvency risk and future solvency pressure,while reducing the profitability and sustainability of overleveraged companies.This phenomenon is particulatly evident in high-leveraged companies such as real estate companies in regions with lower collateral value,state-owned enterprises,and enterprises in the eastem region.This paper provides a new perspective for further understanding of the high leverage among non-financial enterprises and the prevention and resolution of debt risks in the context of China's supply-side structural reform.
文摘Due to the need of debt constraint and the fiscal policies issued,it’s possible that China will focus on the adoption of the MTEF(Medium-Term Expenditure Framework)and the MTEF will be one key reform field.Based on the data of 178 counties or regions from 1991 to 2008 published by the World Bank,this paper verifies the effectiveness of the MTEF adoption to the debt scale constraint and finds that the MTEF adoption can help reduce the government debt scale and the two basic levels of MTEF can play this role.What’s more,we conduct another empirical research to find out which factors can influence the MTEF upgrade(upgrade means developing from nonperformance of the MTEF to performance or from the initial stage of the MTEF to the advanced one),finding that the debt scale,the executing time of the MTEF,the regional influence,the support from some international organizations and the development degree have obvious effect on upgrade.Meanwhile,there are opposite effect direction in different debt scale.If the debt scale is above the International Warning Line of 60%,larger scale of debt will lead to MTEF level maintenance(no upgrade).Otherwise,if below the International Warning Line of 60%,larger scale of debt will help the MTEF to upgrade.
文摘Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the U.S.'s rating.Fear is spreading quickly through the market.It's becoming a vicious cycle and could feed into consumers reducing their demand as well.Will it has a direct impact on Chinese textile and apparel exports?
