A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model for bidding purchase

A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bid- ding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans according to their experience and preferences, and these assessments may be expressed as linguistic terms, which are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The resulting decision matrices are then transformed to objective membership grade matrices. The lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction are used to determine each bidding plan’s supporting, opposing, and neutral objective sets, which together determine the vague value of a bidding plan. Finally, a score function is employed to rank all bidding plans. A new score function based on vague sets is introduced in the model and a novel method is presented for calculating the lower bound of sat- isfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction. In a vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model, different valua- tions for upper and lower bounds of satisfaction usually lead to distinct ranking results. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively contain DMs’ arbitrariness and subjectivity when these values are determined.

Modeling of cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making

An approach for modeling a human cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making is presented. The recognitive and metacognitive processes that represent the cognitive framework are modeled by the colored Petri nets （CPNs）. A structural and behavioral analysis method is adopted to obtain the static and dynamic property used to verify the CPNs model of the cognitive framework. Finally, an example from the command and control radar recognition system is used to evaluate the feasibility and availability of the CPNs model adopted in practical systems.

Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

Microscopic dynamic simulation model for pedestrian at signalized intersection

Pedestrian's road-crossing model is the key part of micro-simulation for mixed traffic at signalized intersection.To reproduce the crossing behavior of pedestrians,the microscopic behaviors of the pedestrians passing through the crosswalk at signalized intersection were analyzed.A pedestrian's decision making model based on gap acceptance theory was proposed.Based on the field data at three typical intersections in Beijing,China,the critical gaps and lags of pedestrians were calibrated.In addition,considering pedestrian's required space,a modification of the social force model that consists of a self-deceleration mechanism prevents a simulated pedestrian from continuously pushing over other pedestrians,making the simulation more realistic.After the simple change,the modified social force model is able to reproduce the fundamental diagram of pedestrian flows for densities less than 3.5 m-2 as reported in the literature.

Selection of Wind Turbine Systems for the Sultanate of Oman

The Sultanate of Oman has been dealing with a severe renewable energy issue for the past few decades,and the government has struggled to find a solution.In addition,Oman’s strategy for converting power generation to sources of renewable energy includes a goal of 60 percent of national energy demands being met by renewables by 2040,including solar and wind turbines.Furthermore,the use of small-scale energy from wind devices has been on the rise in recent years.This upward trend is attributed to advancements in wind turbine technology,which have lowered the cost of energy from wind.To calculate the internal and external factors that affect the small-scale energy of wind technologies,the study used a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution.As a result,in the decision model,four criteria,seventeen sub-criteria,and three resources of renewable energy were calculated as options from the viewpoint of the Sultanate of Oman.This research is based on an examination of statistics on energy produced by wind turbines at various locations in the Sultanate of Oman.Further,six distinct miniature wind turbines were investigated for four different locations.The outcomes of this study indicate that the tiny wind turbine has a lot of potential in the Sultanate of Oman for applications such as homes,schools,college campuses,irrigation,greenhouses,communities,and small businesses.The government should also use renewable energy resources to help with the renewable energy issue and make sure that the country has enough renewable energy for its long-term growth.

A Comparison of Three Surrogacy Agreement Cases Using AHP

This paper builds on the previous work of Knott, Ninassi and Eisenhardt＇s 2009 paper, ＂Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） to Look at the Tradeoffs Among Stakeholders in the Case of Surrogacy, when the Initial Intention of the Parties Involved Change After the Pregnancy Has Ensued＂. This paper proposes a new methodology for analyzing cases involving stakeholders in disputed surrogacy arrangement. The methodology utilized is the Analytic Hierarchy Process, which allows users to weigh different criteria based on their own opinions and background. Three case studies involved a surrogacy arrangement among three stakeholders： the biological mother, the biological father and the surrogate mother. The base for the model was that all parties had entered into an agreement, and that after the agreement had been made, a situation changed, such that a decision as to who had parental rights over the fetus became an issue. The criteria used in the decision making process in the three case studies were legal, health and ethical. The criteria differed based upon each stakeholder＇s point of view. In this paper, the three models were developed using the AI-tP methodology and judgments were gathered for each of the three cases to derive the priorities for the criteria in each model. Each author took the role of one of the three stakeholders.

Empirical Research on Carrying Capacity of Human Settlement System in Dalian City, Liaoning Province, China

Using the theories of population carrying capacity and ecological elasticity in other fields for reference, the connotation of regional human settlement system was defined from the viewpoint of the complex relationship among the factors such as regional population, resources, environment and economic and social development in the context of China′s rapid urbanization. Then the concept and characterization methods of the regional human settlement carrying capacity were proposed by means of population scale. Furthermore, a model of carrying capacity-pressure-state-response(CPSR) on regional human settlement system was established by referencing pressure-state-response(PSR) model, and the Catastrophe Theory was introduced to determine the corresponding standards of multi-criteria programming and evaluation. Taking Dalian City, Liaoning Province, China as an example, an empirical analysis on evaluation of human settlement system from 2000 to 2012 was carried out. The results showed that the carrying capacity of human settlement system in Dalian was fluctuating between 9.6 × 106 to 10 × 106 persons with a quantitative stage of the dynamic regulation. During the research period the load index of human settlement system in Dalian dropped from 0.96 to 0.84 with a lower pressure of human settlement system than the national average level. And the emergency response grades of human settlement system in Dalian were kept in grade Ⅱ(orange warning) or grade Ⅲ(yellow warning). Human settlement system of Dalian was in slight security state as a whole, but the load had a tendency of increase in recent years. The related departments should pay close attention to regional human settlement system and take active measures to improve human settlement by both intensity control and total quantity control. By comparison, analysis and discussion, it was considered that the results were basically accordded with the current situations of human settlement in Dalian, and the evaluation results were more reliable, visualized and easily applied in practice. Therefore, the above-mentioned concepts, characterization and evaluation methods of the regional human settlement system and carrying capacity could provide a new thought and method for quantitative evaluation of human settlement.

System failure analysis based on DEMATEL–ISM and FMECA

A new method of system failure analysis was proposed. First, considering the relationships between the failure subsystems,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the degree of correlation between the failure subsystems, analyze the combined effect of related failures, and obtain the degree of correlation by using the directed graph and matrix operations. Then, the interpretative structural modeling(ISM) method was combined to intuitively show the logical relationship of many failure subsystems and their influences on each other by using multilevel hierarchical structure model and obtaining the critical subsystems. Finally, failure mode effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to perform a qualitative hazard analysis of critical subsystems, determine the critical failure mode, and clarify the direction of reliability improvement.Through an example, the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be efficiently applied to system failure analysis problems.

Effect of Time Pressure at Tactical Level Managing Disaster

Introduction: Disaster management can face to emergency situation without any pre-sign and even if it has forecast they can meet the requirements of improvisation making their decision. Improvisation can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the time press is certainly the biggest problem. This article focuses on tactical level and shows some method to compensate time press. Method: Author studied relevant literatures and used own ex-perience as a firefighting manager. Other studies made by the author previously were also used. Results: Without time press disaster managers can use analytical thinking but in case of time press they must prefer critical thinking, satisfactory procedures or management by exceptions but creativity and heuristics are also used in their decision. Author created a complex model of decision making in emergency: building on prac-tical experience the above mechanisms together with the internal triggers hold as pillars the recognition-primed decisions on which locate the principals of disaster man-agement.

An Information Fusion Model of Innovation Alliances Based on the Bayesian Network

To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.