Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local govern...Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.展开更多
From the view of current condition and developing trend of the debt scale in Chinese local government,if it could not be controlled by an effective way,the debt crisis will explode in the near future.According to the ...From the view of current condition and developing trend of the debt scale in Chinese local government,if it could not be controlled by an effective way,the debt crisis will explode in the near future.According to the regional distribution in our country,except for Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Hainan,the debt risk mainly concentrates in the western region.In a further step,it can be seen that this risk of debt is resulted by the imbalanced relationship among“power,responsibility and interests”which contains none-accordance of debt power(such as debt financing power),confusion of debt responsibility(such as debt management responsibility)and distortion of debt interests(such as the private benefit and the public interests).If we want to correct this problem,the keynote is to prevent the local government’s debt to be used by the purpose of reaching the private interests.Actually,it should play a role that the local debt financing takes to the“faithful”service for the social interests.For realizing this purpose,it should keep eyes on the relationship among“power,responsibility and interests”,which is the most important factor as for setting up the control system of debt risk about our local governments.Particularly,it includes the following aspects.First of all,it should find the right time to empower the local government with the debt power.Secondly,on the basis of both positive and negative sides,it should design a system to restrict the debt responsibility in the local government,in order to solve the problems such as new debt,invalid debt and overdue debt expansion.Thirdly,it should propose the guidance mechanism to realize the convergence from the private benefit to the social interests on the local debt.展开更多
In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing inter...In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.展开更多
文摘Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.
文摘From the view of current condition and developing trend of the debt scale in Chinese local government,if it could not be controlled by an effective way,the debt crisis will explode in the near future.According to the regional distribution in our country,except for Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Hainan,the debt risk mainly concentrates in the western region.In a further step,it can be seen that this risk of debt is resulted by the imbalanced relationship among“power,responsibility and interests”which contains none-accordance of debt power(such as debt financing power),confusion of debt responsibility(such as debt management responsibility)and distortion of debt interests(such as the private benefit and the public interests).If we want to correct this problem,the keynote is to prevent the local government’s debt to be used by the purpose of reaching the private interests.Actually,it should play a role that the local debt financing takes to the“faithful”service for the social interests.For realizing this purpose,it should keep eyes on the relationship among“power,responsibility and interests”,which is the most important factor as for setting up the control system of debt risk about our local governments.Particularly,it includes the following aspects.First of all,it should find the right time to empower the local government with the debt power.Secondly,on the basis of both positive and negative sides,it should design a system to restrict the debt responsibility in the local government,in order to solve the problems such as new debt,invalid debt and overdue debt expansion.Thirdly,it should propose the guidance mechanism to realize the convergence from the private benefit to the social interests on the local debt.
基金National Social Science Fund of China:“The Balance Coordination Mechanism of Local Government Debt Risk Prevention and Steady Growth under the Classified Limit Management”(17BJY169).
文摘In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.
