Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

Harnessing Demographic Dividends

THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.

End of the First Demographic Dividend and Possible Labor Market Response in China and Other Asian Countries(Regions)

This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.

The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.

Economic Growth, Demographic Change and Rural-Urban Migration in China

Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.

Study on the Perceptions and Social Representations of Husbands on Family Planning in the Health District of Pout/Senegal

Contraception is a set of procedures that aim to achieve temporary infertility in a woman without her ability to conceive being engaged in the future. It plays an essential role in the health of women and children, the psychological well-being of husbands and allows, among other things, savings for the family. The objective was to study the perceptions and social representations of husbands on family planning. A mixed method was used with a qualitative dominance, carried out in the health district of Pout. The result showed that the perceptions and representations of husbands influence this practice family planning. Even if they have positive attitudes and a good level of knowledge about contraceptive methods, their involvement in FP practices remains low with gaps to be filled. Direct or intermediate variables such as the social, cultural, economic and religious aspects are pitfalls. Indeed, the commitment of men and the consideration of their social attributes are variables to be integrated into the process of information and awareness on family planning;this is crucial in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being), including its target 7 focused on sexual and proactive health: a second best move towards the demographic dividend.

Demographic Origins of the Great Recession:Implications for China

The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this proeess when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational eomposition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipiee of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored.

Challenge Facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era

Demographic transition has occurred more rapidly in China than in most developed countries. As the population ages, the growth rate of the working age population has started to decline and the absolute quantity of the working age population will begin to shrink after 2015, which will inevitably result in structural labor shortage. Under the circumstance where comparative advantage is still embodied in its labor-intensive commodities, timely and sufficient supply of a skilled labor force is vital for China to sustain fast economic growth.

Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts： What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China＇s Reform and Opening up？

China＇s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years have led to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists are obligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in this area has positively assessed and documented China＇s successful experiences. However, theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine to judge China＇s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historical logic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chinese experience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on the experiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chronicles the process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus between them. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation and allocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms have spurred China＇s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity. The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for further reform are discussed.

Westward movement of tertiary education resources along the Belt and Road

Nearly half of the Belt and Road countries are still in the opportunity window of demographic dividend.Based on the experiences of China and many other countries,the improvement of health and education level is necessary to transform the economic potential of the age structure into a demographic dividend.Therefore,in order to develop demographic dividend of the Belt and Road,it is important to increase the human capital investment in these countries.On the other hand,there are some problems in education resources allocations in China,especially in tertiary education resources,resulting in inefficient operation of educational resources and is unconducive to the promotion of tertiary education levels.Therefore,the governments in the Belt and Road region would think about policies and strategies to promote the redistribution of westward movement of tertiary education resources.