Desertification dynamic and the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification in the Heihe River Basin based on NPP

Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity （NPP） as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP （human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP） were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61％ of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5％ was caused by human activities,8.6％ by climate change,and 0.9％ by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5％ of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7％ by climate change,the rest 7.8％ by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9％ of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3％ of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.

Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China

Since the 1950s,numerous soil and water conservation measures have been implemented to control severe soil erosion in the Liuhe River Basin(LRB),China.While these measures have protected the upstream soil and water ecological environment,they have led to a sharp reduction in the downstream flow and the deterioration of the river ecological environment.Therefore,it is important to evaluate the impact of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological processes to assess long-term runoff changes.Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)models and sensitivity analyses based on the Budyko hypothesis,this study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change,direct water withdrawal,and soil and water conservation measures on runoff in the LRB during different periods,including different responses to runoff discharge,hydrological regime,and flood processes.The runoff series were divided into a baseline period(1956-1969)and two altered periods,i.e.,period 1(1970-1999)and period 2(2000-2020).Human activities were the main cause of the decrease in runoff during the altered periods,contributing 86.03%(-29.61 mm),while the contribution of climate change was only 13.70%(-4.70 mm).The impact of climate change manifests as a decrease in flood volume caused by a reduction in precipitation during the flood season.Analysis of two flood cases indicated a 66.00%-84.00%reduction in basin runoff capacity due to soil and water conservation measures in the upstream area.Soil and water conservation measures reduced the peak flow and total flood volume in the upstream runoff area by 77.98%and 55.16%,respectively,even with nearly double the precipitation.The runoff coefficient in the reservoir area without soil and water conservation measures was 4.0 times that in the conservation area.These results contribute to the re-evaluation of soil and water conservation hydrological effects and provide important guidance for water resource planning and water conservation policy formulation in the LRB.

Desertification and Sustainable Development of the Heihe River Basin in Arid Northwestern China

The Heihe River Basin of northwestern China is one of several areas severely affected by desertification. This article outlines the status of desertification in this basin. There are mainly 5 types of desertification in the Heihe River Basin, namely soil and water erosion, sandy desertification, soil aridization, soil salinization and vegetation degradation. Among the 5 types of desertification, the main desertification type is sandy desertification with an area of 10 771.97 km2; Second type is soil salinization with an area of 10 591.82 km2; Next to the soil salinization is the type of soil and water erosion with an area of 5 747.68 km2 and the other types of desertification in the Heihe River Basin are soil aridization with just area of 1 369.96 km2 and vegetation degradation type with an area of 1 490.48 km2 respectively. Both natural and man-made factors are responsible for the causes of desertification development, among which the latter is the main driving force for desertification in the basin.

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes.It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods.Therefore,it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle.Based on the data of climate elements(sunshine hours,precipitation and temperature),human activities(population intensity and GDP intensity)and other natural factors(altitude,slope and aspect),this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method,a trend analysis,and a gravity center model,and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model.The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.During 1981-2019,the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend.The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County,Gansu Province,and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019.During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019,the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest.During the study period(1981-2019),the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities.These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.

Quantitative Estimation on Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Decreasing Runoff in Weihe River Basin, China

Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yellow River Basin Under Global Warming

The increasing temperature in the Yellow River Basin has led to a rapid rise in the melting level height,at a rate of 5.98 m yr^(-1)during the cold season,which further contributes to the transition from snowfall to rainfall patterns.Between 1979 and 2020,there has been a decrease in snowfall in the Yellow River Basin at a rate of-3.03 mm dec^(-1),while rainfall has been increasing at a rate of 1.00 mm dec^(-1).Consequently,the snowfall-to-rainfall ratio(SRR)has decreased.Snowfall directly replenishes terrestrial water storage(TWS)in solid form until it melts,while rainfall is rapidly lost through runoff and evaporation,in addition to infiltrating underground or remaining on the surface.Therefore,the decreasing SRR accelerates the depletion of water resources.According to the surface water balance equation,the reduction in precipitation and runoff,along with an increase in evaporation,results in a decrease in TWS during the cold season within the Yellow River Basin.In addition to climate change,human activities,considering the region's dense population and extensive agricultural land,also accelerate the decline of TWS.Notably,irrigation accounts for the largest proportion of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin(71.8%)and primarily occurs during the warm season(especially from June to August).The impact of human activities and climate change on the water cycle requires further in-depth research.

A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities

The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities.Thus,forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance.In this study,an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM,consisting of general circulation model downscaling(GD),hydrological model(HM),and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model(PSWROAM),was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency.Furthermore,the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station.The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying,while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable.Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM.The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change.But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios.The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area.Overall,it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.

An over review of desertification in Xinjiang,Northwest China

Desertification research in arid and semi-arid regions has always been actively pursued.In China,the problem of desertification in Xinjiang has also received extensive attention.Due to its unique geography,many scholars have conducted corresponding research on the desertification status of Xinjiang.In this paper,we comprehensively reviewed desertification in Xinjiang,and compared the underlying mechanisms of desertification and the status of desertification conditions after the implementation of ecological control projects.On a larger scale,desertification in Xinjiang can be divided into soil salinization inside oases and sandy desertification on the edges of oases.Human activities are considered the main cause of desertification,but natural factors also contribute to varying degrees.Research on the mechanisms of desertification has effectively curbed the development of desertification,but unreasonable use of land resources accelerates the risk of desertification.For desertification control,there are several key points.First,desertification monitoring and the early warning of desertification expansion should be strengthened.Second,monitoring and reversing soil salinization also play an important role in the interruption of desertification process.It is very effective to control soil salinization through biological and chemical methods.Third,the management of water resources is also essential,because unreasonable utilization of water resources is one of the main reasons for the expansion of desertification in Xinjiang.Due to the unreasonable utilization of water resources,the lower reaches of the Tarim River are cut off,which leads to a series of vicious cycles,such as the deterioration of ecological environment on both sides of the river and the worsening of desertification.However,in recent years,various desertification control projects implemented in Xinjiang according to the conditions of different regions have achieved remarkable results.For future studies,research on the stability of desert-oasis transition zone is also significantly essential,because such investigations can help to assess the risk of degradation and control desertification on a relatively large scale.

Impact of historical pattern of human activities and natural environment on wetland in Heilongjiang River Basin

Mid and high latitude wetlands are becoming fragmented and losing ecosystem functions at a much faster rate than many other ecosystems.This is due in part to increasing human activities and climate change.In this study,we analyzed wetland distribution and spatial pattern changes for the Heilongjiang River Basin over the past 100 yr.We identified the driving factors and quantified the relative importance of each factor based on landscape pattern metrics and machine learning algorithms.Our results show that wetlands have been fragmented into smaller and regular patches with dominant factors that varied at different periods.Geographic features play the most important role in patterns of wetland change for the entire basin(with 50%-60%of relative importance).Human activities are more important than climate change at the century scale,but less important when magnified at the decadal scale.In the early 1900s,human activities were relatively low and localized and remained that way in the subsequent decades.Thus,the effect of human activities on wetland area of the entire basin is weaker when examined at the magnified decadal scale.The results also show that human activities are more important on the Chinese side of the Heilongjiang River Basin,in the ZeyaBureya Plain on the Russian side,and at lower altitudes(0-100 m).Revealing the spatial and temporal processes and driving factors over the past 100 yr helps researchers and policymakers understand and anticipate wetland change and design effective conservation and restoration policies.

Diverse Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Desertification in the Middle Reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River Catchment on the Tibetan Plateau

The unique desertification processes occurring under the Alpine climate and ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau could provide critical clues to the natural and anthropogenic impacts on desertification.This study used the Landsat data to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of desertification from 1990 to 2020 in two areas(Shannan and Mainling),within the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.The results show not only distinct spatial patterns but also various temporal changes of desertification.In Shannan,aeolian sand was distributed over wide areas from valley floor to mountain slope,while in Mainling,it is distributed sporadically at the footslope.The aeolian sandy land initially expanded before undergoing long-term shrinkage in Shannan.While in Mainling,it steadily expanded followed by a rapid decrease.These changes are attributed to both climate change and human activites.The increase in temperature causes desertification expansion in Shannan,while favorable climate conditions coupled with decreasing human activity promoted desertification reversal.However,both the expansion and shrinkage of desertification were sensitive to human activity in Mainling.This highlights the diverse responses of desertification to natural and anthropogenic impacts on different backgrounds of climatic and vegetation coverage.A threshold of climatic conditions may control the dominance factors in desertification,shifting from natural to anthropogenic elements.

Quantitative estimation of the impact of precipita- tion and human activities on runoff change of the Huangfuchuan River Basin

The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid areas has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and enhanced human activities. The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihoods and ecology. To reveal the variation characteristics, trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been important scientific issues for drainage basin man- agement. The objective of this study was to analyze the variation trends of the runoff and quantitatively assess the contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in the Huangfuchuan River Basin based on the measured data in 1960-2008. Two inflection points （turning years） of 1979 and 1998 for the accumulative runoff change, and one inflection point of 1979 for the accumulative precipitation change were identified using the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis. The linear relationships between year and ac- cumulative runoff in 1960-1979, 1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accu- mulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted. A new method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity （SCRAQ） was put forward and used in this study to calculate the contributions of different factors to the runoff change. Taking 1960-1979 as the base period, the contribution rate of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff was 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997, and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008, re- spectively. The results will play an important role in the drainage basin management. More- over, the new method of SCRAQ can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change and impacts by different factors in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas.

The influence of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, China

This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.

Sediment transferring function of the lower reaches of the Yellow River influenced by drainage basin factors and human activities

Sediment transferring function (Fs) of rivers is defined and indexed in this study, based on the concept of sediment budget at river reach scales. Then, study is made on the Fs of the lower reaches of the Yellow River in relation to natural and human factors in the drainage basin, such as the annual precipitation in different water and sediment source areas, proportion of >0.05 mm sediment of the total sediment load to the lower reaches of Yellow River, the regu-lated degree of the “clear” baseflow from the drainage area above Lanzhou, frequency of hy-perconcentrated flows, area of soil and water conservation measures in the drainage basin. As a result, a multiple regression equation has been established between Fs and 7 influencing factors, with multiple correlation coefficient r = 0.90. The reduction in annual precipitation in different water and sediment source areas has different effects on Fs. The reduction in annual precipitation in the area above Hekou Town and the area between Longmen and Sanmenxia results in a reduction in Fs, but the reduction in annual pre-cipitation in the area between Hekou Town and Longmen results in an increase in Fs. The grain size composition of sediment load strongly affects the Fs; the larger the proportion of >0.05 mm sediment in the suspended sediment load entering the lower reaches of the Yellow River is, the lower the Fs will be. Thus, if the Xiaolangdi Reservoir traps coarse sediment and releases fine sediment, Fs will be enhanced. This study also shows that the lower the proportion of high-flow season river flow to the annual total river flow at Lanzhou Station is, the lower the Fs will be. Therefore, the interception of large quantities of clear water by the reservoirs on the upper reaches of Yellow River is one of the major causes for the decrease in Fs in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.

Initiatives to clarify mechanisms of hydrological evolution in human-influenced Yellow River Basin

Significant changes in water cycle elements/processes have created serious challenges to regional sustainability and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin in China.It is necessary to investigate the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological evolution and disaster risk from a holistic perspective of the basin.This study developed initiatives to clarify the mechanisms of hydrological evolution in the human-influenced Yellow River Basin.The proposed research method includes:(1)a tool to simulate multiple factors and a multi-scale water cycle using a grid-based spatiotemporal coupling approach,and(2)a new algorithm to separate the responses of the water cycle to climate change and human impacts,and de-couple the eco-environmental effects using artificial intelligence techniques.With this research framework,key breakthroughs are expected to be made in the understanding of the impacts of land cover change on the water cycle and blue/green water redirection.The outcomes of this research project are expected to provide theoretical support for ecological protection and water governance in the basin.

Driving forces behind the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land-use and land-cover change:A case study of the Weihe River Basin,China

The impact of socioeconomic development on land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)in river basins varies spatially and temporally.Exploring the spatiotemporal evolutionary trends and drivers of LUCC under regional disparities is the basis for the sustainable development and management of basins.In this study,the Weihe River Basin(WRB)in China was selected as a typical basin,and the WRB was divided into the upstream of the Weihe River Basin(UWRB),the midstream of the Weihe River Basin(MWRB),the downstream of the Weihe River Basin(DWRB),the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),and the Luohe River Basin(LRB).Based on land-use data(cultivated land,forestland,grassland,built-up land,bare land,and water body)from 1985 to 2020,we analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LUCC in the WRB using a land-use transfer matrix and a dynamic change model.The driving forces of LUCC in the WRB in different periods were detected using the GeoDetector,and the selected influencing factors included meteorological factors(precipitation and temperature),natural factors(elevation,slope,soil,and distance to rivers),social factors(distance to national highway,distance to railway,distance to provincial highway,and distance to expressway),and human activity factors(population density and gross domestic product(GDP)).The results indicated that the types and intensities of LUCC conversions showed considerable disparities across different sub-basins,where complex conversions among cultivated land,forestland,and grassland occurred in the LRB,JRB,and UWRB,with higher dynamic change before 2000.The conversion of other land-use types to built-up land was concentrated in the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB,with substantial increases after 2000.Additionally,the driving effects of the influencing factors on LUCC in each sub-basin also exhibited distinct diversity,with the LRB and JRB being influenced by the meteorological and social factors,and the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB being driven by human activity factors.Moreover,the interaction of these influencing factors indicated an enhanced effect on LUCC.This study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects of socioeconomic status on LUCC in the WRB under regional differences,contributing to the sustainable development of the whole basin by managing sub-basins according to local conditions.

Evaluation of Four Anthropogenic Activity Impacts on Heavy Metal Quality of the Kumba River in the South West Region of Cameroon

Anthropogenic activities have contributed to pollution of water bodies through deposition of diverse pollutants amongst which are heavy metals. These pollutants, which at times are above the maximum concentration levels recommended, are detrimental to the quality of the water, soil and crops (plant) with subsequent human health risks. The objective of the work was to evaluate the impacts of human-based activities on the heavy metal properties of surface water with focus on the Kumba River basin. Field observations, interviews, field measurements and laboratory analyses of different water samples enabled us to collect the different data. The results show four main human-based activities within the river basin (agriculture, livestock production, domestic waste disposal and carwash activities) that pollute surface water. Approximately 20.61 tons of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural activities, 156.48 tons of animal wastes, 2517.5 tons of domestic wastes and 1.52 tons of detergent from carwash activities were deposited into the river each year. A highly significant difference at 1% was observed between the upstream and downstream heavy metal loads in four of the five heavy metals tested except for copper that was not significant. Lead concentrations were highest in all the activities with an average of 2.4 mg∙L−1 representing 57.81%, followed by zinc with 1.596 mg∙L−1 (38.45%) and manganese with 0.155 mg∙L−1 (3.74%) for the different anthropogenic activities thus indicating that these activities highly lead to pollution of the Kumba River water. The level of zinc and manganese was significantly influenced at ρ 005 by anthropogenic activities though generally the variations were in the order: carwash (3.196 mg∙L−1) < domestic waste disposal (3.347 mg∙L−1) < agriculture (4.172 mg∙L−1) < livestock (4.886 mg∙L−1) respectively and leading to a total of 14.04 tons of heavy metal pollutants deposited each day.

Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Contributions of Climate and Human Factors to Net Primary Productivity in the Ili River Basin of China and Kazakhstan

It is necessary to quantitatively study the relationship between climate and human factors on net primary productivity(NPP)inorder to understand the driving mechanism of NPP and prevent desertification.This study investigated the spatial and temporal differentiation features of actual net primary productivity(ANPP)in the Ili River Basin,a transboundary river between China and Kazakhstan,as well as the proportional contributions of climate and human causes to ANPP variation.Additionally,we analyzed the pixel-scale relationship between ANPP and significant climatic parameters.ANPP in the Ili River Basin increased from 2001 to 2020 and was lower in the northeast and higher in the southwest;furthermore,it was distributed in a ring around the Tianshan Mountains.In the vegetation improvement zone,human activities were the dominant driving force,whereas in the degraded zone,climate change was the primary major driving force.The correlation coefficients of ANPP with precipitation and temperature were 0.322 and 0.098,respectively.In most areas,there was a positive relationship between vegetation change,temperature and precipitation.During 2001 to 2020,the basin’s climatic change trend was warm and humid,which promoted vegetation growth.One of the driving factors in the vegetation improvement area was moderate grazing by livestock.

Identification of impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow in Weihe River Basin in Northwest China

Climate change and human activities make major influences on hydrology,which are known to have important impacts on streamflow variation.Therefore,it is critically important to identify how climate change and human activities will impact streamflow variation.Thus,the goal of this study is to identify the impacts of climate change and direct human activities on annual streamflow at four hydrologic stations in the Weihe River basin of China,with the estimation of evaporation based on the Budyko hypothesis.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect the break points of the four stations.According to the occurrence time of break points,the data series were divided into two periods:pre-change period(1960-1984)and post-change(1985-2010)period.The parameter of one-parameter Budyko-type model was calibrated with observed data during the pre-change period,with the R^(2) values ranged from 0.95 to 0.97 and the NSE values ranged from 0.80 to 0.94,and the high R^(2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient shows the model has good performance.The contribution ratios of climate change impacts on decreasing streamflow were 37%,23%,57%and 43%,and those of the impacts of direct human activities were 63%,77%,43%and 57%for the Linjiacun,Xianyang,Lintong and Huaxian station,respectively.Both the climate change and direct human activities have positive impacts on streamflow decrease at all of the four stations,and the direct human activities are the main factor causing the decrease of annual streamflow.

Spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability in the Tarim River Basin,Northwest China

As the largest inland river basin of China,the Tarim River Basin(TRB),known for its various natural resources and fragile environment,has an increased risk of ecological crisis due to the intensive exploitation and utilization of water and land resources.Since the Ecological Water Diversion Project(EWDP),which was implemented in 2001 to save endangered desert vegetation,there has been growing evidence of ecological improvement in local regions,but few studies have performed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment of the whole TRB.This study established an evaluation framework integrating the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method to estimate the ecological vulnerability of the TRB covering climatic,ecological,and socioeconomic indicators during 2000-2017.Based on the geographical detector model,the importance of ten driving factors on the spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability was explored.The results showed that the ecosystem of the TRB was fragile,with more than half of the area(57.27%)dominated by very heavy and heavy grades of ecological vulnerability,and 28.40%of the area had potential and light grades of ecological vulnerability.The light grade of ecological vulnerability was distributed in the northern regions(Aksu River and Weigan River catchments)and western regions(Kashgar River and Yarkant River catchments),while the heavy grade was located in the southern regions(Kunlun Mountains and Qarqan River catchments)and the Mainstream catchment.The ecosystems in the western and northern regions were less vulnerable than those in the southern and eastern regions.From 2000 to 2017,the overall improvement in ecological vulnerability in the whole TRB showed that the areas with great ecological improvement increased by 46.11%,while the areas with ecological degradation decreased by 9.64%.The vegetation cover and potential evapotranspiration(PET)were the obvious driving factors,explaining 57.56% and 21.55%of the changes in ecological vulnerability across the TRB,respectively.In terms of ecological vulnerability grade changes,obvious spatial differences were observed in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the TRB due to the different vegetation and hydrothermal conditions.The alpine source region of the TRB showed obvious ecological improvement due to increased precipitation and temperature,but the alpine meadow of the Kaidu River catchment in the Middle Tianshan Mountains experienced degradation associated with overgrazing and local drought.The improved agricultural management technologies had positive effects on farmland ecological improvement,while the desert vegetation in oasis-desert ecotones showed a decreasing trend as a result of cropland reclamation and intensive drought.The desert riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River was greatly improved due to the implementation of the EWDP,which has been active for tens of years.These results provide comprehensive knowledge about ecological processes and mechanisms in the whole TRB and help to develop environmental restoration measures based on different ecological vulnerability grades in each sub-catchment.

Impact of environmental change on runoff in a transitional basin:Tao River Basin from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau,China

Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.