Computational Experiments for Complex Social Systems:Experiment Design and Generative Explanation

Powered by advanced information technology,more and more complex systems are exhibiting characteristics of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS).In this context,computational experiments method has emerged as a novel approach for the design,analysis,management,control,and integration of CPSS,which can realize the causal analysis of complex systems by means of“algorithmization”of“counterfactuals”.However,because CPSS involve human and social factors(e.g.,autonomy,initiative,and sociality),it is difficult for traditional design of experiment(DOE)methods to achieve the generative explanation of system emergence.To address this challenge,this paper proposes an integrated approach to the design of computational experiments,incorporating three key modules:1)Descriptive module:Determining the influencing factors and response variables of the system by means of the modeling of an artificial society;2)Interpretative module:Selecting factorial experimental design solution to identify the relationship between influencing factors and macro phenomena;3)Predictive module:Building a meta-model that is equivalent to artificial society to explore its operating laws.Finally,a case study of crowd-sourcing platforms is presented to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the proposed approach,which can reveal the social impact of algorithmic behavior on“rider race”.

Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Design and analysis of an advanced thermal management system for the solar close observations and proximity experiments spacecraft

In this paper,the mission and the thermal environment of the Solar Close Observations and Proximity Experiments(SCOPE)spacecraft are analyzed,and an advanced thermal management system(ATMS)is designed for it.The relationship and functions of the integrated database,the intelligent thermal control system and the efficient liquid cooling system in the ATMS are elaborated upon.For the complex thermal field regulation system and extreme space thermal environment,a modular simulation and thermal field planning method are proposed,and the feasibility of the planning algorithm is verified by numerical simulation.A solar array liquid cooling system is developed,and the system simulation results indicate that the temperatures of the solar arrays meet the requirements as the spacecraft flies by perihelion and aphelion.The advanced thermal management study supports the development of the SCOPE program and provides a reference for the thermal management in other deep-space exploration programs.

Mechanical heterogeneity characterization of coal materials based on nano-indentation experiments

To investigate the complex macro-mechanical properties of coal from a micro-mechanical perspective,we have conducted a series of micro-mechanical experiments on coal using a nano-indentation instrument.These experiments were conducted under both dynamic and static loading conditions,allowing us to gather the micro-mechanical parameters of coal for further analysis of its micro-mechanical heterogeneity using the box counting statistical method and the Weibull model.The research findings indicate that the load–displacement curves of the coal mass under the two different loading modes exhibit noticeable discreteness.This can be attributed to the stress concentration phenomenon caused by variations in the mechanical properties of the micro-units during the loading process of the coal mass.Consequently,there are significant fluctuations in the micro-mechanical parameters of the coal mass.Moreover,the mechanical heterogeneity of the coal at the nanoscale was confirmed based on the calculation results of the standard deviation coefficient and Weibull modulus of the coal body’s micromechanical parameters.These results reveal the influence of microstructural defects and minerals on the uniformity of the stress field distribution within the loaded coal body,as well as on the ductility characteristics of the micro-defect structure.Furthermore,there is a pronounced heterogeneity in the micromechanical parameters.Furthermore,we have established a relationship between the macro and micro elastic modulus of coal by applying the Mori-Tanaka homogenization method.This relationship holds great significance for revealing the micro-mechanical failure mechanism of coal.

Rotating tank experiments for the study of geophysical fluid dynamics

Geophysical fluid dynamics(GFD)is an interdisciplinary field that studies the large-scale motion of fluids in the natural world.With a wide range of applications such as weather forecasts and climate prediction,GFD employs various research approaches including in-situ observations,satellite measurements,numerical simulations,theoretical analysis,artificial intelligence,and physical model experiments in laboratory.Among these approaches,rotating tank experiments provide a valuable tool for simulating naturally-occurring fluid motions in laboratories.With proportional scaling and proper techniques,scientists can reproduce multi-scale physical processes of stratified fluids in the rotation system,which allows for the simulation of essential characteristics of fluid motions in the atmosphere and oceans.In this review,rotating tanks of various scales in the world are introduced,as these tanks have been actively used to explore fundamental scientific questions in ocean and atmosphere dynamics.To illustrate the GFD experiments,three representative cases are presented to demonstrate the frontier achievements in the the GFD study by using rotating tank experiments:mesoscale eddies in the ocean,convection processes,and plume dynamics.Detailed references for the experimental procedures are provided.Future studies are encouraged to further explore the utilization of rotating tanks with improvements in experimental design and integration of other research methods.This is a promising direction of GFD to help enhance our understanding of the complex nature of fluid motions in the natural world and to address the challenges posed by global environmental changes.

Laboratory Experiments Do Not Support the Greenhouse Effect as Applicable to CO2

The analysis of Greenhouse Effect experiments in the public domain indicated that the lab tests were primarily centered around illustrating the mechanics of conventional greenhouses. They used high-energy visible light (such as sunlight), rather than addressing the Greenhouse Effect, which involves low-energy infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface. Studies with argon, a non-greenhouse gas with similar density to CO2, showed thermal heat transfer as the dominant factor in the temperature profiles, with radiation absorption being undetected. The same conclusion was drawn by another study, which measured infrared back radiation. Experiments using exaggerated CO2 concentrations inadvertently illustrated the principle of the Popper Falsification Test by disproving the Greenhouse Effect applicable to CO2 within the troposphere. A straightforward kitchen test showed that a microwave oven cannot be used as a model for the Greenhouse Effect.

Flume experiments to study fine-grain migration and its impact on slope stability

Fine grains migration is a primary cause of landslides and debris flows.This study investigates the effect of fine-grain migration on slope failure through flume experiments,focusing on the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of slope stability.A series of artificial rainfall flume experiments with varying rainfall intensities and slopes were conducted using soil samples collected from Wei Jia Gully.The experiments monitored pore-water pressure,grain migration,and failure sequences.Grain-size distribution parameters(μand Dc)were analyzed to understand the migration path and accumulation of fine grains.The experiments reveal that fine-grain migration significantly alters soil structure,leading to random blockage and interconnection of internal pore channels.These changes result in fluctuating pore-water pressure distributions and uneven fine-grain accumulation,critical factors in slope stability.Slope failures occur randomly and intermittently,influenced by fine-grain content in runoff and resulting pore-water pressure variations.This study highlights that fine-grain migration plays a vital role in slope stability,with significant implications for predicting and mitigating slope failures.The stochastic nature of fine-grain migration and its impact on soil properties should be incorporated into predictive models to enhance their accuracy and reliability.

Ballistic limit velocity of small caliber projectiles against SS400 steel plates:Live fire experiments and empirical models

This study presents the ballistic limit velocity of small caliber projectiles against SS400 steel plate derived from live-fire ballistic experiments. Four different small caliber projectiles were tested against SS400 steel plates of 9 mm, 10 mm, and 12 mm thicknesses. The ballistic limit velocity was calculated using two standard methods, MIL-STD-662F and NIJ-STD-0101.06, and additionally using a support vector machine algorithm. The results show a linear relationship between the plate thickness and ballistic limit velocity. Further, the relative penetration performance among five different small caliber projectiles was analyzed using the Penetration Performance Ratio(PPR) introduced in this study, which suggests the potential of PPR to predict the ballistic limit velocity of other untested materials and/or different projectiles.

Teaching Status and Teaching Reform Ideas of Physical Chemistry Experiments for Food Quality and Safety Major

Physical chemistry experiments are an important branch of chemical experiments.In view of problems and shortcomings in physical chemistry experiment teaching of food quality and safety major in Chengdu University,the teaching methods of physical chemistry experiment course of food quality and safety major were explored and practiced,aiming to arouse students enthusiasm for experiments and cultivate their ability of independent learning,comprehensive thinking and independent problem solving.

Study on the effect and mechanism of Swertia mussotii Franch. in the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis based on bioinformatics and in vitro experiments

Background:Primary biliary cholangitis(PBC)is a chronic biliary autoimmune liver disease characterized by intrahepatic cholestasis.Swertia mussotii Franch.(SMF)is a Tibetan medicine with hepatoprotective and anti-inflammatory activities.In this study,the therapeutic effect and potential mechanisms of SMF on PBC were investigated by bioinformatics analysis and in vitro experimental validation,with the aim of promoting the progress of SMF and PBC research.Methods:We first explored the therapeutic effects and key targets of SMF on PBC using a network pharmacology approach,further screened the core targets using the GSE79850 dataset,and finally validated the results using molecular docking techniques and in vitro experiments.Results:By bioinformatics analysis,we identified core targets of SMF for PBC treatment(STAT3,JAK2,TNF-α,and IL-1β)and important signaling pathways:JAK-STAT,TNF,and PI3K-AKT.The molecular docking results showed that the significant components of SMF had good binding properties to the core targets.In vitro experiments showed that SMF extracts improved the extent of epithelial-mesenchymal transition in human intrahepatic biliary epithelial cells and had a significant reversal effect on epithelial-mesenchymal transition process markers and potential targets in PBC.Conclusion:SMF may exert its therapeutic effects on PBC by acting on important targets such as STAT3,JAK2,TNF-α,IL-1β,Vimentin,and E-cadherin and the pathways in which they are involved.

Walnut Tree Grafting Experiments in Different Areas in Yunnan Province

Yunnan has an area of 2.88 million hm2 walnut trees. Due to freezing in- jury and rapid growth, however, there are a lot of iron walnuts or inferior-quality walnuts ready for grafting. In five years, we conducted experiments in Kunming （Yunnan Academy of Forestry）, Gongshan County, Gucheng City, Luliang County, and Ludian County by cleft grafting, veneer grafting, bark grafting and whip grafting. The grafting approaches should be selected according to grafting requirements, characteristics, and survival rate. For example, with a low survival rate, cleft grafting can be abandoned, and the rest approaches might be chosen as per practical demands.

A Land Surface Model(IAP94) for Climate Studies PartI:Formulation and Validation in Off-line Experiments

The IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) land-surface model (IAP94) is described. This model is a comprehensive one with detailed description for the processes of vegetation, snow and soil. Particular attention has been paid to the cases with three water phases in the surface media. On the basis of the mixture theory and the theory of fluid dynamics of porous media, the system of universal conservational equations for water and heat of soil, snow and vegetation canopy has been constructed. On this background, all important factors that may affect the water and heat balance in media can be considered naturally, and each factor and term possess distinct physical meaning. In the computation of water content and temperature, the water phase change and the heat transportation by water flow are taken into account. Moreover, particular attention has been given to the water vapor diffusion in soil for arid or semi-arid cases, and snow compaction. In the treatment of surface turbulent fluxes, the difference between aerodynamic and thermal roughness is taken into account. The aerodynamic roughness of vegetation is calculated as a function of canopy density, height and zero-plane displacement. An extrapolation of log linear and exponential relationship is used when calculating the wind profile within canopy. The model has been validated against field measurements in off-line simulations. The desirable model′s performance leads to the conclusion that the IAP94 is able to reproduce the main physical mechanisms governing the energy and water balances in the global land surface. Part II of the present study will concern the validation in a 3-D experiment coupled with the IAP Two-Level AGCM.

A framework for equipment systems-of-systems effectiveness evaluation using parallel experiments approach

Equipment systems-of-systems （SOS） effectiveness evaluation can provide important reference for construction and optimization of the equipment SoS. After discussing the basic theory and methods of parallel experiments, we depict an SoS effectiveness analysis and evaluation method using parallel expe- riments theory in detail. A case study is carried out which takes the missile defense system as an example. An artificial system of the missile defense system is constructed with the multi-agent modeling method. Then, single factor, multiple factors and defense position deployment computational experiments are carried out and evaluated with the statistical analysis method. Experiment re- sults show that the altitude of the secondary interception missile is not the key factor which affects SoS effectiveness and putting the defense position ahead will increase defense effectiveness. The case study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

おhe water-bearing numerical model is undergone all round examinations during the operational forecasting experiments from 1994 to 1996. A lot of difficult problems arising from the model′s water-bearing are successfully resolved in these experiments through developing and using a series of technical measures. The operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model is realized stably and reliably, and satisfactory forecasts are obtained.

Electromagnetic anomaly before earthquakes measured by electromagnetic experiments

Three experiments are carried out for earthquake monitoring using electromagnetic （EM） methods in recent years. Some earthquakes occurred in chance of the measurement time period for each experiment and the anomalies were recorded before the shocks. The observation at a site 20 km away from the epicenter of Zhangbei Ms6.2 earthquake in 1998 shows that the apparent resistivity decreases in the strike direction before and/or during the earthquake and the resistivity increases in the decline direction. This anomalous variation in apparent resistivity accounts for about 20%. The apparent resistivities at a site in the epicentral area decrease in the strike and decline directions before and/or during the earthquake and increase after shocks. The experiments using artificial electromagnetic signals with super low frequency carried out in 1999 show that the resolution and stability of electric and magnetic spectra are improved. The spectra of electric and magnetic fields and apparent resistivity at the Baodi station began to anomalously change two days before the Qian＇an earthquake with 120 km distant to the station. The anomalous variation of electric and magnetic spectra is about twice as great as normal variation and the apparent resistivity changes by about 20%. The measurements in active seismic area of Yunnan province in the year 2005 indicate that the electric and magnetic spectra anomalously change by one order before the Taoyuan earthquake about 100 km away from the observatories. But the measurements at the sites in Beijing area 2 000 km away from the epicenter do not show any anomaly.

Experiments and numerical simulations on transport of dissolved pollutants around spur dike

The flow field around a spur dike has three-dimensional characteristics. In order to analyze the influence of the flow field on pollutant transport, based on a compressive volume of fluid （VOF） scheme, the three-dimensional transient compressive pollutant transport model （CPTM） and the cubic equation （CE） bounded differencing scheme were developed. For the calibration and validation of CPTM, laboratory experiments were carried out in a flume with a non-submerged spur dike. The spur dike was angled at 60°, 90°, and 120° from the upstream direction. The simulation results agreed with the experimental results. The simulations and experiments showed that the distribution of pollutant concentration was determined by circumfluence and the main flow. Concentration decay in the circumfluenee zone was slower than that in the main flow. Downstream of the spur dike, the concentration fluctuation became intensive with the increase of spur dike angle.

Structure and kinematic analysis of the deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan Basin through a seismic interpretation and analogue modeling experiments

Located at the northwest continental slope of the South China Sea, the Qiongdongnan Basin bears valley-shaped bathymetry deepening toward east. It is separated from the Yinggehai Basin through NW-trending Indo-China-Red River shear zone, and connected with NW subsea basin through the Xisha Trough. Along with the rapid progress of the deepwater exploration, large amounts of high resolution geophysical and geological data were accumulated. Scientific researches about deepwater basins kept revealing brand new tectonic and sedimentary discoveries. In order to summarize the structural features and main controlling factors of the deepwater Qiongdongnan Basin, a series of researches on basin architecture, fault activities, tectonic deformation and evolution were carried out. In reference to analogue modeling experiments, a tectonic situation and a basin formation mechanism were discussed. The researches indicate that：the northern boundary of the Qiongdongnan Basin is strongly controlled by No. 2 fault. The overlapping control of two stress fields from the east and the west made the central depression zone extremely thinned. Combined with the changed stress field, the segmentation of a preexisting weakness zone made the sags in the east experiencing different rifting histories from the west ones. The NE-trending west segment of the Qiongdongnan Basin experienced strong rifting during Eocene, while the roughly EW-trending sags in the east segment show strong rifting during late Eocene and early Oligocene. Local structures such as NW-trending basal fault and inherited uplifts controlled the lateral segmentation. So first order factors such as regional stress field and preexisting weakness zone controlled the basin zonation, while the second order factors determined the segmentation from east to west.

Interspecies competition for nutrients between Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu and Skeletonema costatum(Grev.) Cleve in mesocosm experiments

Three mesocosm experiments were conducted in the East China Sea during blooms of Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu in May of 1998,2002 and 2003 to examine the role of nutrients in the formation of these harmful algae blooms（HABs）.The results showed that there was interspecies competition between P.donghaiense and Skeletonema costatum（Grev.） Cleve.The cell number of P.donghaiense and S.costatum accounted for about 85% and 11% of the total cell number of phytoplankton respectively at the beginning of the experiment in May 1998.In May 2002,at the beginning of the experiment,the cell number of P.donghaiense accounted for 55%-66% of the total and S.costatum accounted for 32%-42%.The density of P.donghaiense and S.costatum was over 95% and 1%-5% respectively in May 2003.The results of these three mesocosm experiments showed that the dominant species in this specific community varied with different nutrient availability.Under low-phosphate conditions,the dominant species was P.donghaiense,while S.costatum became dominant in phosphate-replete cases.The average growth rate（1.08 d-1） of S.costatum in exponential growth phase was higher than that（0.39 d-1） of P.donghaiense.In the mesocosm,S.costatum predominated in the mesocosm by its rapid growth.When phosphorus was depleted,the cell number of S.costatum dropped rapidly,while P.donghaiense Lu decreased more slowly.The results from mesocosm experiment may explain why：（1） P.donghaiense bloom usually occurs in May,when phosphate concentration is low;（2） the bloom of S.costatum appears in early spring and summer time,when nutrients increase with increasing Changjiang River（Yangtze River） runoff;（3） the bloom of S.costatum is short and that of P.donghaiense Lu can last more than a month in the East China Sea.

On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations： numerical experiments

Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.

Sensitivity Experiments of an Eastward-Moving Southwest Vortex to Initial Perturbations

Whether the initial conditions contain pronounced mesoscale signals is important to the simulation of the southwest vortex. An eastward-moving southwest vortex is simulated using the PSU/NCAR MM5. A modest degree of success is achieved, but the most serious failure is that the formation and displacement of the simulated vortex in its early phase are about fourteen hours later than the observed vortex. Considering the relatively sparse data on the mesoscale vortex and in an attempt to understand the cause of the forecast failure, an adjoint model is used to examine the sensitivity of the southwest vortex to perturbations of initial conditions. The adjoint sensitivity indicates how small perturbations of model variables at the initial time in the model domain can influence the vortex. A large sensitivity for zonal wind is located under 400 hPa, a large sensitivity for meridional wind is located under 500 hPa, a large sensitivity for temperature is located between 500 and 900 hPa, and almost all of the large sensitivity areas are located in the southwestern area. Based on the adjoint sensitivity results, perturbations are added to initial conditions to improve the simulation of the southwest vortex. The results show that the initial conditions with perturbations can successfully simulate the formation and displacement of the vortex; the wind perturbations added to the initial conditions appear to be a cyclone circulation under the middle level of the atmosphere in the southwestern area with an anticyclone circulation to its southwest; a water vapor perturbation added to initial conditions can strengthen the vortex and the speed of its displacement.