Computing large deviation prefactors of stochastic dynamical systems based on machine learning

We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.

LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR TOP EIGENVALUES OFβ-JACOBI ENSEMBLES AT SCALING TEMPERATURES

Letλ=(λ_(1),…,λ_(n))beβ-Jacobi ensembles with parameters p_(1),p_(2),n andβ,withβvarying with n.Set■.Suppose that■and 0≤σγ<1.We offer the large deviation for p_(1)+p_(2)/p_(1)■λ_(i)whenγ>0 via the large deviation of the corresponding empirical measure and via a direct estimate,respectively,whenγ=0.

Effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel simulations: A case study in the Middle Yangtze River

Froude similitude and friction similitude are the two crucial similarity conditions that are often used in physical-scale modeling of rivers.However,models often deviate from Froude similitude when dealing with real-world situations.This study developed several fixed-bed river models with various curvatures to determine the effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel modeling.Models were constructed according to the characteristics of the Middle Yangtze River.Differences in longitudinal slope,transverse slope,and main stream line location were measured by varying Froude similitude deviation.The deviations of longitudinal slope and velocity were negligible because friction similitude was accounted for.The transverse slope varied significantly with the Froude similitude deviation,and the main stream line varied with the curvature and Froude similitude deviation.Formulae were derived to estimate the slope deviation.These analyses helped to clarify the feasibility of the method of Froude similitude deviation for curved channels.

A LARGE DEVIATION PRINCIPLE FOR THE STOCHASTIC GENERALIZED GINZBURG-LANDAU EQUATION DRIVEN BY JUMP NOISE

In this paper,we establish a large deviation principle for the stochastic generalized Ginzburg-Landau equation driven by jump noise.The main difficulties come from the highly non-linear coefficient and the jump noise.Here,we adopt a new sufficient condition for the weak convergence criterion of the large deviation principle,which was initially proposed by Matoussi,Sabbagh and Zhang(2021).

A novel lattice model integrating the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux under V2X environment

A novel lattice hydrodynamic model is proposed by integrating the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux under vehicle to X(V2X) environment. According to the theoretical analysis, the stability conditions and the mKdV equations affected by the cooperative deviation of traffic information are explored. And the density wave, hysteresis loop and energy consumption of the traffic flow have been investigated via numerical simulation. The results indicate that the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion. More importantly, our new consideration can reduce fuel consumption and exhaust emission under the V2X environment.

Modified inferior oblique anterior transposition for dissociated vertical deviation combined with superior oblique palsy:A case report

BACKGROUND Inferior oblique anterior transposition(IOAT)has emerged as an effective surgery in the management of dissociated vertical deviation(DVD)combined with superior oblique palsy(SOP).Traditional IOAT usually provides satisfactory primary position alignment and simultaneously restricts the superior floating phenomenon.However,it also increases the risk of the anti-elevation syndrome and narrowing of the palpebral fissure in straight-ahead gaze,especially after the unilateral operation.CASE SUMMARY We report the outcomes of the modified unilateral IOAT in two patients with unilateral DVD combined with SOP.The anterior-nasal fibers of the inferior oblique muscle were attached at 9 mm posterior to the corneal limbus along the temporal board of the inferior rectus muscle,the other fibers were attached a further 5 mm temporal to the anterior-nasal fibers.Postoperatively,both hypertropia and floating were improved,and no obvious complications occurred.CONCLUSION In these cases,the modified unilateral IOAT was an effective and safe surgical method for treating DVD with SOP.

Application Research of an Intelligent Detection Algorithm for Vehicle Trajectory Route Deviation

In the vehicle trajectory application system, it is often necessary to detect whether the vehicle deviates from the specified route. Trajectory planning in the traditional route deviation detection is defined by the driver through the mobile phone navigation software, which plays a more auxiliary driving role. This paper presents a method of vehicle trajectory deviation detection. Firstly, the manager customizes the trajectory planning and then uses big data technologies to match the deviation between the trajectory planning and the vehicle trajectory. Finally, it achieves the supervisory function of the manager on the vehicle track route in real-time. The results show that this method could detect the vehicle trajectory deviation quickly and accurately, and has practical application value.

Assessment of Deviation in Quality of Steel Reinforcing Bars Used in Some Building Sites in Cameroon

The present work evaluated the deviations in the quality of steel reinforcing bars in terms of markings, diameter, yield strength and ductility in order to facilitate the drawing up of a yield strength value for the Cameroon National Annex to Eurocode 2. The methodology of the work started with the collection of steel samples from various active building project sites in four different towns viz: Bamenda, Douala, Maroua and Yaoundé and testing their tensile strength and elongation using a Universal Testing Machine and also carrying out the bending test. Results show that bars without marked manufacturer’s name fell all the tests. Other results show that 52% of all the steel had yield stresses below 400 Mpa and the highest deviation in the yield strengths was 22.50%. The study recommends that properly marked grade 500 steel bars should be adopted in the Cameroon national annex to Eurocode 2.

The Inheritance and Deviation of the Subjective Construction“You Bei X Dao(有被X到)”

Sentence“bei”(“被”字句)and“bei xx”(被xx)provide syntactic and semantic basis for the generation of the construction“You Bei X Dao(有被x到)”.They are in a continuum and have family similarity.The sentence“bei”is a typical member,while“bei xx”is an atypical member.Because the construction“You Bei X Dao”has a single function and less attention,it is at the edge of the continuum and is a marginal member.However,it has certain research value in the inheritance and innovation of“bei”and“bei xx”.

Influence of highway space alignment continuous degradation in 3- dimensional space on autonomous vehicle trajectory deviation based on PreScan simulation

The advent of autonomous vehicles(AVs)is expected to transform the current transportation system into a safe and reliable one.The existing infrastructures,operational criteria,and design method were developed to meet the requirements of human drivers.However,previous studies have shown that in the traditional horizontal and vertical combined design methods,where the two-dimensional alignment elements change,there are varying changes in curvature and torsion,which cause the continuous degradation of the spatial curve and torsion.This continuous degradation will inevitably cause changes in the trajectory of Autonomous Vehicles(AVs),thereby affecting driving safety.Therefore,studying the characteristics of autonomous vehicles trajectory deviation has theoretical significance for optimizing highway alignment safety design.Driving simulation tests were performed by using PreScan and Simulink to calibrate the lateral deviation.A machine learning approach called the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)algorithm was implemented to build a model and express the relationship between space alignment parameters and lane deviation.The results showed that the AV’s driving trajectory is significantly affected by the space alignment factors when the vehicle is driving in the inner lane,the downhill section,and the left-turn section.These findings will provide a novel perspective for road safety research based on autonomous vehicle driving trajectories.

金属板材大深宽比微沟槽特征辊压成形工艺分析

提出一种新型的辊压成形的工艺,对主辅成形辊轮的轮廓设计提出新的设计思路,并对0.1 mm的厚度TA1钛板微沟槽(深度2.5 mm,深宽比86.2%)进行辊压成形的试验,将最大减薄率、最大深度偏差作为评价指标,验证工艺的合理性与科学性。结果表明:辅助成形辊轮在满足挠度(<0.02 mm)的前提下,应尽可能减少辅助成形辊轮的特征数,使其在辊压过程中板材折弯变形而非拉延,其最大减薄率为小于0.4%,深度偏度小于0.5%,配合冲压模具可以对大深宽比的微沟槽成形,而不受拔模角度的影响,此新型成形工艺可以促进金属板材微沟槽产品的产业化。

2000—2020年非洲耕地资源时空格局变化分析

非洲地区面临严重的粮食安全问题,研究其耕地资源时空格局变化对于保障非洲粮食安全具有重要意义.基于2000—2020年间联合国粮农组织的统计数据,通过重心迁移、标准差椭圆及局部空间自相关等方法对非洲耕地资源时空格局的变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:1)非洲耕地整体数量呈稳定上升趋势,20年间耕地面积增加了6321.92万hm^(2),增长率为53.44%,但不同国家间存在差异;2)非洲耕地在几何中心以北区域分布较多,耕地重心迁移方向先向东北后转向偏西方向,移动总距离为111.86 km,偏移速率先快后慢,从前5年的平均10.27 km/a降至后15年的平均4.00 km/a左右;3)非洲耕地分布呈西北—东南向,20年来标准差椭圆转角有向水平方向倒伏趋势,椭圆面积不断缩小,向心性不断增强;4)非洲耕地分布集聚主要出现在西非的尼日尔和尼日利亚,异常区为南非及贝宁.

光学角规在透镜中心偏测量仪校准中的应用

介绍了透镜中心偏测量仪的校准现状,设计使用光学角规对透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管的示值误差进行校准。通过分析光学角规的基本原理,偏向角的定义,偏向角和楔角的转换关系,详细说明如何选择光学角规以及如何使用光学角规实现透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管示值误差的校准与溯源。选用标称值分别为2′与5′,并经过国家计量院溯源的一等光学角规,对1台单光路设备和1台双光路设备进行校准,测量重复性均优于0.1″,不确定度达到0.11″。结果表明,光学角规可以有效解决高精度透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管示值误差的校准溯源问题。

可见光波段多路激光合束及闭环校正技术研究

为了实现可见光波段多路不同波长激光的周期性闭环校正,设计了一种具有光束指向和位置偏差独立监测与调节的激光合束系统。首先,根据系统的应用需求,提出了合束系统的设计指标与整体合束方案。然后,在合束方案的基础上,建立了合束系统的光束控制模型,并通过数值仿真得到了合束系统光束控制的解算方法。闭环合束系统通过光束指向和位置监测装置分别实现合束激光指向偏差与位置偏差的独立监测,并根据监测结果进行光束调节装置控制量的解算;进而通过两维摆镜和一维平移台分别实现光束指向和位置偏差的独立高效调节。最后,采用两路不同波长的激光束,配合光束监测与调节装置,搭建了闭环合束模拟实验平台,对周期性闭环合束系统的合束效果进行了验证。实验结果表明:在长时间的工作过程中,两路激光均实现了与基准光路的精密合束,合束指向精度优于±7μrad,位置精度优于±0.84 mm。本研究所组建的激光合束系统不仅具有合束精度高、校正速度快、光路扩展性强的优势,而且可实现激光束的周期性闭环校正,能够有效保证合束激光的长期工作稳定性。

顾及城市发展和生态保护均衡的宜昌市生境质量多情景模拟研究

城市发展过程中不同的发展方向与生态保护目标往往会产生不同的矛盾冲突,通过均衡城市发展和生态保护之间的关系,能够促进城市发展和生态保护的耦合协调。以宜昌市为研究对象,耦合PLUS—InVEST模型并结合标准差椭圆分析,以2020年土地利用现状数据为基础,模拟自然发展、经济发展以及生态保护3种情景下2040年宜昌市生境质量变化情况。研究结果表明:1)2000—2020年宜昌市主要发生变化的地类为耕地、林地以及建设用地,其中林地与耕地为主要的转出地类,建设用地为主要的转入地类;2)在不同模拟情景下,建设用地扩张方向均由西南向东北收缩,城市扩张强度减缓,建设用地扩张强度重心并开始由东向西进行迁徙;3)在自然发展和经济发展情景下,宜昌市生境质量在未来均呈现衰退的趋势,而在生态保护情景下,宜昌市生境质量有所恢复。通过模拟未来不同政策下土地利用方式改变来反映宜昌市生境质量变化情况,为均衡城市发展与生态保护产生的矛盾和冲突有着重要意义。

超深井工程理论与技术若干研究进展及发展建议

超深井工程受到高温高压、复杂地层、超长井眼和腐蚀介质等多重因素约束,其安全高效作业面临全方位的技术挑战。为此,针对超深井工程的安全高效设计控制问题,介绍了该工程的发展概况与技术特点;选取井眼轨迹预测与防斜打快、钻柱振动特性分析与减振控制、钻井延伸极限预测与设计控制,以及套管失效风险评估与安全控制等几个重要理论与技术问题,介绍了国内外的相关研究进展及笔者团队的最新研究成果;然后,针对超深井工程提出了若干创新发展建议。研究结果表明,超深井工程理论与技术的发展整体呈现出体系化、科学化、多学科交叉、地质与工程一体化等基本特点。建议在基础理论问题、关键核心技术、技术协同关系、技术迭代模式和多学科交叉融合等方面加强创新研究,以持续推进超深井工程基础理论与关键技术创新发展。

基于频率响应特性的储能辅助电网调频方法

新能源渗透率的提高增加了电网频率控制的复杂度,储能辅助电网调频能在一定程度上缓解该问题,但受储能运行的安全性与经济性约束,要求调频措施更具针对性。文中对此展开研究,提出一种基于频率响应特性的储能辅助电网一次调频方法。首先,在储能辅助电网调频模型基础上,选择惯性加下垂的储能辅助电网调频综合控制方法,通过电网频率变化率(rate of change of frequency,RoCoF)、频率偏差与调频需求的关联性分析,设计基于频率响应特性的调频需求分区规则;然后,根据不同调频需求对应的分区判断,对储能有功输出方式进行动态调整,以响应调频需求的不确定性,并在此基础上,针对调频需求与储能出力需求、储能出力强弱与其循环使用寿命间的矛盾关系,通过多目标优化问题的设计与求解来予以平衡;最后,仿真结果验证了所提方法能够在保证电网调频效果的基础上,有效降低储能充放电深度。

考虑风速纵、横分量的列车气动载荷变化特性

为探索侧向环境风作用下列车气动载荷变化特性,对任意风向角下随车移动点处的风速纵、横分量进行建模,研究考虑风速纵、横分量的列车气动载荷计算方法,并分析在列车速度200~400 km/h、平均风速10~35 m/s及风向角30°~150°时的列车气动载荷特性.研究发现:在不同风向角下,考虑风速横向分量后,高速列车气动载荷波动变大,作用于列车上的瞬时气动载荷极值增大;风速横向分量主要影响列车气动载荷的标准差,且影响程度与风向角有关;随着风向角接近临界风向角,风速横向分量对列车气动载荷标准差的影响逐渐变小,随着风向角远离临界风向角,风速横向分量对列车气动载荷标准差的影响逐渐变大;列车气动载荷的标准差/均值主要与侧偏角有关,且在风向角为30°及150°时较大,其次是风向角60°和120°,而在风向角90°时则较小.

恒力支吊架性能指标研究及标准修改建议

高温汽水管道是发电厂的重要部件,由于管道垂直高差和水平跨距较大,为协调管道热膨胀和降低管道热胀应力,在管道设计时配置了较多恒力弹簧支吊架(恒力吊架)。由于存在转轴摩擦力矩等原因,恒力吊架并非恒力,其荷载偏差会造成管道运行时偏离设计冷态、热态线及管道应力升高。为控制恒力支吊架质量,国内相关标准中有恒定度和荷载偏差度2个质量性能控制指标。分析研究荷载偏差度可得:由于存在摩擦力矩等,恒力吊架在测试荷载偏差度时,不同加载方向测得的拔销荷载差异较大,导致其荷载偏差度差异较大,因此拔销荷载不宜作为代表性参数;平均荷载可表征位移-荷载曲线的位置,是恒力支吊架的代表性参数,并给出了新的平均荷载偏差度计算公式。建议对相关标准进行修订,提高恒力吊架性能。

医疗失效模式与效应分析在临床试验方案偏离管理中的应用

目的规范临床试验的管理,降低方案偏离的发生率,为提高临床试验的质量提供参考。方法运用医疗失效模式与效应分析方法(HFMEA)确定目前方案偏离发生的潜在失效模式,量化并评估失效模式发生频率、严重程度及可探测度,计算风险优先数(RPN),提出相应的改进措施,统计分析HFMEA实施前后RPN值,评估改进效果。结果开展HFMEA活动后,14项潜在失效模式的RPN值明显下降(P<0.05);12项潜在失效模式的风险等级下降。HFMEA小组成员在发现问题和解决问题能力、沟通配合等方面得到了显著提高。结论HFMEA活动的实施有助于临床试验方案偏离的管理,可有效降低方案偏离的发生,为提高药物临床试验质量提供经验。