In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test s...In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is derived under the weak conditions.展开更多
Globally,economies have become complex and new technologies have transformed and facilitated the modernization of economies.In the previous literature,economic complexity approach has become one of the popular tools i...Globally,economies have become complex and new technologies have transformed and facilitated the modernization of economies.In the previous literature,economic complexity approach has become one of the popular tools in the development and innovation studies of economic geography.Researchers have found that green technology and eco-innovation approaches should be used to decisively reduce the effects of carbon emissions on the environment.However,debates about the impact of economic complexity on environment remain unsettled since some emerging production technologies have far-reaching pollution effects.This study explored the impacts of economic complexity on environmental sustainability in Turkey using the novel Fourier-based approaches,namely:Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller(FADF)and Fourier Autoregressive-Distributed Lag(FARDL)models.The Fourier-based approaches indicated that all variables(economic complexity index(ECI),GDP,energy consumption,and CO_(2)emission(CO_(2)E))are cointegrated in the long run.Additionally,the FARDL model implied that(i)in the long run,the effect of ECI(as a proxy for economic complexity),GDP(as a proxy for economic growth),and energy consumption on CO_(2)E(as a proxy for environmental quality)are important;(ii)economic complexity decreases environmental degradation in Turkey;and(iii)economic growth and energy consumption negatively affect environmental quality.The results also showed that economic complexity could be used as a policy tool to tackle environmental degradation.The findings also revealed that the fossil fuelbased economy will continue to expand and undermine Turkey’s efforts to meet its net zero emission target by 2053.Therefore,policy-makers should take actions and establish diversified economic,environmental,and energy strategies.For policy insights,the Turkish governments can use the combination of tax exemptions and technical support systems to support knowledge creation and the diffusion of environmentally friendly technologies The governments can also impose strict environmental regulations on the knowledge development phases.展开更多
A time series analysis method was used to establish an econometric model for SINOPEC＇S stock price tendency on the domestic securities market under the background of sharp oil price rises in recent years. The model w...A time series analysis method was used to establish an econometric model for SINOPEC＇S stock price tendency on the domestic securities market under the background of sharp oil price rises in recent years. The model was proven to be a non-stationary time series and unit root process, as tested with the Dickey-Fuller method, and the result of a practical case showed that this model could well reflect SINOPEC stock price tendency on the securities market of China. It would be a guide for research and prediction of stock price tendency.展开更多
A stock exchange is an exchange where stock brokers and traders can buy and sell shares of stock, bonds, and other securities. All listings are included in the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Shares index. In terms of mar...A stock exchange is an exchange where stock brokers and traders can buy and sell shares of stock, bonds, and other securities. All listings are included in the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Shares index. In terms of market capitalization, the Nigerian Stock Exchange is the third largest stock exchange in Africa. Objectives: The paper assesses the impact of Nigerian Stock Market (all share index, market capitalization, and number of equities) on Gross domestic product (Economic Growth). Materials and Methods: Regression analysis and ordinary least square technique were employed. Result and Discussion: The series was stationary at 1%, 5%, and 10% α level;the residuals were normally distributed but not serially correlated at 5% α level. All Share Index, Market Capitalization and Total Number of listed Equities have a joint and individual significant effect on Economic Growth (Gross Domestic Product) with Total Number of listed Equities having a negative (opposite) linear relationship with the Gross Domestic Product. The Durbin-Watson statistics (R2 = 0.9910 = 1.3686) suggest that the model is not spurious and it is devoid of positive and negative autocorrelation (DW = 1.3686 > dl = 1.07 and DW = 1.5033 ?-?du = 2.17). Therefore, it can produce meaningful result when used for forecasting a positive relationship between gross domestic product, all share index and market capitalization with a 99.1% R-square value. Significant Positive connection between all share index, market capitalization, the number of equities and gross domestic product suggests that government policies and bills aimed towards rapid development of the capital market should be initiated.展开更多
The unit root can lead to major problems in economic time series analyses. I obtain the asymptotic distributions of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator when the true model is trend stationary for the following ...The unit root can lead to major problems in economic time series analyses. I obtain the asymptotic distributions of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator when the true model is trend stationary for the following three cases: 1) the null model is a random walk without drift, and the auxiliary regression model does not contain a constant;2) the null model is a random walk with drift, and the auxiliary regression model contains a constant;and 3) the null model is a random walk with drift, and the auxiliary regression model contains both a constant and a time trend. In the third case, the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator is determined by the first order of the autocorrelation, and we can distinguish between the random walk and trend stationary models, unlike in previous studies. Based on these results, the real US gross domestic product is analyzed. A time trend model with autoregressive error terms is chosen. The results suggest that the impacts of a shock can become larger than the original shock in some periods and then gradually decline. However, the impacts continue for a long period, and policy makers should account for this to design better economic policies.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(1047112610671176).
文摘In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is derived under the weak conditions.
文摘Globally,economies have become complex and new technologies have transformed and facilitated the modernization of economies.In the previous literature,economic complexity approach has become one of the popular tools in the development and innovation studies of economic geography.Researchers have found that green technology and eco-innovation approaches should be used to decisively reduce the effects of carbon emissions on the environment.However,debates about the impact of economic complexity on environment remain unsettled since some emerging production technologies have far-reaching pollution effects.This study explored the impacts of economic complexity on environmental sustainability in Turkey using the novel Fourier-based approaches,namely:Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller(FADF)and Fourier Autoregressive-Distributed Lag(FARDL)models.The Fourier-based approaches indicated that all variables(economic complexity index(ECI),GDP,energy consumption,and CO_(2)emission(CO_(2)E))are cointegrated in the long run.Additionally,the FARDL model implied that(i)in the long run,the effect of ECI(as a proxy for economic complexity),GDP(as a proxy for economic growth),and energy consumption on CO_(2)E(as a proxy for environmental quality)are important;(ii)economic complexity decreases environmental degradation in Turkey;and(iii)economic growth and energy consumption negatively affect environmental quality.The results also showed that economic complexity could be used as a policy tool to tackle environmental degradation.The findings also revealed that the fossil fuelbased economy will continue to expand and undermine Turkey’s efforts to meet its net zero emission target by 2053.Therefore,policy-makers should take actions and establish diversified economic,environmental,and energy strategies.For policy insights,the Turkish governments can use the combination of tax exemptions and technical support systems to support knowledge creation and the diffusion of environmentally friendly technologies The governments can also impose strict environmental regulations on the knowledge development phases.
文摘A time series analysis method was used to establish an econometric model for SINOPEC＇S stock price tendency on the domestic securities market under the background of sharp oil price rises in recent years. The model was proven to be a non-stationary time series and unit root process, as tested with the Dickey-Fuller method, and the result of a practical case showed that this model could well reflect SINOPEC stock price tendency on the securities market of China. It would be a guide for research and prediction of stock price tendency.
文摘A stock exchange is an exchange where stock brokers and traders can buy and sell shares of stock, bonds, and other securities. All listings are included in the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Shares index. In terms of market capitalization, the Nigerian Stock Exchange is the third largest stock exchange in Africa. Objectives: The paper assesses the impact of Nigerian Stock Market (all share index, market capitalization, and number of equities) on Gross domestic product (Economic Growth). Materials and Methods: Regression analysis and ordinary least square technique were employed. Result and Discussion: The series was stationary at 1%, 5%, and 10% α level;the residuals were normally distributed but not serially correlated at 5% α level. All Share Index, Market Capitalization and Total Number of listed Equities have a joint and individual significant effect on Economic Growth (Gross Domestic Product) with Total Number of listed Equities having a negative (opposite) linear relationship with the Gross Domestic Product. The Durbin-Watson statistics (R2 = 0.9910 = 1.3686) suggest that the model is not spurious and it is devoid of positive and negative autocorrelation (DW = 1.3686 > dl = 1.07 and DW = 1.5033 ?-?du = 2.17). Therefore, it can produce meaningful result when used for forecasting a positive relationship between gross domestic product, all share index and market capitalization with a 99.1% R-square value. Significant Positive connection between all share index, market capitalization, the number of equities and gross domestic product suggests that government policies and bills aimed towards rapid development of the capital market should be initiated.
文摘The unit root can lead to major problems in economic time series analyses. I obtain the asymptotic distributions of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator when the true model is trend stationary for the following three cases: 1) the null model is a random walk without drift, and the auxiliary regression model does not contain a constant;2) the null model is a random walk with drift, and the auxiliary regression model contains a constant;and 3) the null model is a random walk with drift, and the auxiliary regression model contains both a constant and a time trend. In the third case, the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator is determined by the first order of the autocorrelation, and we can distinguish between the random walk and trend stationary models, unlike in previous studies. Based on these results, the real US gross domestic product is analyzed. A time trend model with autoregressive error terms is chosen. The results suggest that the impacts of a shock can become larger than the original shock in some periods and then gradually decline. However, the impacts continue for a long period, and policy makers should account for this to design better economic policies.
