2024年1月1日能登半岛M_(W)7.5地震作为一个可能的“龙王”事件

本文试图探讨,从“龙王”理论的角度看,2024年1月1日日本能登半岛M_(W)7.5地震是否可被视为一次“龙王”事件.本文分析了日本气象厅(JMA)2004年以来的地震矩张量解目录,针对样本数不够多的情况,用“级序分析”方法确定这一M_(W)7.5事件是否显著偏离Gutenberg-Richter幂律.结果表明在2006至2024年期间,M_(W)7.5地震还不能被视为显著的“龙王”事件;但在2021至2024年期间,该地震作为一次“龙王”事件特点十分明显,这一结果似乎与2020年底以来出现了复杂的前兆行为的报道吻合,标志着“龙王”事件的某种可预报性.本文建议,根据以往的研究结果,对这次地震的震源过程和余震序列进行详细刻画,附之以对地震前兆的回溯性研究,或可有助于“地震龙王”理论本身的发展和地震预测研究的进步.本文还讨论了“黑天鹅”事件、“龙王”事件及“灰犀牛”事件的相互关系,这几个概念是近年来减灾领域讨论较多的概念.

Reproduction of the Sedimentary Disturbance Phenomenon of the Diexi Ancient Landslide-Dammed Lake under Earthquake

Valuable geological and environmental information can be obtained from the 200 m thick lacustrine sediments in the Diexi lake(an ancient landslide-dammed lake) of the Minjiang River. The shaking table test method was employed to study the disturbance phenomena which occurred in the Diexi lake sediments. The results show that the disturbance phenomena were caused by liquefaction-induced flows in the unconsolidated lacustrine sediments, due to triggering by earthquakes. The deformations only occurred in unconsolidated sediment layers and not in consolidated layers. This means that a consolidated layer cannot be liquefied and disturbed again by an earthquake for a second time. The disturbance on one layer corresponds to only one earthquake. The temporal occurrence of earthquakes could be determined by disturbance layers generated at different ages. In total, 10 disturbed layers were found in the lacustrine sediments of the Diexi lake. The experiments showed that there were more than 10 earthquakes between 30 ka B.P. and 15 ka B.P. in the Diexi lake area based on the dating of the disturbed sediment layers.

South Segment of Minjiang Fault and Diexi Earthquake in 1933

Diexi earthquake(M7.5)in 1933 is a great event that occurred at the east border of Qinghai- Xizang Plateau in the 20th century.There are obviously different opinions about the shape ofisoseismal lines and the genetic fault of this earthquke.Based on the study of the newlyfound north-south trending active fault and ground fissures of Diexi earthquake,this papertends to hold that,as the southward extension of Miujiang fault,this north-south trendingactive fault might be the genetic fault of this event.

Imaging the rupture process of the 10 January 2018 Mw7.5 Swan island, Honduras earthquake

The 10 January 2018 Mw7.5 Swan island,Honduras earthquake occurred on the Swan island fault,which is a transform plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates.Here we back-project the rupture process of the earthquake using dense seismic stations in Alaska,and find that the earthquake ruptured at least three faults(three stages)for a duration of~40 s.The rupture speed for the longest fault(stage 3)is as fast as 5 km/s,which is much faster than the local shear wave velocity of~4 km/s.Supershear rupture was incidentally observed on long and straight strike-slip faults.This study shows a supershear rupture that occured on a strike-slip fault with moderate length,implying that supershear rupture might commonly occur on large strike-slip earthquakes.The common occurrence of supershear rupture on strike-slip earthquakes will challenge present understanding of crack physics,as well as strong ground motion evaluation in earthquake engineering.

Re-discussion on the Jiaochang Arcuate Structure, Sichuan Province, and the Seismogenic Structure for Diexi Earthquake in 1933

The Jiaochang arcuate structure is one of the numerous arcuate structural belts in Sichuan. The present paper gives a further argument about the characteristics of that arcuate structure and the new activity of the Songpinggou fault and affirms that the Songpinggou fault is an active fault in the Holocene epoch. The Diexi M 7.5 earthquake took place in 1933 on the west wing of that arcuate structure, near the apex of the arc. Many authors have given quite different opinions about the genetic structure of that earthquake. The authors have made on the spot investigations time and again over recent years. Besides this, the authors have also further studied the shape of intensity contour lines, the distribution characteristics of ground surface seismic hazards, the left lateral dislocation of buildings along the Songpinggou fault, the NW trending ground fissures that developed on the ground surface after earthquake, and so on. On this basis, it is still considered that the seismogenic fault of the 1933 Diexi M 7.5 earthquake was the Songpinggou fault on the west wing of the Jiaochang arcuate structure.

A Discussion of Some Problems Concerning the Tosonhu Lake M_S7.5 Earthquake in 1937

The East Kuulun active fault zone, which lies in the valley of the Kuulun Mountains above an elevation of 4,000 meters, is an important active fault zone in the Northeast Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. The 1937, the Tosonhu lake Ms7. 5 earthquake occurred in the eastern segment of the East Kuulun active fault zone. Four field investigations were launched on this seism in 1963, 1971, 1980, and between 1986 and 1990. However, due to different extents of the investigations, four different conclusions have been gained. Concerning the length aspect of the surface rupture zone of this earthquake, the unanimous consensus is that its eastern end lies in the west side of the main Ridge of the A ＇nyemaqen Mountains, but opinions about the western end and the location of the macro-epicenter are different. Based on investigation and comprehensive study, a series of scientific problems like geometric and kinetic characteristics, the length of the rupture zone, the maximum sinistral horizontal displacement and the macroepicenter were re-evaluated. We believe that the total length of this earthquake＇s surface deformation zone is at least 240km; the western end of the zone is at the west of Wnsuwuwoguole; the maximum sinistral horizontal displacement is 8m to the west of Baerhalasha gully on the east side of Sanchakou; the maximum vertical displacement is 3.5m in the south of Sanchakou and the macro-epicenter is in Sanchakou.

Insights into the long-term stability of landslide dams on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China——A case study of the Diexi area

Landslide dams,especially long-term stable landslide dams,have been recognized as important contributors to regional geomorphological evolution.Here,the Diexi area,a long-term stable dam-prone area located in upstream of the Minjiang River on the eastern Tibetan Plateau,was adopted to reveal reasons that landslide dams are concentrated in this area and maintain long-term stability via detailed field investigations,landslide dam sampling,unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)images,and digital surface models(DSM).The results show the controlling factors that the slopes are prone to sliding and rock mass structure deterioration including lithological combination mode,slope structure,topographic conditions,a series of NNE-trending radial fissures and hydrological conditions.Fault activities,which have caused many earthquakes,are the main inducing factor.Landslide dams are prone to occurrence in the Diexi area owing to the combined effect of the narrow channels,the large landslide dam volume and the rock fragments.The river flow,and the landslide dam volume,material,structure,and parameters control the stability of landslide dams.The landslide dam consists of various sizes of boulders and all landslide dams exhibit an obvious inverse grading sequence,and this size combination could consume most of the flow energy,and consequently protect the dam from incision.Additionally,a total of seven knickpoints were formed by landslide dams,and the longitudinal gradient upstream of every landslide dam was found to decrease by the action of knickpoint.In the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,there are numerous landslide dams existed for hundreds or thousands of years.Studies on the long-term stable landslide dams in the Diexi area could provide experience for studying similar kinds of landslide dams in this region.

青藏高原东缘1933年叠溪Ms7.5级地震发震构造再研究

青藏高原东缘1933年叠溪7.5级地震的发震构造至今仍然难以琢磨,前人或将其归因于NW向松坪沟断裂的左旋走滑活动、或南北向岷江断裂左旋走滑活动,但地表同震破裂、地震地质、地震等烈度图等调查和研究结果都不支持这种走滑型断层的地震成因。本文基于叠溪地震区构造地貌和湖相地层断层调查,结合古地震和历史地震的研究结果,提出了与2013年四川芦山Ms 7.0级地震类似的发震构造模型,即隐伏断坡型逆冲断层发震构造模型,认为在叠溪震区10～15km深部隐伏一条西倾的逆冲断坡,其向东逆冲作用导致了叠溪地区频繁的地震活动。这个发震模型有待深部地球物理测深资料和地表大地测量资料的验证。

珍贵的史料--陶然士的《1933年8月叠溪地震及震后情况》

英国传教士陶然士(T.Torrance)曾长期在中国四川居住,亲身经历过1933年四川叠溪地震。1934年7月,他又到地震现场进行考察,事后写成The Tieh-chi earthquake of August 1933 and afterwards(1933年8月叠溪地震及震后情况)一文,同年11月发表在The West China Missionary News(华西教会新闻)上。本文介绍了陶然士的生平和他在叠溪地震时的经历,披露了《1933年8月叠溪地震及震后情况》一文的主要内容,并进行了评述。陶然士在他的文章中对叠溪地震灾害及其次生水灾的记述基本客观真实,不少细节可以与地质学家常隆庆的《四川叠溪地震调查记》以及后人的研究成果相互印证,具有一定的科学价值,是又一份珍贵的地震史料。并对进一步发掘有关地震史料等有关问题提出了建议。

2021年青海玛多M_(S)7.5地震矩心矩张量解

根据中国地震台网中心测定,北京时间2021年5月22日02时04分,中国青海省果洛州玛多县发生了震级达到M7.4的地震,震中位于(98.34°E,34.59°N),震源深度为17 km。美国地质调查局(United States Geological Survey,缩写为USGS)国家地震信息中心(National Earthquake Information Centre,缩写为NEIC)也给出了相应的结果,其标定的发震时间为北京时间2021年5月22日02时04分13秒(协调世界时:2021年5月21日18时04分13秒),震中位于(98.2548°E,34.5864°N),震源深度为10 km。震后16小时内在震中100 km范围内共发生M>4.3的余震10次。

Late Pleistocene environmental information on the Diexi paleo-dammed lake of the upper Minjiang River in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

In 1999, Diexi paleo-dammed lake(2349 m a.s.l.) was discovered around Diexi town along the Minjiang River in Sichuan province. Diexi is located where the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin meet. The dammed lake was formed during the Last Glacial Maximum of the Late Pleistocene(~30,000 years ago) and began to empty about 15,000 years ago. The lacustrine sediments(up to 240 m thick) preserve abundant paleoenvironment information. In this paper, a mass of oxygen isotopes and 14 C dating from drilled cores are analyzed and discussed. The δ18 O curve on the paleo climate from this section is comparable with the coeval paleo climatic curves of ice cores and karsts in China and others. Furthermore, the physical model testing has confirmed that the disturbed zones in the core are caused by strong earthquakes occurred at least 10 times, which implies strong crustal deformation, as an important driving force, affecting climate change. This study provides a new window to observe East Asian monsoon formation, paleoenvironmental evolution and the global climate change.

A Reappraisal of the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake in the Northwestern Himalaya Syntaxis

The collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates caused a massive surface uplift and formed the Himalayas.Throughout the 2500-km long Himalaya mountain range,significant earthquake hazards have occurred either on the interface between the plates,above the interface at the Himalayan wedge.

四川叠溪松坪沟断层的厘定

1933年8月25日四川叠溪发生M_(S)7.5地震,一种代表性的观点认为松坪沟断层为此次地震的发震构造。而对于松坪沟断层的存在、发育分布以及其活动性,学者们至今仍存在一定的分歧。本文基于前人研究成果,对松坪沟中下游(松坪沟沟口至墨石寨)进行了详细的野外地质调查,并结合地球物理探测,证实了松坪沟断层的存在;松坪沟断层整体走向NW,沿松坪沟呈三段斜列式展布(NW段、中间段和SE段),其NW段倾向NE,中间段和SE段倾向SW,倾角约55°-80°;松坪沟断层以左旋走滑运动为主、兼逆冲性质,在距今两万年以来有过活动。最后通过对松坪沟流域地貌参数分析表明,该区地貌发育上处于幼年期晚期和壮年期,构造活动强烈,且松坪沟断层中间段和SE段的活动性较NW段强烈。

上海徐家汇观象台记录的1933年四川叠溪地震参数计算

地震学者对1933年叠溪大地震进行了大量研究,由于资料匮乏,学术界至今对该地震的震源位置、震级、发震时间3要素有不同看法。本文利用上海徐家汇观象台1933年四川叠溪大地震三分向记录,通过对叠溪地震事件图纸的重新分析校核,利用IASP91全球走时模型对发震时间、震中距和震级3要素重新行计算和反演,得出的定位结果为:发震时刻为1933年8月25日7时50分15秒、震中距为16.25°、震级为M_(S)7.49。该结果和其他研究学者在发震时刻和震中距上偏差较大,发震时刻相差17 s,震中距相差1°左右,两者偏差较大,究其原因是采用的方法不同,前人是基于宏观资料、现场调查以及后续小震反演得到的结果。

断裂带内外温差法在震前红外异常研究中的应用

以2000年姚安MS6.5地震、1997年玛尼MS7.5地震为例,应用断裂带内外卫星红外亮温差(下文简称亮温差)值分析法,研究震中附近活动断裂上震前卫星红外异常的时间演化过程。分析结果表明,在正常时期红河断裂带内外的亮温差值在0～1.5℃范围内波动,而在异常表现很强烈的时段,沿红河断裂带内外的亮温差达到3℃以上,比正常时期高出2℃左右。通过对1997年11月8日玛尼7.5级地震发震断裂——马尔盖茶卡断层东段1996,1997,1998年3年带内平均值和带内外的亮温差值的对比研究发现,由于受大面积降雪的影响,1997年10月初至11月中旬,断裂带内平均亮温比1996和1998年同期亮温都要低,但断裂带内外亮温差值却比1996和1998年同期高出2～3℃左右。地震之后相对亮温差很快回到正常状态。运用同样的方法对华北和川滇近几年未发生强震的几条重要的活动断裂带的卫星红外亮温特征进行了研究,未发现类似震前红外异常的情况。

岷江叠溪古堰塞湖的发现

1933年8月25日,四川岷江上游叠溪发生了一次7.5级地震。在叠溪地震引发的较场大滑坡上覆盖有较古老的厚土层,国内学者对其成因有不同解释。作者在开展叠溪地震滑坡调研中,发现并确认这是一套古堰塞湖相沉积物,当时的堰塞坝处在原叠溪古镇至下游马老顶乡一带长达数千米的河段,因此定名为叠溪古堰塞湖。古堰塞湖相沉积物厚度最大可达200余米,为一套层理清晰的粉土-黏土层。由叠溪向上游约30km河段,沿江断续可见这套沉积物,且有明显的相变。14C测年,湖相沉积物底部形成时代距今22ka,顶部距今约10ka,据此判断叠溪古堰塞湖维持了12ka。此外作者在较场一带还发现了以湖相沉积物为"基座"的五级"阶地",这些"阶地"上保存完好的二元结构河流相沉积物。该文较系统地介绍了叠溪古堰塞湖的基本特征,初步论述了其中包含的地质环境信息。

岷江断裂南段与1933年叠溪地震研究

1933年叠溪75级地震是发生在青藏高原东南缘的重大事件。对这次地震的等烈度线形态及与之相关的发震构造的认识有着明显的分歧。本文基于野外新发现的南北向活动断裂以及叠溪地震地面破裂的研究。

四川较场弧形构造与1933年叠溪地震发震构造的再讨论

较场弧形构造是四川众多弧形构造带之一。本文对该弧形构造的特征及其西翼发育的松平沟断裂的新活动性作了进一步论证 ,确认松平沟断裂属全新世活动断裂。该弧形构造西翼靠弧顶部位 1933年曾发生过叠溪 7 5级地震。前人对该次地震的发震构造众说纷纭。作者通过近年来在现场的多次考察 ,并对该次地震的等烈度线形态、地表震害展布特征、建筑物沿松平沟断裂的左旋位错、震后地表发育的北西向地震地裂缝等现象的进一步研究认为 ,1933年叠溪 7 5级地震的发震构造仍为较场弧形构造西翼的松平沟断裂。

1933年叠溪地震的发震位置、震源机制与区域构造

1933年发生于中国四川省境内的叠溪M7.5大地震造成了人民生命财产的重大损失.然而限于资料匮乏,人们对此次地震的发震构造和震源机制解的认识尚不统一.本文收集整理了当时全球各地震台站对此次大地震的记录,对叠溪地震进行了重新定位,确定的震中位置为31.9°N,103.6°E.挑选具有P波初动符号的台站记录,利用格点尝试法得到了叠溪地震震源机制解的节面之一呈北北西走向,范围为N5°—30°W.结合该区域地质资料给出的岷江断裂南段为近南北向的事实,以此节面为叠溪地震的断层面,我们认为叠溪地震的发震构造系以左旋走滑为主兼具逆冲分量的岷江断裂南段.跨岷山地块10年尺度的GPS观测结果显示,虎牙断裂具有2mm/a的地壳缩短率,对应于岷山第四纪以来的强烈隆升.1933年叠溪地震表现出的岷江断裂的左旋特性与现今GPS测量结果的不一致,可能反映了龙门山与岷江两大断裂系蕴震过程中地壳形变场的相互作用,特别是龙门山断裂带在2008年汶川大地震孕震过程晚期对区域地壳形变场的调整.

茂县新磨特大滑坡-碎屑流的发育特征与运移机理

2017年6月24日茂县叠溪镇新磨村发生体积近800×10~4m^3的灾难性特大型滑坡-碎屑流灾害。通过现场调查、遥感解译和资料分析,本文对灾害发育的地质环境条件,崩滑危岩体及运移堆积特征,降雨及地震对崩滑的触发作用等进行了研究,探讨了影响碎屑流运动性的主要效应及其致灾机理,并评价了类似灾害的监测预警新方法。研究认为:(1)新磨村位于1933年叠溪MS7.5地震前已经存在的大型老滑坡堆积体上,多次历史强震和历年降雨循环使滑源区砂板岩坡体表层卸荷带失稳剥离,内部岩体完整性和强度进一步损伤劣化,滑源区在2003年之前已经发育了多条宽大裂缝,并存在显著滑前变形前兆,新磨滑坡本质上是一次后地震机制的灾难性高速岩质滑坡-碎屑流。(2)新磨基岩顺层滑坡体积约150×10~4m^3,但有约600×10~4m^3沟道老崩坡积体被刮铲、裹携。滑坡体高位撞击使老堆积体内"土拱效应"快速丧失并获得加速,"刮铲-裹携效应"促进了滑坡-碎屑流的流动性和扩散性,但大规模的裹携也限制了碎屑流运移得更远。这种冲击加载-刮铲裹携的破坏机制与1986年新滩滑坡、2000年易贡滑坡和2004年贵州纳雍左营滑坡等类似。(3)滑坡-碎屑流产生的地震信号分析可再现整个滑坡、冲击、运移、停积等全过程,震前InSAR形变资料分析则揭示了显著的变形前兆,两者结合应是未来这类超视距崩滑-碎屑流灾害早期识别、评价和预警的新方法。(4)鉴于滑后新磨流域仍然存在大量新老裂缝及其切割而成的危险块体,建议立即开展详细的灾害调查、风险评价和监测预警工作,避免类似灾害重复发生。