In 1993,the World Bank released a global report on the efficacy of health promotion,introducing the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)as a novel indicator.The DALY,a composite metric incorporating temporal and quali...In 1993,the World Bank released a global report on the efficacy of health promotion,introducing the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)as a novel indicator.The DALY,a composite metric incorporating temporal and qualitative data,is grounded in preferences regarding disability status.This review delineates the algorithm used to calculate the value of the proposed DALY synthetic indicator and elucidates key methodological challenges associated with its application.In contrast to the quality-adjusted life years approach,derived from multi-attribute utility theory,the DALY stands as an independent synthetic indicator that adopts the assumptions of the Time Trade Off utility technique to define Disability Weights.Claiming to rely on no mathematical or economic theory,DALY users appear to have exempted themselves from verifying whether this indicator meets the classical properties required of all indicators,notably content validity,reliability,specificity,and sensitivity.The DALY concept emerged primarily to facilitate comparisons of the health impacts of various diseases globally within the framework of the Global Burden of Disease initiative,leading to numerous publications in international literature.Despite widespread adoption,the DALY synthetic indicator has prompted significant methodological concerns since its inception,manifesting in inconsistent and non-reproducible results.Given the substantial diffusion of the DALY indicator and its critical role in health impact assessments,a reassessment is warranted.This reconsideration is imperative for enhancing the robustness and reliability of public health decisionmaking processes.展开更多
Objective The study investigated the burden of smear-positive pulmonary TB and itsinfectivity using DALY(disability-adjusted life year) as an indicator. Methods An assumedcohort of 2 000 cases was set up based ...Objective The study investigated the burden of smear-positive pulmonary TB and itsinfectivity using DALY(disability-adjusted life year) as an indicator. Methods An assumedcohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on the age-specific incidence of 794 newly registeredsmear-positive cases in Beijing in 1994. Prognostic trees and model diagrams of infectivityunder natural history and DOTS(directly observed treatment, short-course) strategy wereestablished according to the epidemiological evidence. Results The results showed that 29. 6%of DALYs would be neglected if the burden caused by the infectivity was not considered.Conclusion DOTS strategy may reduce 97.3% of the number of potential cases infected,92.9% of DALYs related to TB-patients themselves, and 99.9% of DALYs caused by TB’sinfectivity as well.展开更多
The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabil...The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabilistic multiplier model.Then,disability adjusted life years(DALYs),direct and indirect economic loss caused by this disease were calculated and analyzed.Till September 2017,the estimated total number of H7N9 cases was 2952[median,90%probability range(PR):1487-22094],which was 11.8 times(5.9-88.4)as large as the reported number.The median morbidity was estimated to be 4(90%PR:2-29)per 100000 population.The total DALYs loss was 16548 years,and the total economic loss(direct and indirect)was estimated to be RMB 1044618758(US$16.7 M).The average economic loss for per case and for per year was RMB 353868(US$56440)and RMB 232137502(US$37.0 M),respectively.The actual burden of human H7N9 infections was much heavier than what was documented.Our study provided an approach to estimate actual burden of infectious diseases using laboratory-confirmation.展开更多
Objective To define TB control priorities using cost-effectiveness and burden of disease.Methods An assumed cohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on age-specific incidence of 794 newly registered smear-positive cas...Objective To define TB control priorities using cost-effectiveness and burden of disease.Methods An assumed cohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on age-specific incidence of 794 newly registered smear-positive cases in Beijing in1994.Prognostic trees and model diagrams of infectivity with natural history and DOTS intervention were constructed based on the epidemiological parameters.Results DOTS reduced 89.19% of YLL,78.90% of YLD,and 99.98% of infectivity BOD.One DALY could be saved with 45.70% Yuan by DOTS with 3% discount.Sensitivity analysis showed that discount had effect on CER.Weight of age was insensitive to CER.The higher the DOTS coured rate,the more the cost-effectiveness.Conclusions DOTS is a good cost-effectiveness TB control strategy.Cost-effectiveness and burden of disease can be used to define TB control priorities.展开更多
<strong>Background:</strong> In Greece, the provision of mental health services is limited to people residing in rural and remote areas. The operation of Mobile Mental Health Units (MMHUs) has been introdu...<strong>Background:</strong> In Greece, the provision of mental health services is limited to people residing in rural and remote areas. The operation of Mobile Mental Health Units (MMHUs) has been introduced in the Cyclades islands. It is an innovative policy intervention that has been shown to be effective and efficient internationally. <strong>Objective:</strong> The aim was to evaluate the operation of MMHUs in the Cyclades islands based on real-world evidence (RWE), from a societal perspective. <strong>Methods: </strong>A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed where outcomes and costs were elaborated and classified based on two comparators, 1) with MMHUs’ operation and 2) without MMHUs’ operation. Clinical primary outcomes were based on RWE data and were elaborated for the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) values calculation, for a 12 months’ time horizon. Data descriptive statistics were performed with SPSS Statistics 22.0. Direct medical, non-medical and indirect costs were incorporated. Unit costs and monetary values were extracted from published data. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to test the robustness of the results. <strong>Results:</strong> The operation of MMHUs in the Cyclades islands led to an incremental cost of €12,250.78 per DALY averted. A substantial higher increase is observed in the direct non-medical costs of the non-MMHUs’ operation where patients had to pay approximately €2,602 per capita annually for their transportation and accommodation due to hospitalization and outpatient care. Informal care expenses are 3 fold increasing in the non-MMHUs’ operation arm. Both direct non-medical and informal care costs correspond to high out of pocket payments totally covered by the patients. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the decision does not change when we varied the unit costs by ±10%. <strong>Conclusions:</strong> The operation of MMHUs appears to be a cost-effective option for treating patients with mental disorders in remote areas and islands in Greece. MMHUs appear to overcome the existing NHS structural inefficiencies by minimizing public expenditures and patients’ income losses by preventing and improving their mental health status.展开更多
Introduction: Hematological malignancies (HM) are relatively frequent nosological entities within the structure of morbidity by malignant tumors, exhibiting a severe evolution, restrained prognosis and negative socio-...Introduction: Hematological malignancies (HM) are relatively frequent nosological entities within the structure of morbidity by malignant tumors, exhibiting a severe evolution, restrained prognosis and negative socio-economic impact in the advanced stages and phases. Objective: The objective of the study was to identify the epidemiological patterns, and to evaluate the epidemiological trends and disease burden issues of HM in the Republic of Moldova and worldwide. Materials and Methods: The following research methods were used: epidemiological, descriptive statistics, clinico-analytic. The diagnosis was proved in all cases by histopathological, cytological, cytogenetic, molecular and immunophenotyping examinations. The qualitative type researches were performed and enriched by the narrative synthesis of the data. From the specialized international bibliographic sources and official statistics concerning HM. The narrative review of the reference sources was fulfilled in the form of a synthesis. Results: The number of newly diagnosed and followed-up patients with HM at the Institute of Oncology in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 amounted respectively to 725, 802, 613, 628, 536 and 528, the incidence (new cases per 100,000 population) being 17.6, 19.5, 14.9, 17.7, 15.1 and 20.3. In 2021 HM constituted 6.2% of all newly-diagnosed cases with malignant tumors in the Republic of Moldova. In the same year Hodgkin lymphoma was diagnosed in 10.04% of cases, non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas—in 31.63%, multiple myeloma and plasma cells neoplasms—in 7.77%, lymphoid leukemias—in 17.42%, myeloid leukemias—in 12.31%, monocytic leukemias—in 0.95%, and other leukemias—in 16.29%. In 2019 the male rate was 51.5%, and the female rate—48.5%. Within 2 years males were 266 (50.4%), females—262 (49.6%). The age of 50 - 79 years prevailed in both genders (males—65%, females—72.5%). The children constituted 4.0% of the newly diagnosed cases, 4.8% of those under the follow-up at the end of the year 2019 and 6.4% of the newly diagnosed cases in 2021. The disease span from the onset to diagnosis ranged between 1 - 24 months and constituted on average 5.63 months, without a significant difference as compared to 2019 (5.76 months). The incidence of HM in Western countries is 14 - 19 new cases per 100,000 population (4% of all cases with malignant tumors). The incidence of non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas increased by 45% between 2006 and 2016, from 319,078 to 461,000 cases. Between 2006 and 2016, the incidence of leukemias increased by 26%, from 37,000,000 to 467,000 cases. Conclusions: The epidemiological study revealed slightly lower morbidity by HM in the Republic of Moldova as compared to the West European countries mainly due to the migration of a workable population. The patients with malignant lymphomas, male gender and age categories of 50 - 79 years proved to be commonly registered epidemiological patterns. The narrative analysis of the literature revealed that patients with HM may experience a considerable disease burden with a negative impact on their employment status, working productivity and annual household income.展开更多
目的分析1990—2019亚洲主要国家及全球宫颈癌疾病负担,为制定宫颈癌防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集1990—2019年全球疾病负担研究(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,利用发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years...目的分析1990—2019亚洲主要国家及全球宫颈癌疾病负担,为制定宫颈癌防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集1990—2019年全球疾病负担研究(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,利用发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)等指标定量评估宫颈癌的疾病负担情况,采用估计百分百变化(estimated annual percent change,EAPC)分析疾病负担时间变化趋势。结果1990—2019年,全球宫颈癌标化发病率从7.64/10万下降至6.81/10万,标化死亡率从4.46/10万降低至3.40/10万,标化DALY率从139.98/10万下降至107.20/10万,年平均降低分别为0.39%、0.96%、0.94%(EAPC<0,P<0.05)。亚洲主要国家中,中国的标化发病率从4.20/10万上升至5.53/10万,平均每年增长1.63%(EAPC>0,P>0.05)。中国宫颈癌的死亡数从2.64万增加到5.34万,相对增长1.02倍,全球及亚洲主要国家标化死亡率、标化DALY率均呈逐年下降趋势,而中国未出现下降趋势。相关分析显示,发病率与社会人口指数(socio-demographic index,SDI)无明显相关性(ρ=-0.13,P=0.11),死亡率与SDI呈负相关(ρ=-0.74,P<0.001),DALY与SDI也呈负相关(ρ=-0.77,P<0.001)。结论中国宫颈癌的标化发病率、死亡率逐年增加,疾病负担呈上升趋势,应积极采取科学有效的防控措施,降低宫颈癌疾病负担。展开更多
目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据...目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。展开更多
文摘In 1993,the World Bank released a global report on the efficacy of health promotion,introducing the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)as a novel indicator.The DALY,a composite metric incorporating temporal and qualitative data,is grounded in preferences regarding disability status.This review delineates the algorithm used to calculate the value of the proposed DALY synthetic indicator and elucidates key methodological challenges associated with its application.In contrast to the quality-adjusted life years approach,derived from multi-attribute utility theory,the DALY stands as an independent synthetic indicator that adopts the assumptions of the Time Trade Off utility technique to define Disability Weights.Claiming to rely on no mathematical or economic theory,DALY users appear to have exempted themselves from verifying whether this indicator meets the classical properties required of all indicators,notably content validity,reliability,specificity,and sensitivity.The DALY concept emerged primarily to facilitate comparisons of the health impacts of various diseases globally within the framework of the Global Burden of Disease initiative,leading to numerous publications in international literature.Despite widespread adoption,the DALY synthetic indicator has prompted significant methodological concerns since its inception,manifesting in inconsistent and non-reproducible results.Given the substantial diffusion of the DALY indicator and its critical role in health impact assessments,a reassessment is warranted.This reconsideration is imperative for enhancing the robustness and reliability of public health decisionmaking processes.
文摘Objective The study investigated the burden of smear-positive pulmonary TB and itsinfectivity using DALY(disability-adjusted life year) as an indicator. Methods An assumedcohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on the age-specific incidence of 794 newly registeredsmear-positive cases in Beijing in 1994. Prognostic trees and model diagrams of infectivityunder natural history and DOTS(directly observed treatment, short-course) strategy wereestablished according to the epidemiological evidence. Results The results showed that 29. 6%of DALYs would be neglected if the burden caused by the infectivity was not considered.Conclusion DOTS strategy may reduce 97.3% of the number of potential cases infected,92.9% of DALYs related to TB-patients themselves, and 99.9% of DALYs caused by TB’sinfectivity as well.
基金supported by the Science&Technology Demonstration Project for Emerging Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention under Grant(BE2015714&BE2017749)supported by the Key Medical Discipline of Jiangsu Science&Technology Project under Grant(epidemiology,ZDXKA2016008)+1 种基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant(2015ZX09101044)the Jiangsu Provincial Medical Youth Talents under Grant(QNRC2016539)
文摘The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabilistic multiplier model.Then,disability adjusted life years(DALYs),direct and indirect economic loss caused by this disease were calculated and analyzed.Till September 2017,the estimated total number of H7N9 cases was 2952[median,90%probability range(PR):1487-22094],which was 11.8 times(5.9-88.4)as large as the reported number.The median morbidity was estimated to be 4(90%PR:2-29)per 100000 population.The total DALYs loss was 16548 years,and the total economic loss(direct and indirect)was estimated to be RMB 1044618758(US$16.7 M).The average economic loss for per case and for per year was RMB 353868(US$56440)and RMB 232137502(US$37.0 M),respectively.The actual burden of human H7N9 infections was much heavier than what was documented.Our study provided an approach to estimate actual burden of infectious diseases using laboratory-confirmation.
文摘Objective To define TB control priorities using cost-effectiveness and burden of disease.Methods An assumed cohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on age-specific incidence of 794 newly registered smear-positive cases in Beijing in1994.Prognostic trees and model diagrams of infectivity with natural history and DOTS intervention were constructed based on the epidemiological parameters.Results DOTS reduced 89.19% of YLL,78.90% of YLD,and 99.98% of infectivity BOD.One DALY could be saved with 45.70% Yuan by DOTS with 3% discount.Sensitivity analysis showed that discount had effect on CER.Weight of age was insensitive to CER.The higher the DOTS coured rate,the more the cost-effectiveness.Conclusions DOTS is a good cost-effectiveness TB control strategy.Cost-effectiveness and burden of disease can be used to define TB control priorities.
文摘<strong>Background:</strong> In Greece, the provision of mental health services is limited to people residing in rural and remote areas. The operation of Mobile Mental Health Units (MMHUs) has been introduced in the Cyclades islands. It is an innovative policy intervention that has been shown to be effective and efficient internationally. <strong>Objective:</strong> The aim was to evaluate the operation of MMHUs in the Cyclades islands based on real-world evidence (RWE), from a societal perspective. <strong>Methods: </strong>A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed where outcomes and costs were elaborated and classified based on two comparators, 1) with MMHUs’ operation and 2) without MMHUs’ operation. Clinical primary outcomes were based on RWE data and were elaborated for the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) values calculation, for a 12 months’ time horizon. Data descriptive statistics were performed with SPSS Statistics 22.0. Direct medical, non-medical and indirect costs were incorporated. Unit costs and monetary values were extracted from published data. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to test the robustness of the results. <strong>Results:</strong> The operation of MMHUs in the Cyclades islands led to an incremental cost of €12,250.78 per DALY averted. A substantial higher increase is observed in the direct non-medical costs of the non-MMHUs’ operation where patients had to pay approximately €2,602 per capita annually for their transportation and accommodation due to hospitalization and outpatient care. Informal care expenses are 3 fold increasing in the non-MMHUs’ operation arm. Both direct non-medical and informal care costs correspond to high out of pocket payments totally covered by the patients. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the decision does not change when we varied the unit costs by ±10%. <strong>Conclusions:</strong> The operation of MMHUs appears to be a cost-effective option for treating patients with mental disorders in remote areas and islands in Greece. MMHUs appear to overcome the existing NHS structural inefficiencies by minimizing public expenditures and patients’ income losses by preventing and improving their mental health status.
文摘Introduction: Hematological malignancies (HM) are relatively frequent nosological entities within the structure of morbidity by malignant tumors, exhibiting a severe evolution, restrained prognosis and negative socio-economic impact in the advanced stages and phases. Objective: The objective of the study was to identify the epidemiological patterns, and to evaluate the epidemiological trends and disease burden issues of HM in the Republic of Moldova and worldwide. Materials and Methods: The following research methods were used: epidemiological, descriptive statistics, clinico-analytic. The diagnosis was proved in all cases by histopathological, cytological, cytogenetic, molecular and immunophenotyping examinations. The qualitative type researches were performed and enriched by the narrative synthesis of the data. From the specialized international bibliographic sources and official statistics concerning HM. The narrative review of the reference sources was fulfilled in the form of a synthesis. Results: The number of newly diagnosed and followed-up patients with HM at the Institute of Oncology in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 amounted respectively to 725, 802, 613, 628, 536 and 528, the incidence (new cases per 100,000 population) being 17.6, 19.5, 14.9, 17.7, 15.1 and 20.3. In 2021 HM constituted 6.2% of all newly-diagnosed cases with malignant tumors in the Republic of Moldova. In the same year Hodgkin lymphoma was diagnosed in 10.04% of cases, non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas—in 31.63%, multiple myeloma and plasma cells neoplasms—in 7.77%, lymphoid leukemias—in 17.42%, myeloid leukemias—in 12.31%, monocytic leukemias—in 0.95%, and other leukemias—in 16.29%. In 2019 the male rate was 51.5%, and the female rate—48.5%. Within 2 years males were 266 (50.4%), females—262 (49.6%). The age of 50 - 79 years prevailed in both genders (males—65%, females—72.5%). The children constituted 4.0% of the newly diagnosed cases, 4.8% of those under the follow-up at the end of the year 2019 and 6.4% of the newly diagnosed cases in 2021. The disease span from the onset to diagnosis ranged between 1 - 24 months and constituted on average 5.63 months, without a significant difference as compared to 2019 (5.76 months). The incidence of HM in Western countries is 14 - 19 new cases per 100,000 population (4% of all cases with malignant tumors). The incidence of non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas increased by 45% between 2006 and 2016, from 319,078 to 461,000 cases. Between 2006 and 2016, the incidence of leukemias increased by 26%, from 37,000,000 to 467,000 cases. Conclusions: The epidemiological study revealed slightly lower morbidity by HM in the Republic of Moldova as compared to the West European countries mainly due to the migration of a workable population. The patients with malignant lymphomas, male gender and age categories of 50 - 79 years proved to be commonly registered epidemiological patterns. The narrative analysis of the literature revealed that patients with HM may experience a considerable disease burden with a negative impact on their employment status, working productivity and annual household income.
文摘目的分析1990—2019亚洲主要国家及全球宫颈癌疾病负担,为制定宫颈癌防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集1990—2019年全球疾病负担研究(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,利用发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)等指标定量评估宫颈癌的疾病负担情况,采用估计百分百变化(estimated annual percent change,EAPC)分析疾病负担时间变化趋势。结果1990—2019年,全球宫颈癌标化发病率从7.64/10万下降至6.81/10万,标化死亡率从4.46/10万降低至3.40/10万,标化DALY率从139.98/10万下降至107.20/10万,年平均降低分别为0.39%、0.96%、0.94%(EAPC<0,P<0.05)。亚洲主要国家中,中国的标化发病率从4.20/10万上升至5.53/10万,平均每年增长1.63%(EAPC>0,P>0.05)。中国宫颈癌的死亡数从2.64万增加到5.34万,相对增长1.02倍,全球及亚洲主要国家标化死亡率、标化DALY率均呈逐年下降趋势,而中国未出现下降趋势。相关分析显示,发病率与社会人口指数(socio-demographic index,SDI)无明显相关性(ρ=-0.13,P=0.11),死亡率与SDI呈负相关(ρ=-0.74,P<0.001),DALY与SDI也呈负相关(ρ=-0.77,P<0.001)。结论中国宫颈癌的标化发病率、死亡率逐年增加,疾病负担呈上升趋势,应积极采取科学有效的防控措施,降低宫颈癌疾病负担。
文摘目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。
