Long-term care policy simulation of disabled elderly

With the accelerating process of population aging in our country, the physical function of the elderly will decline, the possibility of suffering from acute and chronic diseases will increase, and the occurrence of disability will become more common and normal. The potential demand for elderly care is rapidly increasing. With the growth, the care of the disabled elderly has become increasingly acute. At the same time, due to the intensification of family miniaturization and population migration, the traditional family-based long-term care has been difficult to sustain. How to incorporate long-term care into our social security system as soon as possible has become the focus of the whole society. The thesis through the combination of public policy simulation methods and the research data, the long-term care insurance system implemented at the beginning of 2018 in Shanghai is a policy blueprint. It uses statistical software SPSS, MATLAB, etc. to achieve data collation, analysis and prediction, and at the same time integrates the pilot of the long-term care insurance system. The implementation of policies in cities such as Qingdao and Nantong has been simulated. Finally, on the basis of simulation results, suggestions have been made for the future development of China＇s long-term care insurance system.

关于失能老人状况与老年长期护理保险的研究综述

长期护理保险作为国际上解决失能老人护理需求的重要手段,已经成为老年社会保障领域研究的重点问题。文章梳理国内外关于我国失能老人的状况和老年长期护理保险的文献,研究目前相关研究的主流观点,包括失能老人基本状况、失能老人照料需求和服务供给、老年长期护理保险实现模式选择、老年长期护理保险制度制定、老年长期护理保险国际经验。研究结果表明,中国失能老人增多是中国人口老龄化过程中的必然趋势,存在失能老人照料供需失衡的状态,社会护理保险是解决老年护理问题的主要途径。