Natural Disaster Risk Monitoring for Immovable Cultural Relics Based on Digital Twin

Natural disaster risk monitoring is an important task for disaster prevention and reduction.In the case of immovable cultural relics,however,the feedback mechanism,risk factors,monitoring logic,and monitoring indicators of natural disaster risk monitoring are complex.How to achieve intelligent perception and monitoring of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics has always been a focus and a challenge for researchers.Based on the analysis of the concepts and issues related to the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics,this paper proposes a framework for natural disaster risk monitoring for immovable cultural relics based on the digital twin.This framework focuses on risk monitoring,including the physical entities of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics,monitoring indicators,and virtual entity construction.A platform for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics is proposed.Using the Puzhou Ancient City Site as a test bed,the proposed concept can be used for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics at different scales.

Climate Change-Related Disaster Risk Events in Togo: A Systematic Review

Togo is facing significant climate challenges that have profound consequences for its environment, economy, and population. This study provides an overview of various climate phenomena affecting Togo and highlights potential adaptation strategies. We used the inclusion and exclusion criteria (PRISMA) to search both French and English articles on climate change-related disaster risk events in Togo through Google Scholar, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), and PubMed databases using the keywords “Climate Change”, “Floods”, “Drought”, “Coastal erosion”, “High winds”, “Epidemy”, Heatwaves”, and “Air pollution”. Twenty-five articles from 2000-2023 were included in this study after applying different criteria. Droughts, floods, coastal erosion, food and crop productivity loss, heatwaves, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution, and high winds are among the climate phenomena discussed. These challenges are driven by climate change, altering precipitation patterns, increasing temperatures, and rising sea levels. Drought, floods, coastal erosion, loss of food and crop productivity, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution and heatwaves are the most climate risks experienced by Togo. Drought contributes to decreased plant cover, water scarcity, and changes in the water and energy balance. Floods cause property damage, health risks, and disruptions to livelihoods. Coastal erosion threatens coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Adaptation strategies include early warning systems, improved water management, sustainable agriculture, urban and health planning, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Drought-resistant crops, mosquito control, and clean energy adoption are essential.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education from Social Disciplinary Theoretical Perspectives

Disaster is a social phenomenon. The occurrence and impacts of disasters including the education sector can be studied through a social problem lens. This paper draws meaning and understanding of DRR education using the sociological disciplinary framework in a detailed qualitative case study of three schools as they responded to the devastating Gorakha earthquake in 2015 and other disasters in Nepal. This paper considers the three sub-disciplines of sociology: the sociology of disaster, the sociology of education and the sociology of education governance in a development context. These sub-disciplines are nested together to analyse social, political and historical factors and their relationships which are helpful to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the education sector in Nepal. These are the major areas to explore the disaster context and needs of context-specific education acts (hereafter DRR education) to minimise the potential risks of disasters. The article concludes that the social disciplinary framework is significantly useful to analyse DRR education provisions and implications of education governance to mobilise school in disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Beyond Defense: Proactive Approaches to Disaster Recovery and Threat Intelligence in Modern Enterprises

As cyber threats keep changing and business environments adapt, a comprehensive approach to disaster recovery involves more than just defensive measures. This research delves deep into the strategies required to respond to threats and anticipate and mitigate them proactively. Beginning with understanding the critical need for a layered defense and the intricacies of the attacker’s journey, the research offers insights into specialized defense techniques, emphasizing the importance of timely and strategic responses during incidents. Risk management is brought to the forefront, underscoring businesses’ need to adopt mature risk assessment practices and understand the potential risk impact areas. Additionally, the value of threat intelligence is explored, shedding light on the importance of active engagement within sharing communities and the vigilant observation of adversary motivations. “Beyond Defense: Proactive Approaches to Disaster Recovery and Threat Intelligence in Modern Enterprises” is a comprehensive guide for organizations aiming to fortify their cybersecurity posture, marrying best practices in proactive and reactive measures in the ever-challenging digital realm.

Characteristics of Hailstone Disaster and the Risk Zoning in Shijiazhuang

By using the hailstone disaster data,the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hailstone in Shijiazhuang,the relationship between the hailstone disaster and the weather system,the hailstone path were analyzed.Moreover,the risk zoning of hailstone disaster in every county(city) of Shijiazhuang was done according to the occurrence frequency of hailstone.The results showed that the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hailstone in Shijiazhuang were obvious,and there were 3 main paths.The zones where the paths passed were also the high risk areas of hailstone occurrence.The research provided the scientific guidance for the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and the defense of hailstone disaster.

Risk Assessment of Hail Disaster on Cotton——A Case Study in Anhui Province

[Objective] The aim was to reveal the pattern of hail disaster risk for cotton in Anhui Province. [Method] Based on database of risk evaluation on hail disaster for cotton in Anhui Province, statistical inference and comprehensive indices measurement were made use of for extraction of disastrous index of hail （H） and loss rate of cotton （L）. Hail vulnerability curves in four stages （seedling, bud, boll and boll opening stages） of cotton were fitted by Matlab and SPSS software. Risk evaluation on hail disaster of cotton in Anhui Province was conducted and the related map was drawn on basis of yearly model of loss rate （by hail disaster）, as follows： Sa=n∑i=1Si-a∏i=1Si=1-（1-Si） [Result] In Anhui Province, high risk area by hail concentrates in northeast regions and mountainous regions in west of Anhui, and lower risk area is distributed in middle and down streams of Yangtze River and mountainous area in south of Anhui. [Conclusion] The research explored evaluation methods on hail risks based on the limited information, and could provide references for risk evaluation on hail disaster in other regions.

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China

This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.

Prevalence and risk factors of depression among patients with perianal fistulizing Crohn’s disease

BACKGROUND Psychological distress,especially depression,associated with perianal fistulizing Crohn’s disease(PFCD)is widespread and refractory.However,there is a surprising paucity of studies to date that have sought to identify the prevalence and risk factors of depression associated with PFCD.AIM To estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms and investigate the depression-related risk factors in patients with PFCD.METHODS The study was conducted in the form of survey and clinical data collection via questionnaire and specialized medical staff.Depressive symptoms,life quality,and fatigue severity of patients with PFCD were assessed by Patient Health Questionnaire-9,Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patient Quality of Life Questionnaire(IBDQ),and Inflammatory Bowel Disease(IBD)Fatigue Patient Self-assessment Scale.The basic demographic information,overall disease features,perianal clinical information,and laboratory inflammation indicators were also gathered.Multivariate regression analysis was ultimately used to ascertain the risk factors of depression associated with PFCD.RESULTS A total of 123 patients with PFCD were involved,and 56.91%were suffering from depression.According to multivariate logistic regression analysis,Perianal Disease Activity Index(PDAI)score[odds ratio(OR)=0.69,95%confidence interval(CI):0.50 to 0.95],IBDQ score(OR=0.93,95%CI:0.88 to 0.97),modified Van Assche index(OR=1.24,95%CI:1.01 to 1.53),and IBD Fatigue score(OR=1.72,95%CI:1.23 to 2.42)were independent risk factors of depression-related prevalence among patients with PFCD(P<0.05).Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the increasing perianal modified Van Assche index(βvalue=0.166,95%CI:0.02 to 0.31)and decreasing IBDQ score(βvalue=-0.116,95%CI:-0.14 to-0.09)were independently associated with the severity of depression(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Depressive symptoms in PFCD patients have significantly high prevalence.PDAI score,modified Van Assche index,quality of life,and fatigue severity were the main independent risk factors.

Epidemiological Aspects of Obesity, Overweight and Cardiovascular Risk Factors at Associes in Semi-Urban Areas (Case of Sébikotane)

Introduction: Obesity and overweight are a public health problem. The general objective was to determine the epidemiological aspects of obesity, overweight and associated risk factors in a semi-urban environment. Patients and Methods: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted on November 28 and 29, 2023 in Sébikotane. It focused on volunteers for screening for chronic non-communicable diseases. Epidemiological and clinical data were evaluated. Results: One hundred and twenty-nine cases of obesity were recorded (28%). Two hundred and eighty-two cases were overweight or obese (61.3%). The mean age was 49.55 years, with a standard deviation of 12.41 years. The age group [40 - 49 years] was the most representative, with 85 cases (30.1%), and the majority were female, with 264 cases (93.6%). Primary education was the most common, with 75 cases (46.3%). Grade 1 obesity concerned ninety-seven cases (75.2%), and diabetes was present in thirty cases (23%). Hypertension was present in ninety-five cases (33.7%). Obesity was more marked in the age group [40 - 49 years] with 45 cases (36%). Conclusion: Obesity and overweight are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The development and implementation of a prevention and management program is essential.

Distribution, Mobility, and Health Risks Assessment of Trace Metals in River Sediments from Intense Agricultural Activity Areas in West Africa

The economy of West African countries is mainly based on agriculture. However, the trace metal(loid)s contamination status in rivers is relatively unknown in the region. In this work, 45 surface sediments collected from the Bandama, Comoé, and Bia Rivers in south and south eastern Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), were analyzed for total metal concentrations and chemical speciation. The results showed that the river sediments were considerably contaminated by Cd and moderately contaminated by As, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Significant spatial variations were observed among the stations but not between the rivers. Metals Cd and Cu were likely to cause more ecological risks. The speciation analysis unravelled that the metal(loid)s partitioned mainly in the residual fraction, with the potential mobile fraction varying from 14% to 28%. The study calls for establishment of strict policies relative to the application of fertilizers and agrochemicals and mining activities to protect the environment and human health risks.

Information Management in Disaster and Humanitarian Response: A Case in United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

To guarantee a unified response to disasters, humanitarian organizations work together via the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Although the OCHA has made great strides to improve its information management and increase the availability of accurate, real-time data for disaster and humanitarian response teams, significant gaps persist. There are inefficiencies in the emergency management of data at every stage of its lifecycle: collection, processing, analysis, distribution, storage, and retrieval. Disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management are the two main tenets of the United Nations’ worldwide plan for disaster management. Information systems are crucial because of the crucial roles they play in capturing, processing, and transmitting data. The management of information is seldom discussed in published works. The goal of this study is to employ qualitative research methods to provide insight by facilitating an expanded comprehension of relevant contexts, phenomena, and individual experiences. Humanitarian workers and OCHA staffers will take part in the research. The study subjects will be chosen using a random selection procedure. Online surveys with both closed- and open-ended questions will be used to compile the data. UN OCHA offers a structure for the handling of information via which all humanitarian actors may contribute to the overall response. This research will enable the UN Office for OCHA better gather, process, analyze, disseminate, store, and retrieve data in the event of a catastrophe or humanitarian crisis.

The use of UAVs for landslide disaster risk research and disaster risk management: a literature review

On a global scale,from 2005 to 2019,there were 275 high-magnitude,low-frequency disasters that involved 14,172 fatalities and four million affected people.Similar patterns have taken place during longer periods of time in recent decades.This paper aims to analyse the contribution of the international landslide research community to disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management in reference to the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs)in a literature review.The first section notes the relevance of disaster risk research contributions for the implementation of initiatives and strategies concerning disaster risk management.The second section highlights background information and current applications of drones in the field of hazards and risk.The methodology,which included a systematic peer review of journals in the ISI Web of Science and SCOPUS,was presented in the third section,where the results include analyses of the considered data.This study concludes that most current scholarly efforts remain rooted in hazards and post-disaster evaluation and response.Future landslide disaster risk research should be transdisciplinary in order to strengthen participation of the various relevant stakeholders in contributing to integrated disaster risk management at local,subnational,national,regional and global levels.

Risk Assessment of Disaster Chain: Experience from Wenchuan Earthquake-induced Landslides in China

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.

An international program on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction--a Belt and Road initiative (2016-2020)

Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) is a Chinese national strategy which calls for cooperative economic, political and cultural exchange at the global level along the ancient Silk Road. The overwhelming natural hazards located along the belt and road bring great challenges to the success of BRI. In this framework, a 5-year international program was launched to address issues related to hazards assessment and disaster risk reduction(DRR). The first workshop of this program was held in Beijing with international experts from over 15 countries. Risk conditions on Belt and Road Countries(BRCs) have been shared and science and technology advancements on DRR have been disseminated during the workshop. Under this program, six task forces have been setup to carry out collaborative research works and three prioritized study areas have been established. This workshop announced the launching of this program which involved partners from different countries including Pakistan, Nepal, Russia, Italy, United Kingdom, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan. The program adopted the objectives of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and was implemented to assess disaster risk in BRCs and to propose suitable measures for disaster control which can be appropriate both for an individual country and for specific sites. This paper deals with the outcomes of the workshop and points out opportunities for the near future international cooperation on this matter.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.

Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

Risk Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Induced by the Yushu Earthquake

The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.

Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: an initial overview on seeking pathways to global sustainability

As disasters cripple the world’s prospects for sustainable development, protecting the most vulnerable groups exposed to hazards is one of the main challenges facing humanity. Owing to the systemic nature of risk and the interactions and interdependencies between upland and lowland systems, healthy and productive mountain households and livelihoods are essential to global sustainability. This paper argues that, building on existing international frameworks, and integrated knowledge and praxis, the development of a global policy agenda should be established to build sustainable peace, sustainable security, and development.