In the world, most of the successes are results of longterm efforts. The reward of success is extremely high, but before that, a long-term investment process is required. People who are “myopic” only value short-ter...In the world, most of the successes are results of longterm efforts. The reward of success is extremely high, but before that, a long-term investment process is required. People who are “myopic” only value short-term rewards and are unwilling to make early-stage investments, so they hardly get the ultimate success and the corresponding high rewards. Similarly, for a reinforcement learning(RL) model with long-delay rewards, the discount rate determines the strength of agent’s “farsightedness”.In order to enable the trained agent to make a chain of correct choices and succeed finally, the feasible region of the discount rate is obtained through mathematical derivation in this paper firstly. It satisfies the “farsightedness” requirement of agent. Afterwards, in order to avoid the complicated problem of solving implicit equations in the process of choosing feasible solutions,a simple method is explored and verified by theoreti cal demonstration and mathematical experiments. Then, a series of RL experiments are designed and implemented to verify the validity of theory. Finally, the model is extended from the finite process to the infinite process. The validity of the extended model is verified by theories and experiments. The whole research not only reveals the significance of the discount rate, but also provides a theoretical basis as well as a practical method for the choice of discount rate in future researches.展开更多
Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution,China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment.In this context,as a signi...Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution,China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment.In this context,as a significant input of investment projects,discount rate requires a well-calibrated evaluation because new energy power investment projects are highly capital intensive.The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the discount rate of China’s new energy power industry.First,we use Moving Average to correct the parameters of capital asset pricing model(CAPM)and weighted average cost of capital,which extends the literature on the avoidance of CAPM noise information problem.Second,we study the industry-level annual discount rates of mainly China’s new energy power industries,including hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries for the period of 2014-2019.The results show that discount rates in China’s new energy power industries evolved differently between the years of 2014-2019 with average annual discount rates being 7.56%,5.83%,5.60%,and 8.64%,for the hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries,respectively.In 2019,the four annual discount rates were highest for the photovoltaic power industry(8.66%),followed by hydropower(7.17%),wind power(5.72%),and nuclear power industry(5.26%).Forecasting to 2020 from the 2019 evaluation base period,the discount rates are 6.37%,5.00%,6.57%,and 9.05%for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries,respectively.Under the different capital structures,their forecasts for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries in 2020 are,respectively,within[4.35%,9.24%],[3.92%,7.10%],[4.58%,10.40%],[5.46%,14.81%].We also discussed more details on capital structure and forecast period of discount rates for China’s new energy power industries.Our analysis shows that it is necessary to establish a new energy power industry database and steadily promote the implementation of policies.展开更多
exchange rate:汇率,外汇汇率,指一个国家的货币和另一个国家的货币的比价。中国人民银行每天公布人民币市场汇价。如:market Exchange Rates in RMB yuan set by the People’s Bank ofChina(September 4,1998)Currency Unit RateUS do...exchange rate:汇率,外汇汇率,指一个国家的货币和另一个国家的货币的比价。中国人民银行每天公布人民币市场汇价。如:market Exchange Rates in RMB yuan set by the People’s Bank ofChina(September 4,1998)Currency Unit RateUS dollar 100 828.00Japanese yen 100 6.0291German mark 100 478.展开更多
This paper has organized and summarized the economic analysis on climate change from five angles,namely,connotation of discount rate,identification of and dispute about discount rate,discounting way,impact of the disc...This paper has organized and summarized the economic analysis on climate change from five angles,namely,connotation of discount rate,identification of and dispute about discount rate,discounting way,impact of the discount rate,and the integrated evaluation model of climate change impact and the discount evaluation.As the climate change economic analysis shows,there is a major dispute about discount rate between the market school and the ethic school.Rate of discount largely relates to the present value of potential loss attributable to climate change,and then influences the selection of policies for adapting and slowing down climate change.In the past,the constant index discount was adopted as the main way.But with the full understanding of discount rate,the uncertainty of loss attributable to climate change has been considered in the discount.展开更多
When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a...When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a standard economic procedure.The popularity of this procedure is solely supported by its simplicity which assumes:(1)a perfect financial market over even 100 years,and(2)existence of a stable time preference between two consecutive periods for an individual consumer.An apparent deficiency of this approach is that the present value of life quality of future generations varies to a large extent along an arbitrarily chosen discount rate.As a matter of fact,the discount rate,which could reflect the time preference as2%or 5%,matters when we predict current strategies of environmental protection for future generations.Simply applying a discount rate to evaluate the quality of our future generation,without clarifying the actual production mechanism behind this,is almost to the same as ignoring the fact that all of the goods are produced through an actual production process and that environmental degradation reduces the efficiency of that process.The greatest concern for our future generations should not be given by an assumed discount rate,since the discount rate itself is determined by financial market conditions at certain points in time.展开更多
Agriculture plays a vital role in the growth and development of the High Plains Region of the United States. With the development and adoption of irrigation technology, this region was transformed into one of the most...Agriculture plays a vital role in the growth and development of the High Plains Region of the United States. With the development and adoption of irrigation technology, this region was transformed into one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world [1]. The primary source of irrigation in this region is the Ogallala Aquifer. Currently, water from the aquifer is being used at a much faster rate than natural recharge can occur, resulting in a high rate of depletion from this finite resource. Depletion of scarce water resources will have a significant economic impact on the long-term sustainability of the region. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact alternative prices and discount rates have on groundwater policy recommendations. Deterministic models of groundwater withdrawals were developed and used in order to analyze and evaluate the impact of high, average, and low crop prices in a status quo scenario as well as a policy scenario reducing irrigated acreage allocation. Furthermore, this study analyzes the effects and associated consequences of alternative discount rates on net and total revenue. As indicated by results of this study, alternative prices, costs, and discount rates utilized in a model have an effect on policy effectiveness.展开更多
“Low profit and high sales” is a strategy to increase sales volume by reducing the profit of unit goods, so that businesses can gain more profits. For flexible goods, price reduction can increase the total revenue, ...“Low profit and high sales” is a strategy to increase sales volume by reducing the profit of unit goods, so that businesses can gain more profits. For flexible goods, price reduction can increase the total revenue, but when the goods are lack of flexibility, price reduction will reduce the total revenue. In this paper, according to the sales data provided by a supermarket, we preprocess the data, establish appropriate indicators to measure the daily discount strength of the mall, and establish a mathematical model between the discount strength, sales and profit margin. Through these models, we found that meager profits do bring up sales, but too low discounts can also hurt total profits. In addition, when shopping malls implement discount promotions, they will also bring some negative effects, and we give some suggestions for this.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected...The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected value and a second-order differential equation for the Laplace transform of the expected value are derived. In addition, the paper will present the recursive algorithm for the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Finally, by the differential equation, the defective renewal equation and the explicit expression for the expected value are given in the interest-free case.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (717712167170120972001214)。
文摘In the world, most of the successes are results of longterm efforts. The reward of success is extremely high, but before that, a long-term investment process is required. People who are “myopic” only value short-term rewards and are unwilling to make early-stage investments, so they hardly get the ultimate success and the corresponding high rewards. Similarly, for a reinforcement learning(RL) model with long-delay rewards, the discount rate determines the strength of agent’s “farsightedness”.In order to enable the trained agent to make a chain of correct choices and succeed finally, the feasible region of the discount rate is obtained through mathematical derivation in this paper firstly. It satisfies the “farsightedness” requirement of agent. Afterwards, in order to avoid the complicated problem of solving implicit equations in the process of choosing feasible solutions,a simple method is explored and verified by theoreti cal demonstration and mathematical experiments. Then, a series of RL experiments are designed and implemented to verify the validity of theory. Finally, the model is extended from the finite process to the infinite process. The validity of the extended model is verified by theories and experiments. The whole research not only reveals the significance of the discount rate, but also provides a theoretical basis as well as a practical method for the choice of discount rate in future researches.
文摘Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution,China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment.In this context,as a significant input of investment projects,discount rate requires a well-calibrated evaluation because new energy power investment projects are highly capital intensive.The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the discount rate of China’s new energy power industry.First,we use Moving Average to correct the parameters of capital asset pricing model(CAPM)and weighted average cost of capital,which extends the literature on the avoidance of CAPM noise information problem.Second,we study the industry-level annual discount rates of mainly China’s new energy power industries,including hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries for the period of 2014-2019.The results show that discount rates in China’s new energy power industries evolved differently between the years of 2014-2019 with average annual discount rates being 7.56%,5.83%,5.60%,and 8.64%,for the hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries,respectively.In 2019,the four annual discount rates were highest for the photovoltaic power industry(8.66%),followed by hydropower(7.17%),wind power(5.72%),and nuclear power industry(5.26%).Forecasting to 2020 from the 2019 evaluation base period,the discount rates are 6.37%,5.00%,6.57%,and 9.05%for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries,respectively.Under the different capital structures,their forecasts for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries in 2020 are,respectively,within[4.35%,9.24%],[3.92%,7.10%],[4.58%,10.40%],[5.46%,14.81%].We also discussed more details on capital structure and forecast period of discount rates for China’s new energy power industries.Our analysis shows that it is necessary to establish a new energy power industry database and steadily promote the implementation of policies.
文摘exchange rate:汇率,外汇汇率,指一个国家的货币和另一个国家的货币的比价。中国人民银行每天公布人民币市场汇价。如:market Exchange Rates in RMB yuan set by the People’s Bank ofChina(September 4,1998)Currency Unit RateUS dollar 100 828.00Japanese yen 100 6.0291German mark 100 478.
基金supported by NSFC National Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71103111)MOST Special Project of Innovative Methodology (Grant No.2012IM010300)Twelfth Five-Year National Science and Technology Support Program (Grant No.2012BAC20B01)
文摘This paper has organized and summarized the economic analysis on climate change from five angles,namely,connotation of discount rate,identification of and dispute about discount rate,discounting way,impact of the discount rate,and the integrated evaluation model of climate change impact and the discount evaluation.As the climate change economic analysis shows,there is a major dispute about discount rate between the market school and the ethic school.Rate of discount largely relates to the present value of potential loss attributable to climate change,and then influences the selection of policies for adapting and slowing down climate change.In the past,the constant index discount was adopted as the main way.But with the full understanding of discount rate,the uncertainty of loss attributable to climate change has been considered in the discount.
基金supported by Grant-in-Aid for Asian CORE Program "Manufacturing and Environmental Management in East Asia" of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS)
文摘When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a standard economic procedure.The popularity of this procedure is solely supported by its simplicity which assumes:(1)a perfect financial market over even 100 years,and(2)existence of a stable time preference between two consecutive periods for an individual consumer.An apparent deficiency of this approach is that the present value of life quality of future generations varies to a large extent along an arbitrarily chosen discount rate.As a matter of fact,the discount rate,which could reflect the time preference as2%or 5%,matters when we predict current strategies of environmental protection for future generations.Simply applying a discount rate to evaluate the quality of our future generation,without clarifying the actual production mechanism behind this,is almost to the same as ignoring the fact that all of the goods are produced through an actual production process and that environmental degradation reduces the efficiency of that process.The greatest concern for our future generations should not be given by an assumed discount rate,since the discount rate itself is determined by financial market conditions at certain points in time.
文摘Agriculture plays a vital role in the growth and development of the High Plains Region of the United States. With the development and adoption of irrigation technology, this region was transformed into one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world [1]. The primary source of irrigation in this region is the Ogallala Aquifer. Currently, water from the aquifer is being used at a much faster rate than natural recharge can occur, resulting in a high rate of depletion from this finite resource. Depletion of scarce water resources will have a significant economic impact on the long-term sustainability of the region. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact alternative prices and discount rates have on groundwater policy recommendations. Deterministic models of groundwater withdrawals were developed and used in order to analyze and evaluate the impact of high, average, and low crop prices in a status quo scenario as well as a policy scenario reducing irrigated acreage allocation. Furthermore, this study analyzes the effects and associated consequences of alternative discount rates on net and total revenue. As indicated by results of this study, alternative prices, costs, and discount rates utilized in a model have an effect on policy effectiveness.
文摘“Low profit and high sales” is a strategy to increase sales volume by reducing the profit of unit goods, so that businesses can gain more profits. For flexible goods, price reduction can increase the total revenue, but when the goods are lack of flexibility, price reduction will reduce the total revenue. In this paper, according to the sales data provided by a supermarket, we preprocess the data, establish appropriate indicators to measure the daily discount strength of the mall, and establish a mathematical model between the discount strength, sales and profit margin. Through these models, we found that meager profits do bring up sales, but too low discounts can also hurt total profits. In addition, when shopping malls implement discount promotions, they will also bring some negative effects, and we give some suggestions for this.
基金supported by the National Natural science Foundation of china(70271069)
文摘The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected value and a second-order differential equation for the Laplace transform of the expected value are derived. In addition, the paper will present the recursive algorithm for the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Finally, by the differential equation, the defective renewal equation and the explicit expression for the expected value are given in the interest-free case.
