This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,wher...This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore proposed.Initially,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these slopes.Subsequently,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring slopes.The three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation peaks.The fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive accuracy.In conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.展开更多
Landslide deformation is affected by its geological conditions and many environmental factors.So it has the characteristics of dynamic,nonlinear and unstable,which makes the prediction of landslide displacement diffic...Landslide deformation is affected by its geological conditions and many environmental factors.So it has the characteristics of dynamic,nonlinear and unstable,which makes the prediction of landslide displacement difficult.In view of the above problems,this paper proposes a dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on the improvement of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(ICEEMDAN),approximate entropy(ApEn)and convolution long short-term memory(CNN-LSTM)neural network.Firstly,ICEEMDAN and Ap En are used to decompose the cumulative displacements into trend,periodic and random displacements.Then,the least square quintic polynomial function is used to fit the displacement of trend term,and the CNN-LSTM is used to predict the displacement of periodic term and random term.Finally,the displacement prediction results of trend term,periodic term and random term are superimposed to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction value.The proposed model has been verified in Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China.The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper can more effectively predict the displacement changes of landslides.As compared with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network,gated recurrent unit(GRU)network model and back propagation(BP)neural network,CNN-LSTM neural network had higher prediction accuracy in predicting the periodic displacement,with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)reduced by 3.621%,6.893% and 15.886% respectively,and the root mean square error(RMSE)reduced by 3.834 mm,3.945 mm and 7.422mm respectively.Conclusively,this model not only has high prediction accuracy but also is more stable,which can provide a new insight for practical landslide prevention and control engineering.展开更多
The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning.This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacem...The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning.This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacement prediction method that relies on graph deep learning and Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)positioning.First model the graph structure of the monitoring system based on the engineering positions of the GNSS monitoring points and build the adjacent matrix of graph nodes.Then construct the historical and predicted time series feature matrixes using the processed temporal data including GNSS displacement,rainfall,groundwater table and soil moisture content and the graph structure.Last introduce the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS(Graph for Time Series)model to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide displacement prediction which utilizes the temporal-spatial dependency of the monitoring system.This approach outperforms previous studies that only learned temporal features from a single monitoring point and maximally weighs the prediction performance and the priori graph of the monitoring system.The proposed method performs better than SVM,XGBoost,LSTM and DCRNN models in terms of RMSE(1.35 mm),MAE(1.14 mm)and MAPE(0.25)evaluation metrics,which is provided to be effective in future landslide failure early warning.展开更多
Landslide displacement prediction can enhance the efficacy of landslide monitoring system,and the prediction of the periodic displacement is particularly challenging.In the previous studies,static regression models(e....Landslide displacement prediction can enhance the efficacy of landslide monitoring system,and the prediction of the periodic displacement is particularly challenging.In the previous studies,static regression models(e.g.,support vector machine(SVM))were mostly used for predicting the periodic displacement.These models may have bad performances,when the dynamic features of landslide triggers are incorporated.This paper proposes a method for predicting the landslide displacement in a dynamic manner,based on the gated recurrent unit(GRU)neural network and complete ensemble empirical decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN).The CEEMDAN is used to decompose the training data,and the GRU is subsequently used for predicting the periodic displacement.Implementation procedures of the proposed method were illustrated by a case study in the Caojiatuo landslide area,and SVM was also adopted for the periodic displacement prediction.This case study shows that the predictors obtained by SVM are inaccurate,as the landslide displacement is in a pronouncedly step-wise manner.By contrast,the accuracy can be significantly improved using the dynamic predictive method.This paper reveals the significance of capturing the dynamic features of the inputs in the training process,when the machine learning models are adopted to predict the landslide displacement.展开更多
The influence of a deep excavation on existing shield tunnels nearby is a vital issue in tunnelling engineering.Whereas,there lacks robust methods to predict excavation-induced tunnel displacements.In this study,an au...The influence of a deep excavation on existing shield tunnels nearby is a vital issue in tunnelling engineering.Whereas,there lacks robust methods to predict excavation-induced tunnel displacements.In this study,an auto machine learning(AutoML)-based approach is proposed to precisely solve the issue.Seven input parameters are considered in the database covering two physical aspects,namely soil property,and spatial characteristics of the deep excavation.The 10-fold cross-validation method is employed to overcome the scarcity of data,and promote model’s robustness.Six genetic algorithm(GA)-ML models are established as well for comparison.The results indicated that the proposed AutoML model is a comprehensive model that integrates efficiency and robustness.Importance analysis reveals that the ratio of the average shear strength to the vertical effective stress E_(ur)/σ′_(v),the excavation depth H,and the excavation width B are the most influential variables for the displacements.Finally,the AutoML model is further validated by practical engineering.The prediction results are in a good agreement with monitoring data,signifying that our model can be applied in real projects.展开更多
An accurate landslide displacement prediction is an important part of landslide warning system. Aiming at the dynamic characteristics of landslide evolution and the shortcomings of traditional static prediction models...An accurate landslide displacement prediction is an important part of landslide warning system. Aiming at the dynamic characteristics of landslide evolution and the shortcomings of traditional static prediction models, this paper proposes a dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on singular spectrum analysis(SSA) and stack long short-term memory(SLSTM) network. The SSA is used to decompose the landslide accumulated displacement time series data into trend term and periodic term displacement subsequences. A cubic polynomial function is used to predict the trend term displacement subsequence, and the SLSTM neural network is used to predict the periodic term displacement subsequence. At the same time, the Bayesian optimization algorithm is used to determine that the SLSTM network input sequence length is 12 and the number of hidden layer nodes is 18. The SLSTM network is updated by adding predicted values to the training set to achieve dynamic displacement prediction. Finally, the accumulated landslide displacement is obtained by superimposing the predicted value of each displacement subsequence. The proposed model was verified on the Xintan landslide in Hubei Province, China. The results show that when predicting the displacement of the periodic term, the SLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy than the support vector machine(SVM) and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA). The mean relative error(MRE) is reduced by 4.099% and 3.548% respectively, while the root mean square error(RMSE) is reduced by 5.830 mm and 3.854 mm respectively. It is concluded that the SLSTM network model can better simulate the dynamic characteristics of landslides.展开更多
A predictive search algorithm to estimate the size and direction of displacement vectors was presented.The algorithm decreased the time of calculating the displacement of each pixel.In addition,the updating reference ...A predictive search algorithm to estimate the size and direction of displacement vectors was presented.The algorithm decreased the time of calculating the displacement of each pixel.In addition,the updating reference image scheme was used to update the reference image and to decrease the computation time when the displacement was larger than a certain number.In this way,the search range and computational complexity were cut down,and less EMS memory was occupied.The capability of proposed search algorithm was then verified by the results of both computer simulation and experiments.The results showed that the algorithm could improve the efficiency of correlation method and satisfy the accuracy requirement for practical displacement measuring.展开更多
Landslides,seriously threatening human lives and environmental safety,have become some of the most catastrophic natural disasters in hilly and mountainous areas worldwide.Hence,it is necessary to forecast landslide de...Landslides,seriously threatening human lives and environmental safety,have become some of the most catastrophic natural disasters in hilly and mountainous areas worldwide.Hence,it is necessary to forecast landslide deformation for landslide risk reduction.This paper presents a method of predicting landslide displacement,i.e.,the improved multi-factor Kalman filter(KF)algorithm.The developed model has two advantages over the traditional KF approach.First,it considers multiple external environmental factors(e.g.,rainfall),which are the main triggering factors that may induce slope failure.Second,the model includes random disturbances of triggers.The proposed model was constructed using a time series which consists of over 16-month of data on landslide movement and precipitation collected from the Miaodian loess landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Shaanxi province,China.Model validation was performed by predicting movements for periods of up to 7 months in the future.The performance of the developed model was compared with that of the improved single-factor KF,multi-factor KF,multi-factor radial basis function,and multi-factor support vector regression approaches.The results show that the improved multi-factor KF method outperforms the other models and that the predictive capability can be improved by considering random disturbances of triggers.展开更多
Empirical models provide a practical way to estimate the displacements induced by excavations.However,there are uncertainties associated with the predictions of empirical models owing to:(a)the imperfect knowledge of ...Empirical models provide a practical way to estimate the displacements induced by excavations.However,there are uncertainties associated with the predictions of empirical models owing to:(a)the imperfect knowledge of the model and(b)the uncertainties of the input variables.The uncertainties of these models can be characterized by a bias factor which is defined as the ratio of the actual displacement to the predicted displacement.The bias factors associated with the C&O method and the KJHH model are evaluated using the Bayesian method and a database of 71 excavations in Shanghai.To improve the predictions of the maximum displacement,an adaptive algorithm is proposed using field performance data.The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by an example in which excavation-induced displacements are generated by finite element method in normally consolidated clays.The example shows that the developed algorithm can significantly improve the predictions by incorporating the field performance data.展开更多
Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region,China,undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed,quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir level.This behavior is consistent w...Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region,China,undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed,quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir level.This behavior is consistent with motion initiating when the reservoir water level falls below a critical level that is intrinsic to each landslide,with the subsequent displacement rate of the landslide being proportional to the water depth below that critical level.Most motion terminates when the water level rises back above the critical level,so the annual step size is the time integral of the instantaneous displacement rate.These responses are incorporated into a differential equation that is easily calibrated with monitoring data,allowing prediction of landslide movement from actual or anticipated reservoir level changes.Model successes include(1)initiation and termination of the annual sliding steps at the critical reservoir level,producing a series of steps;(2)prediction of variable step size,year to year;and(3)approximate prediction of the shape and size of each annual step.Annual rainfall correlates poorly with step size,probably because its effect on groundwater levels is dwarfed by the 30 m annual variations in the level of the Three Gorges Reservoir.Viscous landslide behavior is suggested.展开更多
基金funded by the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20211364)the Science and Technology Talent Program of Ministry of Natural Resources of China(grant number 121106000000180039–2201)。
文摘This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore proposed.Initially,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these slopes.Subsequently,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring slopes.The three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation peaks.The fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive accuracy.In conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.
基金funded by the technology innovation guidance special project of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2020CGXNX009)the supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62203344)+1 种基金the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Education serves local special projects(Grant No.22JC036)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2022JM-322)。
文摘Landslide deformation is affected by its geological conditions and many environmental factors.So it has the characteristics of dynamic,nonlinear and unstable,which makes the prediction of landslide displacement difficult.In view of the above problems,this paper proposes a dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on the improvement of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(ICEEMDAN),approximate entropy(ApEn)and convolution long short-term memory(CNN-LSTM)neural network.Firstly,ICEEMDAN and Ap En are used to decompose the cumulative displacements into trend,periodic and random displacements.Then,the least square quintic polynomial function is used to fit the displacement of trend term,and the CNN-LSTM is used to predict the displacement of periodic term and random term.Finally,the displacement prediction results of trend term,periodic term and random term are superimposed to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction value.The proposed model has been verified in Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China.The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper can more effectively predict the displacement changes of landslides.As compared with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network,gated recurrent unit(GRU)network model and back propagation(BP)neural network,CNN-LSTM neural network had higher prediction accuracy in predicting the periodic displacement,with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)reduced by 3.621%,6.893% and 15.886% respectively,and the root mean square error(RMSE)reduced by 3.834 mm,3.945 mm and 7.422mm respectively.Conclusively,this model not only has high prediction accuracy but also is more stable,which can provide a new insight for practical landslide prevention and control engineering.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41902240).
文摘The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning.This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacement prediction method that relies on graph deep learning and Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)positioning.First model the graph structure of the monitoring system based on the engineering positions of the GNSS monitoring points and build the adjacent matrix of graph nodes.Then construct the historical and predicted time series feature matrixes using the processed temporal data including GNSS displacement,rainfall,groundwater table and soil moisture content and the graph structure.Last introduce the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS(Graph for Time Series)model to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide displacement prediction which utilizes the temporal-spatial dependency of the monitoring system.This approach outperforms previous studies that only learned temporal features from a single monitoring point and maximally weighs the prediction performance and the priori graph of the monitoring system.The proposed method performs better than SVM,XGBoost,LSTM and DCRNN models in terms of RMSE(1.35 mm),MAE(1.14 mm)and MAPE(0.25)evaluation metrics,which is provided to be effective in future landslide failure early warning.
基金The authors appreciate the financial support provided by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41807294)This study was also financially supported by China Geological Survey Project(Nos.DD20190716 and 0001212020CC60002)。
文摘Landslide displacement prediction can enhance the efficacy of landslide monitoring system,and the prediction of the periodic displacement is particularly challenging.In the previous studies,static regression models(e.g.,support vector machine(SVM))were mostly used for predicting the periodic displacement.These models may have bad performances,when the dynamic features of landslide triggers are incorporated.This paper proposes a method for predicting the landslide displacement in a dynamic manner,based on the gated recurrent unit(GRU)neural network and complete ensemble empirical decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN).The CEEMDAN is used to decompose the training data,and the GRU is subsequently used for predicting the periodic displacement.Implementation procedures of the proposed method were illustrated by a case study in the Caojiatuo landslide area,and SVM was also adopted for the periodic displacement prediction.This case study shows that the predictors obtained by SVM are inaccurate,as the landslide displacement is in a pronouncedly step-wise manner.By contrast,the accuracy can be significantly improved using the dynamic predictive method.This paper reveals the significance of capturing the dynamic features of the inputs in the training process,when the machine learning models are adopted to predict the landslide displacement.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51978517,52090082,and 52108381)Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.2019-01-07-00-07-456 E00051)Shanghai Science and Technology Committee Program(Grant Nos.21DZ1200601 and 20DZ1201404).
文摘The influence of a deep excavation on existing shield tunnels nearby is a vital issue in tunnelling engineering.Whereas,there lacks robust methods to predict excavation-induced tunnel displacements.In this study,an auto machine learning(AutoML)-based approach is proposed to precisely solve the issue.Seven input parameters are considered in the database covering two physical aspects,namely soil property,and spatial characteristics of the deep excavation.The 10-fold cross-validation method is employed to overcome the scarcity of data,and promote model’s robustness.Six genetic algorithm(GA)-ML models are established as well for comparison.The results indicated that the proposed AutoML model is a comprehensive model that integrates efficiency and robustness.Importance analysis reveals that the ratio of the average shear strength to the vertical effective stress E_(ur)/σ′_(v),the excavation depth H,and the excavation width B are the most influential variables for the displacements.Finally,the AutoML model is further validated by practical engineering.The prediction results are in a good agreement with monitoring data,signifying that our model can be applied in real projects.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province under Grant 2019JQ206in part by the Science and Technology Department of Shaanxi Province under Grant 2020CGXNG-009in part by the Education Department of Shaanxi Province under Grant 17JK0346。
文摘An accurate landslide displacement prediction is an important part of landslide warning system. Aiming at the dynamic characteristics of landslide evolution and the shortcomings of traditional static prediction models, this paper proposes a dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on singular spectrum analysis(SSA) and stack long short-term memory(SLSTM) network. The SSA is used to decompose the landslide accumulated displacement time series data into trend term and periodic term displacement subsequences. A cubic polynomial function is used to predict the trend term displacement subsequence, and the SLSTM neural network is used to predict the periodic term displacement subsequence. At the same time, the Bayesian optimization algorithm is used to determine that the SLSTM network input sequence length is 12 and the number of hidden layer nodes is 18. The SLSTM network is updated by adding predicted values to the training set to achieve dynamic displacement prediction. Finally, the accumulated landslide displacement is obtained by superimposing the predicted value of each displacement subsequence. The proposed model was verified on the Xintan landslide in Hubei Province, China. The results show that when predicting the displacement of the periodic term, the SLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy than the support vector machine(SVM) and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA). The mean relative error(MRE) is reduced by 4.099% and 3.548% respectively, while the root mean square error(RMSE) is reduced by 5.830 mm and 3.854 mm respectively. It is concluded that the SLSTM network model can better simulate the dynamic characteristics of landslides.
文摘A predictive search algorithm to estimate the size and direction of displacement vectors was presented.The algorithm decreased the time of calculating the displacement of each pixel.In addition,the updating reference image scheme was used to update the reference image and to decrease the computation time when the displacement was larger than a certain number.In this way,the search range and computational complexity were cut down,and less EMS memory was occupied.The capability of proposed search algorithm was then verified by the results of both computer simulation and experiments.The results showed that the algorithm could improve the efficiency of correlation method and satisfy the accuracy requirement for practical displacement measuring.
基金The authors are grateful to surveyors who work hardaround the Jingyang in a challenging environment to obtain Monitoring data.This study is also supported.by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41731066,41674001,41790445)the Natural ScienceBasic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(No.2019JM-202)+2 种基金the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Universities(No.CHD300102268204)the Fundamental Research Funds for the CentralUniversities(No.CHD300102269104)the Natural Science Foundation inGansu Province of China(No.2017GS10845).
文摘Landslides,seriously threatening human lives and environmental safety,have become some of the most catastrophic natural disasters in hilly and mountainous areas worldwide.Hence,it is necessary to forecast landslide deformation for landslide risk reduction.This paper presents a method of predicting landslide displacement,i.e.,the improved multi-factor Kalman filter(KF)algorithm.The developed model has two advantages over the traditional KF approach.First,it considers multiple external environmental factors(e.g.,rainfall),which are the main triggering factors that may induce slope failure.Second,the model includes random disturbances of triggers.The proposed model was constructed using a time series which consists of over 16-month of data on landslide movement and precipitation collected from the Miaodian loess landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Shaanxi province,China.Model validation was performed by predicting movements for periods of up to 7 months in the future.The performance of the developed model was compared with that of the improved single-factor KF,multi-factor KF,multi-factor radial basis function,and multi-factor support vector regression approaches.The results show that the improved multi-factor KF method outperforms the other models and that the predictive capability can be improved by considering random disturbances of triggers.
文摘Empirical models provide a practical way to estimate the displacements induced by excavations.However,there are uncertainties associated with the predictions of empirical models owing to:(a)the imperfect knowledge of the model and(b)the uncertainties of the input variables.The uncertainties of these models can be characterized by a bias factor which is defined as the ratio of the actual displacement to the predicted displacement.The bias factors associated with the C&O method and the KJHH model are evaluated using the Bayesian method and a database of 71 excavations in Shanghai.To improve the predictions of the maximum displacement,an adaptive algorithm is proposed using field performance data.The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by an example in which excavation-induced displacements are generated by finite element method in normally consolidated clays.The example shows that the developed algorithm can significantly improve the predictions by incorporating the field performance data.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2018YFC1507200,2017YFC1501304)the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars of China(No.41922055)。
文摘Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region,China,undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed,quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir level.This behavior is consistent with motion initiating when the reservoir water level falls below a critical level that is intrinsic to each landslide,with the subsequent displacement rate of the landslide being proportional to the water depth below that critical level.Most motion terminates when the water level rises back above the critical level,so the annual step size is the time integral of the instantaneous displacement rate.These responses are incorporated into a differential equation that is easily calibrated with monitoring data,allowing prediction of landslide movement from actual or anticipated reservoir level changes.Model successes include(1)initiation and termination of the annual sliding steps at the critical reservoir level,producing a series of steps;(2)prediction of variable step size,year to year;and(3)approximate prediction of the shape and size of each annual step.Annual rainfall correlates poorly with step size,probably because its effect on groundwater levels is dwarfed by the 30 m annual variations in the level of the Three Gorges Reservoir.Viscous landslide behavior is suggested.