目的探索隔日温差(temperature changes between neighboring days,TCN)对人群死亡的影响。方法收集我国21个地区2014-2018年的每日气象因素数据、空气污染物数据和死因统计数据。运用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear mo...目的探索隔日温差(temperature changes between neighboring days,TCN)对人群死亡的影响。方法收集我国21个地区2014-2018年的每日气象因素数据、空气污染物数据和死因统计数据。运用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)和多元Meta分析,估计不同季节的TCN对每日总死亡人数的影响。结果研究显示,不同季节的TCN对每日总死亡人数均有显著影响,且阈值不同。冷季时,P_(95)TCN(升温)的14天累积相对危险度(CRR)为0.868(_(95)%CI:0.794,0.948),而P_(5)(降温)对每日总死亡人数的影响没有统计学意义。暖季时,P_(95)TCN(升温)的7天CRR为1.078(_(95)%CI:1.009,1.152),而P_(5)(降温)的7天CRR为0.929(_(95)%CI:0.889,0.971)。冷季时,患有呼吸系统疾病人群更容易受到温度变化的不利影响。暖季时,循环系统疾病人群、女性和≥65岁人群对温度变化更为敏感。南北区域的分析显示,北方城市的人群对P_(95)TCN的影响更加敏感。结论不同季节的极端TCN与人群死亡的风险存在关联,冷季时升温可降低人群死亡风险,而暖季时升温可增加人群死亡风险,降温可降低人群死亡风险。健康促进策略应该考虑相邻两天之间的温度变化对人群死亡影响。展开更多
Background:Aedes albopictus is among the 100 most invasive species worldwide and poses a major risk to public health.Photoperiodic diapause provides a crucial ecological basis for the adaptation of this species to adv...Background:Aedes albopictus is among the 100 most invasive species worldwide and poses a major risk to public health.Photoperiodic diapause provides a crucial ecological basis for the adaptation of this species to adverse environments.Ae.albopictus is the vital vector transmitting dengue virus in Guangzhou,but its diapause activities herein remain obscure.Methods:In the laboratory,yeast powder and food slurry were compared for a proper diapause determination method,and the critical photoperiod(CPP)was tested at illumination times of 11,11.5,12,12.5,13,and 13.5 h.A 4-parameter logistic(4PL)regression model was selected to estimate the CPP.In the field,the seasonal dynamics of the Ae.albopictus population,egg diapause,and hatching of overwintering eggs were investigated monthly,weekly,and daily,respectively.A distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to assess the associations of diapause with meteorological factors.Results:In the laboratory,both the wild population and the Foshan strain of Ae.albopictus were induced to diapause at an incidence greater than 80%,and no significant difference(P>0.1)was observed between the two methods for identifying diapause.The CPP of this population was estimated to be 12.312 h of light.In the field,all of the indexes of the wild population were at the lowest levels from December to February,and the Route Index was the first to increase in March.Diapause incidence displayed pronounced seasonal dynamics.It was estimated that the day lengths of 12.111 h at week2016,43 and 12.373 h at week2017,41 contributed to diapause in 50%of the eggs.Day length was estimated to be the main meteorological factor related to diapause.Conclusions:Photoperiodic diapause of Ae.albopictus in Guangzhou of China was confirmed and comprehensively elucidated in both the laboratory and the field.Diapause eggs are the main form for overwintering and begin to hatch in large quantities in March in Guangzhou.Furthermore,this study also established an optimized investigation system and statistical models for the study of Ae.albopictus diapause.These findings will contribute to the prevention and control of Ae.albopictus and mosquito-borne diseases.展开更多
Background:Hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade.There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence,and understanding ...Background:Hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade.There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence,and understanding the mechanisms can help prevent and control HFMD.Methods:HFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Minhang District,Shanghai were obtained for the period between 2009 and 2015.Distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs)were utilized to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence after adjusting for potential confounders of long time trend,weekdays and holidays.Results:There was a non-linear relationship between temperature and HFMD incidence,the RR of 5th percentile compared to the median is 0.836(95%CI:0.671-1.042)and the RR of 95th percentile is 2.225(95%CI:1.774-2.792),and the effect of temperature varied across age groups.HFMD incidence increased with increasing average relative humidity(%)(RR=1.009,95%CI:1.005-1.015)and wind speed(m/s)(RR=1.197,95%CI:1.118-1.282),and with decreasing daily rainfall(mm)(RR=0.992,95%CI:0.987-0.997)and sunshine hours(h)(RR=0.966,95%CI:0.951-0.980).Conclusions:There were significant relationships between meteorological factors and childhood HFMD incidence in Minhang District,Shanghai.This information can help local health agencies develop strategies for the control and prevention of HFMD under specific climatic conditions.展开更多
Background Tuberculosis(TB)remains a pressing public health issue,posing a significant threat to individuals'well-being and lives.This study delves into the TB incidence in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,aiming...Background Tuberculosis(TB)remains a pressing public health issue,posing a significant threat to individuals'well-being and lives.This study delves into the TB incidence in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics and explore macro-level factors to enhance control and prevention.Methods TB incidence data in Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2021 were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System(NNDRS).A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was constructed to evaluate the lag and non-linearity of daily average temperature(℃,Atemp),average relative humidity(%,ARH),average wind speed(m/s,AWS),sunshine duration(h,SD)and precipitation(mm,PRE)on the TB incidence.A spatial panel data model was used to assess the impact of demographic,medical and health resource,and economic factors on TB incidence.Results A total of 6,587,439 TB cases were reported in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,with an average annual incidence rate of 59.17/100,000.The TB incidence decreased from 67.05/100,000 in 2014 to 46.40/100,000 in 2021,notably declining from 2018 to 2021(APC=-8.87%,95%CI:-11.97,-6.85%).TB incidence rates were higher among males,farmers,and individuals aged 65 years and older.Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a significant cluster in Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Xizang from March 2017 to June 2019(RR=3.94,P<0.001).From 2014 to 2021,the proportion of etiologically confirmed cases increased from 31.31%to 56.98%,and the time interval from TB onset to diagnosis shortened from 26 days(IQR:10-56 days)to 19 days(IQR:7-44 days).Specific meteorological conditions,including low temperature(<16.69℃),high relative humidity(>71.73%),low sunshine duration(<6.18 h)increased the risk of TB incidence,while extreme low wind speed(<2.79 m/s)decreased the risk.The spatial Durbin model showed positive associations between TB incidence rates and sex ratio(β=1.98),number of beds in medical and health institutions per 10,000 population(β=0.90),and total health expenses(β=0.55).There were negative associations between TB incidence rates and population(β=-1.14),population density(β=-0.19),urbanization rate(β=-0.62),number of medical and health institutions(β=-0.23),and number of health technicians per 10,000 population(β=-0.70).Conclusions Significant progress has been made in TB control and prevention in China,but challenges persist among some populations and areas.Varied relationships were observed between TB incidence and factors from meteorological,demographic,medical and health resource,and economic aspects.These findings underscore the importance of ongoing efforts to strengthen TB control and implement digital/intelligent surveillance for early risk detection and comprehensive interventions.展开更多
Background:Light at night(LAN)has become a concern in interdisciplinary research in recent years.This global interdisciplinary study aimed to explore the exposure-lag-response association between LAN exposure and lung...Background:Light at night(LAN)has become a concern in interdisciplinary research in recent years.This global interdisciplinary study aimed to explore the exposure-lag-response association between LAN exposure and lung cancer incidence.Methods:LAN data were obtained from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System.Data of lung cancer incidence,socio-demographic index,and smoking prevalence of populations in 201 countries/territories from 1992 to 2018 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study.Spearman correlation tests and population-weighted linear regression analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between LAN exposure and lung cancer incidence.A distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to assess the exposure-lag effects of LAN exposure on lung cancer incidence.Results:The Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.286-0.355 and the population-weighted linear regression correlation coefficients were 0.361-0.527.After adjustment for socio-demographic index and smoking preva-lence,the Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.264-0.357 and the population-weighted linear regression correlation coefficients were 0.346-0.497.In the DLNM,the maximum relative risk was 1.04(1.02-1.06)at LAN exposure of 8.6 with a 2.6-year lag time.After adjustment for socio-demographic index and smoking prevalence,the maximum relative risk was 1.05(1.02-1.07)at LAN exposure of 8.6 with a 2.4-year lag time.Conclusion:High LAN exposure was associated with increased lung cancer incidence,and this effect had a specific lag period.Compared with traditional individual-level studies,this group-level study provides a novel paradigm of effective,efficient,and scalable screening for risk factors.展开更多
文摘目的探索隔日温差(temperature changes between neighboring days,TCN)对人群死亡的影响。方法收集我国21个地区2014-2018年的每日气象因素数据、空气污染物数据和死因统计数据。运用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)和多元Meta分析,估计不同季节的TCN对每日总死亡人数的影响。结果研究显示,不同季节的TCN对每日总死亡人数均有显著影响,且阈值不同。冷季时,P_(95)TCN(升温)的14天累积相对危险度(CRR)为0.868(_(95)%CI:0.794,0.948),而P_(5)(降温)对每日总死亡人数的影响没有统计学意义。暖季时,P_(95)TCN(升温)的7天CRR为1.078(_(95)%CI:1.009,1.152),而P_(5)(降温)的7天CRR为0.929(_(95)%CI:0.889,0.971)。冷季时,患有呼吸系统疾病人群更容易受到温度变化的不利影响。暖季时,循环系统疾病人群、女性和≥65岁人群对温度变化更为敏感。南北区域的分析显示,北方城市的人群对P_(95)TCN的影响更加敏感。结论不同季节的极端TCN与人群死亡的风险存在关联,冷季时升温可降低人群死亡风险,而暖季时升温可增加人群死亡风险,降温可降低人群死亡风险。健康促进策略应该考虑相邻两天之间的温度变化对人群死亡影响。
基金This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFC1200500)the Guangzhou Synergy Innovation Key Program for Health(201508020263)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province of China(2016A020251001)the Guangzhou International Science and Technology Cooperation Program(2012 J5100026).
文摘Background:Aedes albopictus is among the 100 most invasive species worldwide and poses a major risk to public health.Photoperiodic diapause provides a crucial ecological basis for the adaptation of this species to adverse environments.Ae.albopictus is the vital vector transmitting dengue virus in Guangzhou,but its diapause activities herein remain obscure.Methods:In the laboratory,yeast powder and food slurry were compared for a proper diapause determination method,and the critical photoperiod(CPP)was tested at illumination times of 11,11.5,12,12.5,13,and 13.5 h.A 4-parameter logistic(4PL)regression model was selected to estimate the CPP.In the field,the seasonal dynamics of the Ae.albopictus population,egg diapause,and hatching of overwintering eggs were investigated monthly,weekly,and daily,respectively.A distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to assess the associations of diapause with meteorological factors.Results:In the laboratory,both the wild population and the Foshan strain of Ae.albopictus were induced to diapause at an incidence greater than 80%,and no significant difference(P>0.1)was observed between the two methods for identifying diapause.The CPP of this population was estimated to be 12.312 h of light.In the field,all of the indexes of the wild population were at the lowest levels from December to February,and the Route Index was the first to increase in March.Diapause incidence displayed pronounced seasonal dynamics.It was estimated that the day lengths of 12.111 h at week2016,43 and 12.373 h at week2017,41 contributed to diapause in 50%of the eggs.Day length was estimated to be the main meteorological factor related to diapause.Conclusions:Photoperiodic diapause of Ae.albopictus in Guangzhou of China was confirmed and comprehensively elucidated in both the laboratory and the field.Diapause eggs are the main form for overwintering and begin to hatch in large quantities in March in Guangzhou.Furthermore,this study also established an optimized investigation system and statistical models for the study of Ae.albopictus diapause.These findings will contribute to the prevention and control of Ae.albopictus and mosquito-borne diseases.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 81673239)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(grant number 81325017)+1 种基金Chang Jiang Scholars Program(grant number T2014089)the Fourth Round of Three-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai,China(grant numbers 15GWZK0202,15GWZK0101).
文摘Background:Hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade.There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence,and understanding the mechanisms can help prevent and control HFMD.Methods:HFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Minhang District,Shanghai were obtained for the period between 2009 and 2015.Distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs)were utilized to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence after adjusting for potential confounders of long time trend,weekdays and holidays.Results:There was a non-linear relationship between temperature and HFMD incidence,the RR of 5th percentile compared to the median is 0.836(95%CI:0.671-1.042)and the RR of 95th percentile is 2.225(95%CI:1.774-2.792),and the effect of temperature varied across age groups.HFMD incidence increased with increasing average relative humidity(%)(RR=1.009,95%CI:1.005-1.015)and wind speed(m/s)(RR=1.197,95%CI:1.118-1.282),and with decreasing daily rainfall(mm)(RR=0.992,95%CI:0.987-0.997)and sunshine hours(h)(RR=0.966,95%CI:0.951-0.980).Conclusions:There were significant relationships between meteorological factors and childhood HFMD incidence in Minhang District,Shanghai.This information can help local health agencies develop strategies for the control and prevention of HFMD under specific climatic conditions.
基金funded by grants from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(102393220020010000017)
文摘Background Tuberculosis(TB)remains a pressing public health issue,posing a significant threat to individuals'well-being and lives.This study delves into the TB incidence in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics and explore macro-level factors to enhance control and prevention.Methods TB incidence data in Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2021 were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System(NNDRS).A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was constructed to evaluate the lag and non-linearity of daily average temperature(℃,Atemp),average relative humidity(%,ARH),average wind speed(m/s,AWS),sunshine duration(h,SD)and precipitation(mm,PRE)on the TB incidence.A spatial panel data model was used to assess the impact of demographic,medical and health resource,and economic factors on TB incidence.Results A total of 6,587,439 TB cases were reported in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,with an average annual incidence rate of 59.17/100,000.The TB incidence decreased from 67.05/100,000 in 2014 to 46.40/100,000 in 2021,notably declining from 2018 to 2021(APC=-8.87%,95%CI:-11.97,-6.85%).TB incidence rates were higher among males,farmers,and individuals aged 65 years and older.Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a significant cluster in Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Xizang from March 2017 to June 2019(RR=3.94,P<0.001).From 2014 to 2021,the proportion of etiologically confirmed cases increased from 31.31%to 56.98%,and the time interval from TB onset to diagnosis shortened from 26 days(IQR:10-56 days)to 19 days(IQR:7-44 days).Specific meteorological conditions,including low temperature(<16.69℃),high relative humidity(>71.73%),low sunshine duration(<6.18 h)increased the risk of TB incidence,while extreme low wind speed(<2.79 m/s)decreased the risk.The spatial Durbin model showed positive associations between TB incidence rates and sex ratio(β=1.98),number of beds in medical and health institutions per 10,000 population(β=0.90),and total health expenses(β=0.55).There were negative associations between TB incidence rates and population(β=-1.14),population density(β=-0.19),urbanization rate(β=-0.62),number of medical and health institutions(β=-0.23),and number of health technicians per 10,000 population(β=-0.70).Conclusions Significant progress has been made in TB control and prevention in China,but challenges persist among some populations and areas.Varied relationships were observed between TB incidence and factors from meteorological,demographic,medical and health resource,and economic aspects.These findings underscore the importance of ongoing efforts to strengthen TB control and implement digital/intelligent surveillance for early risk detection and comprehensive interventions.
文摘Background:Light at night(LAN)has become a concern in interdisciplinary research in recent years.This global interdisciplinary study aimed to explore the exposure-lag-response association between LAN exposure and lung cancer incidence.Methods:LAN data were obtained from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System.Data of lung cancer incidence,socio-demographic index,and smoking prevalence of populations in 201 countries/territories from 1992 to 2018 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study.Spearman correlation tests and population-weighted linear regression analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between LAN exposure and lung cancer incidence.A distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to assess the exposure-lag effects of LAN exposure on lung cancer incidence.Results:The Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.286-0.355 and the population-weighted linear regression correlation coefficients were 0.361-0.527.After adjustment for socio-demographic index and smoking preva-lence,the Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.264-0.357 and the population-weighted linear regression correlation coefficients were 0.346-0.497.In the DLNM,the maximum relative risk was 1.04(1.02-1.06)at LAN exposure of 8.6 with a 2.6-year lag time.After adjustment for socio-demographic index and smoking prevalence,the maximum relative risk was 1.05(1.02-1.07)at LAN exposure of 8.6 with a 2.4-year lag time.Conclusion:High LAN exposure was associated with increased lung cancer incidence,and this effect had a specific lag period.Compared with traditional individual-level studies,this group-level study provides a novel paradigm of effective,efficient,and scalable screening for risk factors.
